泰国军人与泰国政治发展

1932年,泰国军队首领与文官领袖合作,结成“人民团”,成功地变革了泰国政体——改君主专制为君主立宪制。从此,泰国军人在推动和改变政治发展与社会进步方向,表现出举足轻重的作用。这一时期的军人,由于受西方文化意识和民主改革思潮的影响,有着追求时代进步思想的倾向,因而以新时代的政治发展家和社会改革家姿态,在促进国家的发展繁荣与社会进步、建立民主政治制度方面,发挥了积极的作用。遗憾的是,后来一个时期,泰国军人在政治上的积极作用改变了。从1947年至1973年,泰国先后经     

当代泰国政治经济发展轨迹剖析

本文对半个世纪来泰国政治经济发展轨迹进行回顾和剖析 ,指出泰国政治经历了由军人专制统治向议会民主制过度的艰难历程。经济从 6 0年代起开始发生结构变化 ,经历了 80年代的迅速发展和 90年代的金融危机 ,在新的 2 1世纪面临着增强国际竞争能力艰巨任务。     

台湾政党政治的腐败与政治转型

近二十年来,金钱政治以一种看似矛盾和不自觉的方式,破坏着台湾执政党和政府及官员的政治形象、权力结构和统治基础,以一种潜在的力量推动着它们的政党政治和政治体制由一元的模式向多元的模式变化,从而加快了多元政治的发展;同时,在巩固民主的过程中,它以一种瓦解体制的形式阻碍着民主制度的形成和稳定.进一步来说,这种腐败在政党政治和政治发展的不同阶段可以产生不同的作用,它或是在巩固政治转型阶段推动政治转型和民主化,或是在巩固民主的阶段推动或阻碍民主的发展,但其总的表现形式都是瓦解体制.     

泰国民主政治：现状与问题

泰国民主化进程至今虽已 70年 ,但长期的军人干政使民主政治的发展一度受阻。 2 0世纪末随着军人势力的退出 ,民主政治再次获得发展 ,并在 1 997年颁布了具有里程碑意义的新宪法。本文就泰国民主政治的发展现状与问题进行了分析     

从泰国军人干政看发展中国家政治制度危机

军事政变不仅是一种军事行动,更是一种政治行动.本文试图通过对泰国军事政变的分析,探讨在发展中国家军人干政的原理.本文认为,政变的发生取决于一个国家的社会结构因素和政治制度因素,其中政治参与的无序化与领导人退出机制的不完善是引发军事政变的最重要原因.虽然军人干政在历史上曾经起过积极作用,但在现代社会,军人干政已经不适应甚至危害民主政治的发展.为解决这个问题,发展中国家应该从调整社会结构、扩大政治参与和提升政治制度化水平等三个方面持续地付出努力.     

再论泰国的社会结构变化、精英选择与政治发展

泰国独特的社会意识结构决定了泰国政治发展的特色.泰国独特的社会意识结构包括主-仆关系结构与德行信仰两个方面,两个方面的共同特点是强烈的物质化倾向,这一点为理解泰国政坛的频繁变换提供了一个很好的线索,也提供了预期泰国政治发展的一个思路.     

军政关系与缅甸政治发展道路的形成——兼论其对外交关系的影响

自现代国家建立之后,缅甸便致力于走议会制民主政治道路,但其发展却屡遭挫折.纵观缅甸跌宕起伏的政治发展进程,其命运始终与军人集团紧密关联,军政关系是直接决定缅甸政治发展道路的重要因素.军政关系既是塑造缅甸政治结果的核心机制,也是理解其政治发展道路的关键密钥.在1988年"缅甸之春"之后,军人集团开启了"渐进性脱离"模式的政治民主化转型,军人集团全面领导、设计和构建了"有纪律的民主"这种具有缅甸特色的政治体制.事实上,缅甸"有纪律的民主"并不是绝对意义上的西方式民主政体,而是一种兼具威权统治方式与民主政治规则的"混合政体".军人集团构建"有纪律的民主"这种特殊"混合政体"的根本目的是要继续维持自身对国家的领导,其缘起、形成及建构与缅甸的军政关系有着极为密切的关系.同时,"有纪律的民主"也是缅甸探索走具有本国特色政治发展道路的结果.文章通过结合军政关系来理解缅甸在1988年后的政治发展道路的形成机制,这将丰富对于军政关系、"混合政体"及军人政权转型等方面的研究,也有益于认知当代后发国家自主探索走具有本国特色发展道路的特殊规律和前沿动态.     

