DOES MARRIAGE REDUCE CRIME? A COUNTERFACTUAL APPROACH TO WITHIN‐INDIVIDUAL CAUSAL EFFECTS*

Although marriage is associated with a plethora of adult outcomes, its causal status remains controversial in the absence of experimental evidence. We address this problem by introducing a counterfactual life‐course approach that applies inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to yearly longitudinal data on marriage, crime, and shared covariates in a sample of 500 high‐risk boys followed prospectively from adolescence to age 32. The data consist of criminal histories and death records for all 500 men plus personal interviews, using a life‐history calendar, with a stratified subsample of 52 men followed to age 70. These data are linked to an extensive battery of individual and family background measures gathered from childhood to age 17 — before entry into marriage. Applying IPTW to multiple specifications that also incorporate extensive time‐varying covariates in adulthood, being married is associated with an average reduction of approximately 35 percent in the odds of crime compared to nonmarried states for the same man. These results are robust, supporting the inference that states of marriage causally inhibit crime over the life course.     

“…everywhere she went I had to tag along beside her”: Family,life course,and everyday mobility in England since the 1940s

Mobility is one of the most important constituents of everyday life, yet it is rarely studied historically and we know little of how it relates to changing family and life course constraints. Using data drawn from oral life histories, this article examines changes in everyday mobility over the past 60 years focusing both on changes over the life course and on the constraints imposed by family structures. We argue that, like residential migration, daily mobility has been closely related to the life course, with women especially affected by the constraints of motherhood and marriage. However, there is evidence that such constraints have changed over time, and that some older people today enjoy more mobility than they did at earlier life stages. We also argue that the independent mobility of children was closely related to the family structure in which they were situated, but that these constraints have changed much less over the past 60 years. The oral testimonies examined also highlight the variability of mobility experiences and the role of the individual in fashioning mobility behavior.     

EARLY LIFE RISKS,ANTISOCIAL TENDENCIES,AND PRETEEN DELINQUENCY

Early age‐of‐onset delinquency and substance use confer a major risk for continued criminality, alcohol and drug abuse, and other serious difficulties throughout the life course. Our objective is to examine the developmental roots of preteen delinquency and substance use. By using nationally representative longitudinal data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (N= 13,221), we examine the influence of early childhood developmental and family risks on latent pathways of antisocial tendencies from 3 to 7 years of age, and the influence of those pathways on property crime and substance use by 11 years of age. We identified a normative, nonantisocial pathway; a pathway marked by oppositional behavior and fighting; a pathway marked by impulsivity and inattention; and a rare pathway characterized by a wide range of antisocial tendencies. Children with developmental and family risks that emerged by 3 years of age—specifically difficult infant temperament, low cognitive ability, weak parental closeness, and disadvantaged family background—face increased odds of antisocial tendencies. Minimal overlap is found between the risk factors for early antisocial tendencies and those for preteen delinquency. Children on an antisocial pathway are more likely to engage in preteen delinquency and substance use by 11 years of age even after accounting for early life risk factors.     

AGE,CRIMINAL CAREERS,AND POPULATION HETEROGENEITY: SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A NONPARAMETRIC,MIXED POISSON MODEL*

This article addresses three issues that are central to the criminal career debate. First, is the life course of individual offending patterns marked by distinctive periods of quiescence? Second, at the level of the individual, do offending rates vary systematically with age? In particular, is the age-crime curve single peaked or flat? Third, are chronic offenders different from less active offenders? Do offenders themselves differ in systematic ways? Using a new approach to the analysis of individual criminal careers—based on nested, mixed Poisson models in which the mixing distribution is estimated nonparametrically—we analyze a panel data set that tracks a sample of males for more than 20 years. Our results provide empirical evidence in support of some features of criminal propensity theory and some in support of conventional criminal careers theory. In support of latent-trait criminal propensity theory, the individual-level average offense rate (per unit of time) varies as a function of observable individual-level characteristics and unobservable heterogeneity among individuals, and the age trajectory of the offense rate is generally single peaked rather than flat. On the other hand, in support of conventional criminal careers theory, models that incorporate a parameter that permits periods of active as well as inactive offending across age have greater explanatory power than those that do not. In addition, the nonparametric, discrete approximation to the population distribution of unobservable heterogeneity in the individual-level mean offense rate facilitates identification of four classes of offenders—nonoffenders as well as individual-level characteristics that are unique to each group. Problems of theoretical explanation and empirical generalizability of these results are described.     

