The Current Chaos in the Western World:A Profound Reflection

Since the beginning of 2016,American presidential campaigning took on a strident tone.The Trump ascendancy among right wing republicans,and the rise of Sanders to the left of the democrats,are seen as grassroots movements against status quo politics.France,Europe's standing bearer of peace,freedom and equality,suffered ruthless and severe terrorist attacks in Paris and Nice which resulted in bloodshed,horror and sorrow.After quite a long time,the UK ended its swaying stance towards the EU by referendum to exit the EU,bringing a surprise ending to its 43 years of membership.     

变中生乱,乱中求变——2010国际战略形势评析

2010年的世界乱象丛生,乱中生变,乱中求变,深刻反映了21世纪国际战略形势的基本变化趋势。本文根据变与乱相生相克的战略逻辑,通过国际格局与大国关系变化、亚太崛起和国际地缘政治变化、朝鲜半岛乱局、军事安全形势、世界经济变局、中国外交与战略等多种维度,试图对2010年国际战略形势的特点及其变化趋向进行相对全方位的总体认识、分析。文章认为,2010年国际战略形势虽然乱象丛生,但是,变生乱,乱生变,乱因而不一定是坏事。乱与变相生相克正是21世纪国际战略形势的基本特征和主要趋势。     

Chaos in 2014: The Journey Continues

Will 2014 be remembered as a chaotic year a decade or two in the future?Not necessarily so.Looking back at the post-Cold War years,only two major developments stand out:the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the rise of the emerging countries such as China.They both mark a shift in global power distribution,from major powers to smaller stakeholders,from the Atlantic to the Pacific,and from the developed to the developing worlds.From this perspective,nothing that extraordinary happened in 2014.purchasing power parity(PPP).Trans-Pacific rivalry also escalated in the first half of the year,particularly in the East China Sea and the South     

国际体系转型以及中国战略机遇期的延续

起始于美国并且迅速蔓延至全球的金融危机导致了二战结束以来最严重的经济衰退,对国际体系产生了重大影响,也使得冷战以后世界形势的发展取向更加明显.G20峰会的召开虽然是为了应对当下席卷全球的经济问题,但无论从参与方还是从议程设置和议事方式上说,都显示出新的迹象,从某种意义上反映了国际体系转型的一些特点.     

Interdependent and Domestic Foundations of Policy Change: The Diffusion of Pension Privatization Around the World

In the last two decades, striking correlations in the location and timing of structural pension reforms have raised important questions about the kind of information used by policy makers in their decisions to adopt such measures. This study tests the hypothesis that the adoption of pension privatization is shaped systematically by an interdependent logic, wherein the decision to privatize pensions in one country is systematically linked to corresponding decisions made by governments in relevant peer nations. Duration analysis with time-varying covariates of data from 59 countries between 1980 and 1999 reveals that the decision to adopt a private pension reform in one country increases systematically as the proportion of peer nations that have adopted corresponding measures rises. Importantly, the effect of this peer dynamic varies across groups of nations, with the most powerful impact of peer decisions being found among Eastern European and Central Asian nations. Peer dynamics likewise contribute powerfully to the adoption of private pension reforms in Latin America, but do not significantly shape the hazard of privatization among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member nations. Even controlling for diffusion mechanisms, the analysis shows that pension reform decisions remain subject to domestic political and economic considerations, including demographic pressures, financial costs and incentives to reform, and constraints delimited by the political institutions in each nation.     

利比亚乱局中的部落因素

今年以来,中东北非多国发生动乱。这场发生在多个国家、表象类似的动乱看似是突尼斯“茉莉花革命”引发的连锁反应。实则各国的动乱程度不同,性质各异。其中,发生在利比亚的动乱是持续时间最长、程度最激烈、涉及国家和国际组织最多、影响最深远。     

Pooling Wisdom of the World for World Expo 2010

Shanghai World Expo gathering engrossing interaction to explore symphony as the main 2010 will be a grand man＇s urban life, an with innovation and melody, and a splendid dialogue among human civilizations. At present, preparation work for Expo 2010 is well under way. Over 230 countries and international organizations have confirmed their participation, of which almost 200 have signed the participation contract. Joint efforts made by the Expo family members have created a new record in the number of Expo participants. The framework of China Pavilion, Theme Pavilion, the Expo Exhibition Center, the Performance Center and the Expo Axis has almost been completed,     

World Conservation Congress 2008: Climate Change,Islands, and In-situ Conservation

The author participated in the IUCN World Conservation Congress (5–14 October 2008), both the Forum events and pre-selected Learning Sessions, including forest carbon inventory, and multilateral negotiations. The sessions highlighted the importance of multidisciplinary approaches and of treating indigenous knowledge as seriously as rigorous hard science. The gravity of climate change was fully recognised. Success stories gave important encouragement and knowledge-capital for conservation, while case studies showed that protected areas should be made as diverse and harmonious as the human landscape that they are affecting.     

