Foreign policy in the Muslim world: A dialogue between state and society

In the wake of the demise of communism and the advent of the 1990–1991 Gulf War, there is concern among some Western elites about a possible Islamic challenge to the prevailing international order. This paper explores the validity of that concern by looking at patterns of interaction and the notion of foreign‐policy change in four countries in the Muslim world—Iran, Egypt, Algeria, and Indonesia, as well as some developments in the larger Muslim world. Juxtaposing social change on foreign policy, the article postulates that economic realism is the definitive force in the international relations of these states; “militant Islam” is more a tool of radical diplomacy than a manifestation of transnationalism; and ties between states in the Muslim world display a regional regime‐style orientation. Domestic Islamization is found to be a force, which, overall, is contributing to accountability and, therefore, rationalization in the foreign‐policy realm.     

后西方世界秩序下的核武器与核威慑

全球国际社会正处于一个关键的变化时期。长期以来占主导地位的西方秩序在如下几个方面面临包围:霸权分散、全球资本主义危机日益加重、全球共同面临恐怖主义、大规模移民以及环境变化等带来的各种威胁。英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统这些事件表明,作为世界秩序核心的英语世界,已失去其主导力量。目前的发展格局将朝着多元化的后西方世界秩序发展。在此秩序下,没有超级大国,只有大国,并且这些大国大多比较自我封闭,因此,并不存在真正意义上的争夺全球霸权的现象。文化差异将比意识形态差异更为重要。文章首先将这一秩序的轮廓做一大致勾勒,然后探讨这一秩序对未来几十年核武器与核威慑所要扮演的角色来说将意味着什么。最为关注的着眼点是,全球格局从全球层面向区域层面的转变以及复杂的核扩散与核威慑态势。     

Revolution of the unemployed

The population problem cannot be solved by a few heads of state sitting round a table and reaching an agreement, is not susceptible to short-term action, and cannot be solved by some new miracle of science and technology. There are no shortcuts, no easy answers, and no undiscovered escape routes to the problem of population. This crisis will change the face of the world and change it in the lifetime of most persons alive today. When and how changes will occur is uncertain. The only certainty is change itself. The injustices are mounting: trade structures which do not allow half the world to earn a decent living; consumption patterns which pollute and strain the world's resources far more than population growth; economic systems which benefit the few at the expense of the many; and political forces which deny people power over their own lives. All this will change as the deprived majority of the world increases in numbers and in awareness and organized power. It is a fair assumption that unemployment will provide the flashpoint. Unemployment and underemployment in the 3rd world are hovering between 25-30% and are still rising. In the next 10 years over 300 millions people will be added to the world's labor force and an estimated 230 million of them will be school leavers in the developing world. Unemployment is no longer confined to the older, illiterate, rural dwellers who are "hidden away" and cared for by their extended families or villae communities. Increasingly the unemployed are young, educated city dwellers. They know more about the world and expect more from it. These facts suggest radical changes. The only choice is to work and plan for that change to be reasoned and rapid. Otherwise, it will be a bloody and sudden change. Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable.     

2010年国际战略与安全形势回顾

2010年，金融经济危机效应在政治、经济和社会多方面进一步发酵，推动世界大发展、大变革、大调整深化，逐步迈入“后危机时代”。“中国因素”愈加突出，和平发展的战略环境更加敏感复杂。     

Public and private: change and continuity in economy through two meta-fields in society

The current literature on comparative political economy does not seem to consider unifying under a single theoretical framework the analysis of continuity and change in different economic systems. On the one hand, major comparative works derive their theoretical propositions from dynamics in the Western world. On the other, studies that are focused on national trajectories of development are concentrated in cross-national comparisons involving countries with similar characteristics in what concerns strategies of development. In this paper, I argue that all fields in the world of social action are pervaded by two major fields, hereby dubbed ‘meta-fields’: public and private. Both are in a ‘double movement’ to shape each other's boundaries through the definition of social and property rights that regulate access to human capabilities and capital. Public and private are meta-fields because they constrain human action and the organization of social configurations on state and non-state levels.     

