The Rise of Great Powers and War

War and peace is a permanent theme in the discussion of international relations theory.……     

Ballotbox Diplomacy: The War Powers Resolutiona and the Use of Force

The strategic problem for the United States during the lead-up to a potential military clash is maintaining the executive's ability to respond internationally while not abrogating legislative oversight of the use of force. In light of this dilemma, congressional leaders have an incentive to engage in "stage management": establishing short-term contracts with the executive that shift political risk during conflict onto the president while maintaining a final check on presidential policy.
The War Powers Resolution is a useful test of the stage management model and an alternative model that derides congressional involvement in the use of force as nothing more than symbolic politics. We find that the War Powers Resolution changed the process by which Congress opposes the presidential use of force, easing congressional collective-action problems and minimizing the electoral repercussions associated with said confrontation. Moreover, presidents have used force differently since the resolution's passage. By changing both process and outcomes, the War Powers Resolution fulfills all the requirements of a stage management contract.     

Influence Without Power: Middle Powers and Arms Control Diplomacy During the Cold War

This article examines the evolution of middle power diplomacy on arms control during the Cold War. It argues that despite several attempts to influence major arms control negotiations, the structural constraints imposed by strict bipolarity—particularly during the early stages of the Cold War—limited the room for diplomatic manoeuvre by the small and medium-sized states. Factors such as the geographical voting groups within the United Nations system and the self-imposed discipline within traditional alliance structures typically restricted middle power initiatives on the important questions of international security such as arms control. Nonetheless, a number of efforts were made by leading middle powers such as Australia and Canada to progress the cause of arms control and significant policy ideas were at least canvassed during this time. The historical evidence shows that the middle powers were not innocent bystanders in the Cold War arms control debates, but whatever influence they had was ultimately subordinate to the overwhelming structural power of Washington and Moscow.     

伊拉克战争后中亚地区的战略局势与大国关系

苏联解体后,美国乘中亚的“权力真空”之际,开始染指中亚地区。阿富汗战争后中亚地区的国际战略地位突现,美国实现在中亚地区驻军的目标,美俄战略利益格局发生变化;上海合作组织的建立,使中国在中亚地区的影响加大;北约东扩,中亚地区国家成为北约和平伙伴,美国在中亚地区的影响更大。尽管中亚地区存在大国的竞争,出现各种国际力量与组织并存的局面,但是在反恐问题上,各国只有合作与协商,才能取得共赢,才能促进中亚的和平与发展。     

探索、创新、致用——读《冷战后大国与海湾》

近读唐宝才研究员的新著《冷战后大国与海湾》(当代世界出版社2002年6月出版)以后，深感这是一部有新视角、新见解和颇具功力的学术专著。其中有以下三点，特别值得向读者介绍。 一是探索性。研究冷战后世界大国对海湾地区的政策及其……     

地区次大国缘何接受地区大国的领导

在地区权力结构不平衡的背景下,地区大国争取地区领导权的研究往往认为体系内的中小国家在功能上具有同质性,从而忽略了地区次大国的特殊性。事实上,地区次大国与地区小国的行为逻辑出发点不同,且对是否接受地区大国领导的态度表现存在差异。从地区等级的视角出发,可对全球各地区等级体系进行划分,并将主导地区等级体系变迁的内生动力归为地区权威的演化。基于此,本文依托地区权威二重性建立了以地区权威类型为核心解释变量的分析框架,呈现出地区次大国应对地区领导的因果机制。研究表明:地区次大国的态度取向与行为选择受到地区权威支配性(双边实力位差)与正当性(大国威胁程度、地区制度化水平和战略文化趋同性)的影响。在关系型权威下,地区次大国倾向于选择追随或承认战略;而在象征型权威下,地区次大国对地区大国易于表现为抵触或制衡行为。文章结合类型化与统计分析等方法对符合当今地区等级体系的总体经验事实进行跨地区全样本案例分析,结果验证了研究假设。充分把握地区等级体系中的次大国与大国互动规律对于地区大国领导力的平稳提升和地区战略稳定具有重要意义。     

Middle Powers and the Behavioural Model

The behavioural model comprises a major theoretical tradition in the field of middle powers since it identifies the distinct behavioural patterns in the diplomacy of these states. Its relevance, however, has been questioned since it continues to rely on older definitions of middle power behaviour and places emphasis on diplomatic preferences rather than influence. To strengthen the relevance of the behavioural model, this article proposes an additional distinctive category that prioritises ideational influence and entrepreneurial effectiveness as key prerequisites for identifying middle powers. The article examines the cases of Brazil and South Africa to argue that states classified as middle powers must not only pursue the diplomatic preferences and strategies that comprise middle power internationalism, but also display the capacity to advance and secure their preferred outcomes at the international level.     

Bridging the Realist/Constructivist Divide: The Case of the Counterrevolution in Soviet Foreign Policy at the End of the Cold War

The surprising end of the Cold War has led to a debate within international relations (IR) theory. Constructivists have argued that the end of the Cold War is best explained in terms of ideas and agency—specifically Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev's new thinking. A few realists have countered that Soviet material decline was "endogenous" to the new ideas. Can these two theoretical perspectives be reconciled with respect to this case? They can be partially integrated with a path-dependent strategy that places an emphasis on "institutions." Nevertheless, explaining the end of the Cold War largely requires a theory of Soviet foreign policy and its relation to the state. As a former or ossified revolutionary state, Soviet foreign policy for at least several years was largely based on the principle of externalization: outside threats were used to rationalize radical centralization, repression, and the dominance of the Party. In using the USSR's institutionalized legacy as a revolutionary state, Gorbachev acted as a counterrevolutionary and reversed this process with his revolution in foreign policy. In creating a new peaceful international order, he sought—through the "second image reversed"—to promote radical decentralization, liberalization, and the emergence of a new coalition. The case examines how Gorbachev's domestic goals drove his foreign policy from 1985 to 1991.     

