21世纪初拉丁美洲现代化进程初步评析

最近10年是拉美国家在经济全球化迅猛推进和国际格局深刻变化的背景下,通过不断调整与改革,大力推进现代化进程的10年,预示着21世纪拉美现代化进程拥有了一个良好开局;未来10年是拉美国家在新的国际格局下进一步推进现代化进程的关键阶段,部分国家能否完成现代化进程至关重要。尽管目前拉美国家面临着或多或少的现代化陷阱,但从长远看,作为一个发展秉赋高、发展潜力大的地区,其现代化进程将会在探索中不断向前推进。真正实现现代化,仍将是拉美各国长期努力的主要目标。     

中拉关系与重视拉美"无形资源"的开发

人文交流是中拉关系的基础。在发展中拉关系的过程中,我们不仅应该重视拉美的资源和市场,更应该重视对拉美现代化经验的总结。中国和拉美国家都是发展中国家,都处在现代化的进程之中。而拉美国家是在第三世界中最早获得独立的国家,也是最早开始探索现代化道路的国家。拉美国家所经历的现代化道路曲折艰难,积累了丰富的经验教训,这是一笔宝贵的无形资源,有待于我们的开发和利用。     

拉美政治现代化进程新探

本文较系统地总结了拉美三次现代化浪潮中政治发展的历史经验 ,回答了政治学研究中关于“西方民主普世论”是否有道理的问题。作者认为 ,拉美现代化进程中反复出现“民主—专制”周期性交替的现象以及近年来不断发生政治危机的事实都证明 ,西方的资产阶级代议制民主政治并不符合拉美国家现代化建设的需要 ;拉美国家政治现代化的目标不应该是“移植”或“嫁接”西方的民主制度 ,而是要发扬战后拉美人民的制度创新精神 ,创造出符合本国国情的、有足够政治优势来实现国家现代化的新的民主制度。     

晚清外交近代化的天然试验场:对拉丁美洲国家的外交实践

晚清时期,中国与秘鲁、巴西、墨西哥、古巴和巴拿马建立了正式外交关系。自中秘建交至清朝统治结束,除朝鲜外,清政府所有的建交国家都是拉美国家。因此,从时间进程上看,对拉美国家外交是晚清外交近代化的天然试验场。在近半个世纪的交往过程中,清政府与拉美国家双边关系的主要内容是华工问题,对拉美国家外交实践的若干特点又是其外交近代化在实质内容和程序形式上的重要体现。     

近代拉美与美国现代化发展道路不同结局的比较

拉美国家与美国同处于西半球 ,都曾经历过被沦为殖民地的历史 ,独立后又都处于欧洲中心之外的外围地位。缘何美国能在第二波现代化大潮中迅速从一个农业国转化为工业国 ,从二元国家发展成超过英国的工业化强国 ,而拉美国家的现代化进程却迟迟启而不动 ,直至 2 0世纪 30年代后 ,在第三波现代化大潮中 ,一些拉美国家的现代化进程才开始起步。拉美国家与美国在现代化发展道路上产生裂变的原因在于 :政治局势不同 ,土地占有制和所有制不同 ,农业的经营管理方式不同 ,农民在政治经济生活中的地位和作用不同 ,工业化与城市化发展的动力和方向不同 ,大量吸收外国移民所起的作用不同 ,发展交通运输业的目的和作用不同 ,拉美以出口为主的庄园和种植园与美国南方种植园的作用不同。回溯并总结近代西半球在现代化发展进程中产生裂变的原因 ,对于正在探索新的发展道路的拉美国家和其他发展中国家都具有借鉴意义     

拉美独立200周年纪念与中拉人民的共同之忧

在现代化进程中,拉美历史上最早的、影响最大的一次失误,就是独立运动未能阻止拉美民族的分裂。结果,拉美的工业革命几乎被延误了整整1个多世纪,这一把美洲分裂成"统治"与"依附"两个世界的"时间差",是拉美国家一切发展难题的根源。拉美国家无法创造第二个时间差的原因是由资本主义世界体系中现代化进程的规律决定的,资产阶级的民族自觉和民族扩张是资本主义发展的动力和手段、资本主义世界体系的中心—外围结构和中心国家强烈的排他性、资本主义国际经济秩序下后发劣势递增以及后发优势递减、经济全球化进程的周期性与后发国家发展的不稳定性这些规律的存在,决定了多数发展中国家始终无法达到发达国家水平的命运。拉美独立战争的历史经验表明,对发展中国家来说,最重要的是要善于从政治上解决问题。发展中国家为了实现国家的现代化和高速发展,必须要依靠自己的组织力量,创造自己的政治优势,保证政治和社会的稳定。当今时代,发展中国家现代化成功之路就是创建与现代社会化生产相适应的社会主义制度。     

