当前欧洲右翼民粹主义复兴运动的新趋向

近年来,全球金融危机导致经济和社会动荡之际,欧洲右翼民粹主义力量出现了新的政治复兴之势。在政治主张和策略方面,它们利用伊斯兰恐惧症,以穆斯林移民作为主要攻击目标;提出对欧洲一体化的怀疑,主张重新民族国家化,同时寻求建立右翼民粹主义势力的欧洲联盟。欧洲右翼民粹主义政党的新变化从多重意义上影响了欧洲民主政治,使文化价值认同成为政治分野的一个重要维度。     

冷战结束后中东欧政体转轨及其得失

自东欧剧变以来,政治民主化成为中东欧国家转轨的一个重要方面,而推动建立民主政体,则是政治民主化的核心内容。中东欧国家在巨变后普遍建立了总理总统制和议会制政体。总体来看,这两种政体对推动中东欧民主转轨发挥了积极作用。但在总体表现不错的情况下,这两种政体在中东欧都出现了一些问题,例如内阁不稳定,总统、总理行政权的冲突,议会政党过多,单党垄断议会、内阁和总统职位等现象。     

中东欧民粹主义执政党的激进化——基于匈牙利青民盟的案例分析

提起民粹主义政党,学界的印象一般都倾向于认为民粹主义政党的政治地位几乎始终处于"局外人"的境地。但不可否认的是,近年来,民粹主义政党和领导人在世界政治舞台上的地位越发地突出和引人注目。另外,自20世纪90年代西方新民粹主义兴起以来,学界普遍认为,民粹主义势力的勃兴主要是一个周期性的现象,以建制派挑战者身份踏入政治舞台的民粹主义政党,往往无法长久保持自身的影响力和政治地位。尤其是成为执政党联盟一员的民粹主义政党,其主要前景无非就是:坚持自身的挑战者立场,进而损失选票和实际支持率,最终黯然出局;或者是被主流政党的立场同化,使自身的实际立场和政策主张逐步趋近于建制派势力,软化自身的民粹主义立场。然而,通过对自2010年起在匈牙利持续执政至今的青民盟(FIDESZ)的分析,可以发现,类似青民盟这样的激进右翼民粹主义政党,不仅没有放弃自身的激进立场,反而提升了在大选中的支持率。将"人民与他者"的二分对立进行外化,是民粹主义政党保持自身立场和执政地位的有效战略。     

“欧洲化”进程与中东欧国家的政党政治变迁

随着欧盟因素的介入,中东欧各国在政治经济和社会生活方面发生了许多重要变化,即出现了学界所称的欧洲化现象,中东欧国家政党也不可避免地受到了欧洲化进程的影响。作为一种超越国家层面的政治社会化过程,欧洲化促使中东欧国家的政党做出调整和改变,以适应新的定位和功能。同时,在欧洲化深入的过程中,中东欧国家的政党政治也面临着巨大的困难和挑战。     

乌克兰民粹主义的特征及影响(2000-2019年)

乌克兰自独立以来,政治民粹主义伴随其政治经济转型进程不断蔓延加剧。进入21世纪,虽然民粹主义政党和运动出现仅十几年,但乌克兰已然成为后苏联空间中遭遇民粹主义浪潮席卷的突出案例。在经历了2014年的政治危机和持续的顿巴斯冲突后,乌克兰政治逐步进入了民粹主义全面盛行的新阶段。乌克兰民粹主义相较整个欧洲区域具有一些显著的特征,主要表现在:反精英和反建制的极端化,强烈的反民主属性和家长制政府偏好,分裂矛盾的意识形态,过度渲染和营造社会危机,以及盲目的区域一体化期待。究其成因,可归结于该国历史上对统治精英"外来化"的认知,独立后缺乏新的民族国家认知与主流意识形态,"团结主义"的政治文化传统,以及整个社会对阶层分化和等级制度的共识。这种特殊的民粹主义,将对乌克兰政治持续产生一系列负面影响。     

