浅析美国与东盟的反恐合作

"9·11"事件以来,美国与东盟展开了较为深入的反恐合作.美国与东盟的反恐合作基于双方联合打击恐怖主义威胁和调整彼此间关系的共同利益需求,然而,美国与东盟之间在反恐侧重点、主权权益和战略目标上的矛盾将影响双方反恐合作的深化.     

"9·11"以后的俄美欧关系

"9·11"事件出乎意料地促成了俄美欧关系的靠近,但它们都抱有不同的目的,俄罗斯经济发展需要美欧的支持,所以,"9·11"事件正好成为俄与美欧改善关系的契机,欧洲希望借此机会,建立一个"完整"的欧洲,美国则从反恐需要出发,认为没有俄罗斯的支持,反恐战争是难以取胜的,所以,基于各自战略的考虑,俄美欧走到了一起.     

"9·11"事件以来美国东南亚政策的调整及其对我国的影响

自"9·11"事件以来,为了配合其全球反恐的战略需要,美国着手对其东南亚政策进行调整,并与东南亚国家进行各种形式的反恐合作.本文主要分析了"9·11"事件以来美国东南亚政策调整的背景、内容以及美国在东南亚加强军事存在对中国的影响.     

"9·11"事件后的德国--反应与影响

本文简要介绍了美国"9·11"恐怖袭击事件后德国政府在内政、外交及军事等方面的反应,并对"9·11"事件在政治和经济方面对德国的近期影响作了分析与展望.     

“9·11”事件后欧盟与东盟反恐合作初探

9·11事件后,欧盟与东盟两大地区集团从维护自身安全及战略利益的需要出发,依托联合国反恐委员会、亚欧会议、东盟地区论坛、欧盟-东盟部长级会议、欧共体-东盟共同合作委员会等一系列机制平台,在许多领域进行了卓有成效的区域间反恐合作,但某些潜在的制约因素也应引起欧盟和东盟双方的重视。目前,欧盟与东盟的跨区域反恐合作仍处于一种标志性、意向性、有限性的规划与实践阶段,在可以预见的未来,双方将以众多成员国之间双边或多边的功能性合作为主要突破口。     

试论"9·11"事件对当前世界多极化进程的影响

冷战结束后,世界多极化与单极化的较量从来就没有停止过.但是"9·11"事件发生后,世界政治、经济形势急转直下."9·11"事件使得世人的目光集中到全球反恐怖主义上来,美国也大肆利用此次事件,乘机强化了其军事恫吓力量,积极推行各项单边主义政策."9·11"事件后,美国的霸权地位相对显得更加突出,美国谋求建立由它主宰的单极世界的步子将加快,单边主义政策更加一意孤行,世界多极化的发展受到了严重的挑战.     

国际恐怖主义对美国及世界经济的影响--以美国"9·11事件"为例

本文分成三个部分,分别阐述以"9·11事件"为例的国际恐怖主义对纽约、美国以至世界经济所带来的重大损失和深刻影响,并透过这个分析,认识国际恐怖主义的危害性和反恐斗争的必要性.     

试析"9·11事件"的原因及对国际关系的影响

"9·11事件"的发生与美国在冷战后所采取的政策有直接的关系.在全球化发展且使世界贫富加重的情况下,美国仍以冷战思维,到处插手别国事务,特别是在巴以冲突中,一味采取偏袒以色列的政策,引起阿拉伯世界的强烈不满."9·11事件"不仅给美国经济而且给世界经济造成严重影响.     

再论 9·11事件对东南亚伊斯兰文化圈的冲击

9·11事件及美国在阿富汗的军事行动,在东南亚伊斯兰文化圈引起了强烈的反应.美国与东盟签署了反恐联合协定,一些东南亚国家也采取了强硬的措施对付恐怖主义.但是,东南亚伊斯兰文化圈内各国的情况千差万别,各国内部存在许多尖锐复杂的矛盾,这些矛盾错综复杂地相互交织在一起,因此,反对恐怖主义将是该地区面临的一个长期的、艰巨的任务.     