Women between a new marriage and an independent position: Rural widows in Bohemia in the first half of the nineteenth century

This article discusses the position of widowed rural women in early 19th-century Bohemia. It focuses on women who had been married to full peasant farmers, holders of smaller farmsteads or cottagers. The data collected are based on the method of family reconstruction, which made it possible to carry out an in-depth examination of the background of individual widows as well as of the factors which influenced the widows' future. Results show that in deciding whether to remarry, widows were not determined only by economic or demographic circumstances (their age). Rather, the decision depended on specific life experience of each widow. One of the crucial factors was whether a widow was entitled to managing the farmstead of her late husband and also the number and age of children in the family. Young widows under 35 remarried in 88% of the cases, which was only natural since they did not have enough time to fulfil their maternal needs — 62% of women under 35 had either no child or only one when they became widowed. By contrast, the majority of older widows (61% of widows aged 35–50) decided to manage the farm by themselves, since by entering into a new marriage they would compromise the inheritance shares of their existing children.     

Women between a new marriage and an independent position: Rural widows in Bohemia in the first half of the nineteenth century

This article discusses the position of widowed rural women in early 19th-century Bohemia. It focuses on women who had been married to full peasant farmers, holders of smaller farmsteads or cottagers. The data collected are based on the method of family reconstruction, which made it possible to carry out an in-depth examination of the background of individual widows as well as of the factors which influenced the widows' future. Results show that in deciding whether to remarry, widows were not determined only by economic or demographic circumstances (their age). Rather, the decision depended on specific life experience of each widow. One of the crucial factors was whether a widow was entitled to managing the farmstead of her late husband and also the number and age of children in the family. Young widows under 35 remarried in 88% of the cases, which was only natural since they did not have enough time to fulfil their maternal needs — 62% of women under 35 had either no child or only one when they became widowed. By contrast, the majority of older widows (61% of widows aged 35–50) decided to manage the farm by themselves, since by entering into a new marriage they would compromise the inheritance shares of their existing children.     

Introduction: disability,partnership, and family across time and space

ABSTRACT

Notions of family life and romantic partnership, like notions of disability, have been culturally constructed and socially produced over historical time, and our understandings of these notions are being continually challenged and re-negotiated across time and space. Policies, institutions, and cultural practices across the globe have brought about changes to the construction of the family and to the rights and inclusion of disabled people in private and public life. This special issue brings together a collection of studies from different countries and time periods to explore the interplay between disability, romantic partnerships, and family life across the individual lifetime and between generations. With this interdisciplinary collection, we seek to merge disability research and research on family and partnerships through a life course lens. This offers unique insights and opportunities to interconnect historical and cultural location and changing social institutions with individual and family experiences. This introduction presents the eight studies in the collection and discusses them within a life course frame that views disabled people’s roles as partners, spouses, and members of a family. In so doing, it engages in an analysis of (dis)similarities concerning how family dynamics, romantic relationships, and disability have developed over time and in different spaces.     

Naming for kin and the development of modern family structures: An analysis of a rural region in the netherlands in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries

It is generally assumed that the conjugal family—the family that lived independently from extended kin—came into existence in the Netherlands relatively early, and that a new attitude towards children, characterized by an emphasis on the individuality of the child, developed at more or less the same time. To test whether this more narrow range of kin and the stronger emphasis on the individuality of the child translated itself also in a deviation from the traditional practice of naming newborn children for kin, the article analyzes naming patterns in a rural area of the Netherlands during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The conclusion is that the rise of the conjugal family and the new attitude that recognized the child as an autonomous individual had no impact on the degree of naming for kin. In a more general sense, the findings raise doubts about the idea that changes in family structures and mentality directly express themselves in changes in naming practices.     

