SIDESTEPPING A QUAGMIRE: RUSSIA,SYRIA, AND THE LESSONS OF THE SOVIET-AFGHAN WAR

Russia's military intervention in Syria (2015-present) has ensured the Assad regime's survival to date. Why though has Russia succeeded in achieving its objective? This article provides an analysis of Russia's involvement in the Syrian civil war in comparison to the Soviet Union's military debacle in Afghanistan (1979-89). Accordingly, by avoiding the USSR's mistakes in Afghanistan, this article posits that Russia has not become entangled in a protracted conflict in Syria. In Syria, Russia has militarily intervened to buttress the Assad regime, not to reorganize the host government's leadership and assume control over the war effort. Meanwhile, Syrian opposition forces lack concerted international support and Russia has allies that are assisting the embattled Syrian government. Lastly, Russia intends to ‘freeze’ the Syrian civil war in place by (i) pressuring opposition forces to submit and other countries to re-embrace Damascus in a diplomatic forum, (ii) endorsing Syria's claim to sovereignty, and (iii) relying upon a small military presence to deter others from destabilizing Assad's rule.     

Hide and seek? Israeli–Turkish relations and the Baghdad pact

The aim of this article is to address the impact of the Baghdad Pact and the Anglo-American defense system and its collapse on the Turkish–Israeli relationship from 1954 to 1958, a discussion that is absent from scholarly studies. The article will highlight the different approaches and views of the two parties and their impact on the cold war alliances and the Arab–Israeli conflict. Examining this from the perspectives of both Ankara and Jerusalem will contribute to a comprehensive study of the bilateral relations during the 1950s. Some of the main questions to be addressed are: to what extent, if at all, did the Baghdad Pact change bilateral relations between Turkey and Israel? What were Israel's main concerns? Were its suspicions of Turkey's changing policy founded? How much was Turkey influenced by Iraq's membership of the Pact and its hostile attitude toward Israel? Was Turkey's attempt to maintain reasonable relations with both Israel and Iraq a realistic aim? All these will be assessed against regional upheavals and the cold war politics with current implications.     

Divide and conquer: the consolidation of Hafiz al-Assad's policy toward Lebanon – the early stages

This article examines the attitude of Syria toward Lebanon during the first years of Hafiz al-Assad's regime. Assad adhered to the policy of ‘divide and conquer’, in which Syria purposefully prevented any Lebanese figure from becoming too powerful in the political arena. The article will analyze two cases of prominent Lebanese leaders in which Syria applied this policy, President Suleiman Frangieh and the Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt. Both were close allays of Assad, but this fact did not prevent the latter from acting against his friends. The article's main claim is that by using this policy, Assad paved the way for Syrian intervention and increasing influence in the land of the cedars.     

The Quest for a Balance of Power in Lebanon during Suleiman Frangieh's Presidency, 1970–76

This paper examines the changes in the balance of power in domestic and foreign arenas in Lebanon during the regime of President Suleiman Frangieh between the years of 1970 and 1976. Changes occurred in both arenas which influenced the stability of the regime and led the country to a civil war. In the domestic political arena, the regime ceased to rely on a Maronite–Sunni–Shiite axis and began to rely firstly on a Maronite–Shiite axis, and then on a Maronite–Druze axis. These steps aroused the Sunni establishment against the regime and led to instability. In the foreign arena, the regime exchanged their policy of neutrality on Arab and international arenas in favour of leaning towards ‘revolutionary’ Arab countries such as Syria, Iraq and Libya. This led to a rise in the influence and intervention of these Arab countries in Lebanese political affairs and escalated the turbulence on the streets of Lebanon against the Frangieh regime.     

