从"部门间政治模式"看美对我台军售决策特点

罗伯特.帕斯托(Robert A.Pastor)提出的"部门间政治模式"(Inter-branch Politics Model),用国会─行政部门的互动过程作为理解美国外交政策的解释工具。通过用这一模式分析可以发现,美国对我台军售决策具有如下特点:行政部门在对我台军售决策中居于主导地位;国会积极介入对我台军售决策,对行政部门不断施压以推动对我台军售升级,是对我台军售的积极推手;国会的政策常具有挑衅性,行政部门相对而言会更多地从战略角度出发,扮演的是较为理性和务实的角色;美国政府并不是单一的行为者,最终的对我台军售决策是不同部门之间的平衡术。     

克赫顿政府对台军售决策的跨机构模式分析

美国外交政策是美国行政当局和国会共同做出的,是经过协商、谈判、讨价还价、斗争最后达成的妥协的结果。在对台军售问题上,克林顿政府时期是行政部门与国会矛盾比较明显的时期。本文从外交决策跨机构模式的视角对该时期府会之争的状况、原因、国会介入的方式以及结果来探讨美国对台军售政策的制定过程。     

克林顿政府对台军售决策的跨机构模式分析

美国外交政策是美国行政当局和国会共同做出的，是经过协商、谈判、讨价还价、斗争最后达成的妥协的结果。在对台军售问题上，克林顿政府时期是行政部门与国会矛盾比较明显的时期。本文从外交决策跨机构模式的视角对该时期府会之争的状况、原因、国会介入的方式以及结果来探讨美国对台军售政敲的制定过程。     

美国如何决定对台售武

美 国对台军售首先需要台湾当局提出清单。接到台湾方面的采购清单后 ,美国国防部派专家前往台湾实地考察。结合专家的考察意见 ,美国防部会向行政当局提交书面评估报告。为督促和加强售台武器工作 ,美国会还要求国防部向国会报告其对台湾军事需求所作的评估。与此同时 ,美国国务院、国家安全委员会也就对台军售提出了意见和建议。围绕对台军售问题 ,美国行政当局在三四月间进行内部讨论 ,协调各部门间的分歧 ,最后由总统作出决定。总统的决定主要受到三方面的影响。首先是国会方面的压力 ,国会历年来一直呼吁加大军售力度 ,并要求参与对台…     

美国对台军售问题探因

美国对台军售问题的原因主要有以下几点:一是美国在台湾有着巨大的战略利益,二是可以攫取巨额的经济利益,三是意识形态因素在起作用,四是美国国内政治因素的影响以及台湾当局图谋分裂分治等。     

中美军事关系：历史、现实与未来

中美军事关系是中美关系的重要组成部分。中美建交30多年来,两国军事关系经历了三个不同的发展阶段。目前,美国对台军售、战略互信难以建立、突发事件频繁干扰是影响中美军事关系发展的主要障碍。中美军事关系呈现军事关系从属于政治关系、交流层次在低水平徘徊和美国在双边军事关系中占据主动地位等特点。虽然中美双方在维护全球战略稳定和亚太地区安全、应对非传统安全威胁等领域拥有广泛的共同利益,但是中美两国之间的战略分歧仍将长期存在,未来两国军事关系的发展仍面临诸多挑战和变数。     

打破中美两军关系“怪圈”

<正> 一要着眼大局,二要学会共处,积极寻求逐步消除两国两军关系发展障碍的途径当前的中美关系"被聚焦"在两军关系上。自今年1月奥巴马政府突然宣布大宗"对台军售"以来,中美两军交往再度     

欧盟何时解除对华军售禁令

解除对华军售禁令是推进中欧全面战略伙伴关系实质性发展的关键一环。由于美国对欧盟外交事务的干涉,解禁还涉及到欧、美跨大西洋联盟关系以及大国间全球战略安全问题,从不同角度触及到美、欧及俄罗斯各方利益和地区问题。     

