Concepts,Crises and Campaigns

SUMMARY

This article enhances understanding of congressional campaigns by exploring how political professionals define campaign crises. Existing academic literature uses binary measures of candidate scandals as a proxy for campaign crises. However, in-depth interviews with senior political consultants and other experienced campaigners demonstrate that political professionals view crises as complex, interactive events. While scandals are one kind of campaign crisis, a variety of other factors account for most crises. After categorizing the different kinds of crises political professionals describe, a typology is developed to analyze the internal, external, expected and/or unexpected dimensions of campaign crises. This article focuses on crises in U.S. House and Senate campaigns, although general lessons apply to campaigns at other levels.     

Independent Candidacies in Greece

Abstract

This article has as its main purpose to demonstrate that three main factors considered as keys to a successful political campaign remain the same around the globe. These basic factors are: (a) that campaign methods drawn from and designed in the USA can be adapted to needs of campaigns implemented in foreign countries; (b) the importance of polling; and, (c) that successful strategy planning and implementation depends on the candidate's attitude and cooperative spirit. The relevance of these factors is exhibited through a case study, the successful campaign strategy of an independent candidate for the post of the mayor in the city of Serres in Northern Greece during the 2002 Greek municipal elections.     

Is Political Consulting Going Digital?

Every four years consultants all over the world look at American presidential elections trying to unveil new techniques that can be adopted in their own countries. In 2012 databases and metrics become the cornerstone for a successful campaign and therefore, there is a need for new professionals, and for a new way of approaching the profession. The campaign for the re-election of Obama residential is a turning point not only for political communications but also for political consulting: digital revolution will open doors for a new generation of consultants not only in the United States, but also in Europe and South America.     

Understanding Campaign Strategy

SUMMARY

The role of professional political consultants in campaigns is not very well understood, at least from a theoretical perspective. As a result, we know very little about how campaign strategy is developed. This article is an attempt to think theoretically about how professional campaign operatives craft strategies for candidates. It begins with a review of previous research on consultants and campaign strategy. That work helps lay a foundation for a theory of professional campaign activity that focuses on the development of campaign strategy. I then turn to campaign professionals themselves. Based on interviews with numerous consultants and other campaign operatives, I identify common approaches to building strategy within campaigns. Finally, I explain the notion of ‘deliberate priming,’ a theoretical understanding of professionally run campaigns that emerges from the consultant interviews and previous scholarship in this field.     

Understanding varieties of populism in times of crises

Abstract

This introduction presents the conceptual and analytical framework which constitutes the background for the special issue entitled ‘Varieties of Populism in Europe in Times of Crises’. More specifically, this contribution investigates how different populist parties in the European Union have been affected by the recent economic crisis and the more long-lasting political and cultural crises. Analytically, the article disentangles the role of the Great Recession vis-à-vis other factors (such as political and party system factors, but also structural social changes or cultural opportunities) in the growing strength of populist parties in various European countries. It argues that although the economic crisis has without any doubt provided a specific ‘window of opportunity’ for the emergence of new political actors, which have capitalised on citizens’ discontent, long-lasting political factors – such as the increasing distrust toward political institutions and parties – and the more recent cultural crisis connected with migration issues have offered further fertile ground for the consolidation of populist parties in several European countries. Furthermore, as confirmed by the articles presented in the special issue, the various crises have offered differential opportunities for different types of populism – both inclusionary and exclusionary.     

Political Participation and Civic Courage: The Negative Effect of Transparency on Making Small Campaign Contributions

This study assesses whether public disclosure of campaign contributions affects citizens’ willingness to give money to candidates. In the American states, campaign finance laws require disclosure of private information for contributors at relatively low thresholds ranging from $1 to $300. The Internet has made it relatively easy to publicize such information in a way that changes the social context for political participation. Drawing on social influence theory, the analysis suggests that citizens are sensitive to divulging private information, especially those who are surrounded by people with different political views. Using experimental data from the 2011 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, it demonstrates how individuals refrain from making small campaign contributions or reduce their donations to avoid disclosing their identities. The conclusion discusses the implications of transparency laws for political participation, especially for small donors.     

