波兰的中等强国外交——身份定位、角色期望与外交偏好

转型以来取得的巨大经济成就、国内政治精英的地区大国认知,以及国际社会认可度的提升等要素,共同塑造了波兰的中等强国身份。中等强国身份的确立,建构了波兰中等强国的角色期望,驱动波兰自东欧剧变以来在国际社会扮演了"东西欧之间的调停者"、"跨大西洋关系的坚定盟友"和"欧洲地区的大国地位追求者"等角色。尤其在2015年法律与公正党执政以后,波兰通过发起"三海倡议"和"北极外交",积极谋求在中东欧地区的领导权和在北极科考领域的地区大国身份。既有的"结盟理论"和"行为主义理论"忽略了不同中等强国之间外交行为的主观动机差异性,而角色理论突出了国内精英政治认知与外交决策之间的因果逻辑,有利于揭示不同类型的中等强国外交行为的差异性动因。基于此,本文试图通过角色理论的分析框架,探究当前波兰颇具雄心的外交决策逻辑。     

俄罗斯国家定位:从帝国到面向欧亚的民族国家

冷战后的俄罗斯丧失了帝国但还没有形成清晰的国家定位。关于俄罗斯国家定位,从内部看是如何处理帝国后遗症与走向正常的民族国家之间的关系,从外部看是关于走向西方与面向欧亚之间的矛盾。在经历国内政治、经济的艰难转型以及对外的外交博弈,帝国之后的俄罗斯其国家定位必然是建设在面向欧亚基础上的正常的民族国家。     

2011年菲律宾经济、政治与外交形势回顾

2011年的菲律宾,经济总体表现不如预期;在国内政治方面,政府三权之间冲突不断引发宪政危机。此外,政府与国内分裂势力之间的谈判进展也不顺利,和解之路依然任重道远。外交方面,对外关系处于急剧变动时期,菲中关系喜忧参半,菲美、菲日关系急剧升温。     

1956年的波兰危机与中波关系——来自中国的档案文献和内部报道

1956年对于波兰和中国乃至整个社会主义阵营来说都是激烈动荡的年代,也是中波关系发展中的一个重要阶段。这一年,波兰发生了波兹南事件和十月危机,其结果导致国内政治动荡及与苏联关系处于紧张状态。在此政治局势急剧变动的时期,中国的立场和态度如何,中共在波兰和社会主义阵营的政治变动中发挥了什么样的作用和影响,一直是历史研究者希望了解的,而国际学术界以往的研究则十分欠缺。本文作者基于详实的档案史料对所述问题作出了深入的分析。     

俄乌冲突背景下波兰对俄外交战略溯源——“雅盖隆思想”的复兴与波兰东方政策

自俄乌冲突爆发以来，波兰采取强硬的对抗与遏制俄罗斯的外交战略。理解这一外交战略，需要回溯波兰政治文化遗产“雅盖隆思想”及其指引下的波兰东方政策。在战略文化的层面，雅盖隆思想是对作为波兰历史“黄金时期”雅盖隆王朝历史记忆的追溯和沿用；在地缘政治的层面，雅盖隆思想强调波兰东方政策的传统，主要战略意图是防范俄罗斯，限制俄罗斯在乌克兰、白俄罗斯以及立陶宛的影响，进而与东部邻国共同建立反俄联盟。19世纪以来，雅盖隆思想共经历了三次复兴。冷战结束后，雅盖隆思想指导下的波兰外交政策的最显著特征，是对欧盟和北约成员国身份的使用。波兰借助雅盖隆思想的文化基础与俄罗斯争夺对俄波中间地带国家的影响力。俄乌冲突以来，波兰已经成为塑造欧洲东部安全秩序的关键角色。雅盖隆思想指导下的波兰外交政策，继续强调波兰对欧洲东部安全秩序的构想和将这一思想变为现实的雄心。但是，雅盖隆思想的复兴无助于弥合目前波兰与俄罗斯分裂的地缘政治主张与利益分歧，甚至会加剧欧洲与俄罗斯意识形态的对抗与冲突。     

欧盟气候外交的战略困境及政策转型

自上世纪90年代起,欧盟通过雄心勃勃的气候外交战略获得了国际气候谈判领导者的地位。以2009年哥本哈根大会为起点,以国际航空碳税政策的失败为标志,欧盟的气候外交战略陷入了结构性与工具性的双重困境。欧盟外交角色定位不明且行动效率低下、气候外交模式偏重技术官僚主导、经济基础存在结构性制约、气候外交与总体外交战略存在逻辑对冲是导致这一困境的主要因素。为巩固既有利益及重获气候谈判领导权,欧盟于2010年开始制定并实施了若干转型政策。总体来看,转型政策呈现出重视中期战略、注重能源安全、维护伙伴关系以及强调规制主义等特征。这些转型政策将在一定程度上弱化气候外交困境的影响,使欧盟更加接近其气候外交的战略目标。     

