俄罗斯亚太能源战略评析——基于远东油气管道项目的视角

俄罗斯远东地区油气储量巨大,21世纪初,俄罗斯能源战略明确提出开发东西伯利亚和远东油气资源、加快能源基础设施建设的倡议,并将亚太地区作为未来俄罗斯油气出口地理结构多元化的优先发展方向。"西伯利亚力量"天然气管道和"东西伯利亚—太平洋"石油管道是俄罗斯通往亚太地区的两大油气运输基础设施项目,2019年底这两大项目草案均取得了重要进展。随着远东油气管道的建设与开通,中俄能源关系日益密切,双方都致力于从能源关系多样化的角度构筑有利于彼此的能源安全体系,有望结成利益与共的能源命运共同体。同时,俄罗斯也在积极发展与亚太其他国家的能源关系,推动建立亚太能源安全体系。鉴于俄罗斯向亚太市场供应能力的持续增强,将促使原有的区域能源供需关系和国际能源格局发生改变。然而,资金、消费市场、地缘安全环境等不确定因素对俄罗斯亚太能源战略的未来走势形成制约。为此,在当前全球能源生产呈多中心化趋势、能源需求重心东移的背景下,亟须建立行之有效的亚太多边能源对话与合作机制,搭建起亚洲能源生产和消费的共享平台,逐步实现能源基础设施的互联互通以共同防范外部冲击、避免无序竞争,增强区域整体的能源实力。     

Against All Odds? Russia’s Financial Crisis and Global Geopolitics

Over the past 15 years, Russia’s model of political-economy has evolved around three main channels of global economic integration: 1) export of natural resources and a national system of redistribution of export revenues; 2) financialisation, acting as a boost for domestic consumption/demand; and 3) the offshore integration of Russian capital into global capital markets. The current crisis is affecting all three channels of Russia’s global political economy. Together, reduced export revenues, the deepening financial crisis and the dominance of offshore-sourced investments into Russia, serve as crisis transmission mechanisms, and thus constitute three sets of (inter-related) dilemmas for the Russian authorities. Four scenarios of possible development of the current situation are provided.     

东北亚地区天然气合作:前景与问题

俄罗斯和中亚油气将成为东北亚能源的重要供应来源。欧亚大陆的天然气市场一体化水平低,提高东北亚地区天然气市场一体化水平的途径是加快构建欧亚天然气管道网以及提高液化天然气产量。俄罗斯东部天然气开发战略与出口气源地建设对此至关重要。     

俄中石油天然气领域合作的几点思考

俄罗斯和中国分别为世界上最大的石油出口国和进口国之一 ,资源互补为双方能源合作提供了物质基础。但未来俄中两国在石油天然气领域的合作将在很大程度上取决于外部因素———世界能源市场的反常形势的影响。美国始终把控制能源放在国家利益的重要位置 ,在成功推倒萨达姆政权后 ,美国必将加强对中东的控制 ,从而控制世界能源的关键部分 ,获得未来世界石油市场中的主导权并主宰新世纪的石油价格。俄罗斯目前的主要战略问题是加强国家对油气田的控制 ,需要解决 3个根本任务 :1 在全球扩张的各种文明之间保持平稳 ;2 由国家控制自然资源的开采 ;3 国家加强对能源公司的控制。     

Europe’s triple by-pass

Periodic contestations over gas transit from Russia westwards to Europe, as in January 2009, have demonstrated the fractured nature of relations among states that each on their own plays a vital role in the maintenance of the European energy sector. More importantly, the January crisis has reinforced the concept that energy security goes beyond existing conceptions of access to upstream supply balanced by consumer demand. Up to now, the track record along the European energy value chain has prioritised short-term macro-solutions over longer term, step by step confidence building micro approaches. What becomes of energy trade in Europe may depend upon a fundamental re-thinking of energy based both on the understanding of the good as a purely economic commodity and on our institutional ability to coordinate the energy trade as a collective across a vast landscape of divergent economic and political interests. Subsequently, this article seeks to identify the sources of inaccurate structural interpretations of the policy environment, the unintended consequences derived from sub-optimal policy choices and to present workable solutions to existing risks to the stability of EU/Russia energy trade.     