Climate Change and the Role of China

Action to combat climate change is becoming ever more essential,especially as nations look toward their futures in an increasingly competitive world.Countries vie for obtaining the largest reduction in carbon emissions while the need for cooperation is also taking on ever-greater urgency.China has so far actively,solidly and diligently demonstrated its responsible image towards climate change,a point which should be understood and recognized by the developed world.     

Surprise Moves in Negotiation

In a game-theoretic model of a negotiation, a surprise move always has the potential to create uncertainty. This uncertainty can be beneficial to just the player making the move, or it can be beneficial to all the players involved. Moreover, there are situations in which a surprise move can change the very nature of the interactions. In particular, if the interactions follow specified procedures, the surprise move can reduce the effect of the procedures on the outcome. By showing that these results hold in the precisely defined world of game theory, it is argued that they are applicable in the more ambiguous world of real negotiations. At a broader level, the game-theoretic results imply that there is a sense in which the context can never be known for sure. The results also imply that the uncertainty created by surprise moves can be strategically useful.     

Learning to Be Postmodern in an All Too Modern World: “Whatever Action” in International Climate Change Imaginaries

Recent contributions in International Relations focus either on a shift from modernity towards postmodernity in approaches to address climate change, or underline the permanencies and continuities of modern thought and power hierarchies. In contrast, we suggest that there is a contradictory simultaneity of both of these framings through which the world is continuously decomposed and recomposed. Today climate change programmes seem to be driven by a key contradiction, which lies at the heart of the Anthropocene: the environment is ours to manipulate and yet is out of reach. Based on this framing, and thinking through Timothy Morton and Bruno Latour’s writings on political ecology, we argue that “whatever action” best captures current policy thinking: multiple initiatives are taken without a telos; rather they are designed to avoid that opportunities for adaptation and climate mitigation are foreclosed.     

The Rise of the Social Development Model: Institutional Construction of International Technology Organizations, 1856–1993

This study identifies an important thematic change among international technology organizations (ITOs). Within the general expansion of the ITO population, the social development model has risen rapidly over time in comparison with the industrial and professional models. Rationalistic political theories, which tend to treat international organizations as negotiated arrangements among nation-states or interest groups, locate organizational changes in the power capabilities and interest calculation of such actors. These theories do not explain this historical change among ITOs. Building upon the constructivist approach and sociology's institutionalism, this study emphasizes ITOs as constructed by world cultural norms. I propose that the rise of a liberal and rationalized world regime of development in the post–World War II era affected the popularity of different ITO models by supplying a new norm for technology. Data were collected for the population of ITOs established between 1856 and 1993, and the impact of the main forces on the rise of the social development model was formally tested with event-history methods. The study demonstrates the importance of world cultural norms in shaping the evolving field of ITOs.     

胁迫式外交:战略竞争时代美国对外战略的转型

以特朗普政府2017年《国家安全战略报告》和2018年《国防战略报告》为标志,世界进入美国启动的战略竞争新时期,地缘政治争夺和大国竞争再度成为世界政治的突出主题。美国重振和维护世界主导地位的目标未变,但"胁迫式外交"成为特朗普政府推行对外战略的常态,美国对外行为出现了冷战结束以来最为显著的变化,表现为重新激活战略军事威慑以压制战略军事竞争对手、以贸易热战和科技冷战方式打压战略经济竞争对手、以政治勒索方式逼盟友承担义务、以极限施压方式压制地区敌对国家、以退群和搅局方式阻挠多边外交。美国推行胁迫式外交与特朗普个人的执政风格相关,但根本性的原因是国际政治权力结构的重大变化和战略竞争时代的来临,推动美国对外权力输出发生了转型性变化。这也意味着美国对外权力输出方式正在发生从软实力向硬实力、从依赖制度优势向依赖实力优势的巨大偏转。美国所谓国际"领导力"正加速蜕变为维护美国特权的"胁迫力",美国权力输出的这种变化可能代表着未来美国外交发展的一种长期趋势。     

