Fertility,development, and family planning, 1970–1980: An analysis of cases weighted by population

A series of related studies (Freedman and Berelson, 1976; Mauldin and Berelson, 1978; and Tsui and Bogue, 1978) have presented empirical findings based on multiple regression analysis which indicated that family planning program effort (FP), as measured by an index developed by Lapham and Mauldin (1972), was the single most important predictor of (or influence on) fertility reduction in less-developed countries (LDCs). The basic results have been confirmed repeatedly. A more extensive data set was used to extend the analysis to a comparison of results of corss-sectional models circa 1970 and 1980. The study builds upon the results of past studies yet differs from them in several ways. All the variables in the present study were measured at 2 points in time: circa 1970 and circa 1980, allowing a comparison between cross-sectional models for 1970 and 1980. Among the cases included in this multivariate analysis was China, a country usually excluded for lack of data. The analysis was extend to 85 countries. Cases were weighted by population, having the effect of increasing the impact of larger countries such as India and China on the outcome of the analysis. Total fertility rate (TFR) was used as an indicator of fertility. For 1970, family planning program effort had the strongest direct influence on fertility (a result consistent with previous studies). Life expectancy at birth was the other direct influence. The direct influence of life expectancy at birth was less than that of family planning, but the total influence was greater. After life expectancy and family planning, school enrollment and relative educational status of women had the strongest indirect and total influences. The other variables all had a positive influence on fertility. When the total variance attributable was considered, directly and indirectly to each of the independent variables, urbanization, carlorie supply, and per capita gross national product all accounted for less than 5% of the variance in fertility, all of it indirect. Life expectancy, family planning, and school enrollment each explained (directly plus indirectly) more than 10% of the variance in fertility. The pattern differed somewhat for 1980. Calorie supply, per capita gross national product, and relative educational status of women had no influence, direct or indirect on fertility. Also for 1980, life expectancy had a stronger direct influence on fertility than family planning. Overall, life expectancy at birth, family planning program effort, and total school enrollment emerged as the principal influences on fertility.     

Fertility,family planning,and development: Indirect influences

This paper focuses on the indirect influences on changing fertility and on the direct and indirect influences on family planning effort. Complete data on the variables under consideration were gathered from a variety of sources for 65 developing countries. The results here should be generalized only to high fertility, high mortality, low education, and low per capita gross national product nations. 1) Some social variables, like education, are more important than others for explaining fertility and family planning effort. The treatment of social setting as a single variable obscures the importance of lower level education (literacy, primary, and secondary school enrollment) for fertility and family planning. 2) Ignoring the indirect influences on fertility may lead us to understimate the importance of some variables on fertility, and perhaps to overestimate the importance of others. When both direct and indirect effects (the latter through family planning effort) are examined, the impact of education increases to nearly equal that of family planning effort in 3 of the 4 models developed here. 3) Program effort can be explained at least as well with a single variable (literacy or female school enrollment) as with the composite variable "social setting." 4) In addition to its importance in explaining fertility, education may also be important in explaining mortality. 5) It appears that the absolute and relative status of women may be an important variable which has not yet been adequately measured. Overall, the results of this study lend additional support to the position that, in addition to family planning effort, education may play a more crucial role than is obvious in fertility reduction in developing countries.     

Do Relative Income and Income Inequality Affect Consumption? Evidence from the Villages of Rural China

This article examines how a household's consumption rate is affected by its relative income and income inequality within a community. Based on the theory of social status seeking in consumption, we test hypotheses related to these factors using a unique panel data set of rural households in China observed within a few hundred villages between 2003 and 2006. We find that the household's consumption rate is negatively related to the relative income position after controlling for the absolute income, and positively related to the income inequality of the village. We confirm these with different measurements of relative position.     

Is Corruption Really Bad for Inequality? Evidence from Latin America

This article presents new evidence on the relationship between corruption and income inequality. Using a panel data methodology, we find that lower corruption is associated with higher income inequality in Latin America. This result is in contrast to other empirical studies but it makes sense in Latin America for a number of reasons. The finding of an inverse relationship between inequality and corruption suggests that institutional reform policies by themselves may be misguided.     

Educational human capital and levels of income: Evidence from states in India, 1965 – 92

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run (steady-state) relationship between levels of educational human capital and levels of income for the 15 major states of India between 1965 and 1992. The relationship is estimated using the Pooled Mean Groups (PMG) technique; which produces common long-run coefficients but allows heterogeneity of the short-run adjustment parameters. The results suggest that levels of educational human capital, proxied by high school enrollment rates, have a robust positive impact on steady-state levels of income. This is true for male and female education, and the regressions also suggest that states which have larger gender-gaps in education have lower steady-state incomes. The estimated relationship is robust to the inclusion of alternative measures, added controls, and variation in the degree of state coverage.     

