The long term recidivism risk of young sexual offenders in England and Wales– enduring risk or redemption?

PurposeTo examine the long-term sexual recidivism risk of juvenile sex offenders in England and Wales, and to compare the risk to that of a first time sexual offense for non-convicted juveniles. Additionally, the study explores the long term sexual recidivism risk of other types of juvenile offenders, and the long term violent recidivism risk of these groups.MethodsThe England and Wales Offenders Index was used to extract birth cohort data. Life table methods were used to estimate cumulative recidivism risk, and discrete time hazard models were used to compare hazard functions.ResultsAt the five year period, 7% of juvenile sexual offenders have been reconvicted of a sexual offense; reaching 13% by the end of the 35 year follow-up. When the reconviction hazard of the juvenile sexual offenders was compared with the first sexual conviction risk of a non-convicted comparison group, the hazards converged statistically after 17 years.ConclusionsThe study has implications for the registration periods of juvenile sex offenders. Indefinite registration for some juveniles needs to be considered, and a review of registration after a conviction free period would provide more balance between the protection of the public and the rights of the offender.     

Parental Involvement in Juvenile Sex Offender Treatment: Requiring a Role as Informed Supervisor

Sex offenses, particularly those against children, have always been viewed negatively in society. A large portion of these offenses are committed by children against children. Most state legislatures focus on punitive measures when dealing with juvenile sex offenses, yet few place treatment on equal ground. Treatment has been shown to be effective in reducing the rate of recidivism of juvenile sex offenders. Juvenile sex offenders that participate in treatment have shown lower recidivism rates than adult offenders or untreated juvenile sex offenders. This Note advocates that states adopt legislation based on a successful statute in Colorado that creates a sex offender management board consisting of a multidisciplinary treatment team for juvenile sex offenders' treatment while requiring parental involvement in treatment as “informed supervisors” when the team deems it appropriate.

Key Points for the Family Court Community:
• Sex offender treatment on juveniles has been successful in reducing recidivism, as juveniles are more receptive to treatment than adults.
• Supervision and treatment of juvenile sex offenders would be more effective if parents or guardians are involved in the juvenile's sex offender treatment.
• States should adopt legislation based on the Colorado model that creates a sex offender management board and multidisciplinary team to supervise the treatment of juvenile sex offenders and requires appropriate parental involvement in the treatment as “informed supervisors”.

     

Considering specialization/versatility as an unintended collateral consequence of SORN

PurposeEmpirical studies examining specialization/versatility among offenders have long been an area of interest among criminologists. This same focus has only relatively recently been directed toward sex offenders.MethodsUtilize matched random samples of male sex offenders released from prison pre- and post-Sex Offender Registration and Notification (SORN) in the state of New Jersey with eight years of follow-up for measuring recidivism.ResultsVarious specialization thresholds and individualized diversity index (D) scores disaggregated by recidivism offense type (e.g., violent, property, drug, and sex offenses) suggest that these sex offenders were more diverse than specialized. Furthermore, Tobit regression analysis revealed that alcohol problems, being a rapist, being a prior violent offender, and recidivism offense frequency significantly predicted versatility compared with being married and being a prior property offender, which were inversely related to versatility. Finally, sex offenders who were released from prison post-SORN demonstrated a higher level of specialization than sex offenders who were released from prison pre-SORN, yet their tendency toward specialization was almost exclusively a function of drug offenses not sex offenses.ConclusionsSORN policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

The criminal career of men convicted of rape: evidence from a Norwegian national cohort

The extent to which sexual offenders are a group separate from other types of offenders has been debated for many years and investigated from different perspectives. The present study investigated similarities and differences regarding socio-economic background, criminal history and recidivism involving new crimes between rape offenders and three other groups: other sexual offenders, non-sexual violent offenders and other offenders. Data came from Norwegian population registers containing information on all crimes investigated from 1992 to 2012. The sample consisted of all persons convicted in 2002 and 2003 (N = 36,951). Background characteristics and estimated recidivism risk was described using hazard models. Results indicated that men convicted of rape (n = 142) had lower levels of education and that a higher percentage of them were on social benefits compared to the other crime groups. A large majority (79%) of rape-convicted men had previous convictions. Rape offenders were considerably more criminally active and diverse than the other crime groups. Prior criminal record, irrespective of type, increased the risk of recidivism in general. Controlling for other background characteristics did not alter this outcome. Treatment of convicted rapists needs to take into consideration that this offender group has much in common with violent offenders in general.     

Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

Identifying Three Types of Violent Offenders and Predicting Violent Recidivism While on Probation: A Classification Tree Analysis

This study employs classification tree analysis (CTA) to address whether 3 groups of violent offenders have similar or different risk factors for violent recidivism while on probation. A sample of 1344 violent offenders on probation was classified as generalized aggressors (N = 302), family only aggressors (N = 321), or nonfamily only aggressors (N = 717). The strongest predictor of violent recidivism while on probation was whether the offender was a generalized aggressor or not, with generalized aggressors more likely to be arrested for new violent crimes. Prior arrests for violent crimes predicted violent recidivism of generalized aggressors, but did not significantly predict violent recidivism of family only and nonfamily only aggressors. For generalized aggressors and family only batterers, treatment noncompliance was an important risk predictor of violent recidivism. CTA compared to logistic regression classified a higher percentage of cases into low-risk and high-risk groups, provided higher improvement in classification accuracy of violent recidivists beyond chance performance, and provided a better balance of false positives and false negatives. The implications for the risk assessment and domestic violence literature are discussed.     

Effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity‐based treatment program for violent and sexual offenders: Results of a retrospective,quasi‐experimental study

Purpose

Relapse prevention is an important goal in correctional settings. Although there is strong evidence for the effectiveness of certain treatment programs for juvenile offenders, those for adults lack such evidence. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity (RNR)‐based intervention.

Methods

A quasi‐experimental, observational study design and cox regression analysis were used to compare treated violent and sexual offenders (n = 171) with untreated offenders (n = 241).

Results

Both groups were observed for an average of 7.9 years. Recidivism rates of treated offenders (11.7%, n = 20) were similar to those of control offenders (15.8%, n = 38; p = .25). When controlling for confounding variables, the hazard of recidivism in the treatment group was 5.2% lower than that in the control group. Subdividing the treatment group resulted in lower hazard ratios for offenders still in therapy when released and offenders cancelling therapy. However, none of the group differences was statistically significant.

Conclusion

Our results show that control and RNR‐based treatment groups had comparable recidivism rates with a trend towards a positive treatment effect, especially for people in outpatient treatment. However, criminal history, age at the start of follow‐up, and actuarial risk of recidivism were significantly associated with recidivism. Future research needs to apply elaborate methodological approaches to detect robust treatment effects and consider different criteria of treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, the influence of prison climate, motivational factors, intervention quality, and factors supporting the success of outpatient treatment should be considered in future studies of larger offender samples.     

The predictive validity of criminogenic needs for male and female offenders: Comparing the relative impact of needs in predicting recidivism

Most instruments used to assess offenders' risk of recidivism were developed and validated on male samples. Use of these instruments with female offenders is, however, common practice. This use with female offenders implies the assumption that the risk of recidivism can be predicted on the basis of the same risk factors for women as for men. Yet, this implied gender-neutrality of offender risk instruments has been the topic of much debate. This study compared criminogenic needs in male and female offenders and their relevance in predicting recidivism. A large sample of male and female offenders (N = 16,239) charged with a range of index offenses was studied. Results mainly support the gender neutrality of existing offender risk and needs assessment. However, results do suggest that some criminogenic needs may indeed have a different impact on recidivism for men and women. Problems with accommodation, education and work, and relationships with friends were more strongly correlated to general recidivism in men than in women. For women, difficulties with emotional well-being had a stronger correlation with recidivism than for men. In addition, relative to all other criminogenic needs, problems with emotional well-being were more important for women than for men in predicting general as well as violent recidivism. However, because the bivariate correlation for female offenders between emotional difficulties and recidivism is weak (as it is for male offenders), the question remains whether the relative importance of emotional difficulties in predicting recidivism in women actually has clinical relevance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Factors related to recidivism for youthful offenders

Little is known about youth who were previously placed in a detention facility and what factors predict a subsequent recidivism to placement. This study of a two-county juvenile offender population (one urban and one rural) investigates what demographic, educational, mental health, substance dependence, and court-related variables predict recidivism to detention placement. Findings from logistic regression analysis indicate that seven variables significantly predict juvenile offenders’ recidivism placement, some expected and some unexpected. Predictors that made recidivism more likely include youth with a previous conduct disorder diagnosis, a self-reported previous suicide attempt, age, and number of court offenses. Conversely, predictors that made recidivism less likely include race (Caucasian), a previous attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis, and a misdemeanor conviction. These findings indicate that the use of a community-based suicide and mental health screening and referral approach may help to identify and assist these high-risk youth in receiving needed services prior to juvenile court involvement or during delinquency adjudication.     

