Municipal forecasting practice: “demand” and “supply” side perspectives

Findings from a nationwide survey of Government Finance Officers Association members confirm previous research that indicates an over reliance on judgmental as opposed to quantitative forecast methods, for both revenue and expenditures. While incumbents in larger cities, and with advanced degrees, evidence greater forecast training than their small-city, baccalaureate-only counterparts, this differentiation fails to materialize in forecast practice. MPA's are at a disadvantage relative to MBA's In regression and econometrics. Content analysis of leading public administration texts suggests why utilization may be retarded in practice: forecasting, like many other “nuts and bolts” areas in public financial management, is displaced by continued treatment of budget format, budget theory, and public finance. This lends credence to recent reports of increasing practitioner dissatisfaction with academic-based consulting and training in the field, and raises questions about the need for NASPAA to exercise greater control with regard to the public financial management curriculum.     

What Does the “Terrorist” Label Really Do? Measuring and Explaining the Effects of the “Terrorist” and “Islamist” Categories

Many scholars and practitioners claim that labeling groups or individuals as “terrorists” does not simply describe them but also shapes public attitudes, due to the label's important normative and political charge. Yet is there such a “terrorist label effect”? In view of surprisingly scant evidence, the present article evaluates whether or not the terrorist label—as well as the “Islamist” one—really impacts both the audience's perception of the security environment and its security policy preferences, and if yes, how and why. To do so, the article implements a randomized-controlled vignette experiment where participants (N = 481) first read one out of three press articles, each depicting a street shooting in the exact same way but labeling the author of the violence with a different category (“terrorist”/“shooter”/“Islamist”). Participants were then asked to report on both their perceptions and their policy preferences. This design reveals very strong effects of both the “terrorist” and “Islamist” categories on each dimension. These effects are analyzed through the lenses of social and cognitive psychology, in a way that interrogates the use of the terrorist category in society, the conflation of Islamism with terrorism, and the press and policymakers' lexical choices when reporting on political violence.     

Conceptualizing “Post-Conflict Reconstruction” and “Ongoing Conflict Reconstruction” of Failed States

In recent decades, the world has seen many internal violent conflicts that dramatically affect the social, economic, and political conditions of human geographies at multiple spatial scales, from the national level to the scale of individual cities and communities. Geography, as a multidimensional discipline, should be in a unique position to contribute to understanding of such conflicts and of post-conflict geographies and their futures in terms of reconstruction and rebuilding. However, in the geography literature, there is little attention given to post-conflict human geographies and their related subjects. At present, there are many emerging post-conflict geographies, which would greatly benefit from theoretical and practical knowledge to guide their future. This paper aims to contribute to building a foundation for developing knowledge on reconstruction of post-conflict and ongoing conflict human geographies. Based on the existing multidisciplinary bodies of knowledge on post-conflict reconstruction, this paper develops a new conceptual framework for post-conflict reconstruction and for ongoing conflict reconstruction as a more adequate way to understand and plan reconstruction in the face of ongoing conflict and offers new insights for the reconstruction agenda.     

Mobility among Pentecostal pastors and migratory “miracles”

Taking into account space and identity in the movements of transnational religious actors, this article is engaged in reframing and reinterpreting experience by investigating the articulation of migratory and religious experiences as expressed by the pastors of four different Brussels-based Pentecostal congregations. The analysis of pastors' narratives, as they reassess the circumstances that brought them from Sub-Saharan Africa or Latin America to Belgium, reveals an interwoven process of geographical shifts and “divine” actions: this offers us an opportunity to consider an implied double process of mobility and religion. On the one hand, we can see how Pentecostalism transforms and subverts their immigrant experience by allowing for an alternate narrative of this experience. On the other hand, we can analyse the effect of the migratory experience on the discourse and religious practices in the new social context, more particularly through the identification of such “Children of God” with missionary duties towards their fellow immigrants. An analysis of the pastors' narratives also offers a particularly relevant opportunity to question the tensions between processes of endogenous identification (missionaries elected by God and working towards the extension of his “kingdom”) and exogenous assignment, repeated associations of otherness and strangeness, and the stigma coupled with pejorative characterizations of the “migrant”.     