ISIS in Mosul and Sirte: Differences and similarities

Today, ISIS is a serious security threats in the Mediterranean area; it is active or controls areas in the Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Turkey) and in North Africa (Libya, Tunisia and Sinai). Media reports and several research papers seem to refer to ISIS as a group that operates indiscriminately in these areas and regions using the same political, military, social, and economic pattern. However, looking closely at some of the theatres of war the situations appears different. Taking into account two case studies, Iraq and Libya, it is possible to see how different social, economic, and political conditions have influenced the ability of ISIS to fight and to rule, and consequently its ability to “remaining and expanding”. The comparison between the longer and more linked to social fabric operations in Iraq and the shorter and more alien to social fabric operations in Libya will shed light on weaknesses and strength of ISIS, its future developments, and potentially on operations of other militias.     

GEORGE W. BUSH AND ASIA: IN THE SHADOW OF 11 SEPTEMBER

Traditionally seen as a President consumed by the war on terror, George W. Bush is frequently portrayed as being relatively uninterested in Asia, and unable to outline a vision or a strategy to China, America’s Asian allies and Asian multilateral mechanisms. This article will revisit Bush’s policy on Asia and show a president who guided the United States with a policy that balanced the need to combat global terrorism and locate a focus on Asia. He faced the dilemmas of building cooperative relations with a rising China while trying to foster American alliances and partnerships in Asia, and managing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Utilizing qualitative content analysis as the main research method, the article will demonstrate that the Bush administration had not a lack of focus on Asia and that Bush’s diplomacy to Asia should be recognized as one of the most significant achievements of his presidency.     

IRAN OBSERVED: THE RISE OF THE IRANIAN NEO-CONSERVATIVES

McDowall relates how in 2005, contrary to the predictions of many western observers, Ahmadinejad was elected as President of Iran, reflecting popular disillusion with the reformist president, Khatami, and the rise of a new generation of politicians, whose relationships had been forged during the war with Iraq. Ahmadinejad came to power at an opportune moment: he could profile himself as an opponent of America and Israel. Wholesale changes in personnel formed the other mark of his revolution. Four years on, his populist economic policies have not proved effective, which could be significant in terms of the 2009 presidential elections. The crucial question is whether there is a suitable opposition candidate who might run against him. This is the edited text of the lecture which he gave to the Society on Wednesday 7 May 2008.     

Us strategy in the middle east and the 2004 presidential election 9/11: towards a redefinition of america's role in the world

September 11th dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape for the United States. Though President Bush was elected as a domestic policy president, the war against radical Islam has become the central theme of his presidency. In this war, adhering to the analyses of the neoconservatives, the President believes that the region's tyrannies are a breeding ground for Islamic extremism. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein's tyranny and replacing it with a more democratic regime is the start of a long process of liberalization of the Arab world that will have reverberations for years to come. Though Senator John Kerry has based his 2004 presidential campaign on criticizing President Bush's Iraq policy, if Kerry were elected president, his Iraq policies would actually differ little from those of Bush.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Fiasco, the American Military Adventure in Iraq , by Thomas E. Ricks. Insurgency and Counter‐Insurgency in Iraq , by Ahmed S. Hashim. Al Qaeda Now: Understanding Today's Terrorists , edited by Karen Greenberg The Future of Kurdistan in Iraq , Brendan O'Leary, John McGarry and Khalid Salih, eds. Two Birthdays in Baghdad, by Anna Prouse . Translated by Elizabeth Griffith. The Three Occupied UAE Islands: The Tunbs and Abu Musa , by Thomas R. Mattair. Iran Awakening: A Memoir of Revolution and Hope , by Shirin Ebadi, with Azadeh Moaveni The New Lion of Damascus: Bashar al‐Asad and Modern Syria , by David W. Lesch One Country: A Bold Proposal to End the Israeli‐Palestinian Impasse , by Ali Abunimah Structuring Conflict in the Arab World: Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions , by Ellen Lust‐Okar.     

