Cross-validation of the risk matrix 2000 sexual and violent scales

The predictive accuracy of the newly developed actuarial risk measures Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual/Violence (RMS, RMV) were cross validated and compared with two risk assessment measures (SVR-20 and Static-99) in a sample of sexual (n= 85) and nonsex violent (n= 46) offenders. The sexual offense reconviction rate for the sex offender group was 18% at 10 years follow-up, compared with 2% for the violent offenders. Survival analyses revealed the violent offenders were reconvicted at twice the rate compared to sexual offenders. The RMV significantly predicted violent recidivism in the sex and combined sex/violent offender groups. Although the RMS obtained marginal accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction in the sex offender group, none of the scales significantly predicted sexual reconviction. An item analysis revealed four factors not included in the risk scales that were significantly correlated with sexual and violent reconviction. Combining these factors with Static-99, RMV, and RMS increased the accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction.     

Assessing reconviction,reoffending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders

Purpose. The rate of sexual reconviction for sexual offenders is known to be low. Sexual reconviction, however, is currently the most commonly used outcome measure in sex offender treatment evaluation studies. It is expected that sex offender treatment programmes will reduce the likelihood of reconviction amongst participants. A low base rate of sexual reconviction means that any reduction in reconviction (which could be attributed to treatment) will be small and unlikely to be statistically significant. This study aimed to assess other offence‐related outcomes for sexual offenders, in addition to reconviction. Methods. The sample comprised 173 sexual offenders who had completed a community sex offender treatment programme. Follow‐up information was collected forthe sample from programme files containing multi‐agency information. Official reconviction rates were also calculated using both Home Office and police data. Results. Collecting evidence of any offence‐related sexual behaviour during this study multiplied the sample's sexual reconviction rate by a factor of 5.3. Conclusions. The results show that broadening the outcome measure under observation indicates a higher level of offence‐related sexual behaviour displayed by sexual offenders than reflected by reconviction data. These results have implications for the outcomes measured in treatment evaluation research for sexual offenders.     

The relationship between risk,deviance, treatment outcome and sexual reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers completing residential treatment for their offending

Abstract

The study investigated the relationship between static and dynamic risk and reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers who had completed a long-term residential treatment programme for their sexual behaviour problems. Results found that only High/Very High risk men as measured by a static risk assessment schedule (Risk Matrix 2000) were reconvicted for sexual offences (17% over a 2-year period, 42% over a 5-year period). Results also showed that it was generally men who were rated as a high level of dynamic risk that were reconvicted for a sexual offence (13% versus 5% over a 2-year period; 44% versus 10% over a 5-year period). The study also indicated the benefits of residential treatment for such High risk/High Deviance men in that no men who left the programme having responded to treatment had been reconvicted for sexual offences at either follow-up period.     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

Evaluation of a national prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders in England and Wales

Treatment efficacy is described for a sample of sexual offenders who had undertaken treatment in United Kingdom prisons (N = 647) and for a retrospectively selected comparison group (N = 1,910). The outcomes under observation in this study were sexual, sexual and/or violent, and general reconviction. Treatment impact was also examined in relation to offenders' risk of reconviction. The treatment group had slightly lower 2-year sexual reconviction rates than the comparison group, but these differences were not statistically significant. Significant differences were found between the treatment and comparison group for sexual and/or violent reconviction. Further analysis suggested that treatment produced a reduction in the probability of sexual and/or violent reconviction (p <.05) when other relevant variables were controlled for. General reconviction rates were consistently lower in the treatment group, but these differences were not significant.     

Pretreatment self-esteem and posttreatment sexual recidivism

The relationship between self-esteem assessed prior to treatment using the Self-Esteem Scale and sexual recidivism was explored in two samples of adult male sex offenders, 53 of whom were beginning treatment in the community and 172 of whom were beginning treatment in prison. Sexual reconviction rates were obtained for both samples using a 6-year followup for the community sample and an average follow-up of just less than 4 years for the prison sample. Lower levels of self-esteem were associated with higher sexual recidivism rates with similar trends being apparent in both samples. The linear main effect of self-esteem was significant at beyond the .01 level in a logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was used to assess the strength of this association and an area-under-the-curve coefficient of .69 was obtained. Results are discussed in terms of their meaning for the relevance of self-esteem as a predictor of recidivism and as a target for treatment.     