Naming for kin and the development of modern family structures

It is generally assumed that the conjugal family—the family that lived independently from extended kin—came into existence in the Netherlands relatively early, and that a new attitude towards children, characterized by an emphasis on the individuality of the child, developed at more or less the same time. To test whether this more narrow range of kin and the stronger emphasis on the individuality of the child translated itself also in a deviation from the traditional practice of naming newborn children for kin, the article analyzes naming patterns in a rural area of the Netherlands during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The conclusion is that the rise of the conjugal family and the new attitude that recognized the child as an autonomous individual had no impact on the degree of naming for kin. In a more general sense, the findings raise doubts about the idea that changes in family structures and mentality directly express themselves in changes in naming practices.     

Family biography,fertility and memory-making in an AIDS-affected South African site

The critical challenges of AIDS and poverty in post-apartheid South Africa impact the ways in which memories are articulated and family and fertility histories ultimately constructed. This article considers three life histories written in the course of ethnographic work on women's childbearing conducted intermittently between 1998 and 2014, and typical of other histories in the same peri-urban locale. Personal accounts of a mother and her two daughters initially centre on domestic strife and adversity – and the family as a whole is represented as struggling and disunited. In the aftermath of the death of one of the daughters from AIDS in 2001, the memories and discourse are subtly reworked by the two women in ways that are meant to counteract stigma, reclaim dignity and defend the family. The paper focuses on reproductive dynamics and memory-making in a hardship-driven and AIDS-affected setting and on the ethnographer's endeavours in witnessing, interviewing and making sense of people's ‘intent’ and ‘the urge to forget, to go on living’.     

Parenting and Safety Program for System-Involved Female Survivors of Intimate Partner Violence: A Qualitative Follow-up Study

This article reports findings from a qualitative follow-up investigation of a mandated parenting and safety program for system-involved female IPV survivors. Participants were contacted 12 months or more after program completion and invited to participate in individual interviews. The interviews focused on the longer-term life changes survivors attributed to the program. Data were collected from 38 survivors. Qualitative analysis determined 4 key themes: relationship changes (e.g., most women were no longer with abusive partners), parenting changes (e.g., improved communication and discipline strategies), personal life changes (e.g., improved help-seeking and self-esteem), and new or ongoing challenges (e.g., financial stress). Overall, findings suggest that tailored, mandated programming — when positive and empowering — may lead to some longer-term beneficial outcomes.     

THE ROLE OF TURNING POINTS IN ESTABLISHING BASELINE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PEOPLE IN DEVELOPMENTAL AND LIFE‐COURSE CRIMINOLOGY

Turning points, between‐person differences, and within‐person changes have all been linked to desistance from crime. Nevertheless, the means through which between‐person differences are frequently captured in life‐course criminology makes them intertwined with, and perhaps confounded by, turning points in life. We propose that a new way of capturing the between‐person effect—the baseline between‐person difference—could benefit theoretically informed tests of developmental and life‐course issues in criminology. Because they occur at one time point immediately preceding a turning point in life, we demonstrate that baseline between‐person differences establish meaningful theoretical connections to behavior and the way people change over time. By using panel data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, we estimate models capturing within‐person change and baseline between‐person differences in social bonds (family support) and differential association (peer criminality) at the time of release from prison. The results demonstrate that baseline levels of family support protect people from postrelease substance use but not from crime. Baseline between‐person differences and within‐person changes in peer criminality, however, are robustly related to crime and substance use. Collectively, baseline between‐person differences seem critical for behavior and within‐person change over time, and the results carry implications for reentry‐based policy as well as for theory testing in developmental criminology more broadly.     