Just War Doctrine and the Invasion of Iraq

In this article we adopt the framework of Just War doctrine to assess whether the 2003 invasion of Iraq was just. The six criteria against which we assess the justice of going to war are Just Cause, Right Authority, Right Intention, Reasonable Prospect of Success, Proportionate Cause and War as Last Resort. We focus upon what was known and said by the US, British and Australian governments around the time they decided to invade and consider whether there was sufficient justification and authorisation for the Iraq War. The key pre-war issues discussed include alleged Iraqi possession of WMD and links to terrorist organisations, and the meaning of UN Security Council resolutions. We conclude that, as the Just War criteria were not satisfied, the invasion of Iraq was unjust.     

Inscriptions of Violence in Northern Yemen: Haunting Histories,Unstable Moral Spaces

The article investigates the so-called ‘Huthi crisis’ in northern Yemen, centering on the recent confrontation between Zaydi Shi‘is and the government. The crisis is analysed in the context of local contestations over moral authority and regional developments since the late 1970s. The article shows how regional and global dynamics, notably Cold War strategic alliances, Saudi Arabia's aspirations to contain Shi‘ism on the Arabian Peninsula and American security concerns since 2001, have impacted local politics and configurations of power. The article argues that anxieties over the past remain, against the backdrop of the politicisation and repression of the Zaydi revivalist movement, depicted by the government as aiming to restore the imamate. The government was open to accusations of ambivalence towards Sunni militants, by using them alongside the army and giving them positions of power while at the same time claiming to counter their influence. Action against the Zaydis established its credentials in the ‘war on terror.’     

THE ART OF RESISTANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The author looks at the relationship between art and power and the ways in which resistance to power is manifested in art. This is a universal phenomenon, but the examples discussed are all from the Middle East, principally the Palestinian struggle, Iran, Lebanon and Iraq. Posters, graffiti etc all have their place and the events of the Arab Spring have shown the potential for the defacement of official public images as an act of defiance. The precise impact of these various art forms is not easy to measure, but clearly when someone can tear down the image of a president with impunity, something in political life has changed.     

Turco-British relations,Cold War and reshaping the Middle East: Egypt,Greece and Cyprus (1954–1958)

This article tries to shed light on Turco-British relations in the early Cold War era. It focuses on the two states’ cooperation in Middle Eastern defence, as well as their interactions with Egypt and Greece. Immediately after the Second World War, the Soviet Union and communism were accepted as common threats directed against Turkey, Greece, Britain, the entire Western camp and a broad range of Middle Eastern countries. Washington and London were in search of alliances with regional actors; however, due to the anti-Western attitudes of Egypt in particular, and the anti-Israeli attitudes of the Arabic realm in general, the West was not satisfied with the defence system established in the region. In regard to the relations between the four abovementioned states, while Turkey and Britain joined forces against the Egyptian cause in the Suez issue and the Greek cause on the Cyprus issue, Greece and Egypt sided with each other against the British positions.     

WESTERN APPROACHES TO THE MIDDLE EAST (REVIEW ARTICLE)

This article considers five books about western countries' actions and policies in the Middle East over the twentieth century and beyond. The British with their mandates in Iraq, Palestine and Jordan, and the French in Syria and Lebanon, employed similar techniques. The role of the British in Palestine comes in for a deal of criticism By the time the Americans took over the dominant role in the region, the policy challenge was rather different. But the mistakes the Americans made were just as serious and the lessons of history were too often ignored.     

The Syrian refugees—left to their fate

ABSTRACT

The war in Syria led to one of the worst refugee crises experienced by the Middle East in recent decades. Its scope is unprecedented and has far-reaching implications not only for Syria or what remains of it, but for the receiving countries as well. In some cases, such as Lebanon or Jordan, the mass of newcomers may have an unsettling and disruptive effect on the demography of their host country. Syrian Refugees who found shelter in neighbouring countries may be able to return home or, alternatively, they may be able to be absorbed relatively easily in their current places of residence. With regard to the refugees in Europe, it is doubtful that they will ever return to their homeland, and, in any case, the Syrian regime is not at all interested in their return. Thus, for many more years even after the war in Syria ends, the problem of the refugees will undoubtedly remain complex, unresolved and an enduring burden on the host countries.