Poverty and Survival

A recent literature highlights the uncertainty concerning whether economic growth has any causal protective effect on health and survival. But equal rates of growth often deliver unequal rates of poverty reduction and absolute deprivation is more clearly relevant. Using state-level panel data for India, we contribute the first estimates of the impact of changes in poverty on infant survival. We identify a significant within-state relationship which persists conditional upon state income, indicating the size of survival gains from redistribution in favour of households below the poverty line. The poverty elasticity declines over time after 1981. It is invariant to controlling for income inequality but diminished upon controlling for education, fertility and state health expenditure, and eliminated once we introduce controls for omitted trends.     

Inequality and Economic Growth: The Empirical Relationship Reconsidered in the Light of Comparable Data

Almost all the recent empirical work on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth has used inequality data that are not consistently measured. This article argues that this is inappropriate and shows that the significant negative correlation often found between income inequality and growth across countries may not be robust when income inequality is measured in a consistent manner. However, evidence is found of a significant negative correlation between consistently measured inequality of expenditure data and economic growth for a sample of developing countries.     

Income inequality and level of corruption in post-communist European countries between 1995 and 2014

This paper analyses the relationships between income inequality and corruption in Europe and looks specifically at post-communist European countries. The scientific community agrees that there is important relationship between income inequality and corruption and many authors believe that low income inequality is connected to low corruption. According to empirical papers, this is true not only on the European scale, but also on a global scale. In this paper, I test this claim by conducting a multilevel analysis on 39 European countries in the period of 1995–2014. This model ascertains that there are immense differences between post-communist countries and the rest of European countries. The effects of income inequality on the level of corruption are discussed.     

Level of living and fertility among a rural population of the Philippines

This study examines the issue of whether the relationship of fertility to measures of economic resources is different at lower income levels than at higher levels. Testing was done in a rural Philippine setting in 1978-79. 3 measures of economic resources were utilized -- income, quality of housing, and provision of schooling for children. The data were drawn from a survey of rural families residing in 5 muncipalities of Iloilo province, on Panay Island in the central Philippines. In the study design, villages (or barangays) were selected from the 5 municipalities to obtain equal numbers of 3 agricultural types -- upland, rainfed lowland, and irrigated lowland farms. Interviews were conducted during a 4-month period in late 1978 and early 1979. Completed interviews of 1077 married women were obtained from 1066 households in 46 villages. These women were under age 50. The number of children ever born was used as the measure of fertility. To derive household income for the families in the survey both farm production and nonfarm income were converted into Philippine pesos. For a measure of housing quality, an index was formed based on 7 household items which could be considered amenities for the family and on the reported construction materials for 5 parts of the dwelling. This sample of households in the rural villages of Iloilo Province exhibited evidence of a threshold in the relationship between housing quality and fertility and between per capita income and fertility. For those families with per capita income less than 200 pesos per year, there was a strong positive relationship between 2 of the economic resource measures and fertility. This threshold for families of very low income showed support for the presence of limiting factors other than contraception. When the contracepting women of low income were removed from the analysis, the slope below the threshold became steeper. The poor nutrition and poor health that are associated with very low income can result in lower fecundity, thus biologically or nonvolitionally limiting fertility from what it could be with conditions of good health and nutrition. Among the families with higher per capita income, there was a negative relationship between per capita income and fertility. Housing quality yielded the strongest evidence of the threshold effect. Education of the children was not related to fertility in this model. Study findings indicate that for about 1/3 of this rural population initial increases in their economic level or living standard could result in increasing fertility up to a threshold level.     

Sociological explanations of economic growth

Even if questions of how resources aredistributed within and between societies are our main concern, we must continue to grapple with the issue of the causes of economic growth because economic growth and level of development continue to be among the most important causes of inequality, poverty, unemployment, and the quality of life. This paper’s dependent variable is the economic growth rate of 55 less developed countries (LDCs) during two time periods—1970–78 and 1965–84. The causal model consists of control variables—level of development and domestic investment in 1965—and a variety of independent variables drawn from major sociological theories of economic growth published during the last three decades. Multiple regression analysis shows that, net of the effects of the two control variables, the variables that have the strongest effect on economic growth rates are: (1) direct foreign investment, which has a negative effect; (2) the proportion of the population in military service; and (3) the primary school enrollment ratio, both of which have positive effects of economic, growth. On the other hand, variables drawn from some theories receive no empirical suport. The mass media of communications, ethno-linguistic heterogeneity, democracy and human rights, income inequality, and state-centric theory’s key variable—state strength—all fail to show any significant impact on economic growth rates when the control variables and the significant independent variables are held constant. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Economic growth,income inequality and poverty in china under economic reforms

China's gross domestic product (GDP) more than quadrupled between 1978 and 1996 under economic reforms. Per capita disposable incomes more than tripled in the cities and almost quadrupled in the rural areas. However, rapid economic growth brought about large income inequality which slowed down poverty reduction. In 1995, there were still 70–170 million people living in poverty. This article aims to assess the relationship between economic growth, income inequality and poverty using both secondary and household survey data. The main findings are (1) urban/rural divide and spatial inequality are two major factors accounting for overall income inequality; (2) non‐wage and non‐farm incomes are more unequally distributed than wage and farm incomes; and (3) the incidence of poverty is very sensitive to the changes in per capita income and inequality.     

