内生增长理论与韩国长期经济增长

韩国的经济增长基本支持内生增长模型的理论预测。新古典增长理论和内生增长理论在很大程度上是互相补充而非彼此替代的经济理论——新古典增长理论是内生增长理论的基础,内生增长理论是新古典内增长理论的进一步发展。     

俄东部地区开发与中国东北振兴的互动发展

2003年,中国政府做出了振兴东北老工业基地的战略性决策。与此同时,俄罗斯政府将东部地区作为重点开发区域。中国东北老工业基地与俄罗斯东部地区毗邻,双方具有广泛开展交流合作的基础和条件。中俄毗邻地区同步开发,为两地的经济互动发展提供了极好的机遇。东北老工业基地的振兴为俄罗斯东部地区的发展提供了商机,有助于俄罗斯东部地区经济的发展。同时,俄罗斯东部地区也是东北振兴不可或缺的舞台,双方的交流与合作能够对东北老工业基地的振兴起到积极的促进作用。     

东北振兴与东北亚合作联动论

在全球化和区域经济一体化成为世界经济发展主流趋势的国际大背景下,东北老工业基地振兴与东北亚合作已经形成了联动发展的趋势。东北振兴为东北亚搭建了区域经济合作的广阔平台;东北亚合作为东北振兴营造了良好的国际环境。科学而合理的制度供给是东北振兴与东北亚联动发展的基本要求,建立跨行政区的东北振兴协调机制或组织,加快东北亚自由贸易区建设,是促进东北振兴和东北亚合作联动的有效制度安排。     

借俄罗斯经济复苏契机振兴东北老工业基地

近年来,俄罗斯经济持续增长,呈现出明显的经济复苏的新气象,过度依赖自然资源的经济增长模式正在改变,吸引外资力度在不断增大,这一切对东北老工业基地的振兴产生巨大的影响。尤其是俄东部大开发和大型基础设施的建设,更是直接给东北振兴带来了新的机遇。东北地区应借助这一有利时机,发挥自身优势,确定“桥头堡”战略,把东北建设成为对俄产业链条的核心、贸易基地、经贸活动的咨询中介中心,推动东北老工业基地的振兴。     

东北亚区域合作与中国东北振兴的互动发展

自党中央、国务院提出东北老工业基地振兴战略以来，“振兴东北”成了十六大以来的一个热点话题。中国东北老工业基地处于东北亚腹地，具有与东北亚地区广泛开展交流合作的基础扣条件。东北老工业基地的振兴为东北亚各国的发展提供了商机，将给东北亚增添新的活力，有助于东北亚地区经济交流与合作的发展。同时，东北亚是东北振兴不可或缺的舞台，与其合作能够对东北老工业基地的振兴起到积极的促进作用。东北老工业基地的振兴与东北亚地区的合作是紧密联系在一起的，二者是相互促进、共同发展的关系。     

东北黑土区现代农业发展研究

东北黑土区资源丰富,是我国重要的商品粮、石油、化工、钢铁、汽车、森工等生产基地,在我国国民经济建设中占有重要的地位。振兴东北老工业基地,不只是要改造东北地区的老工业,而是要盘活整个东北经济,从而改变东北地区的经济面貌。在这个过程中,农业在经济中的地位绝对不能忽视,只有发达的农业才能很好地为工业与服务业提供基础性保障。辩证地看待农业与工业、服务业之间的关系,更好地理解振兴东北老工业基地战略部署的内涵。只有推行现代农业,为农业经济的发展注入活力,才能推动农业经济的长远发展,才能保证东北老工业基地经济的全面振兴。     

东北老工业基地振兴与东北亚区域合作

东北老工业基地在中国经济发展过程中做出了重要贡献。改革开放以后 ,东北老工业基地被边缘化了。充分利用有利的国外市场和资源对于振兴东北老工业基地具有十分重要的意义。把中国东北的发展置于东北亚区域内 ,有利于东北地区在开放的环境中获得振兴和发展。同时 ,中国东北地区的振兴也为周边国家的发展提供了机会 ,能够进一步促进东北亚区域经济合作的发展。     

