Stuck in Subprime? Examining the Barriers to Refinancing Mortgage Debt

Despite falling interest rates and federal policy intervention, many borrowers who could financially gain from refinancing have not done so. We investigate the rates at which, relative to prime borrowers, subprime borrowers seek and take out refinance loans, conditional on not experiencing mortgage default. We find that starting in 2009, subprime borrowers are about half as likely as prime borrowers to refinance, although they still shop for mortgage credit, indicating their interest in refinancing. This disparity is driven in part by the tightened credit environment postfinancial crisis, and the fact that many subprime borrowers were ineligible for the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). In addition, we find that refinance rates have been significantly lower for black and Hispanic borrowers, even after controlling for borrower credit status. We argue that these barriers to refinancing for subprime borrowers have long-term implications for social stratification and wealth building.     

Evidence and Actions on Mortgage Market Disparities: Research,Fair Lending Enforcement,and Consumer Protection

ABSTRACT

In this article, we present an overview of the research on discrimination in mortgage underwriting and pricing, the experiences of minority borrowers both prior to and during the financial crisis, and federal efforts to mitigate foreclosures during the crisis. We next discuss the history of legal cases alleging disparate treatment of minority borrowers, and recent cases alleging disparate impact in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Inclusive Communities decision. Using these discussions as a background, we examine and discuss mortgage regulations issued by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau following the financial crisis, describe recent developments in the FinTech industry and explore the implications for fair lending policy and minority borrowers more generally. Finally, we draw conclusions and make recommendations for improving the mortgage market outcomes of minority borrowers and increasing minority borrowers’ access to credit.     

Racial Dynamics of Subprime Mortgage Lending at the Peak

Subprime mortgage lending in the early 2000s was a leading cause of the Great Recession. From 2003 to 2006, subprime loans jumped from 7.6% of the mortgage market to 20.1%, with black and Latino borrowers receiving a disproportionate share. This article leveraged the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data and multinomial regression to model home-purchase mortgage lending in 2006, the peak of the housing boom. The findings expose a complicated story of race and income. Consistent with previous research, blacks and Latinos were more likely and Asians less likely to receive subprime loans than whites were. Income was positively associated with receipt of subprime loans for minorities, whereas the opposite was true for whites. When expensive (jumbo) loans were excluded from the sample, regressions found an even stronger, positive association between income and subprime likelihood for minorities, supporting the theory that wealthier minorities were targeted for subprime loans when they could have qualified for prime loans. This finding also provides another example of an aspect of American life in which minorities are unable to leverage higher class position in the same way as whites are. Contrary to previous research, model estimates did not find that borrowers paid a penalty (in increased likelihood of subprime outcome) for buying homes in minority communities.     

Rolling the Dice on Foreclosure Prevention: Differences Across Mortgage Servicers in Loan Modifications and Loan Cure Rates

Mortgage servicing has garnered increased attention since the foreclosure crisis. As the interface between borrowers and investors, servicers make the decision to either grant a loan modification or to foreclose. This study examines servicer loan modification practices for a national sample of delinquent subprime loans, and assesses the extent to which those practices are associated with foreclosures. The research reveals significant differences across servicers in loan cure rates, which are related to servicers’ propensity to offer loan modifications and to the level of relief offered to borrowers. The observed differences across servicers and the implications of this heterogeneity for foreclosure prevention underscore the importance of additional data, research, and policies that can increase the uniformity and transparency of servicing practices.     