枢密院在泰国政治体系中的作用:"平行国家"的视角

作为泰国政治制度的重要组成部分,枢密院在泰国政治中的作用深刻反映了国家建设与民主政治之间的关系.作为朱拉隆功改革的成果,枢密院有助于君主加强集权,从而推动泰国的国家建设.泰国民主政治进程启动后,经过普密蓬国王及前枢密院主席炳· 廷素拉暖数十年的经营,枢密院逐渐成为国王汇聚政治资源的场所.国王通过枢密院成员的社会网络缔造了其与军队、司法机构的政治联盟,形成与民选政府相对的"平行国家",但民选的他信或亲他信政府凭借选票所代表的民意支持,冲击了"平行国家"相对于民选政府所具有的权力优势.作为"平行国家"的枢纽,枢密院通过传递信号、为政变背书及支持非民选政府组建等方式来维护"平行国家"的权威及利益.     

20世纪中后期以来泰国发展模式变革的进程、路径与前景

冷战期间,泰国在军人集团主导下先后进行了两次发展模式变革,有力地推动了社会经济跨越式发展。20世纪90年代初,随着城市中产阶级的政治崛起,泰国再次进行发展模式变革,但是,照搬西方的"选举民主体制—全面自由化道路"发展模式未能取得预期成效,反而引发危机。进入21世纪,泰国新资本集团在农民群体支持下推动新一轮发展模式变革,结果在存量改革困境下,引发了严重的政治冲突与社会分裂。2014年,泰国军方再次发动政变,强行接管改革主导权。从目前来看,泰国要构建稳定、有序、可持续的发展模式,必须首先完善协商机制,并在此基础上依托中泰战略合作契机形成兼顾各方利益集团的发展共识。     

21世纪初泰国军人集团政治回归的路径、动因与前景

21世纪初,泰国军方在国家发展模式变革过程中先后两次发动政变,重返权力核心.本文认为,促成泰国军人集团政治回归的主要动因在于既得利益集团的“反他信”共识,保守阵营复兴传统政治秩序的需要,以及社会民众对安定、和谐与发展的诉求.军人集团掌权后,通过创新制度安排、重塑传统意识形态、压制反对力量等方式,试图恢复传统政治秩序下的寡头权力结构.从目前看,泰国政治前景将在很大程度上取决于经济复苏进程.除非巴育政府能利用外部资源有效破解存量改革难题,否则新一轮的政治冲突与权力博弈很可能再次发生.     

最早的武士家训《北条重时家训》——以作者及其思想受容为中心

武士家训是了解武士道的内含、武士生活及其思想的重要史料。一般认为日本现存最早的武士家训是北条重时所作的《六波罗殿御家训》与《极乐寺殿御消息》，即《北条重时家训》。但是从内容来看，《六波罗殿御家训》的作者很可能并非北条重时，而是北条泰时为长子北条时氏所作。此家训的内容受到佛教三世思想的影响，还体现了儒家的“礼治”思想。《极乐寺殿御消息》的内容可以看作神、佛、儒、道思想的综合体，包含了武士道最初的意义内涵及精神实质，为后世的各种武士道体系提供了理论基础。     

Reviews

Books reviewed:
Burns Colonial Habits: Convents and the Spiritual Economy of Cuzco, Peru
Socolow The Women of Colonial Latin America
Dunkerley Americana. The Americas in the World, around 1850 (or 'Seeing the Elephant' as the Theme for an Imaginary Western)
Wasserman Everyday Life and Politics in Nineteenth Century Mexico. Men, Women and War
Alonso Between Revolution and the Ballot Box. The Origins of the Argentine Radical Party
Peard Race, Place, and Medicine: The Idea of the Tropics in Nineteenth-Century Brazilian Medicine
Iverleigh The Politics of Religion in an Age of Revival
Dore and Molyneaux Hidden Histories of Gender and the State in Latin America
Ehlers Silent Looms: Women and Production in a Guatemalan Town
Townsend, Zapata, Rowlands, Alberti and Mercado, eds Women and Power: Fighting Patriarchies and Poverty
Higgins and Coen Streets, Bedrooms and Patios: The Ordinariness of Diversity of Urban Oaxaca
Vila Crossing Borders – Reinforcing Borders: Social Categories, Metaphors, and Narrative Identities on the US–Mexico Frontier
Rochín and Valdés Voices of a New Chicano/o History
Flores From Bomba to Hip-hop: Puerto Rican Culture and Latino Identity
Early and Peters The Xilixana Yanomami of the Amazon: History, Social Structure, and Population Dynamics
Díaz-Briquets and Pérez-López Conquering Nature: The Environmental Legacy of Socialism in Cuba
Hall Amazonia At The Crossroads: the Challenge of Sustainable Development
Clifton The Politics of Telecommunications in Mexico: Privatization and State-Labour Relations, 1982–1995     

