SIDESTEPPING A QUAGMIRE: RUSSIA,SYRIA, AND THE LESSONS OF THE SOVIET-AFGHAN WAR

Russia's military intervention in Syria (2015-present) has ensured the Assad regime's survival to date. Why though has Russia succeeded in achieving its objective? This article provides an analysis of Russia's involvement in the Syrian civil war in comparison to the Soviet Union's military debacle in Afghanistan (1979-89). Accordingly, by avoiding the USSR's mistakes in Afghanistan, this article posits that Russia has not become entangled in a protracted conflict in Syria. In Syria, Russia has militarily intervened to buttress the Assad regime, not to reorganize the host government's leadership and assume control over the war effort. Meanwhile, Syrian opposition forces lack concerted international support and Russia has allies that are assisting the embattled Syrian government. Lastly, Russia intends to ‘freeze’ the Syrian civil war in place by (i) pressuring opposition forces to submit and other countries to re-embrace Damascus in a diplomatic forum, (ii) endorsing Syria's claim to sovereignty, and (iii) relying upon a small military presence to deter others from destabilizing Assad's rule.     

The first map of modern Egypt Mohammed Ali's firman and the map of 1841

Afganistan, Part I (Moscow, All‐Russian Scholarly Association for Orientalism, 1923; 205 pp.)

D. Anuchina and others; I. M. Ryeysnyer,

Afganistan (Moscow, The Communist Academy Press; 267 pp.)

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Yevgyeniy Shuan, Dzhang. Vosstaniye v Afganistanye, Dzhang: Revolt in Afghanistan (Leningrad, Priboy, 1930; 248 pp.)

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M. A. Babakhdzhayev, is entitled Bor'ba Afganistana za nyezavisimost’ (1838–1842), Afghanistan's War for Independence, 1838–42 (Moscow, Oriental Literature Press for the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Soviet Union's Academy of Sciences, 1960; 107 pp.).

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R. T. Akhramovich's Outline History of Afghanistan After the Second World War (Moscow, Nauka Press for the Institute of the Peoples of Asia of the Soviet Union's Academy of Sciences, 1966; 192 pp.)

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Voprosi ekonomiki Afganistana, Problems of Afghanistan's Economics (Moscow, Oriental Literature Press for the Institute of the Peoples of Asia of the Soviet Union's Academy of Sciences, 1963; 248 pp.)

A. A. Polyak, Ekonomichyeskiy stroy Afganistana (ochyerki), The Economic System of Afghanistan: Essays (Moscow, Nauka Press for the Soviet Union's Academy of Sciences, 1964; 164 pp.)

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Guryevich, Ochyerki istorii torgovogo kapitala v Afganistanye, Essays on the History of Trade Capital in Afghanistan (Moscow, Nauka Press for the Institute of the Peoples of Asia of the Soviet Union's Academy of Sciences, 1967; 143 pp.).

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M. A. Babakhodzhayev. The first is Ochyerki sotsial'no‐ekonomichyeskoy i politichyeskoy istorii Afganistana (konyets 19 v.), Essays About the Socio‐Economic and Political History of Afghanistan: The End of the 19th Century (Tashkent, Fan Press for the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Uzbekistan Academy of Sciences, 1975; 196 pp.).

Afganistan (voprosi istorii, ekonomiki i ftlologii), Afghanistan: Problems of History, Economics and Philology (Tashkent, Fan Press for the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Uzbekistan Academy of Sciences, 1978; 124 pp.).

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Afganskiye skazki, Afghan Tales, translated by the same K. Lyebyedyev (Moscow, Government Press for Artistic Literature, 1955; 160 pp.).

Skazki i stikhi Afganistana, Tales and Verses of Afghanistan (Moscow, Artistic Literature Press, 1958; 312 pp.).

Afganiskiye narodniye poslovitsi i pogovorki, Afghan Popular Proverbs and Sayings, translated from Pushtu by the above Lyebyedyev and Yatsyevich (Moscow, Foreign Literature Press, 1961; 67 pp.).

