遵约与国际制度的有效性:情投意合还是一厢情愿

20世纪90年代,国际关系学与国际法学开始走上了相互借鉴、学习的道路。国际关系学者和法学研究者在遵约研究方面具有共同的议程,遵约研究已经成为国际关系理论的重要方面。遵约被国际关系学界用来衡量制度的因果影响,具有一定的客观性。但是,遵约与国际制度有效性之间并不具有必然的联系,遵约是对制度因果关系的误读。此外,认识论、方法论上及分析层次、内生性问题上也对遵约研究提出了挑战。遵约研究对制度有效性的启示在于:应该慎重选择衡量结果的指标,从而准确评估制度对国家政策和行为的因果影响。     

关于国际合作的理论:概述与思考

本文阐述了新现实主义、新自由主义等主要国际关系理论对于国际合作命题的观点 ,并提出了一些较为深入的问题。本文以为 ,新现实主义在国际合作方面的论述较为粗糙 ,有必要从结构与合作的关系进行进一步的研究 ;而国际制度理论中 ,国际制度本身的研究也有待充实。     

编者的话

国家为何遵守或者违反条约?国际制度是否有效?这是两个既有区别又有联系的问题。王明国的论文对"遵约与制度有效性"的既有研究路径,以及二者之间的关系进行了探讨,认为在遵约与国际制度有效性问题上,国际法学者希望通过遵约来考察制度有效性,国际关系研究者则倾向于考察国家     

制度实践与中国的东亚区域治理

近年来,国际关系研究出现了实践转向并对国际制度理论产生了重要影响。国际实践蕴含着国际制度与国际规则,集体共识是国际制度与国际实践的共同要求。国际实践还拓展了制度理论所忽视的一个重要领域,即独立于国际制度与国家行为的国际实践空间与进程。当前,国际实践在制度研究中仍处于相对边缘的位置。为此,文章把实践理念纳入国际制度的研究范畴,提出了"制度实践"的新实践类型。制度实践突破了制度客观论的束缚,增强了制度理论的解释能力,深化了范式间的多元对话,推动了全球治理的深刻转型。文章还对制度实践与参与实践进行了比较分析。当前,中国的东亚区域治理实践进程已经超越了单纯的参与实践,正以制度组织作为依托平台,以转移型制度实践作为调整方向,通过制度重建和新建制度,开展积极主动和全方位的制度实践。在中国参与东亚区域治理制度的进程中,制度实践为落实共商共建共享、构建中国特色的全球治理理论提供了重要的知识来源。     

国际制度理论流派及其争论

国际制度理论 (ｉｎｔｅｒａｔｉｏｎａｌｒｅｇｉｍｅｔｈｅｏｒｙ)是近2 0多年来出现的影响最大 ,发展最迅速的西方国际关系理论之一 ,主要研究国际合作及国际制度。先后出现新现实主义、新自由主义和建构主义等三大流派 ,它们之间的相互争论促进了彼此的成长 ,同时也出现了理论上及方法论的融合。本文拟对国际制度理论三大流派的主张以及它们之间的争论进行简要的分析研究。一、什么是国际制度国际关系中的国际制度一词可追溯到 6 0年代起风靡经济学领域的制度主义 ,后者包含交易成本、产权分析及合同理论。其最核心的观点认为交易有成本…     

