Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?

This article analyzes how U.S. climate change politics and policy making are changing in the public, private and civil society sectors, and how such changes are likely to influence U.S. federal policies. It outlines the current status of U.S. climate change action and explores four overlapping pathways of policy change: (1) the strategic demonstration of the feasibility of climate change action; (2) the creation and expansion of markets; (3) policy diffusion and learning; and (4) the creation and promulgation of norms about the need for more aggressive climate change action. These four pathways seek to fruitfully draw from rationalist and constructivist approaches to policy analysis, without collapsing or confusing the different logics. Building on this analysis, it predicts that future federal U.S. climate policy will include six major components: (1) A national cap on GHG emissions; (2) A national market based cap‐and‐trade GHG emissions trading scheme; (3) Mandatory renewable energy portfolio standards; (4) Increased national product standards for energy efficiency; (5) Increased vehicle fleet energy efficiency standards; and (6) Increased federal incentives for research and development on energy efficiency issues and renewable energy development. In addition, expanding federal climate policy may bring about significant changes in U.S. foreign policy as U.S. international re‐engagement on climate change is likely to occur only after the development of more significant federal policy.     

Does Power Sector Deregulation Promote or Discourage Renewable Energy Policy? Evidence from the States, 1991–2012

Both within the United States and across the world, power sector deregulation has changed the environment in which governments formulate renewable energy policy. Utilizing data from U.S. states for the 1991–2012 period, this article shows that there is no difference in the adoption of new renewable energy policy in states that have and have not already gone through power sector deregulation. However, the evidence also shows that governments formulate renewable energy policy as part of a legislative package for power sector deregulation in a dynamic we call issue linkage. While power sector deregulation is neither an impediment nor an impetus to renewable energy policy, the strategic challenge of passing deregulatory legislation requires concessions to constituencies that prefer renewables. For policy makers, the results are important because they indicate that deeper reforms in electricity generation are consistent with more ambitious renewable energy policy.     

Nationalism,identity and landscape in contemporary Galicia

In escaping the territorial trap of the nation-state, political geography has devoted mounting attention to sub-state geographies of nationalism. This paper traces the history, geographies, and politics of Spanish Galicia, in light of the contradictory processes of contemporary European integration and secessionism. After a review of sub-state nationalism, it contextualizes Galician nationalism within Spanish regionalism. It offers an historical overview that highlights the uniqueness of Galician culture and explicates the roots of the current nationalist movement. Finally, it delves into contemporary Galician politics, including its electoral dimensions, cyberpolitics, and banal nationalism, in which territory plays a decisive role.     

Stern Review 2.0? The Report of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate

Eight years after the launch of the Stern Review of the economics of climate change, a new major report on economic growth and climate change (Better Growth, Better Climate) has been published by a Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, chaired by Nicholas Stern. While this comprehensive review of recent evidence has some overlap with the original Stern Review, it focuses more on the short‐term costs and benefits of action needed to reduce carbon emissions in specific parts of the economy such as cities, energy and agriculture. Perhaps the most noted conclusion of the report is that policies which governments should be pursuing anyway, because they will reduce pollution, improve health, raise productivity and reduce congestion, will cut carbon emission by between 50 and 90 per cent of what is needed to get to a 2°C pathway. This is an important report that will have considerable influence, although it has had lower public visibility than the original Stern Review. However, it also points to the need for a better understanding of the politics of climate policy, and why the opportunities to adopt policies that have multiple long‐term public benefits do not get taken. While Better Growth, Better Climate does have a chapter on the political economy of change, the analysis is limited, and could be deepened by bringing in the growing literature on the politics of climate policy.     

Sub-state diplomacy: Understanding the international opportunity structures

Developing explanations for how sub-state governments are active internationally is central to understanding their unexpected growth as international actors. Building upon Lecours’ work [2002, Paradiplomacy: reflections on the foreign policy and international relations of regions, International Negotiation, Vol.7, pp.91–114], this article develops an expanded historical institutionalist analysis of the international agency of sub-state governments. Its original empirical contribution is utilizing this approach to examine within case variation across four contrasting policy domains in a case study of Wales. Reflecting the European Union sub-state mobilization literature, levels of constitutional powers are constrained in their capacity to account for Welsh sub-state international agency. Instead, the article highlights strong variation in the opportunity structures shaping sub-state diplomacy across policy domains. The article argues that institutional continuity and change, the prevalence of ‘path dependence’, can differ significantly between policy domains in sub-state diplomacy, argues for an expanded multi-level framework recognizing the impact of non-governmental organizations and international institutional opportunity structures and confirms historical institutionalism’s ability to enrich understanding of agency-structure relationships.     

