2012年菲律宾政治、经济与外交形势回顾

2012年的菲律宾,国内政局总体而言比2011年平顺很多,尤其是菲政府与国内分裂势力之一的"摩伊解"的谈判取得了重大进展,双方就在南部建立"邦萨摩洛"达成框架协定,以取代现有的棉兰老岛穆斯林自治区,但政局动荡,稳定之路依然任重道远;经济比较繁荣,GDP年增长率达到6.6%,遥遥领先于东南亚其他国家;外交方面,菲律宾延续了过去联美、联日来抗中的路线。     

菲律宾2010年经济、政治与外交形势回顾

2010年的菲律宾,经济复苏形势喜人,总体表现好于预期;在国内政治方面,冲突与犯罪不断,和解稳定之路任重道远;外交方面,虽然在发展菲中经贸关系、配合美国东南亚政策以及在南海问题维护本国利益等方面有所斩获,但也因香港游客人质事件与中国关系紧张。     

《美菲共同防御条约》的适用范围问题再分析

美菲两国在《美菲共同防御条约》的适用范围问题上长期存在分歧。在特朗普政府之前，美国为实现其总体的对外政策目标，在该条约是否适用于南海的问题上刻意保持模糊性，没有明确宣布该条约适用于南海，同时美国拒绝将菲律宾提出主权要求的南海争议岛礁纳入该条约的适用范围。特朗普上任之后，随着美国的对华战略和南海政策发生重大改变，特朗普政府不仅明确宣布《美菲共同防御条约》适用于南海地区，而且试图把中国的两个岛礁美济礁和仁爱礁也变相纳入《美菲共同防御条约》的适用范围。特朗普政府的这种政策调整被拜登政府继承。美国在《美菲共同防御条约》适用范围问题上的政策调整严重损害了中国的利益，威胁了南海地区的和平与稳定。中国须对此保持高度警惕。     

菲美特殊关系与马卡帕加尔民族主义外交

进入20世纪60年代以后,菲律宾国内外政治环境的变化开始冲击牢固的菲美特殊关系基石。1962年马卡帕加尔总统上台后,发起了以"亚洲办法解决亚洲问题"的民族主义外交改革运动,企图借助沙巴领土争端和马菲印多提升菲律宾的独立形象和国际地位。但是,此时的菲律宾民族主义政治力量仍然难以撼动根深蒂固的菲美特殊关系。当印马对抗加剧、美国态度转为强硬后,马卡帕加尔政府又急于重回特殊关系的轨道。马卡帕加尔的民族主义外交运动是菲律宾外交"去特殊化"的第一次尝试,对后来的菲美关系产生了深远的影响。     

“印太战略”下美菲同盟强化的动向与影响

在“印太战略”背景下，拜登政府将东南亚定位为“印太区域架构的核心”和“地缘政治竞争的中心”,在经济、发展和安全等领域全面重启东南亚政策，以维护美国在东南亚、印太乃至全球的战略优势。因其独特的战略重要性，美菲同盟成为拜登政府重振美国的全球联盟和伙伴关系，构建印太区域安全机制和提升区域掌控能力，应对和克服中国日益增强的军事能力和经济挑战的关键一环。为此，围绕军事、政治、经济、社会等多个领域，拜登政府主要通过“内部深化”和“外部拓展”两大路径，全方位推进美菲军事同盟不断强化，并在菲方政治势力配合下实现其战略目标。不过，这一目标仍面临美国内政、菲方意愿及美国自身能力等关键因素的限制。     

菲律宾与俄罗斯双边关系的发展及中国的应对

2016年以来,菲律宾与俄罗斯的关系迅速拉近,双方释放的合作意愿不只限于军事、能源等领域,还涉及共同构建新的世界"一极"。虽然基于历史基础、地缘政治、经济结构等因素判断,菲俄合作水平在中短期内不会提升太快,构建新的国际联盟或力量"一极"也为时尚早,但是由于亚太秩序正处于变化与调整中,菲律宾与俄罗斯的相互接近具有一定的外溢效应,为考察与评估亚太安全格局的未来走向提供了一个新视角。菲俄拉近双边关系对中国的影响具有两面性,一方面菲俄合作具有平衡中国的潜在意图,另一方面,在短期内,中俄菲三方具有更广泛的利益共识。因此,中国应发挥自身地缘优势,利用新的合作机制与地区倡议,加强中俄、中菲的双边合作与中俄菲在地区多边对话中的协调,这是本文研究的政策含义所在。     