Social media and political communication in the 2014 elections to the European Parliament

Social media play an increasingly important part in the communication strategies of political campaigns by reflecting information about the policy preferences and opinions of political actors and their public followers. In addition, the content of the messages provides rich information about the political issues and the framing of those issues during elections, such as whether contested issues concern Europe or rather extend pre-existing national debates. In this study, we survey the European landscape of social media using tweets originating from and referring to political actors during the 2014 European Parliament election campaign. We describe the language and national distribution of the messages, the relative volume of different types of communications, and the factors that determine the adoption and use of social media by the candidates. We also analyze the dynamics of the volume and content of the communications over the duration of the campaign with reference to both the EU integration dimension of the debate and the prominence of the most visible list-leading candidates. Our findings indicate that the lead candidates and their televised debate had a prominent influence on the volume and content of communications, and that the content and emotional tone of communications more reflects preferences along the EU dimension of political contestation rather than classic national issues relating to left-right differences.     

Online versus offline: Exploring the link between how candidates campaign and how voters cast their ballot

The Internet is playing an increasingly important role in shaping citizens’ political experience. We turn to it to consume political news and, in some countries, to even cast our ballots at parliamentary elections. Leading the way in embracing Internet voting (i-voting) is Estonia where nearly half of the ballots cast during the 2019 parliamentary election were submitted online. Using original data from the 2019 Estonian Candidate Study, this paper explores the relationship between how candidates campaign and their electoral performance. It finds greater use of both offline and online campaign tools to contribute to higher vote shares as candidates win more traditional and i-votes. These positive effects are similar in size, in terms of candidates’ overall electoral performance as well as their ability to attract different types of votes. The results show not only that individual-level campaigns continue to matter, but that online campaigns have become as important as offline campaigns for candidates, and voters’ political activity often transcends the medium through which they receive political communication.     

Securing rights in the twenty-first century: A comparison of the disability and older persons' rights conventions

This article assesses the outcome of the proposed UN Convention on the Rights of Older People (CROP) by comparing its political, economic, and social contexts with those of the 2006 Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD). The research draws on interviews with those involved in the debates, nonparticipant observation, and analysis of primary and secondary literature. The article concludes that weakness of the aging advocacy network compared to the disability network and a relatively more closed political opportunity structure negatively influence the CROP's prospects. However, many of the hurdles proponents of the CROP face are similar to those faced at the beginning of the CRPD campaign, so progress and eventual adoption are possible. By comparison with the closely related CRPD, social scientists can better understand the institutional and contextual factors that influence campaign success in the contemporary context and advocates of the CROP can better anticipate roadblocks.     

Connecting the Candidates: Consultant Networks and the Diffusion of Campaign Strategy in American Congressional Elections

Modern American political campaigns are typically conceptualized as “candidate‐centered” and treated as conditionally independent in quantitative analyses. In reality, however, these campaigns are linked by professional consulting firms, which are important agents of campaign strategy diffusion within the extended party networks of the contemporary era. To test our hypothesis that consultants disseminate campaign strategies among their clients, we analyze new data on U.S. House elections derived from Federal Election Commission records. Using spatial autoregressive models, we find that candidates who share consultants are more likely to use similar campaign strategies than we would otherwise expect, conditional on numerous explanatory variables. These results, which largely withstand an extensive series of robustness and falsification tests, suggest that consultants play a key role in diffusing strategies among congressional campaigns.     

Negative Campaigning in a Multiparty System

Research in political campaigning in Scandinavian countries is inadequate, and research in negative campaigning is entirely non‐existent. A ‘negative campaign message’ is defined as an explicit critique of the political opponent. Applying this definition to the 2005 Danish election indicates that negative campaigning comprises a very limited aspect of the political campaigning in the course of this election. The opposition tends to employ negative tactics the most in their attempts to establish their political platform. The media provided extensive coverage to the few negative campaign messages, thus presenting a biased sense of the political campaign to the general public. This biased media coverage encourages parties to ‘go negative’ in their respective campaigns in the battle for media attention.     