中东欧激进右翼和极右民粹主义的兴起——从社会文化遗产角度的分析

冷战结束和东欧转轨以来,中东欧政治发展的最终诉求,无论从中东欧国家申请入盟(EU)的举动,抑或是欧盟国家施加监督和管控基础之上的接纳来看,应当是自由民主制的建立和存续。但是在九十年代的"黄金岁月"之后,中东欧国家的民粹主义势力出现了明显的上升,尤其是曾经作为转型排头兵的维谢格拉德集团(匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克以及波兰),民粹主义不仅崛起而且执政,成功进行了所谓"逆民主化"操作。与此同时,激进右翼势力在中东欧的影响也日益增强。对于二者的兴起,历来有两大解释要素:经济因素和文化因素。学界对于二者的实际作用也各有分析,但是结合中东欧冷战后政治发展的实际,社会文化因素的解释力明显更为有效。本文力图分析和概括针对中东欧民粹主义和激进右翼势力兴起的西方主要研究视角,指出其贡献和不足,以及未来可能的进一步研究的方向。     

后金融危机时代中东欧欧盟国家的政党政治结构变迁

中东欧国家政党与政治结构有着特殊的不稳定性,而这个不稳定性与中东欧国家社会、经济转型高度关联。2008年金融危机和2009年欧债危机无疑加剧了人们对于这一不稳定性的担忧。通过对选举结果的实证研究并全面分析和梳理后金融危机时代中东欧国家政党政治变迁的总体结构后可以发现,中右、中左两大政治力量主导政坛的格局没有发生动摇,任何意识形态的极端势力也没有利用金融危机崛起。这就需要讨论中东欧国家转型过程中具有特色的政党政治生态环境,并对其影响政府运作进行研究,为把握中东欧国家目前的政党政治转型特征提供有分析力的解释。     

俄罗斯低效政党体系的成因及其发展趋势:一种前社会主义国家的比较研究

与同样处于转型期的中东欧国家稳定的政党体系相比,俄政党体制显然没有中东欧后共产主义国家稳定和有效。俄罗斯与中东欧国家在政体选择、政治文化、意识形态、制度和社会认同等方面的差异是造成双方政党制度绩效截然不同的主要因素。长远看,俄政党制度将趋于正规化,其作用也有望增强。     

认同政治与利益政治的双建构——波兰、匈牙利和捷克民粹主义政党的崛起

目前,学术界对于民粹主义崛起的原因分析大多基于认同政治的视角。波兰、匈牙利和捷克民粹主义政党的案例表明,认同政治和利益政治共同建构了民粹主义政党的崛起。从认同政治的角度看,民粹主义政党淡化意识形态的左右之分,不断地强化身份"认同",区别"自我"和"他者",把自己装扮成一个民族主义和文化排外主义的政党。从利益政治的角度看,民粹主义政党尽管不再以阶级动员为主要手段,甚至尽力回避"阶级""阶层"等词语,但"人民"与"精英"的区分使其成功吸引了社会转型中的受害者。选举结果表明,中下收入者是民粹主义政党的主要支持者,2008年国际金融危机加剧的无产阶级贫困化和中产阶级的无产阶级化趋势为它们提供了丰沃的社会土壤。正是通过认同政治和利益政治的双建构,波兰、匈牙利和捷克民粹主义政党强化了底层民众的民族、宗教和文化认同,把草根性的政治参与转换成自己的认同基础。     

英国退欧公投的政治影响

正英国退欧公投的过程及其结果显示了当今英国社会的分化。如何弥合因本次公投而加剧的社会分化,成为脱欧公投后英国政府及主要政党面临的主要政治问题。从欧洲层面上说,遏制民粹主义浪潮、防止英国脱欧公投的消极影响的蔓延将是欧洲面临的最大政治挑战。(一)英国围绕公投的社会分化围绕着公投,脱欧和留欧阵营间的斗争在政党之间以及政党内部不同力量之间激烈进行,到公投最后一刻几近白热化。公投前夕的民调显示留欧派略占优势,但结果     

The Foundation of the Saint-Joseph University of Beirut: The teaching of the maronites by the Second Jesuit Mission in the levant

The purpose of this article is to examine the relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia from the time of King Faisal's rise to power until President Nasser's death, via various events that shaped the Middle East. The article will also examine the main points of disagreement between the two countries, as well as the threat to the stability of the Saudi regime posed by the Egyptian President during those years. Finally, the research will examine the influence of President Nasser's death on Saudi–Egyptian relations and on the Middle East in general.     