Breaking New Ground in Pagan” and “Muslim” West Africa

Nehemia Levtzion had a long and distinguished career as an interpreter of Islam in West Africa, and some of his earliest contributions have the greatest value. This article explores first, the continuing significance of Muslims and Chiefs in West Africa (1968), an analysis of communities and states set in the “pagan” Middle Belt of Ghana, and second, a forgery of Arabic documents with important political implications for the jihad and state of Hamdullahi created in the Middle Delta of Mali, in “A Seventeenth Century Chronicle of Ibn al-Mukhtar” (1971).     

Ethno-racial identity (politics) by law: “Fraud” and “choice”

Following an introduction to the changes in how ethno-racial identity is conceptualized in the social sciences and humanities by the destabilization of categorical frameworks, the author looks at how law reacts to these discussions and paradigm shifts, and argues that legal and administrative approaches face severe linguistic and conceptual limitations by operating within a “choice” and “fraud” binary. The article then questions if the free choice of identity exists as a principle of international minority protection law, a legal field that arguably represents a global political and ethical consensus. The author makes two claims. First, according to the basic tenet of legal logic, a proper right to free choice of identity allowing people to opt out of racial, ethnic, or national (minority) communities would necessitate the freedom to opt in to the majority or to any chosen group. The second claim, however, is that international law would not actually construct an approach to opting in. Thus, the right to free choice of identity is not an autonomous, sui generis right under international law.     

“Purity of Arms,” “Preemptive War,” and “Selective Targeting” in the Context of Terrorism: General,Conceptual, and Legal Analyses

Selective targeting (or targeted killing) of terrorist leaders is a legitimate mode of operation and part of a state's counterterrorism, anticipatory, self-defense activities that are designed to prevent the continuation of terrorism. Paradoxically, this counterterrorism measure is the best way of preserving the military ethical conventions of “purity of arms.” The concept refers to moral rules advocating the exercise of restraint and compassion in the course of a confrontation with the enemy. The “purity of arms” concept is debated extensively in democracies. Selective targeting of terrorist activists is a measure designed to hurt the real enemy while minimizing civilian casualties. Terrorist leaders and planners are targeted and an attempt is made, trying to avoid so far as possible, “collateral damage” that often accompanies any general military offensive. Customary international law permits targeting the enemy, provided that the criteria of necessity and proportionality of the attack are maintained. The relationship between the threat of terrorist attacks and the actual attacks carried out is shown in this study. The results contribute to reinforcing the legality of selective targeting as a preemptive mode of operation because they show that one should relate to a threat of an attack as to an imminent danger.     

Theoretical and operational challenges of “high-reliability organizations”: air-traffic control and aircraft carriers

This is an empirical and theoretical examination of high reliability organizations. The empirical referents are the U.S. Navy's nuclear aircraft carriers and the air traffic control system of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration. Three modes of organizational behavior are observed ranging from routine or bureaucratic to high-tempo to emergency. Each mode has distinctive authority patterns, communications pathways and leadership perspectives.

Since 1984, an interdisciplinary group of scholars at Berkeley has been involved in making observations of and theorizing about “high reliability organizations” (HROs), which operate technical systems that are very beneficial, costly, and hazardous. Major operational errors in these organizations are likely to produce catastrophic consequences; therefore, HROs take on the dual goals of sustaining delivery at maximum capacity and operating in nearly error-free fashion. They are so effective that the probability of serious error is very low.

Other kinds of organizations systematically use trial-and-error learning. HROs, however, have less confidence in this process for conducting hazardous operations, because their next error may be their last trial.