Policy incentives and the extension of mortgage credit: Increasing market discipline for subprime lending

The lax underwriting in non‐prime mortgage markets is widely perceived as one cause of the recent difficulties in the housing market. Policymakers are currently considering moves such as enforcing more careful underwriting to provide additional discipline to mortgage markets. This research explores the possibility of another approach to supplement or replace some of these efforts, namely the use of policy to create incentives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together, the GSEs) to help “check” behavior in non‐prime markets. The hypothesis is that the GSE Act affordable housing goals have increased GSE focus on targeted loan purchases, which in turn has led prime market lenders to compete more aggressively for borrowers on the margin between prime and subprime credit quality. As a consequence, these marginal borrowers will be more inclined to take prime mortgages rather than higher‐cost subprime loans. We test this hypothesis and find empirical support for it. We observe a negative relationship between the growth in GSE market share and the growth in subprime market share over time, and find that the impact of the GSEs on subprime lending tends to be stronger in high‐minority neighborhoods, where subprime lending has been concentrated and growing the fastest. Simulations show that a 10 percent increase in GSE market share (for example, from 20 to 22 percent) can cause 45,000 borrowers using prime instead of subprime loans a cost savings of about $1.7 billion. These results suggest that the GSEs, regardless of their postconservatorship form, should continue to devote attention to serving underserved populations and suggest that significant welfare benefits will accrue. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Market segmentation and lender specialization in the primary and secondary mortgage markets

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of market segmentation and lender/purchaser specialization in the primary and secondary mortgage markets. It describes and assesses the 1990 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, which for the first time provide detailed information on the borrower and neighborhood racial and income characteristics of mortgage loan originations and securitizations in the primary and secondary mortgage markets. Evidence presented in the paper indicates that home purchase loan origination rates for black applicants—and, to a lesser degree, Hispanic applicants—appear to be significantly lower than those of other racial or ethnic groups. Similarly, the HMDA data reveal that home purchase mortgage origination rates in predominantly minority census tracts are significantly lower than those in predominantly white neighborhoods. The HMDA data also indicate a striking reliance of black borrowers on government‐backed forms of mortgage credit.

The paper further reveals that secondary market loan purchase distributions arrayed by borrower and neighborhood characteristics generally reflect those of home mortgage originations. The borrower and locational characteristics of home purchase loans acquired by the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) directly reflect that agency's legislated specialization in government‐backed loans, whereas the characteristics of loans acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the most part derive from the borrower and geographic composition of conventional home purchase loan originations. Findings of analyses of HMDA data raise concern regarding the access of minority and low‐income households and neighborhoods to mortgage finance. Those results also raise some question as to whether the federally chartered agencies in the secondary market are adequately promoting the availability of mortgage credit to low‐ and moderate‐income and minority households.     

Comment on Michael A. Stegman et al.’s “Preventive servicing is good for business and affordable homeownership policy”: What prevents loan modifications?

Abstract

After discussing the article by Stegman et al., this comment describes the barriers to preventive servicing for securitized residential loans and assesses the importance of loan modifications, given the recent increases in default and foreclosure rates for subprime loans. Several hurdles slow or reduce such modifications, even those that help borrowers and investors alike. For example, self‐interest may reduce servicers’ willingness to modify loans rapidly. In addition, underlying securitization agreements may impede servicers’ ability and discretion in this area. Further, tax laws that govern a common securitization entity may limit modifications, as may accounting standards. Finally, “tranche warfare,” the sometimes contradictory fiduciary duties servicers have toward investors holding different tranches of securitized pools, may decrease their ability or their willingness to modify loans.

This comment concludes that barriers to effective loan modifications should be reduced or eliminated where feasible, but that the securitization of subprime loans creates risks for borrowers.     

Responding to the foreclosure crisis

Abstract

Regional economic downturns, speculation on skyrocketing home prices, and rampant unfair and deceptive mortgage lending practices have combined to create the perfect foreclosure storm in America. More than 2 million foreclosures are expected to occur during the next 12 to 18 months. Common to all three of these contributing factors is the reality that effective regulation of the mortgage market would have greatly limited damage from foreclosures.

This article traces the origins of the subprime market crisis and the resulting impact of foreclosures on the housing market, minority households, and the economy. The article also reviews the effectiveness of current interventions to mitigate or limit foreclosures and recommends broader solutions to help families maintain their homes.     