Evolving structure of collective bargaining in Turkey (1990–2005)

ABSTRACT

Following the June 1967 Six-Day War, the Soviet Union and Britain invested significant efforts in rehabilitating their relations with the Arab countries, notably Egypt. While both supported the withdrawal of Israel from the Arab-occupied territories, the two countries differed over the nature of the settlement. Still, at the UN Security Council, the Soviet Union supported the British draft resolution for solving the Middle East conflict. Cold War interests and competition over influence in the Middle East, however, led the Soviets to launch a public campaign against British policy in the Middle East and prevented the two countries from joining efforts to bring about a breakthrough in the Arab–Israeli conflict.     

DPRK Troop Dispatches and Military Support in the Middle East: Change from Military Support to Arms Trade in the 1970s

The DPRK now trades in arms with the Middle East. However, in the October War (1973) the DPRK first began military cooperation with the Middle East by sending troops and providing unrequited military support. This switch was made to win support within the UN from these Middle Eastern countries, and so to counteract the US presence in the UN. Failing this, the DPRK withdrew from the UN in 1976. The DPRK then turned to arms trading both to build up its foreign currency reserves and to help liberate developing countries from US control.     

Oil,War and European Initiatives for Peace in the Middle East 1973–74: British Attitude and Perspective

The Arab–Israeli wars since 1948 resulted in several peace treaties between Israel and its neighbours brokered by the US, the Soviet Union and European countries in an attempt to achieve a just and lasting peace settlement in the Middle East. All efforts however proved ultimately futile, with the resumption of war several years after each peace treaty had been signed. For example, after the Six Day War of 1967, all parties agreed to accept a peace treaty based upon United Nations Resolution 242. However, six years after the tabling of the resolution, war broke out again on October 1973. Another long process of peace settlement ensued which culminated in the Camp David Accords, brokered by President Jimmy Carter. These peace accords, signed between President Anwar Sadat of Egypt and Menachem Begin of Israel on 17 September 1978, led directly to the Israel–Egypt Peace Treaty of 1979. Despite its success, the 1979 treaty yet again failed to achieve the just and lasting peace settlement that had been expected. In all these treaties, the core issues of the conflict, such as the Palestinian refugee problem and the status of East Jerusalem, failed to be resolved. This article examines the British attitude and perspective towards the peace settlement after the 1973 war, focussing on the proposal for an International Peace Guarantee and the initiative of the Euro-Arab Dialogue. Based upon declassified archival records of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office available at the National Archives in England, it unveils the attitude of the British government towards the UN Resolutions as well as its collective initiatives with the European Community to establish a just and lasting peace settlement in the Middle East.     

‘Conducting Fieldwork in the Middle East’: Report of a Workshop held at the University of Edinburgh on 12 February 2007

The workshop explored the practice of fieldwork in the Middle East. It considered the methods and techniques used by scholars, obstacles and opportunities encountered in the field, and the way that these influenced the research product. It also asked to what extent, if any, these features of conducting fieldwork were particular to the Middle East. The workshop examined these issues from a variety of disciplinary perspectives, including anthropology, political science, history and literature. It brought together selected scholars who had conducted fieldwork in a range of countries across the Middle East. The resulting discussion considered both practical issues such as negotiating access to sources, developing networks of contacts, and the effect of censorship; as well as theoretical questions such as the positionality of the researcher; the relationship between ‘the field’ and theory; and the ways in which the Middle East as a region challenged the assumptions of some academic disciplines.     

Nuclear proliferation: Is the Middle East next?

The nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan in May 1998 have had monumental ramifications for the international community, says Nabil Fahmy, Ambassador of Egypt to Japan. The tests have forced the world to realize that a static nuclear nonproliferation regime cannot survive the test of time, but must be regularly consolidated and built upon by all. In the context of the Middle East, Fahmy emphasizes the need to maintain parity in security issues, and the threat of nuclear proliferation in the region in the wake of the tests. How the international community responds to these tests will be a crucial factor in determining the sequence of events that will follow in the Middle East. If they do not provide impetus for global and regional disarmament, then the risk exists that countries in the region will be tempted, or even compelled, to explore the possibility of going nuclear.     

The British Empire in India,the Gulf pearl and the making of the Middle East

Abstract

Genealogies of the term ‘Middle East’ conventionally focus on a juncture around the 1890s, when it gained new geopolitical currency, promoted by various European and American officials with reference to a space centred around the Arabo-Persian Gulf. This article argues instead that the ‘Middle East’ label should be seen as the culmination of a longer process, led less from London than from India. Over the previous century, this consolidation of ‘British’ India as a distinct regional actor was accompanied by the conceptualisation of its borderlands, including that Gulf-centred space. This space become a theatre for economic and political monitoring strategised from India, seeking to transform what was represented as a pirate-infested margin into a pacified buffer zone. Control and exploitation of pearl fisheries, the main economic activity for Gulf populations, was central to these efforts. Imperial strategy around the Gulf pearl was a key tool in founding an informal Indian empire in the Gulf and its hinterlands, in that very space to which the name ‘Middle East’ would subsequently be given.     

Empire,State and the Bedouin of the Middle East,Past and Present: A Comparative Study of Land and Settlement Policies

The Bedouin of the Middle East have been one of the region's most marginalized groups in modern times. This study assesses the interplay between state policies and the Bedouin in the last 150 years, from a comparative standpoint. We examine the development of land laws in the Middle East as they have affected the Bedouin, from the enactment of the Ottoman land laws of 1858 up to the present. Moreover we explore whether the land laws and the fate of the Bedouin are associated with the characteristics of the regime in each country. We find that the imposition of land laws and policies directed at nomadic and sedentarizing Bedouins has depended on disparate factors such as the origins of the leadership of countries (i.e. Bedouin or non-Bedouin) and the social and economic models embraced. Regimes with origins in the tribal-Bedouin fabric of the Middle East have pursued land policies that were favorable to the Bedouin, whereas regimes drawing their strength from urban elites and with socialist outlooks encouraged very different policies. We also consider whether the case of the Bedouin in Israel is unique or reflects a larger regional context.     

试析安倍第二次内阁期间日本与中东关系

安倍第二次执政以后,高度重视与中东的关系,经常出访中东地区。频繁地访问中东,说明了日本对中东地区的高度重视、日本与中东关系的密切和深厚。安倍第二次内阁期间,日本与中东关系的主要内容包括:关注中东和平问题解决、政治与安全保障问题、能源合作、地区与全球等领域的协调与合作。日本深化与中东关系的动因有:确保能源安全、规避地缘政治风险、彰显日本大国影响力、展示文化教育等软实力、奉行平衡外交、居间调停等。鉴于日本自身与地区和国际形势等多种复杂因素,今后继续深化与中东的关系,日本还面临着不少困难与挑战。     

Cyprus and EU enlargement to the Western Balkans: a balancing act*

Abstract

Cyprus’ commitment to the European perspective of the Western Balkans is shaped by a range of factors. As well as balancing its national interests, it also aims to stand by a ‘position of principles’ on conflict issues. It equally seeks to be a reliable partner to the EU and move closer to its Western allies, while accommodating its Eastern ones. Nevertheless, over the last 10 years, Nicosia has Europeanised its policies and thinking. This has seen it reach out to Kosovo to try and build de facto relations. However, since the ‘national problem’ remains at the core of its foreign policy, relations with ‘motherland’ Greece are also key. This has in turn complicated dealings with the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Overall, Cyprus remains more firmly focused on the Middle East, making it a rather peripheral actor in the Western Balkan countries’ EU integration process.