美国:从中亚到南高加索

“9·11”事件后,美国军事力量进入中亚和南高加索地区,使欧亚大陆中部的国际关系发生了重大变化。作为美国反恐的基地,该地区的战略地位显著提高。     

Chinese Security in the Post-11 September World: Implications for Asia and the Pacific

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and the Bush administration's policy changes, Chinese strategic specialists are engaged in a wide ranging and increasingly public debate over China's national security strategies and priorities. Although senior leaders continue to argue that most trends remain favorable for Chinese security interests, far more cautionary assessments are also being voiced. In this article, Jonathan D. Pollack, chairman of the Strategic Research Department, US Naval War College, points out that the increased complexity and differentiation in Chinese policymaking reveals multiple trends at work. Even as Chinese policymakers emphasize their keen desire to reinforce regional stability, the longer-term picture remains clouded, from the Taiwan straits to the Korean peninsula to Central Asia to future developments in nuclear weapons policy. Pollack argues that there is a compelling need to invigorate exchanges between senior officials in Beijing, Washington, Tokyo and other major capitals, lest China and other states undertake policies that undermine the prospects for long term regional stability and security.     

In the Aftermath of the Storm: US Foreign Policy in the Wake of 9/11 and its Implications for the Asia-Pacific region

In the following article, Kurt M. Campbell, senior vice-president and director of the International Security Program (ISP) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, DC., and Yuki Tatsumi, ISP research associate at CSIS, explore the changes that have taken place in US foreign policy since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and how such changes might be reflected on its policy toward the Asia-Pacific region. They point out that the US will shift its focus to security at home and war on terrorism abroad. In the short-term, US focus will deviate from Northeast Asia to Southeast, Central and South Asia, but as the region will continue to be strategically important, the US will remain engaged in the region. It is up to the countries in the Asia-Pacific to ensure that the US engagement in their region is not dominated by unilateralism and excessive preoccupation with the war against terrorism.     

Asian Security without the United States? Examining China’s Security Strategy in Maritime and Continental Asia

Chinese President Xi Jinping has touted an Asian security architecture in which “it is for the people of Asia to run the affairs of Asia.” But does China really want to exclude the United States from the regional order? This article argues that previous answers are often insufficient because they do not account for sub-regional variation in China’s strategy. In maritime Asia, China seeks a significantly reduced role for the US and its alliances though major constraints limit the prospects for success. In continental Asia, however, the situation is more nuanced, with Beijing alternately ignoring, supporting, or hedging against US presence. The policy implication is that Washington should not overstate Beijing’s role as either a regional adversary or a regional partner. Rather, the United States needs to approach China on its own terms across sub-regions.     

新加坡与美国的军事合作关系

在军事战略方面,新加坡已成为美国亚太安全岛链中的重要角色,成为美国防范恐怖主义和围堵中国的棋局中的一个棋子.本文通过军事合作与地缘战略两项因素,分析新加坡与美国的军事合作关系.本文研究发现:第一,新加坡正在取代此前菲律宾的地位,成为美国在亚太地区前沿部署的关键性角色;第二,美国对于新加坡的武器输出,已经超出"防御武器"的限制;第三,在"9·11"事件之后,新加坡宣布与美国站在同一阵线,共同对抗恐怖主义.也就是说,由于地缘战略的重要性,美国正借与新加坡的军事合作,使其成为美国亚太安全岛链的一环.     

The US and China in the Malay Archipelago

After the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, US measures to improve counter-terrorism and maritime security in the Malay Archipelago, home to the world's largest population of Muslims, have led to a heightened US role and presence in the region. However, this has sparked fears in China over the ability of the US in interdicting vital waterways in a region which China increasingly relies on for its economic development. China has therefore also worked hard to improve relations with states in the Malay Archipelago. The states in the region have responded to the increased Sino-US strategic rivalry by adopting a classic hedging strategy, whereby they hope to reap the benefits of US security assistance and assurances while at the same time engaging with a resurgent China. However, this is a difficult challenge and there are dangers that the deepening US-China strategic rivalry could yet embroil the region in new conflicts.     