国际“州官”的逻辑

美国政府于8月25日以所谓中国向巴基斯坦进行了与M—11导弹相关的转让为由决定对中国和巴基斯坦实行“二级制裁”,即禁止向受制裁的国家出口敏感的高技术产品,又演了一出仗势欺人的闹剧。近几年来,美国在军售军控问题上对中国等国实行制裁或以制裁相威胁已不止一次,而且每次似乎都振振有词:什么要“防止大规模杀伤性武器及其运载工具的扩散”、什么“不能向敏感地区出售武器”、什么“不能破坏美国所关切地区的均势”等,俨然一付“世界和平”卫道士的面目。然而,当人们看一下美国的实际做法时就不难发现,美国在军售军控问题上扮演的是一个国际“州官”的角色——它自己可以为所欲为,而不允许别国做任何合理合法的事。     

美国对台军售目的何在

４月，美国政府将举行论证 会，决定是否向台湾出售包 括装备有宙斯盾（Ａｅｇｉｓ）（也被译为“神盾”）舰队防空系统和作战管理系统的“阿利·伯克”（Ａｒｌｅｉｇｈ Ｂｕｒｋｅ）级导弹驱逐舰“爱国者－３”型导弹给台湾。这是继去年９月２８日美国政府再次宣布将向台湾出售１３．０８亿美元的武器装备后，美国对台军售的又一重要举动。美国明知台湾问题是中美关系中的最重要、最敏感的问题，为什么一而再、再而三地向台湾出售先进武器，甘冒恶化中美关系的风险呢？ 称霸全球中的 遏制中国战略 美国的一些人认为，在２１世纪，谁能取得…     

INTERNAL COMPETITION OVER FOREIGN POLICY-MAKING: THE CASE OF U.S. ARMS SALES TO IRAN

Two models of foreign-policy making, the bureaucratic politics model and the royal court model, are helpful in explaining U.S. arms sales to Iran in 1985 and in 1986. The bureaucratic politics model is particularly useful in clarifying both the positions taken by the leaders of the foreign policy bureaucracy to the arms sales proposals and the behavior of these officials as the sales were implemented. However, the royal court model best ac- counts for the decisive role of the president and the deference given to those advisers perceived to be acting in his interests.     

In Arms We Trust: the Economic and Strategic Factors Motivating China-Iran Relations

This article examines contemporary China-Iran relations, focusing on the economic and strategic ties that have helped solidify the relationship since 1979. We begin with an overview of the arms and technology transfers that mark the early years of the relationship, analyzing the benefits each side gained from these transactions. In addition to discussing the short-term financial benefits behind forging stronger ties, we examine how the regional ascent of both states has also presented several long term factors that helped motivate their cooperation. These developments shed light on the important role the U.S. has played, both in terms of where it has tried to intervene and what success it has had influencing the Sino-Iranian relationship.     

彩票市场政府监管体制的国际比较

世界各国的彩票市场都处于政府的严格监管之下,英国、美国和法国的彩票监管体制是最有代表性的三种监管模式.通过对三种代表性监管模式的比较分析,本文认为,一个国家的彩票市场结构必须符合彩票市场技术经济特征,但彩票监管机构的设置与监管权力的配置主要是政府选择的结果,与该国的行政管理体制密切相关;而彩票公益金的使用方向则直接取决于彩票发行的目的.     

Research on immigrant earnings

As the first in a trio of pieces devoted to incorporating immigration into policy models, this review of research on immigrant earnings trajectories brings to light several findings. Controlling for demographic and human capital characteristics, immigrants often start their U.S. lives at substantially lower earnings, but experience faster earnings growth than natives with comparable years of education and experience. The extent to which the earnings trajectories of immigrants and natives differ varies by country of origin, with the source-country's level of economic development being a key determinant of the size of the U.S.-born/ foreign-born difference. The earnings profiles of immigrants from economically developed countries such as Japan, Canada, or Western Europe resemble those of U.S. natives who are of the same age and education level. In contrast, the earnings of immigrants from developing nations tend to start well below those of U.S. natives with comparable education levels and experience, but rise more rapidly than their U.S. counterparts. Comparing the earnings profiles of immigrants of similar age, sex, and years of schooling, over time and across groups, a strong inverse relationship emerges between their initial earnings and their subsequent U.S. earnings growth. In other words, the lower (higher) the initial earnings are, the higher (lower) the earnings growth. These and other research results have important implications for the projection of immigrant earnings and emigration in microsimulation models, as discussed in the two articles following this one: (1) "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models" and (2) "Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models".     