Nuclear Proliferation in the Post-Cold War Era

Nuclear weapons look set to stay with us, fulfilling as they do a different role from that of conventional weapons, in terms of their deadly potential for massive destruction. Indeed, nuclear weapons served as a stabilizing force during the hostile Cold War period. Sine the end of the Cold War, our world has undergone huge changes. Relative peace continues to be maintained on the basis of the logic of a ＂balance of terror＂, but the nuclear cloud hanging over human beings has never quite left us. Both the U.S. and Russia retain large nuclear arsenals, and a significant number of state and non-state actors on the stage of world politics continue to show interest in this lethal weapon. So-called ＂nuclear crises＂ flare up and test the wodd＇s nerves every now and again, and with some major nuclear powers continuing to make adjustments to their nuclear policies, the world nuclear proliferation position appears to be undergoing significant and profound change and transformation. In this article the author intends to help readers to become acquainted with the nuclear status quo as well as the characteristics of post-Cold War nuclear proliferation. The author also aims to help readers to understand the causes of the post-Cold War nuclear proliferation.     

韩国金融账户自由化的经济效应研究

伴随着国际金融一体化的发展,金融账户自由化成为大势所趋。考察韩国金融账户自由化政策的演变历程以及金融账户的变动情况,可以对其金融账户自由化的经济效应及机制进行实证研究。     

信息革命与经济全球化

信息革命是指人类在认识世界的过程中 ,感知、反映、接收、传递、交流、综合分析和加工处理信息的工具与手段的革命性变革。人类文明的发展始终伴随着对信息获取、存储和运用能力的进步 ,2 0世纪中期以来 ,信息革命开始在全球蓬勃发展。信息革命是继工业化动力革命之后的人类新智能革命 ,它使人类社会面貌正在发生深刻的变化。在信息革命有力地推动下 ,世界进入了全球化迅猛发展、民族国家间联系密切、相互依存程度不断提高的新时代。在信息化新时代 ,认真研究和探讨信息革命与经济全球化的相互关系问题具有重要的理论与现实意义。     

浅析中印气候变化合作

在全球环境变化日趋严峻的今天，气候变化问题已经成为世界政治中最具挑战性的议题之一，世界各国合作应对气候变化的挑战成为必然的选择。中印两国由于在气候变化政策方面原则和立场接近而开始进行气候变化合作。中印两国就气候变化问题进行合作，既有助于推动国际气候变化谈判取得实质性成果，也有助于双边关系的长远发展和新的国际治理与全球权力中心的形成。     

From Population Control to Reproductive Rights: Understanding Normative Change in Global Population Policy (1965–1994)

This article examines the process of normative change and nascent norm emergence in areas of global policy making through the convening of UN global conferences. Specifically, the article is a case study of how the norms and discourse undergirding and legitimising global population policy have changed from population control to reproductive rights through the passing decades. The United Nations, as a main site of discursive and normative contestation, provides opportunities for global social movements to lodge oppositional claims against states and other actors in world politics. A constructivist approach is used to identify five processes integral to understanding mutually constitutive and fluid agent-structure processes of normative change and nascent norm emergence in global population policy. This research contributes to the extant constructivist literature on the process of norm emergence by suggesting one processual model that can illuminate other cases of norm formation, maintenance, and change regarding other transnational issues.     

