Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

Abstract

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.     

Treatment programmes for adolescents who commit sexual offences: Dropout and recidivism

This paper reviews the state of research into treatment programmes for adolescent sexual offenders, focusing first on treatment dropout, then on recidivism studies. Pre-treatment variables, which may predict dropout from programmes for these adolescents, have hardly been considered, despite obvious financial and ethical implications. In relation to recidivism studies, these have been carried out quite consistently since the mid 1980s, yet, as is discussed, they still suffer from many methodological problems. The authors also note that research into treatment programmes comes almost exclusively from North America. Thus, such research needs replicating with UK samples in order to assure the applicability of any research findings to this population.     

Normal responses to sexually anatomically detailed dolls

The behaviors and verbalizations of normal, preschool age boys and girls during interactions with sexually anatomically detailed (SAD) dolls were examined. A structured, nonsuggestive interview with each child was videotaped, and five behaviors and five verbalizations were coded for each of five phases of the interview. A two-way ANOVA (gender × phase) showed that during those phases when the dolls were undressed, both boys and girls showed more sexual exploratory play, aggressive behavior which was nonsexual, and active avoidance. Across all phases, nonsexual aggression accounted for 31% of the boys' and 22% of the girls' total responses. Behavioral and verbal sexual exploratory play represented 42% of the boys' responses and 50% of the girls' responses. In contrast, sexually aggressive behavior accounted for only 1% and 2% of the boys' and girls' responses, respectively. Girls interacted with the dolls more than did boys. Additionally, girls demonstrated more affection to the dolls than did the boys, and boys displayed more anxiety with the dolls than did girls. Investigators should be cautious as to inferences about preschoolers' interactions with SAD dolls, especially interactions of a sexual or aggressive nature which do not clearly depict fondling or intercourse.     

Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

Integrating DSM-IV Factors to Predict Violence in High-Risk Psychiatric Patients

Abstract:  This study incorporated Axis-II and Axis-IV factors in DSM-IV to test the relationship between predicted risk for violence assessed in the psychiatric emergency room and actual violence during hospitalization. Psychiatric nurses lack an objective instrument to use during the acute psychiatric assessment. The retrospective study comprised consecutive psychiatric admissions ( n  = 161) in one tertiary veterans' hospital. Statistical testing for the predictive power of risk factors, relationships between variables, and violent events included nonparametric tests, factor analysis, and logistic regression. Of the 32 patients who committed violence during hospitalization, 12 had committed violence in the psychiatric emergency room. Statistical significance was shown for violent incidents and dementia, court-ordered admission, mood disorder, and for three or more risk factors. The 13-item Risk of Violence Assessment (ROVA) scale suggests validity and sensitivity for rating DSM-IV factors and psychosocial stressors to predict risk for violence during hospitalization. Replication studies are recommended to strengthen validity of the ROVA scale.