新世纪俄罗斯经济改革战略评述

90年代不符合俄罗斯国情的经济自由化改革非但没有带来经济的现代化，反而导致了经济的严重衰退。在这种艰难的背景下，俄罗斯新总统普京提出了复兴经济，振兴国家的强国新战略。1999年和2000年俄罗斯经济的回升为普京新战略的实施提供了有利条件，但这种回升并非持续的，不是由内生因素引起的，从凯恩斯经济理论来看，俄罗斯并不存在经济复苏的内生机制。即使每年保持5％的经济增长率，到2010年GDP总量也只有中国2000年的一半。     

振兴东北经济四要素:结构·体制·资本·人才

制约和影响东北经济发展的因素很多,最根本的有四大要素,即:结构、体制、资本、人才。调整结构并使之优化,是振兴东北经济的重要基础;深化体制改革,建立市场经济新体制,是振兴东北经济的根本保障;聚集资本,加大投资力度,是振兴东北经济的有效途径;汇集人才,重用人才,则是振兴东北经济的关键所在。只有遵从物质利益规律,“四轮”联动,才能如“捷达”车一样驶入振兴东北的“快车道”。     

后金融危机时期《东北地区振兴规划》的实施与东北亚国际合作

国务院2007年8月正式批复的《东北地区振兴规划》首次提出了东北振兴战略的总体目标，进一步完善了振兴东北经济政策。按照《规划》，将调整进口税收优惠政策，银行机构对东北地区符合信贷条件的项目将加大信贷支持力度，这就为东北地区扩大对外开放，加强国际合作，特别是加强对东北亚区域的经济合作提供了金融保障。     

Fast,slow and endless variation drives global development

This article explores the dynamics of institutional adaptation in fast-growing, highly interconnected polities in the developing world, and challenges the thesis in modernization theory which posits that economic growth and thus higher per-capita income lead over time to democracy. One mechanism often proposed to explain this link is the idea that economic growth and higher per capita income in a society lead individual citizens in that society to become more receptive to democratic values and norms, and that this receptivity can pave the way for the birth of democracy. Yet evidence increasingly demonstrates that the link is at best tenuous and often not empirically valid. Why have many fast-growing economies and modernizing societies not made a transition to democracy, as predicted by modernization theory? This paper addresses this question, with ideas from complex adaptive systems and evolutionary social psychology, as well as case analyses of Turkey and China.     

Endogenous development: some issues of concern

This article aims to provide knowledge and practical guidance to managing and implementing within the framework of endogenous development. The paper gives a theoretical overview of endogenous development, linked to issues of globalisation and poverty, and ongoing work among European institutions and academics that suggest shifts in Europe from exogenous to endogenous development approaches. It then makes a case for a paradigm shift – an African alternative to modernisation and development, namely endogenous development – using experiences with two NGOs in Ghana and Zimbabwe to locate theory in practice. The paper concludes with some empirical pre-requisites for conducting endogenous development with rural communities.

This article is prompted by the requests of my students at the University for Development Studies, Ghana, for knowledge and information, and practical guidance to managing and implementing within the framework of endogenous development. I start by giving a theoretical overview of the concept of endogenous development and link it with current issues of globalisation and poverty. I briefly mention current work among European institutions and academics that suggest shifts in Europe from exogenous to endogenous development approaches. Encouraged by such developments, I then make a case for a paradigm shift – an African alternative to modernisation and development, endogenous development. I bring to light the experiences with endogenous development in two NGOs – CECIK (Ghana) and AZTREC (Zimbabwe) – in order to locate theory in practice (praxis). I conclude by providing some empirical prerequisites for conducting endogenous development with rural communities, which demonstrate one way of conducting experimentation with farmers within the context of endogenous development.     

和谐世界视角下中国与世界关系的新变化与战略新选择

和谐世界代表了人类的美好理想,适应了时代潮流和人类社会未来的发展方向,否定了"强权即是公理"的霸权逻辑,主张通过民主协商、互利共赢、平等协作、求同存异的方式推动人类社会向和平繁荣的方向发展.和谐世界理论具有丰富而全面的内涵.这一理论也成为处理中国与世界关系的重要指导原则,我们要努力实现不同国家间经济、政治、安全、文明的和谐发展,建设民主、公正、和睦、包容的世界,从而实现"建设持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界"的总体目标.     