Democratization and Women's Legislative Representation in Sub-Saharan Africa

The recent transition toward democracy in the third world and the former communist states has reopened the debate on the effect of democratization on women's parliamentary representation. While some researchers envisioned unprecedented opportunities for women's entry into national parliaments, others showed that democratization actually decreased women's representation in parliaments. Although the bulk of literature praises the recent political change toward democracy in Africa and analyses the internal and the external factors of this change, very little attention has been given to the effect of this change on women, in specific, women's legislative representation. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to examine the effect of the recent democratization on women's legislative representation in Africa. Cases are sub-Saharan African countries that have experienced multiparty legislative elections between 1990 and 1999. The study found that democratization overall has decreased women's representation in parliament. The countries that have proportional representation systems tend to have higher women's representation in parliament than the countries with majority or plurality systems. Gender quotas appear to improve women's legislative representation, but are practiced only by a small number of countries.     

世界政治“平靖进程”的技术变迁支撑

二战后,世界政治经历了"平靖进程",具体体现为:"大国罕有战事""国家罕有消亡"。本文融合国际政治经济学与国际安全研究,展示二战后的技术变迁改变了大国的"意愿"与"能力",支撑了世界政治新变化。在马尔萨斯时代,由于技术水平低下,生存物资稀缺,生存保障匮乏,人类面临持续的安全难题。二战后,技术发展影响了当代大国的"意愿"与"能力",让世界政治呈现新变化。技术变迁给大国提供了更为丰富的选择,让大国使用武力征服的意愿降低;同时,随着技术变迁,尤其是在"核革命"后,大国确保自身安全的能力更强,使得"大国罕有战事"。得益于技术变迁,大国利益半径扩大,即便距离遥远地域的变化也与自身息息相关,大国保障遥远海外利益的意愿提升;同时,技术变迁扩大了大国的权力投射,让世界各国,尤其是大国保障体系稳定的能力更强,致使"国家罕见消亡"。随着技术变迁,世界政治已呈现出很多与传统智慧不同的方面,孕育国际交往的新理念。     

Bringing the outsiders in: an interactionist perspective on deviance and normative change in international politics

Abstract

In this article, we draw on insights from the interactionist perspective in sociology and international relations (IR) norm contestation literature to explore the relationship between deviance and normative change in international politics. In IR, this is still largely unexplored territory: we already know a great deal about how norms change, yet we know much less about the actual role norm violations play in this process. In order to address this gap, we conceptualize three types of normative contestation and affirmation that take place in connection with deviance (re)construction: (1) applicatory contestation and affirmation, reconstructing the meanings of international norms; (2) justificatory contestation and affirmation, challenging and reaffirming the legitimacy of international norms; and (3) hierarchical contestation and affirmation, contesting and reaffirming the relative value and importance of international norms. We discuss how, as a consequence of these dynamics, deviance-making produces both stability and change in the normative structure of world politics.     

The Major Power Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics in the Transition of International Order

The early 21st century finds great change in international order.China's foreign relations have entered a new phase where its driving force is rapidly rising for the emerging countries and new global economic governance mechanism is gradually established.To follow the trend of the times,China has actively participated in global economic governance and supply of public goods.China' s foreign relations present a new vision,idea and strategy under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.It is a new starting point for China to further integrate itself into the world and open itself wider to the world.China takes an active part to participate in global governance and plays an important role in the issues of economic integration,environmental governance,climate change,nuclear nonproliferation,energy crisis,internet security and anti-terrorism,especially anti-terrorism.This article explains the performance of international relations in current transition order and tries to tackle prior (and in some ways more intractable) issues and to analyze the internal logics and external environment of impact of multi-polarization on China's major power diplomacy with its characteristics in the transition of International order.     

International Strategy and Security Environment Development Trends over the Next 5 to 10 Years

The world will continue to change radically over the next five to ten years. The current one superpower and many powers order will change to one of multi-polarity. Relations between major powers will take on a new shape. The rate of change will start to accelerate but these changes will continue to be peaceful and incremental. Competition will intensify over who will set the rules. Chaos,disorder,uncertainty and even turmoil will grow more apparent in the international security situation. This will make nat...