Precarity and Political Immobilisation: Migrants from Burma in Chiang Mai,Thailand

An estimated 1.5 million citizens of Burma reside as refugees or migrants in Thailand, where harsh treatment, harassment and social stigmas contribute to a climate of precarity. Although one possible course of action for any community under strain is political mobilisation, for migrants from Burma in the northern city of Chiang Mai, high degrees of exploitation and insecurity have generated an overwhelming disinterest in political issues. The article examines this relationship in five main sections. The first presents the two key concepts that structure the analysis: precarity and political mobilisation. The second examines the context of migration from Burma to Thailand, focusing both on the climate of unrest found in much of Burma and on Thailand's treatment of migrant workers, its non-participation in core international legislation and its sub-standard migrant registration system. The third explains how this study of Burmese migrants in Chiang Mai was undertaken and reviews the ethical considerations required in a study of vulnerable groups. The fourth documents the study's findings and presents migrants' testimony. The fifth seeks to explain the link between precarity and political passivity in this case, and considers the wider implications. The concluding section restates the core finding.     

《源氏物语》与《蜻蛉日记》之间关系探微

《源氏物语》与《蜻蛉日记》两部文学作品之间关系密切,《源氏物语》是《蜻蛉日记》的继承、扬弃与超越。本论从两位女性作家的执笔动机、文论观念、女性意识3个方面推考两部著作的内在联系。两部作品中的若干相同与相似重申了被男性主流文学掠过边缘经典女流文学的价值,正是这一边缘经典文学更为真实记录了当时社会现状、女性思想、男女的情感生活,两位女性作家的叙事才情更是勿容忽视。     

李穑与《论语》在高丽末期的传播

高丽末期著名学者李穑入主成均馆之后,积极推广朱子学说,研读、讲授《论语》等经典。他还为国王讲授《论语》,并创作了富有特色的《论语》"经筵诗",他的其他诗文也大量引用了《论语》,理学意味很浓厚。由于李穑的这些努力,《论语》的传播随着性理学的发展而呈现出了新的面貌,其在高丽末期政治、文化生活中也发挥了积极的作用。     

制度设计与现代化的挫折——试论1947年《缅甸联邦宪法》与缅甸发展战略的选择

1947年<缅甸联邦宪法>的经济指导原则反映了民族主义精英对独立后缅甸发展战略的构想,即以国有经济为基础对西方国家进行赶超.该战略尤其在奈温时期得到了强化.由于政府垄断了国内国际贸易,价格扭曲,资源配置不当,国有经济大多效率低下,缺乏竞争力,私有经济发展受到限制,因而经济增长多年在低水平徘徊.缅甸选择发展战略的错误,使其未能发挥比较优势,建立市场经济体制,这是缅甸现代化挫折的根本原因.     

The Unexpected Effect of the 2001 Crisis: The Revival of Right-Wing Mobilisation in Argentina

The mass protests of December 2001 were a turning point in Argentine politics. However, their effects in the mid- to long term have been less clear. This article argues that the 2001 crisis had two distinct consequences. The first, which was expected and immediate, was the stimulus given to left-wing grassroots organisations. The other, unexpected and deferred, was the revitalisation of right-wing collectives in subsequent years. The article uses a multiple technique approach.     

马来西亚政局突变的混沌学解读

2008年的马来西亚大选,出现了所有政评家都意想不到的结果,即执政的国阵失去数十年以来一直保有的多数国会议席和五个州政权.本文运用混沌理论对此"不规则"现象进行解读,先后分析选前形势,印度人示威及其对其他族群选民的影响,网络传播与政治动员的关系等.本文认为,政治领域和其他领域一样,也存在"混沌"或"不规则", "网络政治"特点,使当代政治的"不规则"日渐增多,传统定常的政治分析方法面临着新的挑战.     

Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.     

State fragility in Africa: Methods chasing problems or problems chasing methods in political discourse?

Abstract

The article critiques the inadequacy of the conceptions and definitions of state fragility, failure and weakness in Africa. The dominant accounts of state failure, weakness and fragility tend to look at the superficial appearance and not at the multi-causal economic, political and discursive foundations of an African state. The article argues that a deeper and alternative discourse about state failure, fragility and weakness in Africa needs to address the basic question of what the character and nature of the African state are. The article broaches this question by analysing the conceptions of state failure, fragility and weakness, and then provides a comprehensive account of the character and nature of post-colonial states in Africa. The intention here is to show that the form and content of post-colonial states in Africa have been a contested and inadequately theorised phenomenon for many years.