中印贸易关系的国际政治经济学分析

国际政治经济学为我们理解国际贸易提供了一个清晰简易的视角,通过这一视角,我们能够更好地理解国际贸易理论,并在此指导下更好地分析国际社会上的贸易行为。中国和印度的贸易额迅速增长,是对方增长速度最快的贸易伙伴之一。两国的产业结构既存在互补的方面,也存在竞争的一面。本文试通过国际政治经济学视角下的国际贸易理论,从影响两国贸易关系的经济和政治两方面的因素对中印贸易关系进行分析。     

政府主导型展会发展路径初探——以中国—东盟博览会为例

近年来,中国会展业发展迅速,政府主导型展会占据主导地位是现阶段中国会展业的突出特征。但有些政府主导型展会由于不了解展会发展的内在市场规律,造成一些展会经贸成效不显著、政府资源浪费严重的现象。本文以我国发展较成功的政府主导型展会中国—东盟博览会为例,分析其取得成功的优势,并以其为借鉴对政府主导型展会的发展提供初步建议。     

Power Transitions,Status Dissatisfaction,and War: The Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895

Although power transition theory offers a powerful model of international conflict, scholars have not adequately operationalized the theory's key variable of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the status quo. We argue that status dissatisfaction is an important component of a rising state's overall dissatisfaction with the system. We apply our revised power transition framework to the 1894–1895 Sino-Japanese War. Japan's revisionist foreign policy was driven by economic and security threats posed by China's control over Korea, dissatisfaction with Japan's place in the China-dominated East Asian hierarchy, the hope for recognition as a great power by the West, status-related domestic pressures, and by belief change that was endogenous to shifting power. Despite several earlier crises, Japan made the decision for war only after it had achieved parity with China, which is consistent with power transition theory's hypothesis that under conditions of shifting power, parity is a necessary condition for war.     

Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note

This study represents an attempt at further developing the diversionary theory of force. The analysis covers the period 1949 to 1994 using a simultaneous system of equations that treat presidential approval and force as endogenous variables. After controlling for opportunities and Soviet/Russian crisis behavior, the model reveals a rally effect and that unemployment has a positive effect on force levels. I discuss how presidential decisions to divert are made in the context of poliheuristic decision processing.     

Ideology after the end of ideology. China and the quest for autocratic legitimation

In political science literature on contemporary China, ideology is mostly regarded as a dogmatic straitjacket to market reforms that has been worn out over the years of economic success, an obsolete legacy of the past waiting to be cast off in the course of the country's transition toward capitalism. This article posits, however, that ideology still plays an indispensable role in the quest to legitimize authoritarian rule in contemporary China, and that it does so precisely due to its high degree of adaptability. Based on David Beetham's theoretical model of political legitimacy, three legitimating functions of ideology that demand the constant adaptation of party theory and official language are introduced. Presenting various examples of reformulations of party theory and official language from the beginning of the reform period up to the present, the article demonstrates how the party regime relies on ideology to constantly reproduce its legitimacy, as well as the pitfalls of this reliance. It argues that ideology in contemporary China should be analysed not as a matter of belief but of playing by the rules of the official language game, and it shows how ideology is deployed as a set of practices and incentives for the proper performance of the political elite.     

中国与智利关系40年回顾

2010年12月15日是中国与智利建交40周年纪念日。智利是第一个与中国建交的南美国家。中智两国关系在40年的发展中创造了中拉关系发展过程中多个第一的传奇,中智两国在政治交往、经贸关系及制度化安排等方面还代表着中拉关系发展的水平,并成为中国与拉美国家发展互鉴的典范。两国之间天然的互补性、持续的经济增长及开放进程是推动中智关系发展的主要因素,但最重要的是两国领导人的战略性推动。中智关系也存在一些中拉关系发展中普遍存在的问题,如贸易结构、贸易与投资、政治与经济、文化教育和人文交流与政治经济的不平衡。然而,这种不平衡问题不会阻碍中智关系未来的发展,反而为中智关系未来发展指明了方向。