1945年菲律宾经济民族化运动与美菲政局

1945年,因日本占领和美菲政局的影响,菲律宾掀起一场不同于以往的经济民族化运动。这一运动既影响到菲律宾的华侨零售业者,也波及到除美国外的其他外国商人。此时,美国正准备应对菲律宾的独立,菲律宾的极端民族化趋势令美国政府担心将来自身在菲利益受损。在菲律宾即将独立的敏感时刻,中国外交官员和侨领积极与美国政府交涉,终于通过美国的干预暂时缓解局面。这场未果的经济民族化运动,折射出1945年的亚太局势、美菲关系和菲律宾的政坛纷争。     

非对称同盟内部矛盾与美菲关系的转折——以菲律宾对美国政策变化为主线

力量不对称的同盟是当今世界诸多双边或多边同盟的常态,而非对称同盟中更弱小的一方基于有限实力和安全需求的考虑,通常都会依赖同盟大国的保护,为此在对外政策中更多地选择追随同盟大国的行为.然而,国际政治的历史和现实却一再表明,非对称同盟中的小国也可能表现出与常规认知相反的、针对其更强大盟友的外交疏离行为,也即在不对称同盟内部可能存在比常规矛盾更加深刻的问题.本文从盟友之间的战略分歧、收益落差及需求差异,盟国自身的内政变化,以及同盟外部威胁的弱化三个层面分析非对称同盟内小国对大国的"外交疏离"现象,并结合美国与菲律宾同盟关系的调整及美菲在南海问题中的互动,进一步分析上述三个层面影响要素的解释能力,指出美菲关系在克服这些矛盾时所面临的挑战,以及此类同盟内部矛盾得以缓和与化解的条件.     

阿罗约时期菲美安全合作及其影响

在2001年"9·11事件"之后,美国将菲律宾视为一个坚定的盟友,再次发现了菲律宾在反恐战争中的战略价值,菲美以反恐为契机开展了密切的安全合作。2004年7月菲律宾因人质事件提前从伊拉克战场撤军之后,菲美安全合作遭受重创,但随后又有所恢复。这一时期菲律宾在中美之间奉行"大国平衡"外交,重视与中国的关系,并发展与中国的安全和防务合作,但是中菲之间的外交与安全合作关系未能动摇美国在菲律宾安全合作中的地位。与菲律宾的反恐合作只是菲美安全合作的一个方面,美国更重视发挥菲律宾在其全球军力部署中前沿阵地和安全合作站点的作用,美国的这一意图也反映在2014年菲美《加强防御合作框架协定》之中。     

菲美安全合作及其对中国安全环境的影响分析

菲律宾是第一个表示支持美国反恐斗争的亚洲国家,反恐战争使双方之间的安全合作关系迅速升温,用美国总统布什的话说,美菲在反恐战争中已经是"军事同盟".本文分析了菲美安全合作关系迅速升温的原因、影响,并针对菲美安全合作对中国安全环境的影响提出了一些政策建议.     

Navigating a Highly Protected Market: China’s Chery Automobile in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

The economies of Malaysia and China have become increasingly integrated through trading and investment linkages. This article focuses on one aspect of this relationship, examining Chery, a Chinese car maker, and its internationalisation strategy and its localisation efforts in Malaysia. It does this by analysing Chery’s interaction with the host government, local partners and suppliers. Using an in-depth case study, it was found that Chery’s experience in navigating a set of complex state–society relations in Malaysia resulted from an adaptation of its business strategy to address protectionist and institutional constraints found in Malaysia. However, while relations between Chery, the local partner and government agencies have grown strongly, few interactions have evolved between Chery and local suppliers and national research and development facilities, limiting collective learning processes and production collaboration in Malaysia. The evidence also suggests that Chery’s present conundrum of low sales in the country could be solved through negotiations with the Malaysian government so as to evolve mutually beneficial partnerships with national automotive makers. The Malaysian government may also consider easing its protectionist measures to allow more foreign participation into the auto sector to stimulate growth and competitiveness.     