Originating lender localness and mortgage sustainability: an evaluation of delinquency and foreclosure in Indiana's mortgage revenue bond program

Originating lenders play a vital role in selecting and preparing borrowers for homeownership, directly and through partnerships with community entities. While previous research demonstrates the importance of originating lenders for mortgage access to low- and moderate-income borrowers, this analysis evaluates the influence of the originating lender, and in particular the localness of the lender, on mortgage sustainability (reduced delinquency and foreclosure). Employing data on more than 5,000 low- and moderate-income borrowers participating in Indiana's Mortgage Revenue Bond (MRB) program from 2004–2006, this analysis finds that the localness of the originating lender is significantly predictive of mortgage sustainability. After controlling for borrower, mortgage, and market characteristics, an increase in the localness of the lender is associated with a decrease in the probability of delinquency and foreclosure, particularly for higher risk (lower credit score) borrowers participating in the MRB program.     

The Influence of Homebuyer Education on Default and Foreclosure Risk: A Natural Experiment

The recent housing crisis has generated debate over the benefits and risks of policies and programs promoting homeownership for low and moderate income households. One important facet of this conversation is whether prepurchase homebuyer education (HBE) is effective in reducing default or foreclosure risk. Studies to date have primarily focused on default risk and have faced challenges in accounting for borrower selection into HBE. This study analyzes the outcomes of a natural experiment in the provision of a classroom‐based HBE program during the start‐up phase of a down payment assistance loan program at Tennessee's state housing finance agency in 2002. A competing risks analysis of monthly payment data from 2002 to 2009 for 732 mortgages indicates that, after controlling for borrower, mortgage, and economic factors, HBE did not reduce default risk, but was associated with 42 percent lower odds of foreclosure. Among borrowers who defaulted, HBE was associated with an increased probability of curing a first default and of avoiding foreclosure post‐default. Policymakers should consider the timing and intensity of HBE programs needed to influence default risk and how HBE may promote sustainable homeownership by influencing borrowers’ help‐seeking behavior and strategies for resolving defaults.     

Preventive servicing is good for business and affordable homeownership policy

Abstract

This article documents the growing importance of preventive servicing—business practices that emphasize early intervention in delinquency and default management practices that also help financially troubled borrowers avoid foreclosure. We suggest that the loan servicing side of the affordable housing delivery system may be underappreciated and undercapitalized.

We use a database of more than 28,000 affordable housing loans to test several preventive servicing‐related propositions and find that after we control for loan and borrower characteristics, the likelihood that a delinquent mortgagor within this universe will ultimately default varies significantly across servicers. This suggests that loan servicing is an important factor in determining whether low‐ and moderate‐income borrowers who fall behind in their mortgage payments will end up losing their homes through foreclosure. It also suggests a need for policy makers to incorporate preventive servicing into affordable homeownership programs.     

Heterogeneity in Income: Effects of Racial Concentration on Foreclosures in Los Angeles,California

ABSTRACT

The United States continues to be defined by racial concentration, where most racial/ethnic groups live apart from each other. For homeownership, neighborhoods with large proportions of racial minorities are often linked to negative outcomes for minority homeowners; this was particularly the case during the Great Recession. However, middle and upper income ethnic neighborhoods, or resurgent neighborhoods, have grown in numbers because of a concentration of immigrants, federal policies favoring professionals, ethnic-specific resources, and affluence. In 2007, about 37% of Los Angeles, California, Latino tracts were resurgent and 53% of Asian tracts were resurgent. This study finds that homeowners in resurgent neighborhoods had lower default/foreclosure rates and predicted probabilities than those in low-income neighborhoods. Asian resurgent neighborhoods had the lowest predicted probabilities of default or foreclosure, followed by Latino resurgent and White middle-class neighborhoods. There were also discrepancies among Asian neighborhoods based on nativity. Consequently, it is important to recognize that minority neighborhoods are heterogeneous, with differing impacts on homeownership opportunities when examined by class.     

