美国对华贸易战与新冠肺炎疫情对全球化的影响

美国对华贸易战、新冠肺炎疫情对全球化造成了史无前例的冲击.虽然特朗普竞选连任失败,但特朗普政府以行政手段推动产业回流、重塑全球分工格局、阻遏中国科技企业成长的单边主义行径,对中美关系和自由国际经济秩序已然造成巨大破坏.长期来看,美国发起的"关税战""科技战"对世界供应链和价值链的破坏以及新冠肺炎疫情对全球产业链分工格局的冲击,使得国家安全压倒经济利益成为各国政府产业政策的优先选项,这些将带来系统性的连锁反应,导致全球化的碎片化、区域化和全球产业链的本土化、闭环化.     

构建和谐世界:实现国际安全的根本出路

随着冷战的结束,世界格局多极化、经济全球化、科技信息化的加快发展,国际安全形势发生了重大变化.和平、发展、合作虽已成为时代的主流,但当前的国际安全形势并不乐观,传统安全威胁依旧没有消除,非传统安全的挑战却日益显现.在复杂的国际安全背景之下,中国政府在国内建设和谐社会的同时,创造生地提出了具有丰富内涵的构建和谐世界的主张,为国际社会在维护世界和平与安全方面树立了典范.实践证明,构建和谐世界是新世纪实现国际安全的根本出路.     

乱中有变,变中有治——2017年国际形势与中国外交

2017年国际形势跌宕起伏,乱象丛生.世界格局"变"与"不变"相互交织,处于重要转型期和深刻变革期,面临大发展大变革大调整.国际力量对比持续"东升西降",世界政治经济中心逐渐向亚太转移.美国将衰未衰,仍然是世界唯一超级大国.中国将强待强,国际影响力不断上升,议程设置权、规则制定权和国际话语权显著增强.在变化的世界格局中,中国的不断发展壮大,是我们最大的内生机遇;国际结构的重组与调整,是我们重要的外生机遇.新时代,中国特色大国外交致力于推动构建新型国际关系、推动构建人类命运共同体,必将为民族伟大复兴和人类命运前途不断做出应有的贡献.     

海湾战争与当前的国际格局

历时四十二天的海湾战争终于落下帷幕,这场一度引起世界各国密切关注的局部性战争,势必对交替转换中的国际格局产生着重要的影响。八十年代中期以来,世界主要大国开始侧重于综合国力的竞赛。这种多层次的竞赛不仅包括军事和政治,而且更包含经济与科技。海湾战争后的国际格局,是一种以美国为主导的多极世界。这种格局包含着以下三个层次——军事上,美国为强有力的一极;政治上,以联合国安理会常任理事国美苏中英法为五个主角;经济上,则以日美德为三个中心。     

科技创新与国际格局重塑

科技创新意味着人类对客观世界的认知和利用能力的改善与提升。科技创新及其所引发的科技革命和产业变革,通过生产方式更新,导致国家实力消长、力量对比改变和规则调整,最终引发国际格局转型甚至重塑。当今世界正在经历深刻的历史之变,科技创新正在重塑国际格局。如何应对科技创新带来的国际格局变迁,已成为世界各国亟需破解的重大课题。     

“新自由主义”思潮和“美国因素”

观察和研究国际问题,可以有多个“切入点”。在现代国际关系和国际政治的研究中,有两个“点”是不能忽视的,这就是“新自由主义”思潮和“美国因素”。“新自由主义”思潮风行于世界已经20多年,成为世界主流意识形态,也是西方大国特别是美国的国内政策和国际战略的指导思想。“美国因素”则在世界上无所不在。从苏东剧变到伊拉克战争,     

"世界多极化"提法辨析

通常所说的世界格局多极化,简称世界多极化,或者就叫多极化.世界格局是指具有世界影响的力量(国家)或力量中心(国家集团)的布局及其相互作用的战略结构状态,多极化则是当今世界格局表现的主要特征.所谓的世界影响,其构成包含经济、政治、军事、科技乃至文化等多方面的综合因素,而不仅是政治因素.冷战结束前曾经出现的所谓美苏两极,就是指美国和苏联的经济、政治和军事综合实力加之各自控制的经济和军事集团在世界上产生着其他任何力量都不可企及的巨大影响.今天,在多极化趋势进一步发展的条件下,美国仍强调和鼓吹它领导下的"一极世界"("单极世界"),就是凭借它这个惟一超级大国所拥有的综合实力.     

"9·11"后的大国关系变化及其对国际格局的影响

2001年9月11日针对美国国防部和纽约世贸大楼两大军事、经济中心的恐怖袭击是迄今人类历史上空前规模的一次恐怖主义事件,沉重打击了美国,也震撼了整个世界.它不仅是2001年的世界大事,也是世纪大事.它预示着新世纪仍将是一个很不安宁、更加复杂多变的世纪.这次事件及随后美国发动的反恐战争对整个国际关系特别是大国关系以及国际格局产生了重大而深远的影响.     

反恐:成效有限困难不断

2006年,在美国的不当政策刺激下,恐怖主义与反恐问题继续成为影响地区和世界安全形势的重要因素,越反越恐的国际反恐困局愈加严重,反恐进入持久较量的相持阶段.恐怖活动日益出现一些新动向和新趋势,反恐继续牵制美国的内外政策.2007年,反恐将依然是美国的战略目标之一,并可能因此而继续制造包袱.     