How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: risk,recidivism and treatment

Abstract

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-learning disabled sexual offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sexual offenders with learning disabilities. In contrast to mainstream sex offender treatment programmes, there are few evaluated community-based treatment programmes for sexual offenders with learning disabilities, and of the small number of published studies that describe treatment programmes, most are based on small samples and few have been validated empirically. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities differ from their non-disabled counterparts in several important ways, having implications for management and treatment. Due to methodological differences between studies, the prevalence of sexual offending by men with learning disabilities is not clear. However, in some studies, the sexual recidivism rate of offenders with learning disabilities is 6.8 times and 3.5 times that of non-disabled sexual offenders at 2- and 4-years’ follow-up, respectively. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities are also at greater risk of re-offending in a shorter time period. There remains an urgent need for further research into the assessment of risk and whether components from mainstream treatment programmes can be adapted to meet the needs of learning disabled sexual offenders. Approaches to working with sexual offenders with learning disabilities and programme development are discussed.     

How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

The violent reconvictions of sexual offenders

The violent reconvictions of a sample of sexual offenders discharged from prison between 1992 and 1996 (who had not been reconvicted of a sexual offence) were examined. The hypothesis was that a proportion of these violent reconvictions would have a sexual motivation. The sample consisted of 104 adult male sexual offenders for whom detailed information regarding their violent reconviction was available. The sample was categorized according to the motivation of the violent reconviction. It was found that a proportion of the violent reconvictions were sexually motivated (12%) and that some of these had resulted from an original charge for a sexual offence. Significant differences were found between the sexual motivation and violent motivation group on the number of criminal history and victim characteristic variables. It was concluded that, in the case of sexual offenders, violent convictions might mask the true motivation of the offence.     

Sexual offenders discharged from prison in England and Wales: A 21‐year reconviction study

Purpose. This study examined the reconviction rates of a cohort of sexual offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1979. A 21‐year follow‐up period was used and sexual, violent and general reconvictions assessed. Method. The sample consisted of all adult male sexual offenders discharged from prison in England and Wales during 1979 (N = 419). Criminal conviction histories were obtained for the sample from the Offenders Index and sexual, violent and general reconvictions were calculated, over a period of 21 years (1979‐2000). Results. A quarter (24.6%) of the sample received a reconviction for a sexual offence over the 21‐year follow‐up period, 21.7% received a violent reconviction and 61.8% received a general reconviction. A proportion of the sample received their first sexual reconviction 5, 10 or 15 years after being discharged from custody, thus remaining at risk of reconviction for many years. Conclusions. The findings from this study give a unique insight into the long‐term offending of discharged sexual offenders in England and Wales and have implications for the supervision of such offenders.     

Social networks of sexual offenders

Abstract

Despite the extensive research attention directed toward criminal peer groups, there has been little attention to the peer groups of sexual offenders. Sexual offenders are often considered to be loners who offend in isolation, but cases of sex crimes involving peer support are not difficult to find, e.g., child sex rings, gang rapes. To examine the role of peers in sexual offending, sexual offenders and nonsexual offenders were asked whether they knew other people who have committed sexual crimes. In comparison to the nonoffender community comparison group, the sexual offenders reported considerably more association and identification with sexual offenders. The associations also tended to be offence specific, such that child molesters knew other child molesters and rapists knew other rapists. These findings have important implications for the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders.     

The long term recidivism risk of young sexual offenders in England and Wales– enduring risk or redemption?

PurposeTo examine the long-term sexual recidivism risk of juvenile sex offenders in England and Wales, and to compare the risk to that of a first time sexual offense for non-convicted juveniles. Additionally, the study explores the long term sexual recidivism risk of other types of juvenile offenders, and the long term violent recidivism risk of these groups.MethodsThe England and Wales Offenders Index was used to extract birth cohort data. Life table methods were used to estimate cumulative recidivism risk, and discrete time hazard models were used to compare hazard functions.ResultsAt the five year period, 7% of juvenile sexual offenders have been reconvicted of a sexual offense; reaching 13% by the end of the 35 year follow-up. When the reconviction hazard of the juvenile sexual offenders was compared with the first sexual conviction risk of a non-convicted comparison group, the hazards converged statistically after 17 years.ConclusionsThe study has implications for the registration periods of juvenile sex offenders. Indefinite registration for some juveniles needs to be considered, and a review of registration after a conviction free period would provide more balance between the protection of the public and the rights of the offender.     

The effect on reconviction of an intervention for drink-driving offenders in the community

This study reports an evaluation of the Drink-Impaired Drivers program in the English and Welsh probation service. Participants were adult male offenders who had been convicted of a drink-driving offence and were serving community sentences. The 1-year drink-drive reconviction rates were compared for offenders who completed the program, offenders who started but did not complete the program, and a comparison group who were not allocated to the program. At 1-year follow-up, there was no reconviction among offenders who had completed the program. Multivariate analysis showed that the noncompleters had a significantly higher rate of reconviction than the completers and comparison group.     