社会科学文献出版社

<正>独立与依附:李承晚之外交独立思想朱芹/著2014年12月/129.00元本书以历史分析法、层次分析法和定性分析法为分析工具,透析李承晚外交独立思想的国内外背景、早期的萌生、著作中的建构、实践中的蜕变与沉淀及其对朝鲜半岛命运的影响。全书涉及李氏朝鲜末期、大韩帝国与日据时期,延及战后美国军政府时期,论及朝鲜半岛政治派系与中美苏日等多个行为体之间的外交     

捷克与斯洛伐克政治、经济和外交转型比较

1989年政局剧变后,捷克与斯洛伐克开始了政治、经济和外交全面转型进程。1992年捷克和斯洛伐克联邦解体后,它们各自呈现出了不同的转型特征。历史传统、政治精英和"回归欧洲"等因素决定和影响了它们的转型路径和转型绩效。转型初始条件较差的斯洛伐克经历了更为曲折和艰难的转型道路,但随着政治精英更能利用欧洲一体化的发展机遇促进国内政治、经济和社会发展,它在转型的后半程取得显著进展,不仅与捷克会合于欧洲-大西洋结构中,而且缩短了与捷克的差距。     

后冷战时期波兰的民族认同与俄罗斯观

民族认同的建构与民族的"他者"的变化互联互动。俄罗斯在波兰民族认同的建构和发展过程中,始终以"他者"的角色而存在,对后者发挥着关键性的影响作用。就波兰人的民族认同来说,俄罗斯的负面形象发挥着布迪厄所说的"文化资本"的功能。后冷战时期的波兰完全放弃了关于其身份和在国际体系中地位的旧有观念,其民族认同与民族意识发生了显著的变化。剧变后的俄罗斯的民主化转型,深刻影响着后冷战时期波兰的俄罗斯观的转变和波俄关系的调整。     

俄罗斯外交大辩论及其背景与后果

苏联解体之后,围绕未来外交走向问题,俄罗斯外交界、学术界展开了一场大讨论。这场大讨论所涉及的范围与影响不仅部分内容已在传媒有所透露,而且亦见之于、闻之于一些来访人士。分析与追踪这场大讨论的来龙去脉与主要问题有利于把握俄罗斯外交的今后走向。一、外交大辩论的缘起与主要背景     

La Chambre introuvable et les principes du régime parlementaire

Summary

Discussions of British policy towards Poland and the Polish question in the years before the first Partition have recently been provided by Michael Roberts and by Hamish Scott. They have given both a narrative and an analysis of British diplomacy and foreign policy in the decade after the end of the Seven Years’ War. It is the purpose of this paper to suggest the resonance which British policy (and the lack of it) and opinion on Poland had for contemporary understanding of the British political system and political culture itself.1 The implications for Britain of the first Partition of Poland were ominous and unsettling for the British polity, and would challenge both diplomatic practice and political prejudices and commonplaces.     

Monitoring the rise of a radical force: the British Embassy in Athens and the Ascent of the Greek Panhellenic Socialist Movement, 1974–1981*

The article deals with perceptions, conceptions and policy implementation of British diplomacy towards the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) from its formation in 1974 until its first rise into power in 1981. PASOK, a political movement that was to dominate Greek politics for more than twenty years, entered the Greek political scene as a new, radical force that threatened Western values and interests and aspired to reshape the international orientation of the country, in a period of high Cold War tensions. It will be shown that British diplomacy, despite its opposition to PASOK, was forced by political realities to modify its policy significantly, in order to accommodate PASOK and preserve its interests in a country that was considered as a vital ally of the Western world.     

阿都拉政府的政治与外交

2003年10月底上台的阿都拉政府,在处理政治和外交问题上展现出明显的新风格,得到了举国上下和国际社会的肯定和支持,马来西亚的政治和外交也最终重回正常发展的轨道.但马来西亚政治和外交的主要方针基本没变,阿都拉政府的成功,除了领导人的个人特质外,也取决于相对稳定的内外形势.马来西亚政治和外交的近期发展令人看好,但也存在一些值得关注的不确定因素.     