The World in 2014:Peace and Development

The year 2014 was the centennial of World War I,and it was marked by chaos.Wild predictions that a new Cold War was coming,or even World War III were proved to be wholly wrong.The Cold War was a period marked by two military powers armed with nuclear and conventional weapons and engaged in an arms race.Their antagonistic ideologies were crossed swords.Today,the U.S.and Europe,are maybe on the same chorus,but they are singing different tunes,while Russia is a lonely soloist.More importantly,the U.S.,the only country that could really reignite汪Cold War,has shown no signs that it intends to do so.Ironically,U.S.President Barack Obama described Russia as a regional power,a thinly-veiled sarcasm,seeming to imply that Moscow is no longer     

世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

世界格局变化的启示

两极格局解体后,国际关系重新分化组合。美国的单极世界战略同其他国家维护独立、和平与谋求发展的目标发生碰撞,是当前世界的主要矛盾。美国的战略扩张取得一些进展,但无法阻挡多极化的历史潮流。冷战后,国际局势在动荡－缓和－再动荡的曲折发展中前进。大国关系的重点是综合国力竞赛。美国新政府正重新评估形势,进行战略调整。右翼势力主张将战略重心转向亚太。中美关系面临新的考验。我们寄希望于中美保持战略对话,扩大利益汇合点,减少摩擦和分歧,但也应对我国战略安全环境走向更加严峻做好准备。     

"和谐世界":国际秩序的新构想和新范式

“和谐世界”国际秩序观的提出是国际秩序理论发展中的一次重要理论创新。它由安全、发展、和谐三个关键概念所组成,关注三个层次不断递进的目标,即通过共同安全实现持久和平稳定,创设国际秩序有序运行的基本条件;通过共同发展和共同繁荣既满足世界各国的发展利益需求,又促进全球安全威胁根源的消除,为国际秩序的有序运行提供保障;通过开放包容实现不同文明和谐相处,共同进步,实现国际秩序的公正与合理。“和谐世界”所提出的目标和新观念,以及解决国际秩序建设中安全困境问题、国际秩序的持久和平稳定问题以及国际秩序的公正与合理问题等三大难题的思路,已经使它超越了西方国际秩序理论,成为一种崭新的国际秩序构想和范式。     

The World in 2014: Six Major Developments

We can predict what will happen in 2015 from six global developments that took place last year.The Ukraine crisis,a typical geopolitical conflict,plunged U.S.-Russian relations to their lowest ebb since the end of the Cold War.After Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Crimea’s return to the motherland on March 18,an opinion piece in The New York Times said:Our new era is one defined by ideological clashes,nationalistic resurgence and territorial occupation~an era in some ways similar to the tragic periods of confrontation in 20th-century Europe.Falling oil prices reflected that market forces were at work,geopolitics notwithstanding.Huge investments into the oil/gas industry     

The World and Me

At the invitation of Mr. Nakata Sen, Chief Director of the Japanese special non-profit organization The World, CAFIU’s Secretary- General Ni Jian and I visited Japan and attended the 10 th annual conference of The World from 20 th to 24 th August. It was my third visit to     

The EU and China in a Polycentric World:The Case of Afghanistan

A Polycentric Post-Hegemonic World The world is becoming polycentric.The unipolar moment is fading,as the U.S.President himself has recognized.The relative decline of the U.S.and the EU is not the consequence of the current financial crisis but of the rise of China,India and Brazil and of a number of middle powers.As the EUISS ESPAS Report on Global Trends 2030 predicts,there will be a plurality of actors,and no single world power will play a hegemonic role.Polycentrism will be accompanied by an economic power shift toward Asia,where over half of the world's population will be concentrated by 2030.     

大国崛起与世界体系变革——世界体系理论的视角

以沃勒斯坦和弗兰克为代表的世界体系论为大国崛起提供了一个极有价值的解释框架.世界体系论认为,中国崛起有其正当性.直到两个世纪前中国才失去在世界经济中的支配地位,当代中国崛起不过是历史上中国经济文化优势的复兴.理性地看,中国尚处于从世界体系的半边缘国家向中心国家位移的阶段,并且仍然深受世界体系中不平等劳动分工和不平等交换体系的制约,不可能对美国及西方世界构成威胁.同时,中国是在世界体系的社会化中崛起的,因而崛起后的中国不可能改变现存世界体系的性质、结构及其运行规律.因此,当前大国崛起的正当性还在于显著地增强世界多极化与国际关系民主化的力量.     

战后日本人饮食消费方式的变化

一、前言 饮食文化是代表饮食和人类之间的关系，并丰富人类饮食生活的一种智慧宝库。饮食是一种看似平常又极为重要的事情，“它是人类生存和改造身体素质的首要物质基础，也是社会发展的前提”。“饮食文化是人类有关饮食实践的多方面经济社会生活的各种表现形式的总和，它是跨越物质文化和精神文化的许多领域，又具有自己独特内涵和外延，是组成网络又具有独特神韵的一种文化体系”。