Impressions of ineffectiveness: exploring support partners’ attitudes toward sex offender registration and notification

ABSTRACT

The present study utilized in-depth qualitative interviews with 38 people who provided formal social support to registered sex offenders to explore their attitudes toward sex offender registration and notification (SORN). Findings revealed that there were three primary areas of perceptions that these support partners had concerning SORN laws. These themes – incapable of adequately raising public awareness, unable to impact sex offender recidivism, and inappropriate for most sex offenders – suggested that such policies were ineffective strategies for sex offender management. Limitations, directions for future research, and corresponding policy implications are discussed.     

A national population based examination of the association between age-versatility trajectories and recidivism rates

Purpose

To compare theoretical explanations of the age-versatility curve including the hypotheses of: self-control theory stating that versatility is followed by specialization; taxonomic theory stating that adolescent-limited offenders are specialists and life-course offenders are versatile and orthogenetic theory stating that specialization and versatility are present in a large number of offender groups.

Methods

These explanations were tested with Israeli national population-based data on all first and subsequent juvenile offenders (n = 17,176) with 248,114 registered police contacts from 1996 to 2008.

Results

Semi-parametric group-based modeling identified two trajectory-groups that characterized the age-versatility curve of police contacts before first conviction. The trajectory-groups were labeled as versatility (n = 2,447; 14.2%), and specialization (n = 14,729; 85.8%). After controlling for 19 documented demographic, familial, and criminogenic risk factors, Cox regression showed that juvenile offenders in the versatility group were at increased risk of recidivism compared to offenders in the specialization group.

Conclusions

These results partially adhere with taxonomic theory than the remaining theories and indicate that assuming a trajectory of elevated pre-conviction versatility increases the risk of recidivism.     

Agency and outcome expectancies for crime desistance: measuring offenders' personal beliefs about change†

Abstract

While the majority of offenders eventually desist from crime, the internal psychological mechanisms hypothesized to drive the process of desistance and offender change have not been systematically measured. This study developed scales for assessing intention to change, or offenders' beliefs regarding their perceived ability to stay crime-free (agency) and expected outcomes for crime and desistance (expectancies). Incarcerated offenders (N=142) endorsed these beliefs in a way that is consistent with theories of offender change. The structure of beliefs suggests offenders with positive expectancies for desistance and negative expectancies for crime also endorse a higher sense of personal agency to desist. Outcome expectancies for desistance were unrelated to static risk variables, suggesting these measures may be complementary to risk assessment. Overall, the scales developed for this research showed high internal consistency and evidence for concurrent and construct validity. Refining the measurement methods and assessing recidivism outcome post-release should further advance this avenue of research.     

Responding to youth sexual offending: a field-based practice model that “closes the gap” on sexual recidivism among Indigenous and non-Indigenous males

Abstract

Most studies that have explored the impact of youth sexual offender treatment on recidivism have not assessed whether effectiveness varies for important subgroups. The present study evaluated the impact of treatment provided by the Griffith Youth Forensic Service (GYFS) on 104 adjudicated youth sexual offenders referred between 2006 and 2012. Sexual, violent and “other” offending outcomes were examined, based on Australian Indigenous cultural heritage and whether the youth resided in a remote community, over an average 2.5-year follow-up timeframe. The findings indicated that GYFS treatment was equally effective for Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth for preventing sexual recidivism and, for youth residing in remote and non-remote locations, for preventing sexual, violent and “other” recidivism. Treatment was less effective in preventing violent and “other” recidivism for Indigenous youth. The core components of the GYFS treatment programme therefore appear particularly well suited for reducing sexual recidivism by Indigenous offenders and those residing in remote communities.     

Follow-up of a social skills training (SST) for juvenile delinquents: effects on reoffending

Objectives

To examine (1) the long-term effects on reoffending of an individual SST for juvenile delinquents in The Netherlands and (2) whether effects differ by demographic and offense history characteristics.

Methods

The present study is a follow-up of a matched control study comparing post-treatment effects of N?=?115 juveniles receiving Tools4U, an SST with a parental component, to N?=?108 control group juveniles receiving treatment as usual (TAU). Analyses were conducted separately for delinquents and truants. Effects in terms of recidivism were assessed using official delinquency data after 6 and 12 months and 1.46 years after SST termination. Percentage of recidivists, number of re-arrests, and violent recidivism were outcome variables.

Results

Overall, 39% of the juveniles reoffended, and there were no differences between Tools4U and TAU on any of the selected recidivism outcomes. Additionally, demographic and delinquency characteristics and post-treatment effects did not moderate effectiveness.

Conclusions

Tools4U was not more effective than TAU in preventing recidivism, which may be explained by a generally low percentage of recidivists. With established treatment integrity, and a lack of well-researched effective treatment alternatives, Tools4U could still be a reasonable treatment option for adolescent onset juvenile offenders, although more research is needed to confirm this.