全球金融危机背景下俄罗斯的亚太外交

俄罗斯是一个横跨欧亚大陆的国家,亚太地区在俄罗斯外交政策中占据重要地位。俄罗斯新任总统梅德韦杰夫继续实行务实、平衡的亚太政策。面对各种传统和非传统安全威胁,应对全球金融经济危机的严峻挑战,俄罗斯积极开展亚太地区外交活动。俄罗斯积极发展与亚太地区邻国的关系,特别是俄罗斯与中印的战略伙伴关系,广泛参加亚太地区事务,开展多边对话与合作。俄罗斯积极推动国际金融结构和货币体系改革,扩大亚太地区政治、经济、安全对话与合作,以及亚太地区安全体系建设。通过发展俄罗斯与亚太地区关系,促进了俄罗斯东西伯利亚和远东地区的经济发展,为俄罗斯大国外交开拓亚太战略空间。     

The role of Russian gas in China’s energy supply strategy

China’s gas industry has witnessed a massive expansion and Chinese energy planners envisage a huge development of natural gas in China until 2030. This growth requires large-scale imports of gas in the coming two decades. This article discusses the role of Russian gas exports in China’s gas expansion. It analyses China’s natural gas growth in the coming decades, based on the projections of China’s domestic production capacity and the consequent necessity of large-scale pipeline gas imports from Russia, the Central Asian Republics, and Myanmar. Included in the projections are LNG imports from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Australia, North America, and East Africa. The article explains how Russia is trying to avoid depending exclusively on the China market by using the options of gas exports to Korea and Japan. However, it concludes that Russia’s pipeline gas exports to China will play an important role in China’s energy supply plan in the coming decades.     

俄罗斯与东北亚地区的能源合作

当今世界,能源问题已成为各国关注的焦点问题之一。目前,围绕能源的国际合作与竞争正不断加强。东北亚这个最具发展潜力的地区,随着经济的发展,能源消费与需求不断增加,能源的进口也随之加大,尤其是中、日、韩三国。俄罗斯是世界上能源生产与出口大国,因而与东北亚地区其他国家之间存在着较强的互补性。俄罗斯同东北亚国家的能源合作,不仅可加快其融入东北亚及亚太市场的步伐,而且有利于东北亚地区的能源安全。     

中俄农业台作前景广阔——中俄农业十大互补性探析

中俄两国农业具有广泛的互补性:(1)俄土地资源丰富,中国人均土地资源较少;(2)俄出现人口危机,农业劳动力资源匮乏,中国农业劳动力资源丰富;(3)俄近期是中国农机产品的广阔市场;(4)中国将长期进口俄罗斯钾肥;(5)明日的俄罗斯可能成为中国的粮仓;(6)俄将是中国园艺产品的长期市场;(7)俄是中国传统的茶叶市场;(8)俄将是中国猪肉和禽肉的主要出口市场;(9)中国将是俄罗斯牛肉和乳制品的主要出口市场;(10)中俄双方农业科技各具优势,互补互利,加强合作,可促进两国农业经济共同繁荣。中俄农业有着坚实的合作基础和美好的合作前景。目前中俄农业合作仍然存在一些限制因素,但是只要中俄双方都从战略协作伙伴关系的大局着想,从中俄睦邻世代友好的长远利益着想,这些问题都会在不断合作与理解的过程中逐步得到解决。     

亚太格局视角下俄罗斯的东南亚政策

冷战后随着俄罗斯国家定位的变化,其对外战略相应发生调整,亚太地区成为基本方向之一。进入新世纪,俄罗斯外交的平衡性和多向性不断加强;在其亚太战略中,东盟被看作参与亚太地区多边合作的重要支点。在变动的亚太格局中,东南亚是大国竞逐的重要对象;俄罗斯从自身利益出发,积极发展与东盟及其成员国的关系,以加强对亚太地区事务的参与。而在东盟的大国平衡战略中,俄罗斯被视为制约其他大国的关键性因素。     

伊拉克战争对俄罗斯经济的影响

俄罗斯经济对外贸,尤其是出口的依存度很高,外部行情的变化容易引起俄罗斯经济的波动。伊拉克战争影响石油市场价格走向,从而影响俄罗斯经济。     

俄罗斯经济重新崛起的前景分析

基于最近几年经济的强势增长,西方国家的媒体开始越来越多地关注和讨论俄罗斯重新崛起问题,把俄罗斯、巴西、印度、中国称为未来40年经济发展最快的4个新兴市场国家,认为30年后俄罗斯将成为欧洲首屈一指的经济大国。俄罗斯的确正在致力于寻求以经济崛起为先导的全方位崛起,而且经济崛起的步伐的确在加快。然而,尽管她重新崛起的目标清晰,优势不少,但俄罗斯经济并不是一好百好。要真正实现以经济重新崛起为先导的全方位崛起,完成大国向强国的转换,还会遇到许多难题,还存在许多制约因素。俄罗斯重新崛起仍将是任重而道远。     

Solitude in Europe for the communists

The Russian government sincerely believes that Assad’s removal from power would trigger the expansion of jihadism and instability in the Caucasus and southern Russia. Moscow is deeply concerned about the rise of Islamists in the Middle East, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia's efforts to support the most radical factions in Syria. At the same time, the obvious absence of the ideological background behind current Russian-Syrian relations makes them a trade item. Thus, official guarantees that the jihadists will not export their revolution elsewhere accompanied by promises to preserve some Russian economic positions in post-Assad Syria will probably create the necessary ground for the emergence of a compromise stance on Syria (including the issue of foreign intervention).     