单边与多边之间:特朗普政府退约的国际制度逻辑

特朗普政府的退约行为引发了国际社会对于国际制度体系运转的广泛关注。退约本质上是为了协调国际制度的刚性承诺与国家的灵活性需求之间的紧张关系。长期以来,国际制度理论对退约的研究相对忽视和不足,尽管“制度困境论”“制度互动论”“制度收缩论”和“制度现实主义论”等学说提供了部分解释,但仍需要明确退约在现有国际制度研究谱系中的位置。究其原因,制度主义在研究设计中用“背叛”研究把退约排除在研究议程之外,而制度扩散长期掩盖了制度退出的影响。本质上,制度主义聚焦制度的形成和维持,是一种关注稳定大于变动的理论。为此,文章从制度要素出发,提出退约具有国际制度自身的逻辑和特征,即从制度成员身份、条约义务偏好和后果不确定性程度这三个方面对退约进行动态把握。特朗普政府的退约行为是历史延续性和当前的特殊性相结合的产物,不会给当前的国际制度体系和国际合作进程产生决定性影响。对于美国退约后的国际制度行为,中国应高度重视,从政治、法律和经济等多维度加以全面审视,而非简单地从道德层面进行谴责。同时,中国在必要时需要重新审视退约作为外交战略的可选工具,以切实维护自身的国家利益。     

国际制度复杂性与东亚一体化进程

国际制度复杂性是国际制度理论的前沿问题,其重点在于分析制度复杂性对国际合作的影响。近年来,东亚地区各种国际制度竞相发展,尤其是中国周边的地区性国际组织的数量增长迅速。东亚地区性国际制度的扩散、传播、嵌套和重叠,导致了问题领域、管辖权以及成员身份等的"交叠"问题越来越明显。中国正卷入不断嵌套、重叠的多边地区制度之中,制度复杂性也日益成为中国制定政策时必须考虑的结构因素。但是,制度复杂性并不一定是东亚一体化进程的阻碍因素。对东亚地区制度平行、制度嵌套与制度重叠这三种不同类型制度复杂性的案例分析显示,通过加强国际制度建设、推动核心成员国利益趋同、提升"体制选择"或"体制转移"过程中的成本等方式,国际制度复杂性为东亚合作注入了新的活力,提供了一种新的可行选择。这一观点也是对近年来讨论颇多的东亚地区"制度过剩"提法的商榷。在东亚一体化过程中,"制度过剩"的提法并不能准确把握制度复杂性的内涵。为此,一方面,为了推动东亚合作,需要研究中国既有的关于国际组织外交政策的延续与调整问题;另一方面,对美国等西方国家利用制度增加、扩散的机遇,追求自身利益的做法,及其对地区格局以及中国和平发展所产生的消极影响,需要给予应有的关注。     

中国国际话语权内生变量分析——基于"一带一路"倡议的个案研究

以国际话语权内生变量为视角研究中国话语权来源的路径不但具有理论价值,而且具有现实意义."一带一路"倡议中国话语权内生变量的分析逻辑是:"一带一路"倡议中国话语权来源于"一带一路"国际机制的合法性,而"一带一路"国际机制在实践中体现出来的独特有效性是"一带一路"国际机制合法性的重要组成部分,"一带一路"主要倡议国——中国以立足新时代的全球治理理念,推动"一带一路"国际机制快速建立.理论分析认为,国际机制的效率性是其合法性和话语权获得的核心内生变量,中国话语权可以从"目标获得""解决问题"和"集体最优"等三个方面来评价.虽然世界上绝大部分爱好和平、急需发展的国家对"一带一路"倡议和由此带来的发展机遇表现出积极立场,但"一带一路"在从倡议转化为实践框架的过程中,仍然在理念传播、功能强化和制度供给方面面临一定挑战,中国的话语权也因此存在进一步提升的空间.在现有的国际机制中,"一带一路"倡议是立足新时代的合作理念和具有创新性的合作范式,也是中国最易取得话语权的合作范式.     

当代西方学术界对欧盟国际气候谈判立场的研究综述

鉴于欧盟在国际气候谈判及全球气候治理中的重要影响和"领导"作用,对欧盟气候变化政策及其国际气候谈判立场的研究受到西方学术界的广泛关注。本文主要从两个方面对当代西方学术界关于欧盟国际气候谈判立场及相关研究进行综合概括和评述:首先,从总体上介绍当代西方学术界对影响一个国家(或国家集团)国际气候谈判立场的理论研究;其次,关于欧盟与成员国及其他欧洲国家国际气候谈判立场的研究。通过上述分析,本文总结了六类分析欧盟国际气候谈判立场的理论视角:一是环境外交政策分析法;二是经济利益决定论;三是国内政治分析法;四是双层博弈分析法;五是制度主义分析法;六是观念建构视角。     