世界经济:发展呈现新态势

国际油价高企、全球贸易失衡,加大世界经济发展风险.然而,经济全球化与科技创新,使全球应对冲击能力增强,世界经济在高油价下持续稳健扩张,呈现出新的发展态势.     

Power and transformational and transactional leadership in public and private organizations

Ten public and 35 private organizations located in Central New York State participated in a university- sponsored research project to study the effects of organizational characteristics upon types of leadership (transformational/transactional) and power demonstrated by supervisors. Public sector organizations in which managers had low control over rewards were compared to private sector organizations in which managers had high control over rewards.

Followers perceived public sector supervisors as more inspirational by their followers and they used more active management-by-exception behavior than those in private organizations. Private sector supervisors had more reward, legitimate and coercive power than supervisors in public sector organizations.     

Natural Resources and Small Island Economies: Mauritius and Trinidad and Tobago

Abstract

Historically, small economies, especially resource-rich ones, underperformed on average relative to their larger counterparts. Small island economies appear still more disadvantaged due to remoteness from both markets and agglomeration economies. Yet a comparison of two small island economies with similar initial conditions other than their mineral endowment suggests that policy outweighs size, isolation and resource endowment in determining economic performance. Resource-poor Mauritius adopted an unfashionable policy of export manufacturing that systematically eliminated surplus labour, which drove economic diversification that sustained rapid GDP growth and political maturation. Like most resource-rich economies, Trinidad and Tobago pursued policies that absorbed rent too rapidly, which impeded diversification and created an illusory prosperity vulnerable to collapse.     

Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians and why Novorossiya failed

This article discusses two inter-related issues. Firstly, the factors lying behind Russia's fervent belief that its Novorossiya (New Russia) project, aimed to bring back to Russia eight oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhhya, Odesa, Mykolayiv, and Kherson in eastern and southern Ukraine and launched during the 2014 “Russian Spring,” would be successful. Russian identity misunderstood, and continues to misunderstand, Ukraine and Ukrainians through stereotypes and myths of Ukraine as an “artificial state” and Ukraine's Russian speakers as “fraternal brothers” and Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” (odin narod). Secondly, why Ukrainian national identity was different than these Russian stereotypes and myths and how this led to the failure of the Novorossiya project. Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians came face to face with the reality of Russian-speaking Ukrainian patriotism and their low support for the Russkij Mir (Russian World). The article compares Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians with how Ukrainians see themselves to explain the roots of the 2014 crisis, “Russian Spring,” and failure of Russian President Vladimir Putin's Novorossiya project.     

Earnings and ethnicity in Trinidad and Tobago

This study employs 1993 Continuous Sample Survey of the Population (CSSP) data for Trinidad and Tobago to investigate the determinants of earnings by ethnicity. The data, organised into three ethnic groupings, reveal lower levels of remuneration in the labour market for Africans and Indians than for individuals of other ethnicities taken as a whole. While the larger portion of the earnings differentials generally appears to be explained by ethnic differences in characteristics valued by the labour market, Africans and Indians would benefit substantially if they were to receive the same rates of remuneration for their educational endowments as workers of other ethnicities in the Trinidad and Tobago labour market. Notwithstanding Indians’ lowest average earnings, Africans appear more likely to be discriminated against.     

现代化与未成年人犯罪

未成人犯罪随着现代化的发展而发展，这可以说是一种国际现象。在现代化进程中，我国未成年人犯罪大量增多的原因在于：未成年人生理、心理发展不平衡，家庭教育存在缺失，学校教育存在不足，社会上存在着很多消极因素。在现代化进程中，必须采取有效对策，控制未成年人犯罪增多，才能保障未成年人健康成长。     

Country size and economic growth and development

This paper attempts to provide limited empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between country size and rates of economic growth and levels of economic development, and on the possible effects of trade concentration and dependence on trade on this relationship. It suggests that there is no discernible association between country size and economic development, nor between country size and economic growth, and that neither the dependence on trade of small countries nor their commodity and geographic export concentration are necessarily important factors in economic growth and economic development.     

Government and Corruption: Scylla and Charybdis

Using public sector employment and corruption perception data for 72 countries across the world, this article demonstrates that despite common notion countries with “smaller” governments do not tend to have lower corruption. Under general assumptions, one can demonstrate that there is an optimal size of public sector employment corresponding to the highest capital intensity. The model has several implications: lower optimal sizes of governments for labor intensive countries and higher sizes for capital intensive ones, possibility to reduce corruption paying a cost of suboptimal output, and a higher “price” of an oversized government for labor intensive countries.     

“两抢”犯罪的趋势与防控

根据最近16年的统计数据，我国“两抢”犯罪总体呈上升态势，且出现多方面的特点。当前，影响“两抢”犯罪变化趋势的因素主要有：社会管理机制完善的程度、社会成员之间收入的差距、“两抢”犯罪主体特点、社会成员的防范意识以及公安机关的防控机制等。预防“两抢”犯罪需要整个社会尤其是公安机关的共同努力。