Drug consumption among sexual offenders against females

This article aims to evaluate the role of drug consumption among sexual offenders against females. Three groups of participants (N = 133) comprising sexual offenders against girls, pubertal females, and women were examined with reference to history of drug and/or alcohol use, impulsivity level, sexual addiction, and recidivism risk. Sexual offenders against women were found to have significantly more difficulties with drug use, higher impulsivity level, and to be younger than the sexual offenders against girls and pubertal females. The combination of drug consumption and higher level of impulsivity may contribute to sexual aggression against adult females.     

Attachment,anger and anxiety of male sexual offenders

Abstract

Common factors underlie sexual and non-sexual aggression, and they co-occur at high rates. This study reports on whether Dutton et al.'s model of partner abuse (1994) also predicts sexual offender status. Incarcerated sexual offenders (n?=?144) and non-sexual offenders (n?=?34) completed a voluntary, anonymous survey of attachment, anger and anxiety measures. Sexual offenders produced significantly higher insecure attachment (p?=?0.001), anger (p?<?0.05) and generalized anxiety (p?<?0.01) scores than non-sexual offenders. Intended multivariate analyses were prohibited by multicollinearity between predictors. Although insecure attachment, anxiety and anger distinguish sexual from non-sexual offenders, their predictive power in a multivariate model is yet to be determined. Awareness of the co-occurrence of sexual and non-sexual violence would improve assessment and treatment approaches for professionals in both arenas.     

Optimizing risk mitigation in management of sexual offenders: a structural model

Sexual violence is an insidious and pervasive problem that insinuates itself into all aspects of contemporary society. It can neither be mitigated nor adequately controlled through current socio-legal practices. A more promising approach must embrace four integrated elements: (1) public policy, (2) primary prevention, (3) statutory management, and (3) secondary intervention. In the present paper we tackle the 3rd and 4th elements by proposing an integrated model for reducing and managing sexual violence among known sex offenders. Relying on the highly effective Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model as the core of our Sex Offender Risk Mitigation and Management Model (SORM³), we draw together evidence based practices from clinical interventions and risk assessment strategies. Developed by Andrews & Bonta (2006), RNR has a strong empirical track record of efficacy when applied to diverse samples of offenders, including sex offenders (Hanson, Bourgon, Helmus, & Hodgson, 2009). We offer a detailed structural model that seeks to provide a more seamless integration of risk assessment with management and discretionary decisions, including a primary focus on RNR-based post-release aftercare. We end with the mantra that sex offender treatment alone will never effectively mitigate sexual violence in society, since the problem is not confined to the handful of offenders who spend time in prison and are offered some limited exposure to treatment. Any truly effective model must go well beyond the management of those known to be violent and embrace a comprehensive and integrated approach that begins by recognizing the seeds of sexual violence sown by society. Such a public health paradigm places victims - not offenders - at the center, forcing society to come to address the full gamut of hazards that fuel sexual violence.     

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk: reoffending rates for rapists,child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

Abstract

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.     

An exploration of childhood victimization and family-of-origin characteristics of sexual offenders against children

A comparison of the childhood victimization experiences and family-of-origin characteristics of 33 sexual offenders against children, 66 violent offenders, and 25 nonviolent offenders participating in assessment or treatment at a forensic division of a Canadian psychiatric hospital was undertaken using a semistructured interview designed specifically for this study. Overall, 31.5% of the sample reported contact sexual abuse (i.e., oral, vaginal, or anal) by age 14. Sexual offenders against children reported significantly more sexual abuse than both violent and nonviolent offenders and were more likely to have been sexually propositioned and exposed to. Sexual offenders against children were also more likely to report physical discipline as the primary type of discipline in the home. Analyses of the variables concerning characteristics of parents, siblings, and significant others also indicated significant differences between groups. Implications of these findings on the intergenerational hypothesis are discussed as well as their relevance for treatment.     

Risk,reconviction and “sexually risky behaviour” in sex offenders

Abstract

The Challenge Project is a community assessment and treatment programme in southeast London. The Project has been evaluated extensively in relation to community failure, with consideration of static risk prediction tools and the role of key developmental variables. This current paper is an extension of earlier evaluations, considering an extended range of outcomes with a longer-term follow-up period of more than nine years at risk in the community. The official sexual reconviction rate for this sample of sex offenders (of whom 275 were at risk in the community) was 12%. A wider definition of “sexually risky behaviours” as an outcome variable, drawn from a range of police intelligence, suggested a “truer” sexual re-offending rate of 20%. Although static tools were moderately predictive of community failure, the accuracy of risk prediction was enhanced if static tools were considered in conjunction with developmental variables.