“英国学派”视野下的国际法

从本源来看,国际关系与国际法之间联系紧密,在学科发展史上国际关系理论与国际法学的研究相辅相成。这种紧密关系维系将近三百年,直至冷战时期现实主义主导美国国际关系学领域时才戛然而止。当时,美国国际关系学界甚至掀起一场试图疏远法学、历史学、哲学等传统研究方法的“行为主义革命”。不过,美国之外的捍卫传统研究方法的“英国学派”却仍然维系着国际关系理论与国际法学的紧密联系。英国学派的学者不仅在相关国际关系命题方面给予了国际法发展的更大空间,而且他们对国际法所做的直接研究,促进了国际法学的进步。     

Judicial Performance and the Rule of Law in the Mexican States

What determines how judicial institutions perform? Prominent theoretical approaches, such as international political economy, institutional rational choice, social capital, and structural theories, suggest that international economic actors, political competition, political participation, and poverty may all be important forces driving institutional behavior. This study analyzes these various theoretical approaches and uses qualitative and statistical analysis to compare judicial performance in the Mexican states. It provides evidence to support the institutional rational choice hypothesis that political competition generates judicial independence. Poverty, political participation, and an export‐oriented economy seem to influence judicial access and effectiveness.     

A Natural Experiment in Political Decentralization: Local Institutions and Citizens' Political Engagement in Uruguay

The potential democratizing effect of political decentralization reforms has been a matter of substantial theoretical and empirical debate. This article analyzes the effect of local democratic institution building on the political attitudes and behavior of citizens living in small towns in Uruguay. More specifically, using a natural experiment design, this research seeks to establish the causal impact of recently established elections of local authorities on individuals' political engagement. It develops a comparative case study analyzing the consequences of this institutional innovation in two towns. It shows that individuals from the town where citizens have the opportunity to elect their local authorities have more positive attitudes toward politics than those from the town without such elections.     

Candidate Recruitment and Selection in Latin America: A Framework for Analysis

This article provides a theoretical framework for analyzing the recruitment and selection of legislative candidates in Latin America. It argues that political recruitment and candidate selection are undertheorized for Latin America yet have determinative impacts on political systems, often overriding the influence of more commonly studied institutional variables. The article elucidates a typology of legislative candidates based on the legal and party variables that lead to the emergence of particular selection methods, as well as the patterns of loyalty generated by those methods. It analyzes the recruitment and selection processes as independent and dependent variables, underscoring the significant effect these procedures have on the incentive structure and subsequent behavior of legislators. Those factors, in turn, have important consequences for democratic governability and the performance of presidentialism.     

As Clear as MUD: Characteristics,Objectives, and Strategies of the Opposition in Bolivarian Venezuela

Since President Hugo Chávez was first elected in 1998, the Venezuelan opposition seems to have alternated between institutional and extra‐institutional power strategies at different junctures. To help explain this pattern, this article constructs a novel theoretical framework from critical readings of both general theory and accounts of the Venezuelan opposition. It proposes that the strategies should be viewed as dialectical rather than discrete. On this basis, it finds that while the Venezuelan opposition has undergone important changes toward institutionalization in its composition, discursive emphasis, and strategic direction, close readings of opposition texts, interviews with opposition actors, and observations of street demonstrations all reveal continuity with previous rupturist and extra‐institutional tendencies. Both strategies therefore must be considered to achieve a fuller, more comprehensive vision of the Venezuelan opposition; this conclusion has important theoretical implications for the study of opposition in the wider region.     