The Great Powers and Regional Conflicts: Eastern Europe and the Balkans from the Post–Napoleonic Era to the Post–Cold War Era

The objective of this article is to provide an analytical framework for addressing the sources of great power regional involvement and its effects on regional conflicts. The thesis of the article is that variations in the degree of intensity of conflicts and the likelihood of successful conflict resolution in different regions are affected by the character of great power involvement in these regions. Our argument is that although great power involvement or noninvolvement cannot cause or terminate regional conflicts, it can either intensify existing local conflicts or mitigate them. We will propose causal linkages between balances of great power capabilities and interests, types of great power involvement in regional conflicts, and patterns of regional conflicts. The study will distinguish among four types of great power involvement in regional conflicts: competition, cooperation, dominance, and disengagement. The empirical section will examine the application of these propositions in seven historical illustrations, representing the four patterns of great power involvement in regional conflicts. All the illustrations will deal with one conflict-ridden region-Eastern Europe and the Balkans, in successive historical periods from the post-Napoleonic era to the post-Cold War era. Because of the variety of patterns of great power involvement in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, this region is uniquely suited to examine the propositions derived from the theoretical framework. Drawing on both the theoretical deductions and the historical illustrations should make it possible in the last section to discuss briefly the implications of the proposed framework for regional conflict management or mitigation in the Balkans in the post-Cold War era.     

中国与大国关系预测

定量分析是国际政治研究中的重要方法。清华大学国际问题研究所“中国与大国关系衡量”课题组对大国双边关系进行定量分析,为研究大国关系、尤其是研究中国对外关系提供了一个有一定参考价值的新视角。课题组根据双边关系事件分值标准,将每月的双边关系事件进行赋值,然后按照影响力公式算出当月事件对双边关系的影响,最后得出当月的双边关系分值。在定量衡量基础上,课题组对双边关系分值进行量化预测,采用eviews软件对以往数据进行时间序列分析,得出其后三个月的预测分值,然后用经验预测法加以校正,即请专家根据经验对量化预测进行检验,从而得出量化预测与经验预测相结合的预测结果。     

中国与大国关系预测

在定量衡量双边关系时,我们将双边关系的性质划分为三大类别:敌对、非敌非友和友善。每一类别依照程度再分为两个等级,共计六个等级。敌对分为对抗和紧张两等,非敌非友分为不和与普通两等,友善分为良好和友好两等。六个等级对应的分值范围分别是:对抗(-9~-6)、紧张(-6~-3)、不和(-3~0)、普通(0~3)、良好(3~6)、友好(6~9)。每个等级再分为低等、中等和高等水平,正值与负值的低、中、高等水平方向相反。例如,在良好等级中,低等水平是3~4,中等水平是4~5,高等水平是5~6;在紧张等级中,低等水平是-3~-4,中等水平是-4~-5,高等水平是-5~-6。每个水平…     

Multi,polarization and the ＂Strategic Partnership＂ of the Big Powers

The international financial crisis has brought about major turbulence in the political arena of the world. The world is in a transition period. The trend of multi-polarization is dynamic and moves along the changes in the balance of international forces. An apparent feature in the recent ten years is that the strength and international influence of the sole super power--the US is comparatively decreasing. The international pattern that is developing in depth has led to contradictions and frictions of various kinds, especially the political and economic problems among the big powers and between the existing powers and the emerging powers. However,     

伊拉克战争与大西洋联盟危机的基本特点与性质--兼评"安全主导权之争"说

伊拉克战争引发美国与法德轴心的欧盟冲突,大西洋联盟爆发危机。这一危机显示了多层次与复杂性的特点。大西洋联盟危机的性质,尚未发展到联盟解体的质变程度。它是多种因素综合作用的产物,是原有矛盾在新形势下的继续。将其爆发简单归至于一种原因不妥,只用“安全主导权之争”解读有失偏颇。     

小国大外交——新加坡大国平衡战略的形成与演变

新加坡是世界上众多微型国家中的一个成功典范,它不但在短短的几十年里取得了举世瞩目的经济社会成就,而且在国际上拥有其他小国所无法拥有的国际地位,发挥着与其人口和土地面积极不相称的影响力.这些成就的取得的一个重要因素就是新加坡在李光耀外交战略思想指导下,大国平衡战略的形成和实施.     

大国崛起与政治家的责任

大国成长过程中最大的风险是过度扩张引起崛起受挫,而政治家秉持何种战略,这对崛起的结果殊为关键.就历史经验来看,政治家秉持明智的战略,这对国家成功崛起有着重要的作用.要实现这一目标,政治家需要保持国内战略和国际战略的平衡,在国内层面控制民众不合理的激情和欲望,平衡各集团之间的利益冲突,防止国内的纠纷外溢到国际社会.在国际层面上,政治家则应该引导国家追求适度的权力,同时保持自我克制,通过战略学习积累经验.     

冷战与越战的起源

冷战 ,指的是二次世界大战结束以后形成的各自以苏联和美国为首的东西方两大政治、军事集团之间的紧张斗争和较量。这种斗争的形式既是和平的也是非和平的。苏联和美国是冷战的主角 ,它们之间的关系构成了东西方冷战的核心内容 ①。一般把1947年美国“杜鲁门主义”的出台作为冷战开始的标志 ,把1991年苏联的解体作为冷战结束的标志 ,持续时间长达44年之久。越南战争是指二战后美国在越南进行的干涉和战争。关于越战的起始时间 ,学术界说法不一 ,笔者以1961年肯尼迪发动特种战争为标志②。越战的起源与冷战有着密切的联系。一、20世纪50年代…