Lessons Learned: Obtaining Value from Federal Asset Sales

If the government decides to sell assets, how can it obtain full value? Four case studies provide valuable lessons: (1) sale of the Elk Hills oil field by the U.S. Department of Energy, (2) sales of loans and property by the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) after the savings and loan debacle, (3) loan asset sales by the Small Business Administration (SBA), and (4) excess property sales by the Defense Reutilization and Management Service (DRMS). The federal government should create an office to assist agencies that seek to develop effective asset sales programs.     

Viewpoint: Space System Negation in the Context of Space Policy and Law

For 21st century warfare, space is the unquestioned new high ground for military operations. The United States (U.S.) has relied on satellites for significant support to military operations and activities since Desert Storm in 1991. Indeed, the U.S. enjoys an asymmetric advantage in modern warfare utilizing our space capabilities. States with interests hostile to the U.S. believe that the significant dependence on space assets by the U.S. military could become its “Achilles heel” in future combat operations. What are the legal and policy bases for the U.S. to respond to threats to space systems that provide support to our military forces? Should the U.S. rely on space arms control initiatives to ensure security in space? This Viewpoint analyzes the international space law regime and U.S. National Space Policy framework applicable to the conduct of military space operations and activities, including the use of force in space to protect and defend our satellite networks as well as our military forces.     

Congressional certification: How firms use former Congress members to lobby on their behalf

This paper models the effect of firm-level profitability (earnings before interest and taxes and return on sales) against certification by former members of the U.S. Congress. Although some scholars have studied certification, none have studied certification in the public policy market as is done in the current work. Likewise, although scholars have studied the effects of lobbying and political connections on firms' outcomes, none have studied lobbying through former Congress members specifically. The findings confirm that, after controlling for numerous factors, firms can use former Congress members to effectively lobby and certify their intentions. Both firm-level earnings before interest and taxes and return on sales were significantly associated with prior lobbying efforts by these former elected federal officials in several different estimation techniques employed in the study.     

Political economy of the U.S. temporary duty suspension program: An empirical note

We examine every TDS Bill introduced by the House of Representatives and approved by the U.S. International Trade Commission in the last six years. The significant relationship between these bills and campaign contributions coupled with the personal characteristics of proponents and sponsors influence the policy outcomes of the U.S. TDS Program.     

An Overview of Adjustments to the Budget Enforcement Act Discretionary Spending Caps

This article reviews the adjustments that have been made to the limits on discretionary federal spending that were enacted as part of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. Each type of adjustment authorized by that act is described, and the actual adjustments made by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget are discussed. Tables that display the amounts and timing of the adjustments are used to support the narrative. The article also discusses the relationship of cap adjustments to changes in the federal budget deficit.     

U.S.-China Space Cooperation: Balancing Act between the U.S. Congress and President

There are a growing number of U.S. space scientists and managers calling for reinitiating cooperation with China in space. It is well-known that investigations of the U.S. Congress into various allegations involving China have resulted in a series of laws curtailing space cooperation between these two countries. By surveying the concurrent political developments within the United States in the 1980s and 1990s, this article attempts to reveal the domestic compulsions that propelled changes in the U.S. space policy towards China. The fundamental impetus is the power struggle and differences between the U.S. president and Congress in their perception of U.S. economic interests and national security in the context of space technology that strained these relations. Recent U.S. presidents who inherited this situation added to the discourse based on their own perceptions about outer space and China. These perceptions either found congruence with the policy of the U.S. Congress or led to finding ways to circumvent its legal restrictions. Based on these developments, it is concluded that the view of the U.S. president has alternated between necessary, desirable, and objectionable on the issue of U.S.-China space cooperation, and the U.S. Congress has thus shifted from supporting to restricting and then legally banning cooperation.