泰国2010年政治、经济和外交形势

2010年泰国政治、经济和外交形势都有较大程度改善。政治上,政府成功解决了3月至5月的国内政治危机,完成宪法修订,政府威信逐步提高;经济上,克服了政局动荡和自然灾害的消极影响,实现强劲复苏,全年GDP增速达到7.8%,创15年来最快年度经济增速;外交上,进一步深化与中国等大国的双边关系,但与柬埔寨的关系仍未得到彻底改善。     

Understanding institutional change: Fiscal management in Local China

As China's economy continues to grow, it wants to expand its markets and secure reliable supplies of resources in support of its economic development. Resource diplomacy therefore becomes a prominent feature of its modernisation diplomacy. In turn, many African governments perceive political and economic ties with China to be an important asset, which strengthens their international bargaining power, especially vis-à-vis Western governments. African countries are also depicted as China's reliable political and economic partners, though one can hardly afford to be optimistic regarding Africa's peace and development in the future. Many small African governments have been switching diplomatic recognition between Taipei and Beijing for economic assistance too. Chinese leaders have no intention of engaging in diplomatic and strategic competition with the USA and the European Union in Africa, but they certainly will not co-operate with Western governments in helping Africa because they want to push for multipolarity.     

从对俄政策调整看日本周边外交的困境

日俄关系在日本的周边外交中占有重要位置,近年来日本试图通过调整对俄政策彰显外交的自主性,改善周边外交状况,推出了一些新的政策措施。首先,日本建议绕开领土问题,扩大与俄罗斯的经济合作,为两国关系的彻底改善,也为最终解决领土问题奠定基础。其次,提出日俄在争议领土从事"共同经济活动"的建议,旨在与俄罗斯在争议领土进行"共同"开发,获得俄罗斯默认日本对争议领土具有主权权利,以便打开日俄关系的大门。第三,日本试图通过调整对俄政策改善周边关系,维护日本在周边外交中的有利地位。但是,日本的对俄政策依然受到内外因素限制,俄罗斯不会轻易在领土问题上让步,日本国内舆论也不可能支持政府在领土问题上让步,日俄之间也不可能在领土问题上达成共识,日俄之间的经济合作也很难脱离政治环境而有所扩大,特别是在日美同盟的框架下,日俄合作具有局限性,日本的周边外交仍然陷于困境之中。     

Burkina Faso: Between Taiwan's active public diplomacy and China's business attractiveness

Burkina Faso and Taiwan restored official relations in 1994, after which Taipei's aid has been generous. Taiwan's approach to official development assistance has remained largely traditional, closely linking its public diplomacy to its foreign policy objectives. Trade between both countries has remained very modest. In the same period, because of mainland China's rise and active strategy of ‘going out’, Burkina Faso has developed a robust trade and business relationship with China. As a result, the pull to establish official ties with China (and thus end ties with Taiwan) has become a domestic political issue. After the ousting of President Blaise Compaoré in 2014, a failed coup and then the return to democracy as seen in the November 2015 elections, this debate has become more public. While Burkina Faso has remained faithful to Taiwan and continues to publicly appreciate its assistance, there is no certainty that the political values that both Burkina Faso and Taiwan share will prevent a Burkinabe move towards China.     

China's Foreign Strategy

This article introduces four trends of China's foreign strategy. Analysis of China's diplomacy since the 1980s based on these concepts demonstrates China's intent to become a great power and its aspirations for a China-centric order.     

THE IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS: ONE YEAR ON

This article, written by the former British Ambassador to Iran, starts with an overview from an insider's perspective of the 15 years of diplomacy leading up to the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran's Nuclear capabilities. It discusses the merits of the plan and its prospects for the future. It examines the development of international economic engagement, and in particular argues that the western powers need to do far more to deliver an economic quid pro quo for Iran's nuclear concessions: if the situation is not appreciably better soon, it will be impossible for the US and its partners to argue credibly that they are not in breach of the JCPOA. The article concludes with a discussion of Iran's economic and political prospects in the light of the nuclear deal.     

SADC and the GCC: Shared regional challenges and potential links

This article assesses the prospects for a clearly articulated economic diplomacy approach in South Africa's foreign policy. It argues that while South Africa's foreign policy has been to a considerable extent normatively grounded, it has failed to develop a coherent economic diplomacy that is based on focused and distinctly expressed priorities. This is a crucial gap that limits the country's ability to respond to regional and global changes, in particular those posed by emerging powers. The article identifies a number of gaps in South Africa's foreign policy approach and highlights its oblivion to global developments and geopolitical dynamics in the African continent. It sets out possible policy outlines for developing a clearer and stronger economic diplomacy. The building blocks for such an approach include the identification of strategic foreign policy priorities; greater institutional co-operation among agencies dealing with economic and foreign policy development; synergies between corporate strategies and government's foreign policy objectives; and the need for South Africa to develop a stronger leadership ambition in the African continent, both to contribute to Africa's development and to pursue its own economic interests. This ambition will require awareness of South Africa's own limitations, thus focusing the better part of its foreign policy on a limited set of countries that match strategic priorities.