The roadmap to net-zero emission: Do geopolitical risk and energy transition matter?

Global crises have heightened policy uncertainties and efforts to address global climate change. Limited evidence exists in the literature on geopolitical risk's direct and indirect roles in addressing global emissions. In this study, we examine whether geopolitical risk could impede or facilitate efforts to attain a net-zero emissions target through energy transition using panel data for 42 countries from 1990 to 2020. Various econometric techniques were applied in this study to present robust findings and reliable conclusions. Estimates from the Driscoll-Kraay, Lewbel two-stage least squares and method of moment regression techniques consistently showed that countries' geopolitical risk directly increases emissions (total greenhouse gas, carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide). At the same time, energy transition, measured with renewable energy consumption, mitigates these emissions. In addition, evidence from the partial linear functional-coefficient model technique indicates that renewable energy consumption consistently mitigates emissions when geopolitical is minimal (at a minimum and mean level). However, the role of renewable energy consumption in reducing emissions becomes weaker when geopolitical risk is heightened—thus, when geopolitical risk reaches its maximum level. We recommend that efforts to sustain renewable energy transition and maintain geopolitical stability are vital for achieving net-zero emissions and climate change mitigation.     

Short‐Term Emergency or Recurring Climatic Extreme: A Rural Town Perspective on Drought Policy and Programs

Drought is most often encountered as a long‐running and recurring climatic extreme; one that can have devastating environmental, social and economic impacts. While drought is a routine feature of the Australian climate, the politics of drought are often highly reactive, and drought support programs are notoriously ad hoc and ineffective. In the context of emergent global recognition of climate change, drought has received renewed political attention that presents significant opportunities for change. In this paper, we review the context of drought policy in Australia. Yet we seek to provide a unique contribution to current debates by considering the perspectives of those people at the forefront of drought; in particular, those people living and working in small rural towns in drought‐affected areas. The aim of the paper is to use a case study to present an account of drought policies and programs from those who are the targets of such interventions.     

The Spreading of Innovation: State Adoptions of Energy and Climate Change Policy

The American states are engaged in a variety of policy efforts to mitigate climate change and alter energy usage. While a number of studies have considered the reasons for adoption of renewable energy and climate change policies, they typically consider only one policy in isolation. This study examines policy adoption of 14 energy and climate change programs in a pooled event history analysis. Our primary research questions consider average effects of horizontal policy diffusion, while also identifying factors that vary across policy type. We offer a method of testing whether predictors vary across policies and use this test to incorporate interactions by policy in the statistical analysis. Our results indicate that many of the primary drivers of adoption are political in nature, including state ideology, environmental interest group membership, and diffusion via ideologically similar neighbors. In addition, we find that given policy heterogeneity, a number of determinants vary by policy type, though differences are in magnitude rather than direction.     

The Limits and Opportunities of Networks: Municipalities and Canadian Climate Change Policy

Research on climate change policy and politics has become increasingly focused on the actions and influence of subnational governments. In North America, this attention has been particularly focused on why subnational governments have taken action in the absence of national leadership, what effect action might have on future national climate policy, and whether the collective action of networks of municipal governments are reshaping and challenging the character of national and global climate governance. This paper examines Canadian municipal climate in light of the absence of a comprehensive and effective climate national strategy. The paper considers various reasons why local governments in Canada have not been central players in national plans, and why their actions have not been more influential nationally. The paper argues that the potential influence of Canadian municipalities on national climate policy is weak, given the loose nature of the network and the long-held structural view that municipalities are not significant units of political analysis in national political and policy debates. The paper concludes by considering the constraints and opportunities of subnational climate networks and municipal network analysis.     