Terrorist attacks and public approval of the Russian president: evidence from time series analysis

ABSTRACT

This article applies time series analysis to examine weekly data on Vladimir Putin’s approval rating and their dependence on terrorist attacks. I find that minor terrorist attacks with few or no fatalities in Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan increase Putin’s ratings, while major terrorist attacks, with more than four fatalities, have a negative impact. There is also evidence that terrorist attacks in other Russian regions reduce Putin’s public approval; however, this evidence is weaker and depends on the model specification. Furthermore, I control for main annual media events with President Putin’s participation: the television Q&A program “Direct Line with V. Putin,” Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly, and a large annual press conference. All three media events increase the president’s approval, with Direct Line having the least effect.     

Introduction: The Territory of Identity and Remembrance in Okinawa

In the wake of the 1997 regional economic crisis, but before 11 September 2001, many Southeast Asian governments were besieged by formidable challenges to their legitimacy These challenges have been arguably mitigated by the political capital provided by the September 11 event as many regional governments have joined forces with the United States in its “war against terror.” These governments have uncovered the existence of regional terrorist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiah, with alleged links to the al-Qaida network. With the ostensible routing of the al-Qaida network in Afghanistan, Southeast Asia has been postulated as the new front line and base for Islamic militants. While international forces have undoubtedly contributed to the rise of political and militant Islam in Southeast Asia, this article will highlight the importance of localized sociopolitical and economic sources of Muslim grievance and the vexed issue of authoritarian governance. It is imperative that these issues be seriously addressed if the ideological appeal of radical and militant Islamists is to be effectively mitigated.     

US security strategy in Asia and the prospects for an Asian regional security regime

The US–Japan alliance serves as the cornerstone of US security strategy in East Asia. The Bush administration remains supportive of efforts by Japan to become a more “normal” nation and is expected, during its second term, to continue to encourage Tokyo to play a more active role in regional security (while refraining from open pressure or from meddling in the debate over constitutional revision). The Pentagon's ongoing Global Force Review will likely result in some modest adjustments in the US military footprint in Japan, but with no lessening of Washington's overall commitment or ability to respond to regional crises. Meanwhile, Washington will continue to support institutionalized multilateral mechanisms (including sub-regional efforts that do not include the US) as useful means to promote regional security and coordinate counter-terrorism efforts, while relying on ad hoc coalitions (or unilateral actions if necessary) to address specific threats to its own security or to the security of its allies.     

The "Crusade" Against Evil: Bush's Fundamentalism

This paper deals with some of the religious elements in the responses to the terrorist attacks. It criticises some initial Christian responses (in America) as well as George Bush (Jnr)'s self-asserted Christian credentials. The conjunction between business-friendly forms of religion and the religious cloak over a right-wing political stance is presented as an aspect of Bush's "crusade". The paper surveys the history of the constitutional separation of church and state and the emergence of a republican tradition which had pretensions to displace the "moral haughtiness" and insolence of American religiosity. But the "faith-based" legislation favoured by Bush has prevailed in the general judgementalism of the administration and in the "security measures" and pro-corporate legislation enacted in 2001 and 2002.     

“In the National Interest”: Australia's Approach to Nuclear Proliferation in a Changing International Environment

In the context of the ongoing international debate concerning the efficacy or otherwise of the NPT and IAEA in preventing or managing nuclear proliferation, Australia's undertaking to enter a nuclear cooperation agreement with the People's Republic of China (PRC), once identified as a “strategic competitor” of Australia's major alliance partner the United States (US), suggests that Australia's approach to proliferation issues is being re-evaluated. This paper argues, utilising an analysis of the relationship between the evolving US approach to nuclear issues and Australian policy, that the Howard government's evolving approach to nuclear issues can be characterised as an attempt to balance the competing imperatives of maintaining Australia's reputation as a nuclear non-proliferation standard bearer, regional strategic and economic considerations and the weight of the Australia-US alliance.