     

Male victims and post treatment risk assessment among adult male sex offenders

The use of actuarial instruments to predict sex offender recidivism has gained increasing credibility in recent years. This paper is one in a series examining the impact of dynamic inpatient group therapy upon the predictive influence of static risk factors on recidivism among adult sex offenders. Successful completion of the Phoenix Program (Alberta Hospital Edmonton) has been shown to ameliorate the influence of static risk factors on sexual offense recidivism. Many studies have reported that sex offenders who have male victims are more likely to re-offend than those who do not have male victims. A sample of N=513 convicted adult male sex offenders was examined regarding the relationship between the static risk factor of having male victims, subsequent re-offense, and treatment impact. Interestingly, ever having had a male victim did not significantly correlate with sex offense recidivism, for either treatment completers, non-completers, or the combined group. However, having exclusively male victims was correlated with sex offense recidivism, but only among non-completers of the program (r=.155; p=.017). Analysis of a subset of 422 child molesters yielded a similar result, in that having male victims exclusively was only associated with sex offense recidivism among treatment non-completers (r=.189, p=.009).     

Female and male sex offenders: a comparison of recidivism patterns and risk factors

Few studies have empirically validated the assertion that female and male sex offenders are vastly different. Therefore, utilizing a matched sample of 780 female and male sex offenders in New York State, the current study explored differences and similarities of recidivism patterns and risk factors for the two offender groups. Results suggested that male sex offenders were significantly more likely than female sex offenders to be rearrested for both sexual and nonsexual offenses. However, limited differences in terms of risk factors between female and male sex offenders were found.     

A community forensic intellectual disability service: Twelve year follow up of referrals,analysis of referral patterns and assessment of harm reduction

Background. Previous reports on the outcome of services for offenders with developmental disabilities have found recidivism rates of between 40% and 70% with an elevated prevalence of sex offending, fire‐raising, and aggression. Studies have also reported that female offending rates in the intellectual disability population are broadly similar to those found in mainstream populations. All reports have been conducted on in‐patient or prison samples. The present report is of a community forensic intellectual disability service. Method. Two male cohorts of sex offenders (N = 121) and other types of offenders (N = 105) and female offenders (N = 21) are studied and compared. Data is reported on characteristics of the cohort, problems identified at referral, criminal justice disposal trends, index offences at time of referral, reoffending rates of up to 12 years after index offence, patterns of referral in the first 6 and second 6 years of the study period and the extent of harm reduction. Results. There were no differences between the groups on IQ and the sex offender cohort tended to be older. Female offenders had higher rates of mental illness although rates for the male cohorts were generally high at around 32%. The sex offending cohort had fewer problems with anger and aggression and alcohol abuse but a higher level of daily living problems and relationship problems. Female offenders had high rates of all problems studied except daily living problems. Unlike certain previous studies, sex offences predominated in the sex offender cohort while other types of offences predominated in the other two cohorts. Average age was lower for more recent referrals. Among recidivists only, a considerable amount of harm reduction was recorded. Conclusions. Fire raising and offences against children are not overly represented when compared with mainstream offenders. When compared with previous studies, it appears that a community forensic intellectual disability service may have an impact in reducing the number of offences committed over a 12 year follow up period.     

Low recidivism rates of child sex offenders in a Finnish 7-year follow-up

ABSTRACT

This study examines the recidivism rates of Finnish child sex offenders convicted in 2010 (n = 361) over a follow-up period of seven years. The results indicate that while reoffending for other types of offences was common (34%), offenders had very low sexual crime recidivism rates (1%). In terms of more persistent criminal careers, less than a quarter of the offenders had both a previous criminal history and at least one subsequent offence during the follow-up period. Offenders with child sexual abuse material-related crimes reoffended more rarely than did others. Study limitations and implications for policymaking, media and rehabilitation are discussed.     

Moroccan adolescent suspect offenders in the Netherlands: ethnic differences in offender profiles

Ethnic minority youths are over-represented in the juvenile justice system in Western societies. However, research on the nature of crime committed by these youths is lacking. In the present study, offending patterns of incarcerated native Dutch adolescents and adolescents of Moroccan origin were compared. Criminal record data were used to examine the offence history of 291 incarcerated adolescents. Offender types were determined through latent class analysis. Adolescents of Moroccan origin were incarcerated more often, for more offences and at a younger age than native Dutch adolescents. A four-class model of offender types was found: property offenders, violent offenders, sexual offenders and arsonists. Property offenders were mainly Moroccan adolescents, the other offender types consisted predominantly of native Dutch adolescents. Moroccan adolescents in pre-trial arrest in the Netherlands can be characterized as early starting offenders who persist in being incarcerated for property-based crime.