核学习与印巴核威慑的稳定性分析

在西方国际政治学界 ,自 2 0世纪 70年代后期以来 ,有关学习理论及其在外交上的应用 ,一直是热门话题之一。约瑟夫·奈提出的核学习概念即是学习理论的重要成果之一。本文借助他对核学习的论述 ,来考察印巴之间的核学习及其对印巴核威慑稳定性的作用。文章认为 ,印巴之间所经历的六年多时间的核学习 ,在一定程度上促进了印巴之间核威慑的稳定性。但是 ,印巴核学习还有很长的路要走 ,而随着核学习进程的不断深入 ,印巴之间的核威慑关系将会更加稳定。     

On New Concept of Nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear weaponry is undoubtedly the most important ＂military legacy＂ to the 21st century left over by the last century. The concept of nuclear deterrence, derived from nuclear weaponry, is one of the important elements in international security and strategic studies in the past 50 years. Although nuclear deterrence is still regarded as a major pillar for maintaining stable relations between major powers and for safeguarding national security, yet profound changes have taken place in its meaning.     

The Strategic Logic of Credit Claiming: A New Theory for Anonymous Terrorist Attacks

In theory, terrorism is a political communication strategy for groups to convey their grievances and the costs of ignoring them. In practice, though, terrorist groups take responsibility for just a small portion of their attacks. Rather than getting credit for the violence, terrorist leaders generally deny their operatives committed it. This theoretical and empirical disconnect may explain why scholars have ignored the subject of unclaimed attacks despite these being the norm. With a mixed-methods research design, our study helps to fill this lacuna by proposing and testing a new theory to help account for variation in which attacks are claimed.     

以色列打击伊朗核设施的意图及可能性评析

2008年6月,以色列举行了一次大规模军事演习,摆出了要攻击伊朗核设施的姿态。以色列早有摧毁伊朗核设施的计划,且一直在军事、外交、舆论等方面积极准备。以色列急于对伊朗动武,主要基于对伊"现实威胁"认识的深化和紧迫感的增强,有其政治、外交、军事等方面的深层次考虑。从远程攻击力、空袭经验和防护能力等方面综合来看,以军已完全具备远程打击伊核设施的军事能力。然而,以色列要想实施打伊计划,既要考虑攻击效果及其引发的严重后果,也面临来自国际社会特别是美国的制约。     

从威慑到劝阻:布什政府的战略稳定战略

文章分阶段地对布什政府的战略稳定战略进行了分析和评估。作者认为 ,布什政府的战略稳定思想是经历了一个演变的过程的。文章还着重对布什的“劝阻战略”作了分析 ,认为其形成是出于“战略环境的不稳定性”的考虑和为了“应对突发事件”的发生 ,但在具体实施中 ,布什政府尚缺乏有效的把这一战略付诸实际的操作构想。     

自杀式恐怖袭击面面观--《殉教者:伊斯兰教与自杀式袭击》介评

自杀式恐怖主义由来已久,但使用人体炸弹的密集度及致命度已经使自杀式恐怖袭击变成一种战略威胁,危及整个人类社会的安全。美国和解出版社2004年出版的由以色列国防军历史局局长肖尔·谢伊撰写的《殉教者:伊斯兰教与自杀式袭击》①一书,是当今世界就自杀式恐怖主义问题出版的第一部专著。该书聚焦分析伊斯兰人体炸弹这一特殊现象,是因为以“基地”为先锋的伊斯兰恐怖组织已将自杀式袭击变成激进伊斯兰与西方文化(包括以色列和犹太复国主义)冲突中的“一种战略武器”。2002年10-11月,从也门水域袭击法国油轮到印度尼西亚的巴厘岛爆炸再到车…     

Getting a Grip on Tailored Deterrence: The World of Conflict Management

The assumption that the United States operates from a position of strength relative to its potential enemy underpins U.S. deterrence theory. This perceived strength has emboldened American administrations to take serious tactical risks, such as the positioning of aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean during the 1973 Yom Kippur War in order to dissuade Soviet intervention in that conflict. This tacit assumption, facilitated and entrenched by overwhelming U.S.conventional military superiority in the post-Cold War era, forms the foundation both for the relatively recent developmentof tailored deterrence and for the “Flexible Deterrence Options” (FDO) that now constitute a routine aspectof the joint military planning process. This article argues that the tacit assumption of strength is too narrow and can promote the implementation of deterrent policies and actions that have the opposite effects of those intended. Deterrence, rightly understood, is a component of a conflict management strategy which implies a degree of weakness on the part of the statethat employs it. This condition must be recognized and then incorporated into policies and plans for deterrence.     

The End of the War on Terror:Strategic Implications for the U.S.

The decade-long anti-terrorism campaign has begun to wind down after the killing of Osama bin Laden and the start of U.S. troop withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq. The tenth anniversary of 9/11 is an apt point at which to analyze the losses and gains for the U.S. and predict where it can go from here.     

无人攻击机面临的国际法挑战——以美国在巴基斯坦的无人机攻击为例

过去十年间,无人机数量和战场使用快速增加。自2004年以来,美国利用无人攻击机在巴基斯坦境内定点清除基地组织和塔利班人员,在取得一定打击效果的同时,也造成了严重的平民伤亡。许多批评者认为,在巴基斯坦的无人机攻击不仅存在法律方面的问题,而且对南亚反恐局势产生了负面作用。本文试从国际法,着重是战争法的角度分析在巴无人机攻击的非法性及其影响。     

俄罗斯核力量瞄准以质制胜

今年3月,美国<外交事务>杂志载文称,美正用高精度的新式隐形技术进一步使其核武库现代化,而俄罗斯核武库却在不断萎缩,美国将有能力一次性摧毁俄所有战略核力量,使其不再对美构成威慑.一石激起千层浪,俄罗斯军界、政界人士纷纷予以回击,称这只不过是美国有些人关于核实力的浪漫主义梦想.美俄双方相互叫板使俄罗斯的核力量再次成为世人关注的焦点.