Political Myths in Climate Leadership: The Case of Danish Climate and Energy Pioneership

Climate leadership is important for the transition to a low‐carbon economy, where some countries are seen as leaders because of their ambitious climate and energy policies. Climate leadership is dynamic and evolves over time to become a political myth, however, which governments use in their policy strategies. Changes in governments lead to new climate and energy strategies that affect the respective countries' leadership positions. This article links the growing literature on environmental/climate leadership and the political myth literature. Specifically, it draws on the environmental/climate leadership framework to analyse the connection between political myths and the climate and energy policy strategies of governments to understand how the changing interpretation of the political myth influences leadership. The article uses Denmark as a case study because of the consensus in the literature on it being a climate and energy policy pioneer. This article analyses how Danish governments interpret the political myth of Danish climate and energy pioneership and how their policies influence the Danish leadership position, concluding that whilst the continued reinterpretations of the political myth of leadership do not always reflect the original myth, the myth remains important for government claims to leadership.     

Integration of Environmental Concerns in a Trans‐Atlantic Perspective: The Case of Renewable Electricity

The issue of integrating environmental concerns into energy policy decision making is increasingly addressed, not least related to climate change. Although the United States, unlike the EU, did not sign the Kyoto Protocol, several U.S. states promote renewable electricity (RES‐E), and some of these initiatives are linked to climate‐change mitigation efforts. The present article assesses in this connection the six New England states of the United States, comparing their efforts of integrating RES‐E with climate change to the Nordic countries in Europe. In order to explain different approaches, the article focuses on the importance of different EU and U.S. multilevel governing structures. The analysis indicates that the New England states' RES‐E promotion thus far has not been substantially integrated with climate‐change concerns, whereas in the EU's more top‐down approach, climate change figures more prominently vis‐à‐vis RES‐E. EU policies represent an increasingly important driver for the Nordic countries. In the United States, on the other hand, it remains an open question as to how future federal policy efforts will relate to existing policies at the state level.     

The narrative properties of ideology: the adversarial turn and climate skepticism in the USA

A central concern in policy studies is understanding how multiple, contending groups in society interact, deliberate, and forge agreements over policy issues. Often, public discourse turns from engagement into impasse, as in the fractured politics of climate policy in the USA. Existing theories are unclear about how such an “adversarial turn” develops. We theorize that an important aspect of the adversarial turn is the evolution of a group’s narrative into what can be understood as an ideology, the formation of which is observable through certain textual-linguistic properties. Analysis “of” these narrative properties elucidates the role of narrative in fostering (1) coalescence around a group ideology, and (2) group isolation and isolation of ideological coalitions from others’ influence. By examining a climate skeptical narrative, we demonstrate how to analyze ideological properties of narrative, and illustrate the role of ideological narratives in galvanizing and, subsequently, isolating groups in society. We end the piece with a reflection on further issues suggested by the narrative analysis, such as the possibility that climate skepticism is founded upon a more “genetic” meta-narrative that has roots in social issues far removed from climate, which means efforts at better communicating climate change science may not suffice to support action on climate change.     

Transparency in multilateral climate politics: Furthering (or distracting from) accountability?

This article analyzes the interplay between transparency and accountability in multilateral climate politics. The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for a “pledge‐and‐review” approach to collective climate action with an “enhanced transparency framework” as a key pillar of the Agreement. By making visible who is doing what, transparency is widely assumed to be vital to holding countries to account and building trust. We explore whether transparency is generating such effects in this context, by developing and applying an analytical framework to examine the link between transparency and accountability. We find that the scope and practices of climate transparency reflect (rather than necessarily reduce) broader conflicts over who should be held to account to whom and about what, with regard to responsibility and burden sharing for ambitious climate action. We conclude that the relationship between transparency and accountability is less straightforward than assumed, and that the transformative promise of transparency needs to be reconsidered in this light.     

Comparative Climate Change Policy and Federalism: An Overview

This commentary provides an overview of the four papers in this issue of Review of Policy Research on the politics of climate change. The papers all address in one way or another aspects of how federal‐type systems are dealing with the collective action and multilevel governance issues of climate change policy. The comparative study of federal systems provides insight into how domestic authority is so often overlapping and divided when dealing with greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Federal arrangements offer a rich array of norms, institutions, and practices for tackling these problems. Federal systems grapple continuously with the kinds of issues that are the most intractable in the climate change case, such as overcoming interregional differences of interests and values. A common federal feature is competition among subnational governments and between them and national or federated governments over climate change policy, which has been especially significant in the United States and in Canada in the relative absence of national action––although soberingly, the whole is as yet nowhere near as great as the sum of the parts. More significant, but rarer is the achievement of tighter coordination in federal systems achieved through intergovernmental co‐decision, as seen in the European Community and Australia. This has been accomplished in large part due to a consensus among all intergovernmental parties on the nature of the problem and congruence with the existing international regime, characteristics missing in the North American context.     