This paper draws on experience with two of the Navy's nuclear aircraft carriers and the Federal Aviation Administration's air-traffic control system. Current theories derive primarily from studies of “failure-tolerant,” trial-and-error operating bureaucracies. Is this literature a sure guide to HROs? Do the phenomena challenge contemporary thinking about complex organizations? “High-reliability” operations reveal a range of theoretical (and operational) surprises. The remainder of this discussion explores a single dimension of this theoretical arena.     

The “Orange revolution” and the “sacred” birth of a civic-republican Ukrainian nation

The article analyzes the “sacred” dimension of the Ukrainian “Orange revolution”, its festive or carnivalesque quality, and properties of a communal ritual. The author argues that Ukrainian citizens who protested against the stolen elections in Kyiv found themselves in the liminoid situation of temporary egalitarian utopianism. This situation resulted in the emergence of communitas, and engendered a powerful feeling of the birth of a civic-republican Ukrainian nation. The festive nature of the “Orange revolution”, sanctioned by the overwhelming confidence in fighting for the rightful democratic cause, reinforced the impression of renewing the society along Western liberal democratic patterns.     

Russkii Obraz and the politics of “managed nationalism”

This article examines the rise of Russkii Obraz, a Russian ultranationalist organization whose leaders cultivated a neo-fascist ideology and collaborated with skinhead gangs. Despite its extremism, Russkii Obraz played an important role in the Kremlin's “managed nationalism,” a set of measures to manipulate the nationalist sector of the political arena. During 2008–2009, Russkii Obraz collaborated closely with pro-Kremlin youth organizations and enjoyed privileged access to Russia's tightly controlled public sphere. This article argues that the key to Russkii Obraz’s brief ascendancy was its duality, its capacity to project moderation in public and extremism in private. For several years, this duality enabled Russkii Obraz to participate in public life while building a support base in the skinhead subculture. But the two projects collided when the security organs exposed Russkii Obraz’s links to an ultranationalist death-squad. Nevertheless, official indulgence of Russkii Obraz cannot be attributed merely to ignorance of its violent potential. This indulgence also reflected the fact that it was precisely those at the neo-fascist limits of the political spectrum who were most willing to collaborate in the regime's efforts to suppress demands for democratization.     

State Weakness and “Vacuum of Power” in Lebanon

The conventional wisdom is that weak and failed states are at great risk of becoming havens for transnational terrorist and guerilla groups. The assumption is that lack of enforcement capabilities enables militant organizations to infiltrate and fill the “vacuum of power” that is created in the absence of a strong state. This article argues, though, that this is only one of the ways in which weak states are attractive to militant groups. It explores the various mechanisms through which the vacuum of power translates into opportunities for such groups. These mechanisms include the easiness of acquiring support and recruitment within refugees or marginalized populations; the ability of the violent non-state transnational organization to establish a “surrogate state” in supplying institutions and services that enhance its public appeal; the relations between civil or communal conflict and the success of such groups; and the use of transnational violent groups as proxies for other states. Using the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Hezbollah in Lebanon as the primary cases, as well as two mini-cases from Central America and Africa, the paper illustrates the working of these mechanisms and contributes to our understanding of the relations between state weakness and transnational violent non-state organizations.     

“Islamic cafés” and “Sharia dating:” Muslim youth,spaces of sociability,and partner relationships in Bosnia-Herzegovina

The paper explores forms of sociability and partner relationships among pious young Muslims in Sarajevo with a focus on the emic concepts of Islamic cafés (hospitality establishments perceived to operate according to Islamic moral principles) and Sharia dating (premarital relationships perceived to be sanctioned by Sharia). It draws on 10 months of ethnographic fieldwork conducted in different spaces of Islamic worship, learning, and sociability. This paper places the renewed interest in Islam within the context of a post-Dayton Bosnia characterized by complex and impractical government structures, lingering post-war grievances, and a brutal transition to a neoliberal capitalist economy. Although it acknowledges the continuing relevance of Islam as a resource for Bosniak nation building, it suggests treating the Muslim faith community as overlapping but distinct from the Bosniak community. By focusing on gendered interaction and partner-seeking strategies, this paper explores how young members of this faith community contextually negotiate their Islamic beliefs with mainstream local expectations of conventional behavior. The paper argues that believers’ varying responses to this predicament can be observed as an example of the localization of Islam, but they do not constitute a return to local, traditional gender roles and marriage practices, nor are they an introduction of foreign cultural patterns.     