Rising Inequality in Mexico: Household Characteristics and Regional Effects

We use an empirical framework to identify the contributions of microeconomic factors to the sharp rise in household (per capita) income inequality in Mexico between 1984 and 1994. Results indicate that changes in returns to household characteristics, in particular changes in returns to education, are responsible for about half of the increase in the Gini coefficient. The deteriorating conditions in rural areas relative to the urban areas and of the southern region relative to other regions account for another fourth of the increase in the Gini.     

Globalisation and Unequalisation: What Can Be Learned from Value Chain Analysis?

Although many have gained from the process of globalisation, there remains a stubbornly large number of people living in absolute poverty and a rise in inequality within and between countries. The issue is thus not whether to participate in the global economy but how to do so in a manner which provides for sustainable and equitable income growth. This study shows how value chain analysis can be used to chart the growing disjuncture between global economic activity and global income distribution and to provide causal explanations for this outcome. In so doing, value chain analysis provides valuable insights into policy formulation and implementation.     

Wealth Inequality,Educational Environment and School Enrolment: Evidence from Mexico

Using data from the extended section of the 2010 Mexican census (2.9 million households), we study how school enrolment is associated with wealth inequality and with the educational environment the child is exposed to at the household and municipal levels. We provide robust evidence of wealth inequality as a negative predictor of school enrolment for children in primary, secondary and high school age ranges while a positive role is played by the educational environment. Through the introduction of interaction terms, we account for how economic and educational variables are intertwined at both the household and the municipal level, and we are able to illustrate the considerable heterogeneity in the role of adult education for households at different standards of living.     

Inequality,Economic Development,and Democratization

Although multiple theories suggest that economic development and inequality somehow affect democratization, these claims have received only limited empirical support. I contend that much of the confusion stems from the implicit assumption held by the literature that development and inequality affect democratization independently of one another. In this paper, I argue that the effect of income distribution on democratization is in fact contingent on the income level: in middle-income countries inequality fosters democratization; in rich countries, however, it harms democratization. Using a data set covering almost all autocracies between 1960 and 2007, I find evidence consistent with my hypothesis.     

Inequality,earnings and participation among the poor in rural India

Emphasising that there is a relative dimension to deprivation, an attempt is made here to decompose income inequality among the rural poor into inequality in earnings per worker, in participation rate and covariance of earnings per worker and participation rate. From this decomposition, the effects of (small) changes in inequality in earnings per worker and in participation rate on income inequality are evaluated. The analysis is based on a cross‐section of rural households in 1970–71. The samples of poor cultivating households and poor casual agricultural labour households are analysed separately for each of two regions, based on a classification of villages in terms of technological advancement.     

The determinants of teenage schooling in Jamaica: Rich vs. poor,females vs. males

The belief that schooling is an important way to reduce poverty and increase social mobility has lead to large government‐sponsored investment in education in developing countries. Jamaica has an impressive literacy and primary enrolment rate, yet the ability of its secondary school system to enhance social mobility and reduce inequality is limited. Regression results from a nationally representative household survey show that family background variables (parental education and income) are important determinants of secondary school enrolment, and income is the single most important determinant of enrolment in an ‘elite’ high school, with the impact being twice as large for females. Part of the income effect is shown to represent unobserved community heterogeneity. One conclusion is that the recent ‘cost‐sharing’ education policy of the Jamaican government, if applied selectively to the elite academic high schools, will fall disproportionately upon rich households.     

What Has Driven the Great Fertility Decline in Developing Countries since 1960?

Several developing countries are currently experiencing a significant fertility decline, however, academic economists have paid little attention to this transition. This paper seeks to explain the fertility transition by infant mortality, urbanisation, income, culture and educational attainment of females and males using annual data for 92 developing countries over the period 1960–2014. External instruments are used to deal with endogeneity. The results suggest that increasing per capita income, improved female education and increasing secularisation have been important determinants for declining fertility in the developing world.     

Exploring income inequality in rural,coastal Viet Nam

Income inequality has been rising in parallel with the economic liberalisation process in the former centrally planned economies. The opportunities for non‐agricultural income associated with the market liberalisation process in former centrally planned economies would seem to be important in determining inequality within the rural sector. This article reviews the trends in inequality in Viet Nam examining differential trends and hypothesised causes. Inequality is important because of its relationship to other factors in the evolution of the agricultural economy such as the incidence of poverty and the sustainability of emerging income sources. This article analyses income inequality based on data collected by the author in two Districts in coastal northern Viet Nam. The results demonstrate that non‐agricultural income sources, specifically aquaculture and wage and remittance, contribute more to present inequality than any other income source. Simulation shows that the emergence of aquaculture since the late 1980s has been driving the inequality increase in that period. Hence the analysis provides evidence that non‐agricultural income increases inequality even without asset concentration. This concentration of income is important in the north Viet Nam context since it is concurrent with present‐day land allocation and will affect the structure of future income growth.