The effectiveness of electronic monitoring with violent male parolees

Research on electronic monitoring (EM) has ignored its effectiveness with high-risk, violent offenders. This article examines the effectiveness of using EM as a supervision tool for violent male parolees by comparing those who were mandated to such supervision who were released in fiscal year 1996 (N = 128) to a random sample who did not receive such supervision who were released in fiscal year 1995 (N = 158). Effectiveness was assessed by examining return to prison and time to failure within four years of release. The results indicated that, after controlling for relevant demographic and criminal history variables, EM had no direct effect on the likelihood of recommitment to prison or time until failure. Parolees who reported drug problems and those with lower parole-success likelihood scores were more likely to fail and to fail more quickly. Sex offenders on EM were less likely to return to prison than those not on EM, and those on EM who eventually returned to prison remained in the community longer than did those not on EM. Implications for the usefulness of EM as a tool in parole supervision are discussed.     

“BACK-END SENTENCING” AND REIMPRISONMENT: INDIVIDUAL,ORGANIZATIONAL, AND COMMUNITY PREDICTORS OF PAROLE SANCTIONING DECISIONS*

An understudied contributor to the massive growth of American incarceration is an increase in the practice of reimprisoning parolees through parole board revocations—now referred to as “back-end sentencing.” To conduct the analyses outlined in this article, we use data from the California Parole Study to analyze the effects of three clusters of factors (parolees' characteristics, organizational pressures, and community conditions) on these sentences. Our analyses are informed by theories that have been used to explain “front-end” (court) sentences, which center on the focal concerns of social-control agents, labeling, and racial threat. Our results indicate that status characteristics—race/ethnicity and gender—affect the likelihood that criminal parole violators are reimprisoned. Moreover, certain “pivotal categories” of parolees—registered sex offenders and those who have committed “serious” or “violent” offenses—are much more likely to be returned to prison than others. Organizational pressure (prison crowding) also affects the likelihood of reimprisonment. Communities' political punitiveness affects the likelihood that technical violators are reimprisoned and that serious or violent offenders are reimprisoned for criminal violations. In this article, we use these findings to consider ways that mass incarceration is driven by both top-down policies as well as bottom-up organizational and community forces.     

MDS use with crime scene data replicates poorly: response to Goodwill,Alison, and Humann (this issue) and Davis (this issue)

Abstract

Examinations of treatment attrition form an important – although sometimes neglected – component of evaluating a correctional programme's effectiveness in reducing recidivism. Previous research has identified offender characteristics that predict non-completion. This study investigated non-completion in 138 high-risk, violent male prisoners attending an intensive cognitive–behavioural programme. Almost one-third of men who commenced it did not complete the 7-month programme. Most asked to leave of their own accord, or were removed for ongoing offending. In contrast to previous research, no support was found for the hypothesis that those who terminated treatment prematurely were more in need of intervention than those who completed the programme; non-completers did not differ from completers on static estimates of criminal risk, PCL-R scores, demographic variables or self-report scales measuring dynamic risk factors. It was concluded that successful prediction using variables related to criminal risk and criminogenic need depends both on the characteristics of programme participants, and on contextual factors such as programme policies: when high-risk high needs offenders are a programme's target clientele, variables related to risk and need will have limited predictive utility. From a practice perspective, the programme was successful in retaining through to completion a relatively untreatable group: high-risk offenders with moderate to high PCL-R scores.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

AN ANALYSIS OF PAROLE DECISION MAKING USING A SAMPLE OF SEX OFFENDERS: A FOCAL CONCERNS PERSPECTIVE*

We use data from pre‐sentence investigations and official parole board records to study the correlates of parole release among a sample of men incarcerated for sexual offenses. Cox proportional hazard models are used to estimate change in the likelihood of parole over time, and the focal concerns theory provides the theoretical framework for the analyses. The findings suggest a complex interplay of legal and extralegal factors in understanding parole release decisions. Parole officials weigh heavily offense seriousness, institutional misconduct, and parole readiness scores in making release decisions. In addition, study results reveal that victim and offender age is a salient factor in determining parole judgments. Overall, the current analysis provides a baseline for future research on parole decision making in general, and sexual offenders, in particular.     

Examining the Effects of Community-Based Sanctions on Offender Recidivism

Offenders who violate their conditions of release (parole violators) pose a threat to public safety and a unique challenge for parole officials. Historically, parole officers have simply revoked the parole of these offenders and returned them to prison; however, increases in state correctional populations have forced many jurisdictions to experiment with sanctions administered by parole officers in the community. Community‐based sanctions are sanctions administered by parole officers as consequences for noncompliance with release conditions that are ultimately intended to reduce parole violators’ odds of recidivism. Yet, the effects of these types of sanctions are still relatively unknown. Drawing from perspectives on formal and informal social control, this study involved an examination of the effect of community‐based sanctions on parole violators’ odds of recidivism. Findings revealed that formal controls such as community‐based sanctions that were applied with certainty, severity, and in a swift manner along with informal controls such as measures of offenders’ stake in conformity had effects on parole violators’ odds of recidivism and time to recidivism.     