Hungary's “anti-capitalist” far-right: Jobbik and the Hungarian Guard

The study analyzed whether the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the establishment of succeeding mono-national states was the expression of “longing” of mass proportions on the part of the nationalities within respective federal units. Using the data from two pan-Yugoslav surveys from the period preceding the dissolution, results were obtained that indicated a very limited support for this hypothesis. More specifically, results indicated that support for emancipation was rather weak, among youth in 1986 and even among the adult population in 1990, although some significant mean differences between the federal units and between major nationalities within them were evident. Specifically, opinions favoring independence were detected among Kosovo Albanians and later among Slovenians in Slovenia. In addition, findings also indicated that those with higher socioeconomic status were not more inclined toward independence. Results thus pointed more towards the idea that the dissolution was indeed instigated by a small group of “political entrepreneurs” not captured by the survey data.     

African biomedical scientists and the promises of “big science”

Abstract

An ongoing genomic revolution in biology has exponentially increased the rate, possibilities, scope and cost of biological research. Infectious disease genomics are often justified by the potential they have to ameliorate Africa’s disease burden. The molecular biology revolution that preceded genomic science widened the gap between the skill sets of many African biologists and their contemporaries elsewhere. Gap closure through genomics and the application of genomic data to health problems requires participation of, and leadership from, African scientists. However, few African scientists participate in genomics, and providing biological samples is their predominant contribution. Health-related applications are emerging from genomic activity for some infectious diseases that are endemic in Africa but not for many others. This article argues that the arrival of next-generation diagnostics, surveillance tools, drugs and vaccines could be accelerated by improving the nature and degree of participation of African scientists in genomic and post-genomic inquiry.     

Airlines and Empires: Great Britain and the “Scramble for Africa,” 1919–1939

This study examines the dynamics of female African immigration and settlement in the United States and discusses the research and policy implications for these processes. It highlights a significant surge in female immigration from African compared to non-African countries in recent years. This surge is driven by female immigration from Africa's most populous countries, from countries affected by civil conflicts, and from English-speaking countries in the region. African women are also more likely to arrive as unmarried singles than other female immigrants. In addition, they have the highest prevalence of bachelor's, master's, and doctorate degrees among women in the US. African females are also about twice more likely to be enrolled in US educational institutions compared to other women. Those in the labor force are more likely to work as nursing professionals than in technical occupational groups such as engineering and computing. The study concludes by discussing the research and policy implications of these findings for countries in the developing world.     

Ethnic Discrimination and the Discourse of “Indigenization”: The Regional Regime, “Indigenous Majority” and Ethnic Minorities in Krasnodar Krai in Russia

King Alexander's dictatorship in Yugoslavia (proclaimed in January 1929) was an expression of a real political need for consolidation in the country; however, in essence, it was an autocratic and repressive regime. More decisive moves toward a return of democracy did not occur, even later, after the replacement of his regime in June 1935. The political methods in the internal political life followed the pattern from the first half of the 1930s to the very eve of World War II. Such a situation also defined the relationship between the Slovenes and Yugoslavia. Slovene politics continued to look at the state from two angles – a unitary/centralist angle on the one hand and an autonomist/federalist angle on the other. Both camps (as well as other Yugoslav political players), however, failed to create an environment that would enable truly democratic compromises. The state was stuck at a “standstill,” but in spite of all its flaws, in the view of the Slovene political groups it represented the most suitable environment for the political and national life of Slovenes. Any serious political calculations that would go beyond this framework hardly existed.