The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?

Major crises can act as critical junctures or reinforce the political status quo, depending on how citizens view the performance of central institutions. We use an interrupted time series to study the political effect of the enforcement of a strict confinement policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we take advantage of a unique representative web-based survey that was fielded in March and April 2020 in Western Europe to compare the political support of those who took the survey right before and right after the start of the lockdown in their country. We find that lockdowns have increased vote intentions for the party of the Prime Minister/President, trust in government and satisfaction with democracy. Furthermore, we find that, while rallying individuals around current leaders and institutions, they have had no effect on traditional left–right attitudes.     

Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects?

How can we explain the rise in diffuse political support during the Covid-19 pandemic? Recent research has argued that the lockdown measures generated political support. In contrast, I argue that the intensity of the pandemic rallied people around political institutions. Collective angst in the face of exponentially rising Covid-19 cases depresses the usual cognitive evaluations of institutions and leads citizens to rally around existing intuitions as a lifebuoy. Using a representative Dutch household survey conducted over March 2020, I compare the lockdown effect to the dynamic of the pandemic. I find that the lockdown effect is driven by pre-existing time trends. Accounting for non-linearities in time makes the lockdown effect disappear. In contrast, more flexible modelling techniques reveal a robust effect of Covid-19 infections on political trust. In line with an anxiety effect, I find that standard determinants of political trust – such as economic evaluations and social trust – lose explanatory power as the pandemic spreads. This speaks to an emotionally driven rally effect that pushes cognitive evaluations to the background.     

Rallying in fear? Estimating the effect of the UK COVID-19 lockdown with a natural experiment

We use a natural experiment to study how the announcement of the UK COVID-19 lockdown affected citizens' attitudes towards the pandemic and the government's response to it. On the day of the lockdown announcement, YouGov ran a survey that captured responses before and after the announcement. Comparison of these responses suggests that the lockdown announcement made people more supportive of the government's response to the crisis but also (perhaps surprisingly) more concerned about the pandemic. Analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects suggests that the announcement narrowed gaps in perceptions of the crisis, increasing support for the government's response especially among those who had been least supportive and increasing concern about the pandemic especially among those who had been least concerned. Overall, the findings highlight a tension inherent in governing during times of crisis: actions that increase people's confidence in government and induce compliance with government directives may also tend to increase anxiety among the population.     

确立并践行新理念是形式主义问题的治本之策——以新冠肺炎疫情防控为例

形式主义是个老大难问题,治理起来相当困难。在新冠肺炎疫情防控过程中,尤其是在初期和一些地方,形式主义问题不仅存在还比较严重。在防控疫情这一“准战时”状态下,形式主义问题危害性更大。形式主义问题的根源是官僚主义,而官僚主义的形成有体制和思想两个层面的原因。从这两个层面施治,都属于治本之策,其中思想或理念层面的引领尤为重要。党的十八大以来,习近平总书记倡导并形成了三大新理念,即问题导向、结果导向和民意导向。与新理念相对立的旧理念正是形式主义问题的思想根源。新理念不只是理念,还是一套行动指南。只要确立并践行新理念,就能有效抑制形式主义问题的滋生,从而起到重要的治本作用。     

从工业化就业到数字化工作:新工作范式转型与政策框架

基于市场机制演进的必然性与数字技术赋能的可行性,作为外生冲击的新冠肺炎疫情加速了从工业经济就业范式向数字经济工作范式的转型,这种新工作范式主要体现在从组织型就业向自主型工作转换,从集中型就业向分布型工作转换,从单一型就业向多元型工作转换。新工作范式推动了新工作政策框架的形成发展与优化完善,新工作政策框架主要着力于创造更加稠密的工作市场和促进更加便利的工作匹配,着力于包容更加多元的人力资本关系和提升更加专业的工作技能,着力于提供更加普遍的社会保障和保护更加全面的工作权利,从而能够真正满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要。     

What drives compliance with COVID-19 measures over time? Explaining changing impacts with Goal Framing Theory

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to study which factors drive compliance and how the evolving context in society –virus fluctuations and changing government measures – changes the impact of these factors. Extant literature lists many factors that drive compliance – notably enforcement, trust, legitimacy. Most of these studies, however, do not look across time: whether a changing context for citizens changes the impact of factors driving compliance. In this study, we use Lindenberg's Goal Framing Theory to explain the dynamics of these drivers of compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate hypotheses for pro-socialness, trust in government, observed respect for rules, rule effectiveness, rule appropriateness, fear of COVID-19 (severity and proximity), opportunities for pleasure and happiness, as well as worsened income position. We test our hypotheses with data collected at three different moments during the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in Flanders, Belgium. Findings show that over time the constellations of factors that drive compliance change and, later in the pandemic, more distinct groups of citizens with different motivations to comply are identified. The overall conclusion is that the voluntary basis for compliance becomes more fragile over time, with a more differentiated pattern of drivers of compliance emerging. Public policy and communication need to adapt to these changes over time and address different groups of citizens.