The voice and loyalty of business in Kuwait: merchant politics in times of contention

According to the classic rentier state theory literature, the political activity of Kuwaiti merchants effectively ceased after the government acquired oil rents. More recent works explain business alliances with the government through the competition for resources between the capitalist class and the population at large. This article argues that the merchants’ political position vis-à-vis the ruling powers has not been consistent and has shifted between ‘voice’ and ‘loyalty’. To explain the choice of political action by the Kuwaiti business community the article compares the merchants’ role in two major contentious events—the popular uprising of 2011 and the 1989 pro-democracy movement. Despite the similarities between them, in 1989 prominent business figures were in the vanguard of opposition, while after 2011 they chose to re-emerge as government allies. The comparison suggests that the shift from ‘voice’ to ‘loyalty’ can be explained by the changing political field. I contend that the rise of new social forces and new types of political opposition antagonized business and forced it to side with the government in order to pursue its vital rent-seeking interests.     

Germany and the Kosovo war: still a civilian power?

This article assesses the motives, significance and implications of Germany's participation in the 1999 Kosovo War. This was all the more remarkable, because it took place under a Red–Green government and was not legitimised by a UN mandate. Events in Kosovo forced the new government to choose between two foreign policy articles of faith of the German Left: ‘nie wieder Krieg’ (‘never again war’) and ‘nie wieder Auschwitz’ (‘never again Auschwitz’). The government tried to ease this dilemma by flanking its participation in the war with intensive efforts to secure a negotiated settlement of the crisis involving Russia. Despite its participation in the war, Germany remains a ‘civilian power’, as it is committed to deploying military force strictly multilaterally. Kosovo shows that it has become a normal ‘civilian power’, comparable to other mature democracies in the Euro-Atlantic community.     

Petitioning in early seventeenth-century Scotland, 1625–51

ABSTRACT

In contrast to recent work on England and other parts of Europe, research on petitioning in early modern Scotland is still in its early stages, notably in respect of its political significance in a comparative context. This article investigates supplicatory activity in Scotland during a crucial period in which the petition came under intense scrutiny. The 1630s saw a determined attempt by King Charles I’s Scottish government to clamp down on the use of supplications to express criticism of royal policy; assertive, but carefully controlled, petitioning was one part of a resistance strategy that resulted in the downfall of the king’s regime. When a new government came to power in 1638 headed by the Covenanters, petitioning activity came to be seen as a potential challenge to their authority. Petitioning does not appear to have invoked ‘opinion’ in 1640s Scotland as has been claimed for England; the printed petition remained a rarity in Scotland. Nevertheless constitutional reform, combined with the wartime conditions of the 1640s, generated more recourse to petitioning, and the government recognized opportunities to enhance its claims to legitimate rule. A preliminary investigation of everyday petitions to the government during the 1640s shows how the narratives constructed by supplicants often sought to endorse its values and ideals, but that this type of petitioning was also used by supplicants to critique the government’s policies and hold it to its own rhetoric.     

抗争的动力:新媒体与缅甸的民主化

自从2007年以来,缅甸社会政治发生了很大变化,其中新媒体起了很关键的作用。在2007年"藏红花"革命和2008年纳吉斯风灾中,缅甸人民利用互联网、移动电话等新媒体技术向世界传递了政府镇压和掩盖的真相。缅甸军人政府也明显感到了新媒体技术对其统治的压力,因此在2010年缅甸大选之前,严格控制国内的互联网。新媒体技术的出现虽然没有导致缅甸社会权力结构发生实质性的变化,但是新媒体技术打破了原来军政府对信息的封锁,逐渐促进了缅甸的民主化进程。     