Abbreviation: EU: European Union; ISIS: the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria; PPS: the Syrian National Party; SNC: Syrian National Council; UN: United Nations; UNCHR: the UN High commisioner for Refugees     

IS THIS RUSSIA’S MOMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

Sir Jeremy Greenstock, formerly British permanent representative to the UN, who has had long experience of dealing with Russia in the context of diplomacy, considers whether the current moment of Russian dominance in Syria and the Middle East, combined with the recent general disengagement of the western powers in the region, could be considered as marking the beginning of a general period of Russian hegemony in the Middle East. The article takes into account the global geopolitical situation, the recent history of Russia and the Middle East, the consequences of western intervention in Iraq, and the motivations of the Russian government particularly in view of its recent engagement in Ukraine.     

The career of Ozdemir: a Turkish bid for northern Iraq, 1921–1923

From 1921 to 1923, Turkey and the United Kingdom contended for control of the Vilayet of Mosul, now known as northern Iraq. The United Kingdom was the mandatory power in Iraq at that time. Although this crisis, which is known as the Mosul affair, was settled in 1925 in favour of Iraq, Turkey never totally relinquished its historical claim to this strategically important border region. Turkey's persistent claim to the area, and the fact that the region is predominantly inhabited by Kurds whose nationalism shows no signs of waning, make northern Iraq a potentially destabilizing factor in the region. The article will discuss the historical roots of Mosul frontier affairs, which is a legacy of colonialism in the Middle East. This international conflict has many dimensions, but the article will confine itself to the study of the distinguished career of Ali Shafiq, also known as Ozdemir, a Turkish statesman and the architect of Turkish policy during the Mosul affair. This is, to a large extent, a political history of the conflict and the author utilizes British and Turkish archival material and contemporary memoirs, journals, and relevant secondary sources in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, and English.     

The Turkish Republic's Jihad? Religious symbols,terminology and ceremonies in Turkey during the Korean War 1950–1953

On 25 July 1950, a month after the beginning of the Korean War, the newly elected Democratic Party (DP) in Turkey announced that a brigade would be sent to assist South Korea as part of the UN mission led by the United States. The main argument of this article is that although the DP regime is considered a secular and Kemalist one, the state continued the Ottoman tradition and practice of using Islam to gain support for the war and to mobilize the Turkish nation. To do so, the article will show the similarity of both the means and the content of religious propaganda used in the Korean War to those used in the Ottoman jihad in the First World War. This article suggests that parts of the public understood the war as a religious conflict and not just as an ideological one thus indicating the success of the religious messages and their efficiency.     

Opposition visions for preserving Syria’s ethnic-sectarian mosaic

The excessive violence that has spread across virtually all of Syria since the 2011 uprising against the regime of Bashar al-Asad has so far prevented a serious debate about feasible solutions. Together with internal power struggles and the intervention of external actors, ideational factors and identity construction are playing a key role in shaping the dynamics of the Syrian conflict. Fear of exclusion in a future order dominated by radical Islamist forces is keeping the minority groups and some secularists close to the regime. However, there are also grounds for cautious optimism: as this paper shows, most actors from the moderate opposition acknowledge the need to take the minorities’ fears seriously and to provide them with guarantees of participation in a future political order, while stopping short of the option of a power-sharing arrangement between community representatives.     

Anti-Iraq War Protests in Turkey: Global Networks,Coalitions, and Context

This article examines how Turkish citizens participated in protests against the Iraq War and why civil society organizations were able to mobilize tens of thousands of people across the country despite the institutional weakness of the Turkish peace movement. The Iraq War case is important in that its scale and level of protest mobilization were unprecedented based on any other anti-war protests in Turkey. Using content analysis of newspaper reports of anti-Iraq War protest events, this article maps the patterns and forms of protest against the Iraq War and argues for the importance of global networks, coalitions among organizations, and political context for protest mobilization.