Political learning during the 2000 U.S. presidential election: The impact of the campaign on the gender gap in political knowledge

We examine how political campaigns influence individuals’ levels of correct, incorrect, and don’t know responses and the gender gap in political knowledge during the 2000 American presidential campaign. Using data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES), we demonstrate that as the campaign progresses the electorate provides more correct answers and fewer incorrect answers. Moreover, the political campaign significantly reduces (and possibly eliminates) the direct effect of sex on political knowledge. While the political campaign decreases the number of incorrect answers provided by both men and women, the number of correct answers provided by women increases. Our findings highlight the importance of the political campaign in determining relative levels of political knowledge for men and women.     

Campaign Learning and Vote Determinants

How campaigns shape voters' decisions is central to the study of political behavior. The basic conclusion is simple: campaigns matter. While we know who campaigns influence, there is no clear empirical evidence of why or how campaigns matter. This comes from two things. First, despite different theories about campaigns, the existing studies measure the campaign as a function of time. Second, these studies ignore the individual-level psychological mediators of these effects. We know that there are differences across time during a campaign, but we do not know how or why. In this article I suggest that campaigns work by altering voters' uncertainty about the candidates and combine aggregate and individual-level data using a hierarchical logit estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. I find that voters change how they weigh their attitudes during the campaign because of changes in their uncertainty about the candidates.     

Forming Political Culture and Marketing Strategies in a Central-European Setting

ABSTRACT

Having analyzed the different strategies used in the 1998 and 2002 parliamentary election campaigns with reference to the 1990 and 1994 campaigns, we can conclude that the Hungarian election conventions and culture are still in a state of experimentation and exploration. In contrast with American election traditions, in Hungary, not the individual (with the exception of the Alliance of Young Democrats), but the party image is what counts, though, in this respect, considerable changes could be observed during the last few years. The Hungarian political palette is much too fragmented, and this sets a barrier to the necessary desire for creating a suitable forum for the debate of the party leaders and for the declaration of party politics. At present, the party programme reaches the citizens just in implicit, hidden, often symbolic forms of messages.

While the symbols of the left-wing parties were sketchy, unskillful, too rational, and not giving much space for emotional influence, the right-wing parties gave too large of a dose of different symbols, which were emotional rather than rational. This lack of balance made the campaigns superficial, irrational, sometimes misleading, and abnormal. This feeling of abnormality was strengthened by the fact that the overdose on the part of the right wing was not limited to the campaign period, but the emotional shocking started much earlier. The state of excitement, which was spread in time, actually started in the spring of 1998, and even if there were fluctuations, the general mood of the last four years was characterised by the dug-out hatchet. The political opinion of the Orbán party was clearly expressed by their metaphors. The message of the sentences like 'it is more than change of government, less than change of regime,' 'attacking on the whole field,' 'we change the telephone directories,' etc., was unambiguous: combative four years are coming. During their campaign, 'setting up a record' was realized between the two rounds after the failure in the first round and was still going on showing the election failure, which came about in democratic circumstances (Galló Béla, 2002, 93).

One could hardly judge the effectiveness of agenda building, though some of the crucial social questions appeared as cue words and sentences in the mediated messages of parties (for example, family, health care, education, joining the European Union). Hungarian campaigning, compared to the American presidential election campaign, is colorless and rife with technical and rhetorical errors, and it is a competition without any coherence where the citizen is very often just a means of, but not the goal in, the struggle of the parties.     

How Do Interest Groups Seek Access to Committees?

Concerns that interest groups use their financial resources to distort the democratic process are long‐standing. Surprisingly, though, firms spend little money on political campaigns, and roughly 95% of publicly traded firms in the United States have never contributed to a political campaign. Do interest groups seek political access through their modest contributions, or are these contributions only a minor and forgettable part of the political process? In this article, we present comprehensive evidence that interest groups are extremely sophisticated in the way they make campaign contributions. We collect a new data set on U.S. state legislative committee assignments and legislator procedural powers from 1988 to 2014, merged with campaign finance data, in order to analyze over 440,000 candidate–committee observations across 99 legislatures. Using a series of difference‐in‐differences designs based on changes in individual legislators' positions in the legislature, we not only show that interest groups seek out committee members, but we also show that they value what we call indirect access. When a legislator gains procedural powers, interest groups reallocate considerable amounts of money to her. The results reveal how interest groups in a wide range of democratic settings seek to influence the policy process not only by seeking direct access to policy makers but by seeking indirect access to legislative procedure as well.     