Economics before politics– a colonial phantasy

I shall now try to recapitulate the argument of the paper and to draw a conclusion from it. The early pages gave evidence that, although the Australian government during the 1960s took the initiative in setting up the constitutional framework for a democratic polity, on the whole they assigned primacy, especially in the second half of the period, to policies of economic development. Without entering into the merits or successes of those policies themselves, I attributed the basic order of priorities to a mixture of motives and assumptions. The first assumption was that Australia's colonial responsibility and her commitment to heavily subsidised economic development required restraints on political development, and hence the prolongation of colonial dependence. The conflict between this assumption and Australia's trusteeship obligations could be rationalised by the notion of cautious ‘preparation’ of the people for self-determination, under Australian official guidance, and with the bait of continued Australian aid. This rationalisation seemed to be supported by a ‘vulgar’ Marxian belief in the primacy of economic activity and the secondary importance of political and other social functions. However, it was also hoped that economic change need have no awkward political repercussions. To sustain that hope, it was further assumed that while the colonial regime lasted, the government of Papua and New Guinea could be treated as essentially an administrative task, untrammelled by the claims of autonomous political ideologies and interests. If the policy makers for Papua and New Guinea held such a set of assumptions, consciously or otherwise, it would go far to explain some of the leading features of the country's governmental history in recent years: the strength of its economic planning machinery and the lack of sophistication in its administrative and political dealings; the relatively perfunctory efforts at political ‘preparation’; the attempts to keep local government and the public service ‘non-political’ and to contain incipient politics in the House of Assembly; the paternalistic controls over members of formal government institutions; above all, the failure to maintain meaningful communication with the groups of people most profoundly affected by the incidence of economic development itself. For experience had falsified the basic assumptions of policy, so far as they accord a primary role to economics, relied on a comfortable continuance of the colonial relationship, and conceived government mainly in terms of administration. Politics the demand for the reconciliation of conflicting interests by autonomous negotiation—had erupted in local government, in the House of Assembly, in political associations, and in the villages. I t had erupted in spite of the assumptions of the regime—and also because of them, for the more rigidly such beliefs are practised, the more violent is the reaction likely to be. The conclusion, then, is that politics is independent of economics, and interdependent with it. In the government of Papua and New Guinea, as of any such country, political skills are as important as economic planning if economic growth is to be matched by political stability.     

The Paris Peace Conference and the Armenian arguments on Garabagh

The South Caucasus, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, is one of the most challenging regions in the world, owing to its long-lasting and ongoing conflicts. One of these conflicts is between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the current stage of which has continued for 25 years without any prospect of a settlement in the near future. For a better understanding of this conflict it is necessary to go back to 1918 and 1919, which witnessed the emergence of the first Azerbaijan and Armenian Republics. The article examines and assesses the ethnic, historical, economic, geographical and security arguments submitted by the Armenian government to the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 to substantiate its vision of territorial delimitation between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding Garabagh. The article argues that Armenian nationalism was ethnic nationalism and that the Armenian government constructed politically motivated arguments to substantiate its claims to Garabagh, which were part of its nationalist aim of constructing an Armenian ‘ethno-nation’ in the area from the Mediterranean to Garabagh.     

Ordinary Singapore: The Decline of Singapore Exceptionalism

For decades Singapore’s ruling elite has sought to legitimate its rule by claiming to be a talented and competent elite that has made Singapore an exception among its neighbours – an exemplar of success and progress in a sea of mediocrity. In this article it is contended that this basis of legitimation has been irreversibly damaged. In essence, it is suggested that the governing People’s Action Party has lost control of the national narrative, and its achievements are increasingly regarded as being “ordinary” by the electorate. The mystique of exceptionalism, which was the basis on which the government was widely presumed to be above the need for close scrutiny and accountability, has collapsed. This collapse has substantially levelled the political playing field, at least in terms of expectations and assumptions. The government can and probably will continue to win elections and rule through its control of the instruments of institutional power, but the genie of scepticism and accountability has been released from its bottle, and it is hard to see how it can be put back in. This fundamentally changes the condition of Singapore politics: the narrative of exceptionalism is dead and the Singapore elite finds itself struggling to cope in a new and critical political environment.     

South Africa’s civil war, 1985–1995

The end of apartheid in South Africa is typically characterised as ‘peaceful’. However, between 1985 and 1995, South Africa experienced a civil war in which more than 20,000 people died. In this war, the African National Congress (ANC) implemented a strategy of ‘people’s war’ based on Vietnam’s experience while the government pursued a counterinsurgency strategy based on models employed by the United States. In the war’s second phase, the ANC and Inkatha employed unconventional tactics in a campaign to gain political and military control of disputed territory. Owing to its success in the war, the ANC was able to prevent its rivals from significantly limiting its power in the central government after 1994 as well as exclude Inkatha from operating in key areas even in its home province.