The common European security and defence policy and the ‘third‐country’ issue

The Common European Security and Defence Policy (CESDP) of the European Union (EU) was launched in 1999 and has been perceived as a landmark step toward European security cooperation, particularly in the field of crisis management. Still in its early stages, some difficult issues have become apparent. Of these, the so‐called ‘third‐country’ issue may prove to be among the most significant. This problem refers to the necessity of associating states outside the EU with CESDP. In this regard, three states stand out — the United States, Turkey and Russia — and this article considers their concerns and the European response in detail. This is prefaced by a general overview of how the third‐country problem emerged and what the EU has done to address it. It concludes by suggesting that third‐country considerations could well determine where and how EU‐led missions operating under the auspices of CESDP are deployed.     

黑龙江省对俄贸易发展的“瓶颈”问题与对策

黑龙江省作为中国沿边开放大省,对俄罗斯贸易额占全国对俄进出口总额的四分之一以上。然而,黑龙江省对俄贸易还存在着石油进口比重过高、产业结构与出口产品结构层次不高、地产品比例相对较低等问题。要突破政策力度亟待加大、资金支持亟待增加、基础设施亟待完善、协调机制亟待健全等“瓶颈”问题,亟须创造宽松政策环境、打破资金制约、改善基础设施状况、明确战略方向重点,从而加速黑龙江省对俄贸易发展,打造沿边重要经济增长极。     

冷战时期苏联的石油与天然气:效能和限度——俄罗斯石油:军事战中的效能

20世纪60年代以来,苏联以石油与天然气生产和出口大国的面目出现,西伯利亚在其中起到支撑性的作用。苏联油气攻势是在欧洲两极格局形成后逐渐展开的。进入80年代,美国的油气遏制对苏联产生了很大影响。     

Normative power and organized hypocrisy: European Union member states' arms export to Libya

The 2011 Libyan civil war prompted a reassessment of the normative foundation of the EU's conventional arms export control regime as armaments manufactured in Europe were used by Gaddafi's forces during the war. The EU's foreign policy identity is based, partly, upon a common approach to arms export involving respect for common criteria for export licences. Yet, prior to the civil war, considerable amounts of military equipment had been exported by member states to Libya, notwithstanding grounds for restraint on the basis of several of the criteria. This article traces member states' arms export to Libya during 2005–2010 to explore whether member states favoured restraint or export promotion. It concludes that although aware of the risks of exporting, in a competitive market for military goods, member states sought commercial advantage over restraint, and comprehensively violated export control principles. This casts doubts on assertions of the EU acting as a “normative power”.     

The Balkans and Euro-Atlantic Energy Security

Europe’s current energy crisis underscores its failure to deal adequately with the problems posed by increasing dependence one Russian gas. Particularly in the Balkans Russia’s oligopolistic position if not monopoly in some countries adds to its leverage upon them, stimulates corruption and state capture, and in general inhibits the European integration project. Nevertheless, there are opportunities to bring more gas into the Balkans and through them to Central Europe to reduce Russia’s hegemonic position in the gas market and reverse the trend towards illiberalism and poor governance that marks the region. Albania’s example and the connections to its neighbors that flow form its EU-approved plan illustrate what should be done and how such programs would improve energy and governance, if not security, in the Balkans and Europe as a whole.     

2005年上半年俄罗斯对外贸易浅析

2005年上半年,俄罗斯对外贸易继续保持大幅度增长,与欧盟国家的贸易伙伴关系进一步密切.外贸出口增势强劲,外贸进口快速增长.对外贸易增长依赖国际市场能源、原材料有利行情的同时,国内需求增长对外贸的正面影响进一步显现.下半年俄罗斯对外贸易仍会平稳增长,但增势可能趋缓.     

Illegal Migration: Russia

The author interprets issues related to illegal migration in Russia in the context of the new general international migration situation in the Euro-Asian region that resulted from collapse of the USSR and integration of the newly independent states in the world migration flows. The fact that Russia acts as a sending and—to a much greater extent—as a receiving and transit country is crucial for understanding the nature, reasons, challenges, and perspectives of illegal migration. The “multi-layer” character of illegal migration in Russia needs a diversity of approaches to how best to fight against security threats rooted in it. The major portion of illegal migrants in Russia are in fact labor migrants form former Soviet states, and their illegal status is often due to extremely complicated official registration procedure. The government’s official position in managing this type of illegal migrant (in terms of punishment, legalization, or granting citizenship if wanted) should be different from actions against numerous transit illegal migrants from Asian and African countries who use Russia as a waystation on their way to Europe or other developed regions. However, these transit migrants are mainly managed by migrant-traffickers. Along the borders of Russia, especially with China, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine there exist numerous well-organized channels for migrant smuggling. Therefore, the main efforts at national and regional levels should be directed against criminal trafficking organizations. They should be joined efforts of all the concerned countries.