拉美军人与政治:一项历史的考察

在拉美国家的政治发展和现代化进程中 ,军人一直发挥着重要的作用。 1 9世纪前半期 ,军人考迪罗是拉美政治的主宰者 ;1 9世纪 70年代以后 ,随着拉美国家现代化的启动 ,军人职业化有了一定程度的发展 ,但军人干政现象并未消失 ;第二次世界大战结束后 ,特别是在冷战时期 ,军事学说的变化 ,军队专业化水平的提高 ,社会和政治危机 ,促使一些拉美国家在 60年代以后建立了军人政权 ;80年代后 ,拉美实现了军人政权向文人政权的过渡 ,但真正民主的文人—军人关系的建立仍有待于实现     

民主化进程中拉美国家政治制度面临的主要挑战--对拉美国家政治不稳定的一种解释

主要观点在20世纪80年代以后政治民主化进程中,拉美一些国家的传统政党或衰落,或力量下降,一些新的政党和政治力量异军突起,许多国家的传统政党体系发生了变化.无论是传统政党制度的崩溃、政党制度的重建、国家权力机构之间的冲突,还是民众对现存政治体制的不满或政府面临的可治理性危机,都加剧了拉美国家政治的动荡,一些拉美国家的政治制度面临着一系列严峻的挑战.     

浅谈现代化进程中发展中国家政府职能的定位——以拉丁美洲国家为例

拉美国家和其他发展中国家在现代化进程中 ,其政府职能只能强化而不能弱化。现代化进程是个庞大而复杂的系统工程 ,只靠市场经济规律而没有政府干预 ,势必造成无序和失控。因此 ,政府通过经济杠杆、法律约束和必要的行政干预对现代化进程中发生的一些矛盾和冲突进行调解十分必要。在对外关系方面 ,发展中国家的政府职能也只能强化而不能弱化。要坚持“主权平等”的原则 ,反对西方发达国家借口“全球治理”干涉别国内政。总之 ,发展中国家只有制定出符合本国国情和适应新形势的发展战略 ,并从体制、制度、政策和机制等层面上强化政府的职能 ,才能使现代化进程沿着正确的方向不断向前发展。     

从拉美现代化的历史中寻求智慧与启迪——读《拉美国家现代化进程研究》

对拉美现代化进程做出一个完整和系统的梳理并非易事,这不仅因为拉美地区国家众多,而且因为现代化研究是一种跨学科的研究。国外有关学术成果中多以拉美的“经济发展”“政治发展”“工业化”“城市化”为题目,以“拉美国家的现代化”为题的研究成果则很少见。国内关于拉美现代     

Adapting violence for state survival and legitimacy: the resilience and dynamism of political repression in a democratizing South Korea*

Capacity in violence and its utilization is generally understood to be a first-order condition of the state-building process. As capacity increases and a state gains supremacy over would-be competitors, the use of violence by the state is hypothesized to decline, especially in polities that have made the democratic transition. However, we here demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the conventional wisdom is inadequate. We argue that political violence ubiquitously evolves according to the changing socio-political environment and varying tasks of the state.

Using the case of South Korea, a high-capacity, consolidated democracy, as a prism for theory building and corroboration, this study chronicles the evolution of political violence from the state’s explicit mobilization of thugs to suppress opposition at the early stage of state building through its collaboration with criminal organizations for developmental projects to the manipulation of quasi-governmental organizations after democratization in the late 1980s, coeval with the traditional use of public sources of force. We specifically look at how political development, that is, democratization, has produced new demands for – and constraints on – political violence and how post-authoritarian governments have responded.     

Legitimacy and post-conflict state-building: the undervalued role of performance legitimacy

Legitimacy is essential to state-building after conflict. Yet, the prescribed path to gaining legitimacy is often a narrow one that borrows heavily from the experiences of Western states. Elections are prescribed as an essential first step on the logic that this means gaining process legitimacy can rebuild a social contract between citizens and the state, a social contract that is rooted in democratic norms and values. This article proposes an alternative path, one that emphasises the critical role of performance legitimacy and its non-exclusive nature. Performance legitimacy is granted when citizens perceive that some or all of their basic needs are being met. The article offers a new analytical framework for understanding a state’s potential source of performance legitimacy, how non-state actors may vie with the state to seize this form of legitimacy, and what consequences this has for processes of state institution-building after conflict. In this respect, this article seeks to reorient theory and practice to a broader view of legitimacy and its critical role in post-conflict state-building.     

Back to the future: the Arab uprisings and state (re)formation in the Arab world

This article contributes to debates that aim to go beyond the “democratization” and “post-democratization” paradigms to understand change and continuity in Arab politics. In tune with calls to focus on the actualities of political dynamics, the article shows that the literatures on State Formation and Contentious Politics provide useful theoretical tools to understand change/continuity in Arab politics. It does so by examining the impact of the latest Arab uprisings on state formation trajectories in Iraq and Syria. The uprisings have aggravated a process of regime erosion – which originated in post-colonial state-building attempts – by mobilizing sectarian and ethnic identities and exposing the counties to geo-political rivalries and intervention, giving rise to trans-border movements, such as ISIS. The resulting state fragmentation has obstructed democratic transition in Syria and constrained its consolidation in Iraq.     