制度选择框架下日本风险投资组织行为新解——读平力群的新作《日本风险投资研究》

"日本型风险投资"滋生于日本多元化官僚经济体制的独特土壤,有别于美国独立型风险投资机构。平力群的《日本风险投资研究》新作是制度选择框架下探究日本风险投资组织行为的最新解,该书构建的"制度选择——组织行为——创新绩效"分析框架凸显了理论创新,建立美国风险投资典型化制度安排参照系体现了研究视角创新,提出了3个创新性观点:一是日本风险投资是其无法完成破坏性创新的症结;二是认识到制度多元化的重要意义;三是日本风险投资模式正处于新旧交易模式并存阶段。对于日本风险投资研究还应着眼于新会计制度改革新背景、客观评价VC宪章、实证检验绩效、开展案例研究等。     

The Politics of Building Municipal Institutional Effectiveness in Chile

Institutional effectiveness varies widely across Chile's 346 municipalities. Whereas some local governments seem to work with impeccable precision, others struggle to deliver basic services and welfare benefits to the population. This article seeks to explain why such variation exists; it combines quantitative and qualitative evidence to show how mayors can play a crucial role in building institutional effectiveness. The study focuses on the administration of Chile's municipal job placement offices. It finds that municipalities where mayors have held office for three or more consecutive terms exhibit stronger institutional capacity than those localities where electoral turnover is the norm. The analysis, therefore, underscores an interesting finding: electoral competition has the potential both to improve and to undermine administrative capacity.     

Sequenzorientierte Policy-Analyse

Due to the structural characteristics of the German system of government, political scientists often assume that policy-making will be affected by gridlock. Assuming exogenous preferences and stable institutional settings, they tend analytically toward interaction studies based on rational choice. As such studies analyze political decisions isolated from changes in social problems, preferences and institutional settings, their explanatory power focuses on incremental policy change. I suggest viewing political decision-making as a dynamic process. To do this, I examine the innovative pension reform initiated by the former Federal Minister of Labor, Walter Riester, looking at the feedback effects of policies on political action. On the theoretical level, this use of temporality is based on the assumption that policies need to have social integrative effects. My main hypothesis is that sequenceoriented analysis in policy studies would enable us to identify endogenous causes of innovative policy change.     

The institutionalization of relative advantage: formal institutions,subconstitutional presidential powers,and the rise of authoritarian politics in Russia, 1994–2012

What role do formal institutions play in the consolidation of authoritarian regimes such as the Russian Federation? Oftentimes, it is assumed that autocrats, usually potent presidents, wield informal powers and control far-flung patron–client networks that undermine formal institutions and bolster their rule. After the institutional turn in authoritarianism studies, elections, parties, legislatures, or courts have taken center stage, yet presidencies and public law are still on the margins of this research paradigm. This paper proposes a method for measuring subconstitutional presidential power and its change by federal law, decrees, and Constitutional Court rulings as well as a theoretical framework for explaining when and under which conditions subconstitutional presidential power expands. It is argued that as a result of a gradual, small-scale, and slow-moving process of layering, presidential powers have been accumulated over time. This furthers the institutionalization of presidential advantage toward other federal and regional institutions, which in turn contributes to the consolidation of authoritarianism.     

Institutional Change in Swiss Cantons: A Contribution to Describing and Explaining Institutional Reforms

Most accounts of Swiss federal institutions are unable to explain institutional change. In this contribution the authors trace change in Cantonal reforms and then use multivariate explanation models to account for institutional reforms such as New Public Management reforms. The multivariate analyses used rely on an “event count model” to explain the frequency of institutional reforms and a “binary response model” to explain why Cantons adopt New Public Management reforms. This research demonstrates that policy research as well as innovation and diffusion theories can contribute to explaining institutional reform.     

Effects of Institutional Reforms on Women's Representation in Colombia, 1960–2014

Starting in the 1990s, reforms aimed at addressing the underrepresentation of women have been implemented in Colombia. However, research on the consequences of these reforms has been inconclusive. This article analyzes the influence of institutional variables on the proportion of nominated and elected women in Colombia between 1962 and 2014, at both the national and local levels of government, in three different institutional environments. Results confirm the influence of institutional change, indicating that decentralizing reforms and the introduction of the gender quota have had a positive impact on the proportion of women's candidacies and elections, but that the adoption of the open list negatively affected the percentage of elected women.