Complex mixtures: A critical examination of a paper by Homer et al.

DNA evidence in criminal cases may be challenging to interpret if several individuals have contributed to a DNA-mixture. The genetic markers conventionally used for forensic applications may be insufficient to resolve cases where there is a small fraction of DNA (say less than 10%) from some contributors or where there are several (say more than 4) contributors. Recently methods have been proposed that claim to substantially improve on existing approaches [1]. The basic idea is to use high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping arrays including as many as 500,000 markers or more and explicitly exploit raw allele intensity measures. It is claimed that trace fractions of less than 0.1% can be reliably detected in mixtures with a large number of contributors. Specific forensic issues pertaining to the amount and quality of DNA are not discussed in the paper and will not be addressed here. Rather our paper critically examines the statistical methods and the validity of the conclusions drawn in Homer et al. (2008) [1].We provide a mathematical argument showing that the suggested statistical approach will give misleading results for important cases. For instance, for a two person mixture an individual contributing less than 33% is expected to be declared a non-contributor. The quoted threshold 33% applies when all relative allele frequencies are 0.5. Simulations confirmed the mathematical findings and also provide results for more complex cases. We specified several scenarios for the number of contributors, the mixing proportions and allele frequencies and simulated as many as 500,000 SNPs.A controlled, blinded experiment was performed using the Illumina GoldenGate^® 360 SNP test panel. Twenty-five mixtures were created from 2 to 5 contributors with proportions ranging from 0.01 to 0.99. The findings were consistent with the mathematical result and the simulations.We conclude that it is not possible to reliably infer the presence of minor contributors to mixtures following the approach suggested in Homer et al. (2008) [1]. The basic problem is that the method fails to account for mixing proportions.     

Self-control behind bars: A validation study of the Grasmick et al. scale

Much empirical support of self-control theory is based on the 24-item scale conceptualized by Grasmick and his colleagues. This study examined the dimensionality of the scale. Exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analyses, and a structural equation model (SEM) produced results that are discordant with much prior research. The Grasmick et al. scale was not unidimensional, more complex theoretical iterations failed to meet most goodness-of-fit statistics, and considerable refinement via modification indices was needed before a measurement model that fit the data could be found. Further refinement is required to justify it as the quintessential measure of self-control.     

Application of Kvaal et al.'s age estimation method to panoramic radiographs from Turkish individuals

Age estimation of living adult individuals can be accomplished with limited methods. Radiographic dental methods based on the pulpal narrowing with secondary dentin formation have been presented. In the present study, Kvaal et al.'s method, one of the radiographic dental age estimation methods, was applied to panoramic radiographs from Turkish individuals. The correlation between chronological and estimated ages was examined and the feasibility of length and width measurements of pulp cavity was evaluated for age estimation. The study population consisted of 123 patients with ages ranging from 14 to 57 years. The measurements of the length and width of six types of teeth on digitized panoramic radiographs were performed, and the ratios between tooth and pulp cavity measurements were calculated. Age was estimated using the linear regression models presented by Kvaal et al. and Paewinsky et al. High differences were observed between chronological and estimated ages. Measurement ratios showed no significant or weak correlation with age. The linear regression models were derived using variables that were significantly correlated with age. The determination coefficients of the models varied from 0.035 to 0.345. In conclusion, a difference of more than 12 years in the chronological and estimated ages derived using regression models in literature was found on panoramic radiographs in Turkish individuals. The length and width of the pulp cavity, measured according to the method of Kvaal et al. using panoramic radiographs, were insufficient to precisely estimate the age of Turkish individuals.