Predispositions and the Political Behavior of American Economic Elites: Evidence from Technology Entrepreneurs

Economic elites regularly seek to exert political influence. But what policies do they support? Many accounts implicitly assume economic elites are homogeneous and that increases in their political power will increase inequality. We shed new light on heterogeneity in economic elites' political preferences, arguing that economic elites from an industry can share distinctive preferences due in part to sharing distinctive predispositions. Consequently, how increases in economic elites' influence affect inequality depends on which industry's elites are gaining influence and which policy issues are at stake. We demonstrate our argument with four original surveys, including the two largest political surveys of American economic elites to date: one of technology entrepreneurs—whose influence is burgeoning—and another of campaign donors. We show that technology entrepreneurs support liberal redistributive, social, and globalistic policies but conservative regulatory policies—a bundle of preferences rare among other economic elites. These differences appear to arise partly from their distinctive predispositions.     

UK Euroscepticism and the Brexit Referendum

This article shows that key to understanding the referendum outcome are factors such as a profoundly eurosceptic public, high levels of citizen uncertainty, divided mainstream political parties on the EU and lack of unity within the ‘Leave’ campaign. The Brexit referendum is more than just about domestic issues and government approval. Utilitarian concerns related to economic evaluations of EU integration coupled with support of or opposition to EU freedom of movement are very likely to influence vote choice. Those campaigns that focus on rational utilitarian arguments about the costs and benefits related to EU membership as a whole but also to EU freedom of movement are expected to swing voters.     

The Enduring Effects of Competitive Elections

Research on U.S. congressional elections has placed great emphasis on the role of competitiveness, which is associated with high levels of campaign spending, media coverage, and interest group and party involvement. Competitive campaigns have been found to increase citizens' participation, engagement and learning. However, little is known about whether the effects of competitive campaigns have enduring consequences for citizens' attitudes and behavior. Analyzing a survey of citizens conducted one year after the 2006 congressional elections that includes an oversample of respondents from competitive House races, we examine whether exposure to a competitive House campaign affects voters' political knowledge and political interest as well as their consumption of political news. We find that competitive elections have positive effects that endure for at least a year beyond the campaign season, reinforcing the idea that political competition plays a robust role in American representative democracy.     

Mainstreaming populist discourse: the race-conscious legacy of neo-populist parties in Australia and Italy

Curran examines the political legacy of far-right neo-populist parties in Australia and Italy. She argues that assessments of their ‘success’ need to extend beyond the electoral decline or organizational implosion of the parties themselves. An important measure of their impact is the influence they have exerted on mainstream political discourse and styles of communication. That they have been successful in having such an impact is well illustrated in the politically expedient adoption of race-conscious, anti-immigration and anti-asylum policies in Australia and Italy. Curran examines the influence of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party and Umberto Bossi’s Lega Nord (Northern League) on the mainstreaming of populist discourse in these two countries. She focuses on some of the populist themes and styles embraced by the Australian political leader John Howard and his Italian counterpart Silvio Berlusconi, and she concludes that, regardless of their political fragility or outright demise, these far-right neo-populist parties have been successful in injecting populist themes and prejudices into the mainstream political discourse in their respective countries.     

Mobilizing different types of voters: The influence of campaign intensity on turnout in direct democratic votes

A well-established body of literature links voter turnout to political campaigns. In this view, intensive campaigns increase the perceived salience of a decision, fostering information-seeking and, ultimately, turnout. The existing literature has also advanced our understanding of how direct democratic institutions influence turnout in elections. Yet we still know little about whether and to what extent campaign efforts influence voter turnout in direct democratic votes, and we know even less about who is mobilized. We claim that campaign intensity has differentiated effects across voters, depending on voters’ participation profile. To test this claim we use a rich dataset of official turnout data covering more than 40 direct democratic votes in Switzerland. The results support our claim. While intensive political campaigns overall foster citizens to turn out to vote, they do so especially for “selective” (or “intermittent”) voters, who need to decide anew at each ballot whether to turn out or not. Interestingly, we also find that frequent abstainers are not immune from campaign effects, and get almost as strongly mobilized as selective voters in highly intensive campaigns.