Outlook: The subprime lending crisis: Focus on the problem: Subprime borrowers in trouble

Abstract

Public policy should be directed at serving the large number of borrowers who have recently taken out subprime loans and who are at serious risk of losing their homes when their mortgages reset. Practicing forbearance and providing counseling for defaulting homeowners, as well as allowing them to refinance into a Federal Housing Administration loan, can be particularly helpful. Broad changes in housing programs and in the structure of the mortgage market should be considered on their merits as good or bad public policy for the long term, not simply as solutions to the subprime problem.     

State mortgage foreclosure policies and lender interventions: Impacts on borrower behavior in default

Due to the rise in foreclosure filings, policymakers are increasingly concerned with helping families in financial distress keep their homes. This paper tests the extent to which distressed mortgage borrowers benefit from three types of state foreclosure polices: (1) judicial foreclosure proceedings, (2) statutory rights of redemption, and (3) statewide foreclosure‐prevention initiatives. Based on an analysis of borrowers in default who reside in 22 cross‐state metropolitan statistical area pairs, state policies generally have weak effects. Both judicial foreclosure proceedings and foreclosure prevention initiatives are associated with modest increases in loan modification rates. Using a matching procedure, a lender's letter promoting mortgage default counseling was associated with increases in loan modifications, decreases in loan cures, and decreases in foreclosure starts. The effects of the letter were also stronger in states with judicial proceedings. © 2011 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The Effects of Foreclosure Counseling for Distressed Homeowners

In the face of the housing market downturn of the late 2000s, policymakers promoted third‐party mortgage default counseling as a way to help people at risk of losing their homes to avoid foreclosure. Using a unique data set of monthly loan payments remitted to investors combined with administrative data from a national counseling agency, this study estimates the effects of default counseling on the probability that troubled mortgage borrowers will lose their homes to foreclosure. Borrowers are actually more likely to miss loan payments after receiving counseling, but the probability of losing a home to foreclosure drops after counseling, suggesting that counseling policies may be beneficial during housing crises.     

Indebted life and money culture: payday lending in the United Kingdom

Critical social scientific research holds that credit–debt is a principal economic and governing relation in contemporary economy and society, but largely neglects money’s role in indebted life. Drawing on qualitative research in the payday loan market in the United Kingdom, the paper shows that borrowers typically relate to loans in monetary rather than financial terms and incorporate them into practices of payment, spending and online banking. To analyse how indebted life is variously experienced and enacted through money, the concept of money culture is developed to refer to money’s culture, money’s meanings and money’s affects. Borrowers enter into and negotiate payday loans through a digitally mediated money culture that both mobilizes and runs counter to money’s powerful fictions as circulating universal equivalent and calculative means of account.     

Do Small Area Fair Market Rents Reduce Racial Disparities in the Voucher Program?

ABSTRACT

A lawsuit that argued that the method used to calculate rent limits in the Housing Choice Voucher Program promoted racial segregation in Dallas, Texas, resulted in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development developing zip code-based voucher rent limits in Dallas in 2011. This rent calculation approach was then expanded to five other demonstration sites in 2012. This article analyzes whether adjusting voucher rent limits reduces a minority household’s likelihood of living in a high-minority neighborhood, improves their likelihood of living in a higher opportunity neighborhood, and reduces the disparity in location outcomes between minority and White households in the voucher program. This article finds evidence of improvements in the location outcomes of Black and Hispanic voucher households because of the use of zip code-based rent limits, but that these results are only marginal with respect to the persistent disparities in outcomes based on race within the voucher program.     

Home mortgage lending by applicant race: Do HMDA figures provide a distorted picture?

Abstract

The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975 (HMDA) was designed to further fair access to mortgage credit and requires lenders to report such information as location, loan amount, income, and race and sex for each application. However, race is missing in a significant proportion of applications taken by mail or phone. Given the widespread use of HMDA data by lenders, community groups, researchers, and regulators and the importance of mortgage lending as a public policy issue, the strengths and shortcomings of these data must be clearly understood.

The main findings are that reported approval rates by race are significantly overstated for refinance and home improvement loans, while home purchase loans are little affected. A review of trends in how race is reported and in the technology of mortgage lending indicates that missing data on race will become a bigger and bigger problem in the near future.