Thirty Years of Territorial Politics

For many years, territorial politics was neglected in political science under the influence of a modernist paradigm according to which territory gives way to function as a principle of social and political organisation. In the last 30 years it has received more attention as territorial political movements have made an impact. This has provoked a reconsideration not just of the present but also of the past, as scholars have identified the persistence of territorial politics even within unitary states. There is a continuing separation of the study of local and urban from regional politics, although the respective literatures address similar issues and use similar concepts. The ‘new regionalism’ literature examines the emergence of territorial systems of action under the impact of state transformation and transnational integration. There are marked differences in territorial politics in western and east-central Europe, not because of primordial ethnic characteristics, but because of the evolution of the state in the post-war era.     

The problem with the “portfolio approach” in American energy policy

One predominant theme in American energy and electricity policy is the idea of a “portfolio approach,” or that society must embrace an assortment of different energy technologies simultaneously. This article argues that such a strategy, in practice, is (a) biased, since fossil fuel and nuclear technologies have been heavily favored; (b) opaque, obscuring the different full social costs of energy systems; (c) inequitable, promoting technologies that contribute to climate change; and (d) unsophisticated, ignoring important qualitative differences among technologies. The article estimates the full social costs of electricity generation, concluding that the five cheapest forms of electricity generation are all renewable resources; that intermittency is not a reason to reject renewable energy technologies; that nuclear power has significant technical and environmental problems, especially from a greenhouse gas emissions and climate change perspective; and that “clean coal” and carbon capture and sequestration technologies face significant challenges to deployment.     

Defying the traditional theses: Intergovernmental relations on immigrant integration in Belgium

ABSTRACT

This article considers the features of intergovernmental relations (IGR) on immigrant integration in Belgium and critically examines the dynamics that shape them. The characteristics of IGR on immigrant integration in Belgium are shown to vary over time and differ across regions and sub-policy areas (immigrant reception policies and anti-discrimination). The comparative case study indicates that the primary traditional theses of the international comparative IGR literature, namely classical institutionalism and party politics, do not provide insights into the nature and mechanisms of IGR on immigrant integration in Belgium. Less established variables like European integration and sub-state claims for distinctiveness constitute key explanatory variables. While European integration explains the increase of IGR over time, notwithstanding the appearance of party incongruence, sub-state claims for distinctiveness enlighten the more conflictual nature of IGR with Flanders, even in cases of more party congruence than for Francophone authorities.     

Rethinking Local Politics: Towards a Cultural Political Economy of Entrepreneurial Cities

The territorial dimensions of the state are undergoing substantial changes. Political entities, such as cities and regions, are gaining in importance. Described as entrepreneurial city politics, policy-makers of contemporary cities are using new, economically oriented strategies to strengthen their city's position in interurban competition. Despite this state of affairs, social science still tends to treat local politics as equal to sub-national politics. This has especially been the case in Scandinavia, where local governments have traditionally functioned as an extension of the central welfare state. Since processes associated with entrepreneurial city politics are manifested in Scandinavia as well, this article argues that there is a need to rethink what local politics ultimately is about. The article proposes the ideas recently formed at the ‘Lancaster School of Cultural Political Economy’ as an approach with which to reconceptualise local politics. In the final section, some remarks on a future research agenda, centred on the cultural political economy of contemporary city politics, are presented.     

Climate Policy,Energy Resources and Subnational Policy-Making: Comparative Policy Study of Hawaii and Victoria

Abstract

This paper considers key drivers to climate policy development with an emphasis on the role of a jurisdiction’s underlying energy resource. The states of Hawaii in the United States and Victoria in Australia provide an insightful comparative case study given their differing energy resources: Hawaii has no native fossil fuel resources but abundant renewable energy options while Victoria has an economy traditionally reliant on cheap, plentiful coal. The Advocacy Coalition Framework is applied to analyze why the two states, despite the different incentives provided by their energy resources, developed similar climate policies in the earlier period of policy response to global warming. Analysis finds the stable parameter of energy resources is counterbalanced by other policy drivers including public opinion, leadership and, in particular, features of policy-making particular to the subnational level that provide a different context for climate policy development to that offered at the national level.