Afganskiye Skazki i lyegyendi, Afghan Tale and Legends, translated from Pushtu by various hands (Moscow, Nauka Press, 1972; 280 pp.).

G. P. Yedzhov's Nash sosyed Afganistan, Our Neighbour, Afghanistan (Znaniye Press, 1965; 32 pp.).

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Afghanistan: Past and Present (Moscow, Social Sciences Today Press for the Soviet Union's Academy of Sciences, 1981; 272 pp.)     

The Central Asian muftiate in occupied Afghanistan, 1979–87

Known by the Russian acronym SADUM, the muftiate responsible for overseeing mosques in the five Soviet Central Asian republics conducted pro-Soviet public diplomacy in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan after the invasion of December 1979. SADUM's engagement with pro-Soviet ulama in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan marks a departure from the character of its extensive propaganda and relationship-building activities elsewhere in the Muslim and developing worlds. The Central Asian Islamic scholars staffing SADUM sought to assist the Soviet Party-state in establishing and consolidating a cadre of Afghan ulama who could achieve legitimacy in the eyes of Afghanistan's overwhelmingly Muslim population while maintaining political support for the Communist-oriented People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan.     

Fearing the Ghosts of State Officialdom Past? Russia's Archives as a Tool for Constructing Historical Memories of Its Persia Policy Practices

The overarching task of this article is to directly present the main crucial venues – a prototype road map of Russia's study of Persia in the context of foreign policy – to the students of Russia and its relations with Persia, as well as, more specifically, to researchers of Russia's late Imperial and early Soviet policy towards Middle East and Oriental studies therein. Simultaneously, taking into consideration the equivocal and quite often controversial nature of conducting archival research in Russia, it is worth knowing that a scholarly activity, seemingly conventional and rather straightforward in the West, can turn into an adventurous quest in present-day Russia, hampered by various factors. So the article also touches upon the current condition of the archival industry in present-day Russia, with the emphasis on the traditionally most burning issue in this field, namely the unjustifiably excessive secrecy, underpinned by the discourse of protecting Russian state interests, which can turn out to be an unexpected obstacle to research into a period even dating back a hundred years.     

IMPERIAL DESIGNS

For a very short period after the attacks on 9/11, as the United States bombarded Taliban positions and the alleged training camps of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida organization, Afghanistan was center stage. Then, as the mundane mopping up, the political haggling, and the international community's efforts to manage the postwar mess took over, the spotlight turned to Iraq. Yet even while Afghan landscapes, politics, and economic and social practices were the focus of the world's attention, the country's history and its place in Central Asia and in the wider realm of Asian and global geopolitics were little covered by the media. This essay outlines how Afghanistan has figured in the imperial designs of regional and international powers for more than two thousand years. From the Mongol invasions of the “civilized” world in the thirteenth century to the U.S. intervention just after the turn of the second millennium CE., the “deep” political history of Afghanistan is described with a view to “locating” the country in a wider political-economic context. Afghanistan's relationship to the great regional empires of Persia, India, and China in the late medieval and early modern periods is discussed, as is its role in “the Great Game” of imperial politics between Russia and British India during the nineteenth century. The regional impact of the Russian Revolution and of efforts to consolidate the USSR are described, as is the rising nationalism and Islamism of the peoples of the region during the final years of the Soviet Union. The Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the longer term implications of U.S. support for the mujahiddin – support that ironically contributed to the movement that gave rise to al-Qaida -- are analyzed as the final episodes before 9/11 and the recent dramatic U.S. military and political intervention.     

Afghanistan reconstruction in regional perspective

The reconstruction of Afghanistan is in part dependent upon the reintegration of Afghanistan into the international community. Reintegration, in turn, is dependent upon Afghanistan's trans-border infrastructure of communication, trade, transport, water, power and investment. Accordingly, increased regional economic cooperation is a key element of Afghanistan's reconstruction. This article analyses regional economic cooperation in the South and Central Asian region in terms of logic, institutions, actors, and expectations. The article argues in favour of inclusiveness to enlarge the number of beneficiaries of economic benefits of regional economic cooperation while avoiding the pitfalls of risky strategies of faulty collective action.     