Sexual predator civil commitment: a comparison of selected and released offenders

This study compared two groups of sex offenders who were considered for civil commitment under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act: Two hundred twenty-nine sex offenders who were recommended by forensic evaluators to be civilly committed and 221 sex offenders who were recommended for release. It was hypothesized that selected offenders would be more likely to display risk factors for sex offense recidivism than those who did not meet criteria. Data analyses revealed that selected offenders, as a group, scored significantly higher on actuarial risk assessment instruments. There were also significant differences between the groups on other risk factors that have been empirically correlated with sexual recidivism. Selected offenders had higher frequencies of paraphilia diagnoses and antisocial personality. These findings supported the hypotheses and suggested that evaluators are correctly selecting for civil commitment those sex offenders who have a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and who are at higher risk for reoffense.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

Examining Predictors of Parole Release in a Rural Female Jail Population

Parole has long been a linchpin of correctional practices but few studies have examined discretionary parole release in a female population. The current study examines factors, both static risk and dynamic needs, that influence parole decision making in a rural female jail population. The researchers collected data on parole releases from a rural county jail over a 3-year period beginning in 2012 (N?=?138). Offenders obtained a recommendation for parole release from a reentry assessment team that met at the jail each month to evaluate cases for parole eligibility. Logistic regression was used to explain variance in the factors considered by the reentry assessment team and it was evident that both static risk factors and dynamic needs play a role in discretionary parole release. We also examined obstacles or challenges that female offenders face when paroling to a rural location. Several policy recommendation related to the study are addressed.     

Discounting Women: Context Matters in Risk and Need Assessment

Widely used risk/need assessment instruments assume that female offender risks for recidivism are essentially equivalent to those of male offenders. A look at the lives of female and male offenders reveals that there are important differences in the context of both offending and re-offending. This research draws on both quantitative and qualitative data to explore the effectiveness of a well known risk instrument to both predict recidivism and potentially direct intervention efforts. The results, particularly the in-depth interviews with offenders (both male and female) serving time on parole or felony probation reveal differences not detected by most contemporary risk and need assessment instruments. Ultimately, the gendered links among physical and sexual abuse, drugs, and crime are missed in risk and need assessments, thereby placing female offenders at risk for neglect and criminalization in an otherwise seemingly objective method of assessment.     

Prediction of recidivism among “second timers” in the juvenile justice system: Efficiency in screening chronic offenders

Identification of small subgroups of high-risk juvenile offenders from the general population to target them for intervention has proved elusive. It is argued that second-time delinquents represent a group that can be efficiently screened for chronic offenders. With a sample of 298 second-time juvenile offenders, both prospective and retrospective risk instruments are found to predict chronic delinquent behavior well. It is proposed that such risk instruments be used to focus benign intervention on high-risk, second-time juvenile offenders.     

Monitoring high-risk sex offenders with GPS

In response to media attention and public demand, legislation increasingly mandates more stringent surveillance for sex offenders. This trend towards greater supervision resulted in the lifetime GPS monitoring of high-risk sex offenders (HRSO) in California. This study assesses the impact of the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation’s GPS program for HRSOs by employing a quasi-experimental design. The treatment group was drawn from all HRSO who were released from prison and placed on GPS monitoring in California. To identify comparison individuals likely to have pretreatment risk characteristics similar to those in the treatment group, a propensity score matching procedure was performed. The final sample included 516 subjects equally divided between the treatment and control groups. Data was assessed using Cox proportional hazards survival analysis clustering participants by parole district. Results showed the GPS condition was associated with significantly fewer parole registration and arrest violations, arrests, and convictions. These results are discussed in relation to other electronic monitoring research, the policy implications for the increasing use of this technology, and its effectiveness in reducing crime, prison populations, and ensuring public safety.     

Mental Health Service Recipients and Prison Work Release: How Do the Mentally Ill Fare Compared to Other Inmates in Prison Work Release Programs?

The objective of this study was to compare the success rate of the mentally ill and other inmates on prison work release within gender groups. Mentally ill (MI) men (n = 42) had a higher success rate (79%) than other men (NMI) (61%) (n = 49), but this difference only approached statistical significance (p = 0.07), and mental illness did not distinguish male success/failures in regression analyses. Mentally ill women (n = 51) had a statistically significant lower success rate (58%) than other women inmates (n = 49) (83%) on work release. The difference in rates, however, only occurred in the group of women who were currently in prison due to a parole violation, not new court commitments. Regression analysis confirmed the importance of mental illness and current commitment as a parole violator. A greater number of MI men should be allowed to participate in work release. Women with mental health issues who had prior trouble on parole may need enhanced services.     