Elections and political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article examines attempts to use electoral politics to promote substantive political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since 1990 elections have been a key part of virtually all negotiated agreements to end civil wars. The utility of democracy for building peace is often asserted but rarely backed with long-term commitment and resources on the ground. Bosnia since 1996 is a rare exception. There, international actors sought not only to establish a democratic political system but to use electoral democracy as a tool with which to transform the nature of politics in Bosnia in short order. This article focuses on efforts to shape the development of political parties and the party system, assesses the degree to which it has succeeded and examines the broader implications of Bosnia's experience for other state-building efforts of its kind.     

Democratization,State-building and War: The Cases of Serbia and Croatia

The author explores the connection that exists between democratization, state-building and war in the cases of Serbia and Croatia in the 1990s. It is necessary to examine closely how these processes influence one another because state-building and democratization are not necessarily contradictory and even war might not be an obstacle for democracy. However, in Serbia and Croatia state-building and war influenced democratization negatively, but in different ways. In Serbia, the nationalist mobilization for a state-building programme prevented democratization, while in Croatia democratization was a precondition for state-building, which then impeded democratic consolidation. Further important differences are the lower level of institutionalization, incomplete state-building, and polarized party system in Serbia and a higher level of institutionalization, completed state-building, and moderate party pluralism in Croatia. The war also influenced Croatia directly, while Serbia was only indirectly affected by the wars in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina before the NATO intervention in 1999.     

Weak states and uneven pluralism: lessons from Mali and Kyrgyzstan

We argue that certain important democratic practices and elements of pluralism are lasting features of political systems in many poor countries. Because of state weakness, such arrangements work to the benefit of both elites and citizens. The broader citizenry and civil society enjoy significant political freedoms and greater access to foreign aid. Elites tolerate these limited civil liberties and regular elections because they produce few costly consequences due to state incapacity. We evaluate this theory of ‘uneven pluralism’ in poor countries using evidence from a paired comparison of Mali and Kyrgyzstan. These two countries have experienced significant political turbulence, but on balance have shown a persistent and robust commitment to a free press, transparent elections, and respect for freedom of association. Our theory suggests that uneven pluralism is likely to continue in countries like Mali and Kyrgyzstan, even as significant limits on judicial independence, persistent corruption, and lack of government transparency make democratic consolidation unlikely.     

Boxing and Politics in Slovakia: 'Meciarism' Roots,Theory, Practice

This article argues that 'Meciarism' represented an inevitable phase on Slovakia's way towards democracy and a market economy - it was the 'Slovak must'. 'Meciarism' as a distinct phase of development was determined by the fact that state-building and democratic transition took place at the same time and were fostered by peculiar traditional features of Slovak political culture. The first substantive section of the article introduces the theory and practice of 'Meciarism'. The attempt to clarify core features and their ideological roots is illustrated by a selection of examples that depict the reality of 'Meciarist rule' and the coalition government's political style. The second section investigates the political environment on the civic level, which was favourable to the emergence of 'Meciarism', and argues that 'civic incompetence' was the main reason for Prime Minister Meciar's political success. Finally, the third section explores the historic origins of 'Meciarism'. It shows how distinctive historical conditions and constellations shaped Slovak society's political culture to such an extent that 'Meciarism' was an inevitable feature of the first years of national independence.     

Decision Making in Autocratic Regimes: A Poliheuristic Perspective

This paper applies the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making to non-democratic states. Poliheuristic theory asserts that state leaders assign primary importance to their political survival; however, the meaning of "the political" varies dramatically from country to country. Furthermore, the types of actors who hold leaders politically accountable also vary between countries. Consequently, leaders often pursue vastly different means of ensuring their political survival. The author uses the common distinction between single-party, military, and personalist autocracies to show that apparently arbitrary differences in autocratic leaders' political concerns actually vary in systematic and potentially predictable ways. Because this argument is generalized to non-democratic states as a whole, it has important implications for the ways in which democratic states craft their policies toward autocracies.     

民主治理与民主巩固——东南亚国家的政治发展困境

东南亚国家独立初期"民主试验"的失败及现阶段民主制度的"危机"和民主制度本身并没有本质的、必然的联系,民主制的发展困境是由于与民主制度相适应的民主治理方式未能有效建立,治理方式不能与民主体制相适应造成的。从"统治"到"治理"不仅是一种范式的变迁,也是国家治理方式的转换。未来东南亚国家的民主巩固进程将是一个艰巨的"双重民主化"进程即实现政治体制和管理方式的双重转型。     

Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy

This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections for civil liberties, experience a change in political leadership, or suffer an economic downturn. At the same time, the analysis does not support the claim that transitions in neighbouring countries directly improve prospects for a transition to democracy, or that economic decline and presidential systems heighten the risk of democratic breakdown. Perhaps most intriguing, our model of transitions to democracy also identifies a new twist on old stories linking economic development to democratization. For countries under authoritarian rule that have attempted democracy before, the research here indicates that development does improve prospects for another attempt, as modernization theory suggests. For countries with no democratic experience, however, affluence conveys no direct democratizing benefit and appears, if anything, to help sustain authoritarian rule.