Causes of the Collapse of the USSR

The paper studies Russia's Ukraine policy since the Orange Revolution. Russia's policy toward its western neighbor has evolved from unhappy relations with Victor Yushchenko to rapprochement with Victor Yanukovich and then confrontation over the revolutionary power change in Kiev in February 2014. The paper argues that Vladimir Putin's actions following February revolution in Kiev demonstrate both change and continuity in Russia's foreign policy. Although these actions constituted a major escalation, relative to Russia's previous behavior toward Ukraine, the escalation of relations with Kiev also reflected a broader policy pattern of Russia's assertive relations with the Western nations adopted by the Kremlin since the mid-2000s. What made Russia's conflict with Ukraine possible, even inevitable, was the West's lack of recognition for Russia's values and interests in Eurasia, on the one hand, and the critically important role that Ukraine played in the Kremlin's foreign policy calculations, on the other. The paper provides an empirically grounded interpretation of Russia's changing policy that emphasizes Russia–Ukraine–West interaction and a mutually reinforcing dynamics of their misunderstanding. It also addresses four alternative explanations of Russia's Ukraine policy and discusses several dangers and possible solutions to the crisis.     

AFGHANISTAN: DISCERNING CHINA’S WESTWARD MARCH

This article discerns the shifts in China's engagement with its Western neighbour, Afghanistan. Beijing's approach has gradually shifted from dis-interest to a careful re-calibration of strategy indicating Afghanistan's growing eminence in its strategic calculus. This transposition – dating back to the 1980's – it is argued has been accentuated as the ‘West’ weans itself away from the Afghan theatre. This article demonstrates that Beijing's chequered history of engagement with Kabul has been historically underpinned by its engagement with a plethora of actors identified with ‘political Islam’ who in turn are patronized by its allies in Rawalpindi. Its deepening footprint in contemporary Afghanistan while continuing to be coloured by the prism of Rawalpindi, is informed by a growing sense of unease regarding the perceived adverse imprint that developments across China's Western borders are likely to leave on its domestic security and growing economic interests in the region.     

Electoral Systems in a Divided Society: The Case of Afghanistan

Electoral systems can be powerful instruments for shaping the content and practice of politics in divided societies, such as Afghanistan; and their design needs to be closely linked to context. This paper explores the suitability of Afghanistan's electoral mechanisms in light of the nation's political system, social divisions, and the process, which led to their adoption. There is no perfect electoral system; and the winners of the country's first-ever presidential election and the subsequent assembly elections face the formidable challenge of transforming Afghanistan from a war torn fiefdom into a nation. Hamid Karzai's victory and Afghanistan's improved, although fragile, security environment appear to represent an important step toward democracy. Yet, elections and electoral mechanisms are a necessary but insufficient means to the introduction and endurance of constitutional democratic government. The legitimacy of Afghanistan's new democratic institutions will rest on the government's progress in producing results, such as disarming the private militias of powerful commanders, some of whom represent sizeable ethnic minorities, and curbing the burgeoning poppy cultivation. An electoral system is but one piece, significant but not the linchpin, of the schema of Afghan political dynamics.     

Russia and the United States: Still cold in Northeast Asia?

The US has been reluctant to acknowledge Russia's relevance to the Asia‐Pacific, the author says, because “too little time has passed since the interests of these two former adversaries collided in the region.” Russia has the longest Pacific coastline and borders with China, Japan, Korea and Mongolia. Despite the end of the Cold War, however, Russia is still not an integrated participant in Northeast Asian economic cooperation. Vladimir Ivanov is a Visiting Fellow at the Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia in Niigata. He argues that Russia has made a clear choice between “guns and growth,” and that the country should be allowed to come in from the cold and join this region's development.     