The parole performance of offenders released from shock incarceration (boot camp prisons): A survival time analysis

The parole performance of offenders who were released after successfully completing a shock incarceration program was examined and compared to the performance of offenders who were serving time on probation or parole after a period of incarceration. Separate survival analyses were performed for recidivism as measured by (1) arrests and (2) failures (jailed, absconded, or revoked). Prior incarceration, age, age at first arrest, and risk assessment score were related to recidivism but type of sentence was not. Intensity of supervision was significantly related to recidivism but this relationship was eliminated when risk level was controlled. There was no evidence that shock incarceration reduces recidivism. Future research should focus on methods of reducing failures during community supervision for these young, nonviolent offenders within the framework of either a shock incarceration program or some other sentence.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the American Probation and Parole Association 14th Annual Training Institute, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, August 1989.     

Serious about Change: A Gendered Examination of the Impact of Offense Type on Parole Success

Female offender populations are growing at an unprecedented rate. The present study examines gender differences among a large sample of male and female offenders as related to seriousness of their offense and success on parole. Data analyzed were originally collected from a random sample of parole case files in California. Results revealed that although gender does significantly impact parole success, seriousness of the offense does not. Other significant factors include age at release on parole, criminal history, and measures of stability upon release. The need for wrap-around services, comprehensive treatment models, and funding for gender-specific services are discussed.     

Are the major risk/need factors predictive of both female and male reoffending?: a test with the eight domains of the level of service/case management inventory

The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) and the Youth version (YLS/CMI) generate an assessment of risk/need across eight domains that are considered to be relevant for girls and boys and for women and men. Aggregated across five data sets, the predictive validity of each of the eight domains was gender-neutral. The composite total score (LS/CMI total risk/need) was strongly associated with the recidivism of males (mean r = .39, mean AUC = .746) and very strongly associated with the recidivism of females (mean r = .53, mean AUC = .827). The enhanced validity of LS total risk/need with females was traced to the exceptional validity of Substance Abuse with females. The intra-data set conclusions survived the introduction of two very large samples composed of female offenders exclusively. Finally, the mean incremental contributions of gender and the gender-by-risk level interactions in the prediction of criminal recidivism were minimal compared to the relatively strong validity of the LS/CMI risk level. Although the variance explained by gender was minimal and although high-risk cases were high-risk cases regardless of gender, the recidivism rates of lower risk females were lower than the recidivism rates of lower risk males, suggesting possible implications for test interpretation and policy.     

Sentencing in child sexual assault cases: factors influencing judicial decision-making

Abstract

To date, there has been limited examination of variables that influence sentencing in child sexual abuse cases. This study examines the extent to which offence characteristics (such as the number of offences, number and age of victims), the behaviour and perceived credibility of the victim impact upon both sentence length and the setting of earliest parole dates. Analyses conducted using data from 66 adjudicated cases of child sexual assault from the County Court of Victoria, Australia revealed that longer sentences were handed down to offenders who had perpetrated multiple offences, or who had committed offences against younger children. Lower levels of victim credibility were associated with shorter sentences and earlier parole dates for offenders, which were also associated with the presence of more harmful behavioural indicators of abuse. The findings are discussed regarding the importance of presenting evidence about the behaviour of victims following sexual abuse in criminal trials.     

The idea of selective release

We interviewed 203 juvenile inmates housed in a juvenile corrections facility in New Orleans, using a revised version of the Rand instrument developed by Chaiken and Chaiken. The purpose was to demonstrate how prediction scales, used in the past to identify high-rate offenders for selective incapacitation, actually may be more suitable for identifying low-rate offenders for selective release. Our results show that the prediction scale performed worse at identifying high-rate offenders but better at identifying low-rate offenders. We discuss the policy implications of our findings.     

The PCL-R and violent recidivism in a prospective follow-up of a nationwide sample of female offenders

Psychopathy has been linked to violent reoffending in men, but the findings in women have been contradictory. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) for violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of female violent offenders. The offenders (n = 48) had been assessed by the PCL-R and were followed after their release from prison or a psychiatric hospital. The average follow-up period was 8 years. Of the offenders, 16 (33%) had been reconvicted of a violent crime. Current findings of the performance indicators did not support the use of the PCL-R as a predictive instrument assessing risk of violent recidivism in females. The findings indicate that impulsivity plays a crucial role in female violent recidivism and that the PCL-R should be used with caution in risk assessment with female populations.