Development of impulsivity and risk‐seeking: Implications for the dimensionality and stability of self‐control*

In Gottfredson and Hirschi's self‐control theory, introduced in 1990, they contend that self‐control is a unidimensional construct that develops early in childhood and remains stable throughout the life span. According to findings reported in recent research, however, these arguments are now being challenged, with scholars pointing to ways in which self‐control may be multidimensional in nature and may change beyond the period of alleged stabilization. In this study, we draw on Steinberg's dual systems model, introduced in 2008, to consider this issue further. We examine that model's two key elements of low self‐control—risk‐seeking and impulsivity—to determine whether they are empirically distinguishable from one another and have differing developmental trajectories from childhood to early adulthood. We also consider the consequences of changes in risk‐seeking and impulsivity for within‐individual changes in crime. We examine these issues with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) for individuals from 10 to 30 years old. The results of our analyses show support for a multidimensional and dynamic conception of self‐control—from age 10 to age 30, risk‐seeking and impulsivity are empirically distinct and develop in divergent ways that are consistent with the dual systems model. Changes in risk‐seeking and impulsivity also affect changes in crime, but their effects vary with age and changes in the other element. We discuss these findings and their implications for self‐control and the development of life‐course criminology.     

The 'Best Interests of the Child' and Parental Separation: on the 'Civilizing of Parents'

The concept of the 'best interests of the child' is both pivotal in family law and yet essentially contested. This paper reflects on the concept's position within a number of longer-term histories – of the jurisprudence surrounding child custody, of the social construction of childhood, and of the emotional constitution of family life more broadly. The turn to a co-parenting model from the 1970s onwards and the rise of the concept of the 'civilized divorce' is analysed by drawing on Norbert Elias's analysis of 'processes of civilization' in Western social life. The paper argues that the post-separation co-parenting model is only partially explained as the outcome of political manoeuvring by particular social and professional groups; it should also be understood as part of longer-term trends in family life, emotional management, and the socio-legal construction of childhood, as part of the on-going 'civilizing of parents'.     

HOW THE U.S. PRISON BOOM HAS CHANGED THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRISON POPULATION

This article provides a demographic exposition of the changes in the U.S prison population during the period of mass incarceration that began in the late twentieth century. By drawing on data from the Survey of Inmates in State Correctional Facilities (1974–2004) for inmates 17–72 years of age (N = 336), we show that the age distribution shifted upward dramatically: Only 16 percent of the state prison population was 40 years old or older in 1974; by 2004, this percentage had doubled to 33 percent with the median age of prisoners rising from 27 to 34 years old. By using an estimable function approach, we find that the change in the age distribution of the prison population is primarily a cohort effect that is driven by the “enhanced” penal careers of the cohorts who hit young adulthood—the prime age of both crime and incarceration—when substance use was at its peak. Period‐specific factors (e.g., proclivity for punishment and incidence of offense) do matter, but they seem to play out more across the life cycles of persons most affected in young adulthood (cohort effects) than across all age groups at one point in time (period effects).     

Women’s age at last childbearing and its determinants: a case study of Antwerp (Flanders,Belgium) on the basis of the multi-source COR* historical sample

Declines in the age at last childbearing in the first demographic transition reflected conscious changes in fertility behaviour during that period, in particular efforts to limit the total number of children. Such fertility limitation behaviour was the net result of ‘cultural causal factors’ on the one hand and ‘structural and economic causal factors’ on the other hand. This paper analyses the evolution of women’s age at last childbearing by reconstructing women’s life histories based on data from the multi-source COR* historical sample for Antwerp in the period 1846–1920. The paper also assesses the causes of this evolution through a number of theoretically grounded structural/economic, cultural and life course determinants, placing these concepts in a macro-micro framework of methodological individualism. For this purpose, in the first place a Kaplan-Meier analysis is applied to 10-year birth cohorts; a proportional hazard model is also applied to three different birth cohorts (mothers born before 1840; born in the period 1840–1859; and born after 1860); and a range of cultural and life course determinants are analysed, including women’s literacy status, marriage witness characteristics, the seasonality of marriages and births, and birth histories. The analysis confirms the decline in the age at last childbearing especially in the late cohort, and also highlights inter-cohort differences caused by cultural and life course determinants.     

PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS ACROSS THE LIFE SPAN*

Recent advances and debates surrounding general and developmental as well as static and dynamic theories of crime can be traced to the 1986 National Academy of Science's Report on criminal careers and the discussion it generated. A key point of contention has been regarding the interpretation of the age–crime curve. According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects decreasing individual offending frequency (λ) after the peak. Blumstein et al. (1986) claimed that the decline in the aggregate age–crime curve also could be attributable to the termination of criminal careers, and the average value of l could stay constant (or increase with age) for those offenders who remain active after that peak. Using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study—including information on criminal convictions across 60 years of almost 5,000 persons convicted in the Netherlands—and applying a two-part growth model that explicitly distinguishes between participation and frequency, the study outlined in this article assessed the participation–frequency debate. Results suggest that the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects both decreasing individual offending participation and frequency after the peak, that the probabilities of participation and frequency are significantly related at the individual level, and that sex and marriage influence both participation and frequency.     

WHEN JAIL FAILS: AMENDING THE ASFA TO REDUCE ITS NEGATIVE IMPACT ON CHILDREN OF INCARCERATED PARENTS

The Adoption and Safe Families Act (ASFA) requires states begin termination proceedings when a child resides in foster care for fifteen out of the last twenty‐two months. Many states interpret this to mean that an incarcerated parent is unfit when they leave their child in foster care just because they are separated from their children. Parents and children can still have meaningful relationships even when separated. Thus, parental unfitness should depend on many factors such as the relationship with the child, age of the child, and ability to provide support for the child—not just the time spent away from the child. This Note advocates for the amendment of ASFA to include factors courts should consider when terminating the parental rights of incarcerated parents and encouraged states to focus not on a time frame for termination, but rather consideration of circumstances relevant to each individual family. States should incorporate the factors into their state laws. Further, states should actively work with prisoners and their children to help maintain contact and if possible, reunify families after incarcerations. These services will help prevent the need for termination after a parent completes their sentence and will help to reduce recidivism.     

A NOT SO HAPPY BIRTHDAY: THE FOSTER YOUTH TRANSITION FROM ADOLESCENCE INTO ADULTHOOD

Every year close to 25,000 youth age out of our foster care system; without the anchor of a family, former foster youth disproportionately join the ranks of the homeless, incarcerated, and unemployed. While the average age of financial independence in America is twenty‐six years of age, we presume that foster youth can somehow attain financial and emotional independence by age eighteen. Instead, these adolescents are woefully unprepared for independent adult life, and when they falter, too often no one is there to provide support or guidance. As a result, former foster youth are ten times more likely to be arrested than youth of the same age, race, and sex and one in four youth who age out of foster care will end up in jail within the first two years after leaving care. This article will discuss strategies for changing these disheartening outcomes for transitioning foster youth, including breaking down our silos and collectively taking charge of the lives of children in our care; keeping a watchful eye on data and outcomes and using that information to guide our actions; ensuring that the voices of youth are an ever‐present part of decisions and processes that will chart their future; and educating ourselves about best practices and new approaches. This article also discusses new opportunities that now exist to support foster youth as they move into adulthood, including new federal legislation that—for the first time—will allow states to support foster youth beyond age eighteen. Finally, this article provides a backdrop for this Special Issue and summarizes the insightful articles and innovative thinking contained herein.     

The Family And Family Relationships Under Socialism

As the primary cell of society, the family changes and develops with it, reflecting in one way or another the character and social consequences of the changes that occur in society. In turn, the changes that take place in the family, and in marital-family relationships as a whole, influence social life and social psychology. We examine below certain aspects of the relationship between the family and society under socialism.