Coming to terms with neopatrimonialism: Soviet and American nation-building projects in Afghanistan

The author examines how patrimonial forms of domination, as conceived in a Weberian sense, came to pervade the formal bureaucratic apparatuses developed under both Soviet Marxist–Leninist (from the late 1970s) and American-coalition liberal designs (since 2001), creating hybrid states defined by neopatrimonialism. Drawing lessons from the survival and eventual collapse of the Najibullah regime following the 1989 withdrawal of Soviet forces, the article finds that the continued extension of aid and arms, and not the presence of foreign military forces, proved most effectual in sustaining the Afghan leader's patronage-based grip on power. Arguing that the contemporary regime of Hamid Karzai has likewise adopted a neopatrimonial-type rule, these findings have clear implications for current American policy in Afghanistan. America, Afghanistan's ultimate patron, can better ensure stability in the region by extending aid to Karzai than by continuing a large and costly military occupation of the region.     

Russia,the death penalty,and Europe: the ambiguities of influence

Studies of capital punishment worldwide investigate how international influence affects the death penalty. We analyze European influence on the death penalty in Russia over the imperial, Soviet, and post-Soviet periods, using two parameters: the changing mechanisms of influence in each period and the death penalty's significance in the broader spectrum of punitive violence. On the first parameter, in the tsarist period, European influence on Russian policy was “productive” – exercised through prestige, moral suasion, and “diffusion.” In the Soviet period, European influence was blocked. In the post-Soviet period, European influence is coercive, as the Council of Europe has unsuccessfully sought to compel Russia to abolish its death penalty. On the second parameter, the death penalty in Russia has always been only one of many forms of state-sanctioned punitive killing. In consequence, the Council's involvement in Russia's death penalty has produced an incoherent policy outcome and has entangled the Council in Russia's authoritarian politics. Russia thus exemplifies the hazards of external involvement in death penalty abolition.     

Russian Studies Without Russia

A distinguished American specialist on Soviet and Russian politics addresses the lessons of the seven years leading to Russia's crash of 1998 for how US scholars, journalists, and politicians have analyzed Russia under Yeltsin. Citing a wide range of academic and journalistic sources, including materials published from October 1998 to January 1999, the article surveys and criticizes the mainstream concepts employed for comprehending social, political, and economic life in that country. It proposes both an alternative vocabulary and different comparative references for explaining and predicting developmental trends in Russia.     

Notes and news

Russia and Asia have an ambiguous relationship. More than half of Russia is geographically in Asia and much of its history, too. Peter the Great switched Russia's main focus to Europe. But by the middle of the 19^th century the “Slavophiles” were contesting that “Westernising” view as the Russian Empire expanded. After World War II, the USSR played an important ideological role in Asia, until the failure of the invasion of Afghanistan. The ensuing collapse of the USSR resulted in a smaller, much more “European” Russia, which the West was nonetheless not eager to embrace. Today, the dynamic economies of Asia offer opportunities, not least as a market for Russia's energy exports. But the legacy of Peter the Great lives on.     

Russian politics in a time of uncertainty∗

It is not only the vitality of the incumbent political regime but the very basis of the democratic system in Russia that has been tested by the recent economic crisis, argues Sergei Smolnikov, Visiting Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo. So far, the regime has reacted to the situation by recruiting the old nomenklatura to manage the country. Since it is forced to maneuver in a political and economic environment that is qualitatively different from the Soviet era, the nomenklatura might eventually attempt to reconstruct this environment. Smolnikov highlights a growing disparity between the major structural elements of the regime's foreign policy. If exacerbated, this trend could lead to a deterioration of Russia's relations with the West, and might eventually make Russia an international outcast. Strategically, this situation is dangerous not only for the future of democracy in Russia but also for international security. To ensure democracy in Russia remains vibrant, the West should not reduce its commitment to engage Russia by economic and political means.     

Russia and the Kurds: A Soft-Power Tool for the Kremlin?

Russia has been the Kurds’ patron for more than two centuries, motivated primarily by the cynical desire to use them against adversaries in broader great-power games while casting itself as a champion of the Kurdish cause. Russia's longstanding and multifaceted relationship with the Kurds demonstrates that when it comes to geopolitics, the United States has more than brute force to contend with. The Russian state also utilizes soft power as an authoritarian state defines it: a tool of pragmatic leverage. While the Kurds are not a monolith, they are anxious about the trajectory of US politics and feel they cannot rely on anyone. The Russian state has opportunities to undermine American interests in places such as Syria and Iraq through its connections with Kurdish groups. This article reviews tsarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet policies toward the Kurds, including Kurdish communities in Russia. It concludes with a discussion about implications for the United States, given that Moscow will not let go of its Kurdish card, including in the context of the Ukraine invasion.     

Monotowns and the political economy of industrial restructuring in Russia

During the 2008–2009 economic crisis, Russia's monotowns – one-industry towns left from the Soviet era – gained widespread attention as potential sources of social protest and unrest. Will such worries resurface under current economic conditions? While fears about monotowns were exaggerated during the last economic crisis, Russia's leadership has reason to remain concerned. Despite the dramatic transformations of the last two decades, Russia's post-Soviet industrial landscape has largely survived intact, leaving a significant number of monotowns with unprofitable enterprises in a precarious position. Yet given its emphasis on social stability, we can expect the government to continue subsidies, both explicit and hidden, that seek to maintain employment and avoid social conflict, but that preserve the country's inefficient industrial geography.     

The Contemporary Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership: Challenges and Opportunities for the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

Today many aspects of the Sino-Russian relationship are positive. The “strategic cooperative partnership” is supported by the Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation, as well as membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and a shared commitment to a multipolar world. Nevertheless, the economic foundation of the relationship is weak, energy cooperation has not reached its potential, and the two states have competing interests in Central Asia. Thus, this article argues that although the Sino-Russian relationship is multifaceted and based on practical considerations, there are nevertheless factors that limit the relationship. China and Russia have links with the West that sometimes interfere in their relationship with each other. Moreover, the legacy of history remains in the background of the relationship. Finally, Russia's demographic decline, combined with China's economic growth, creates questions for Russians regarding their long-term security vis-à-vis China.     

Russian Policy to Asian Regionalism

In the last fifteen years Russian government policy has seen dramatic changes from almost complete leaning towards the West to a more balanced approach taking into account Russia's interests in Asia. This reversal of attitude was dictated by internal and external factors which, if not addressed, could severely compromise Russian overall position in the world and internal development of its eastern parts. The Russian federal government and their local authorities' policies towards regional groupings in Asia reflect their desire to take part in integration processes. Despite certain achievements in this field, obstacles remain on the road to full-fledged Russian participation benefiting Russia as well as other states. The problems emanate both from internal and external reasons. There are numerous discussions in the expert community on bow to deal with issues hindering economic development of the Russian Far East but they all agree that it cannot be achieved without the active interaction with Asian neighbors.     

Russia's energy governance transitions and implications for enhanced cooperation with China,Japan, and South Korea

A Tokyo-based economist and a noted western economic geographer, both specializing in the hydrocarbon resources of Russia, apply the framework of governance studies in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the recent changes in the country's energy policy-making. The authors argue that, unlike the international relations paradigm prevailing in studies of Russia's energy policy, the country's multiple roles in the international energy arena (as producer, consumer, exporter, importer, and transit state) warrant a more nuanced approach, reflecting Russian energy policy's flexibility over time and diversity across space. This paper endeavors, therefore, to apply a political economy and governance perspective to an understanding of the significant changes in Russia's energy policy-making regarding its dynamic energy relations with the Northeast Asia (NEA; China, Japan, and South Korea). In exploring the complex interactions between Russia's internal energy policy-making and its emerging energy relations in NEA, the authors addresses three key questions, namely: (1) how Russia's Asian energy policy corresponds to its domestic needs, (2) how much coherence in energy governance and cooperation exists between Russia and the Northeast Asian states at the institutional and organizational levels, and (3) the extent to which Russia's expectations for increased energy cooperation with the Northeast Asian states are likely to materialize.