The Mobility of Stolen Guns in Quebec

Research on crime guns has traditionally focused on the time-to-crime measure. This study shifts the focus to guns that entered the illegal firearm market through thefts. This subset of guns allows us to examine the same process and objective underlying the time-to-crime measure—that being the recovery process. Two new measures are proposed. The first, time-to-find, assesses the time span between a gun’s theft and seizure by police. The second, distance-to-recovery, introduces a spatial dimension to the crime gun repertoire by measuring the distance a firearm travels between its points of theft and seizure. Using a mix of national (Canada) and provincial (Quebec) data on crime guns, this study’s findings show that these two new measures are tapping into a unique phenomenon: whereas time-to-crime accounts for a gun’s complete lifecycle, time-to-find and distance-to-recovery reflect a gun’s criminal lifecycle. At the multivariate level, the most influential factor explaining both time-to-find and distance-to-recovery is the registration status of the gun. Non-registered crime guns took longer to find and traveled lengthier distances between the moments and points of theft and seizure. Our explanation for this is that non-registered guns may be stolen from sources that are more problematic to begin with and, thus, result in the gun’s transition toward a segment of the illegal market that is also more problematic and in demand than the pool of firearms represented by registered guns. This would embed the firearm more deeply into the illegal market, making it more difficult to retrieve and more likely to be dispersed across a wider geographical plane than guns which are registered to begin with.     

Characteristics and dynamics of illegal firearms markets: Implications for a supply-side enforcement strategy

The question of whether the illegal firearms market serving criminals and juveniles can be disrupted has been vigorously debated. Recent research suggests that illegal gun markets consist of both “point sources” (ongoing diversions through scofflaw dealers and trafficking rings) and “diffuse sources” (acquisitions through theft and informal, voluntary sales). To the extent that systematic gun trafficking is an important source of weapons for criminals and youth, focused regulatory and investigative resources may be effective in disrupting the illegal flow. In this research, we use data on traced firearms to examine one aspect of the illegal gun market that holds the most immediate promise for focused supply-side enforcement efforts—close-to-retail diversions. We find that almost one-third of traceable crime guns were recently diverted from legitimate retail firearms commerce and that nearly one-third had two or more indicators of gun trafficking involving dealers, purchasers, and possessors. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding illegal gun markets and for developing effective supply-side enforcement strategies.     

Crime Gun Risk Factors: Buyer,Seller, Firearm,and Transaction Characteristics Associated with Gun Trafficking and Criminal Gun Use

Objective

To better understand the workings of illicit gun markets by identifying the characteristics of buyers, sellers, firearms, and transactions that predict whether a gun is used in crime or obtained by an illegal possessor subsequent to purchase.

Methods

The study employed multivariate survival analysis utilizing data on nearly 72,000 guns sold in the Baltimore metropolitan area from 1994 through 1999 and subsequent recoveries of over 1,800 of those guns by police in Baltimore through early 2000.

Results

Adjusting for exposure time, guns sold in the Baltimore area had a 3.2 % chance of being recovered by police in Baltimore within 5 years. Guns were more likely to be recovered if: they were semiautomatic, medium to large caliber, easily concealable, and cheap; the buyers were black, young, female, living in or close to the city, and had previously purchased guns that were recovered by police; the dealer making the sale was, most notably, in or near the city and had made prior sales of crime guns; and the gun was purchased in a multiple gun transaction. The adoption of a law regulating secondhand gun sales in Maryland did not appear to affect the likelihood of a gun’s recovery, though the extent of the law’s enforcement is unclear.

Conclusions

Risk factors identified in this study could be used to guide gun trafficking investigations, regulation of gun dealers, and the development of prevention efforts for high-risk actors and areas. The results also provide some support for policies that regulate particular types of firearms and transactions. Limitations to the study and directions for future research are discussed.     

THE TRADE IN TOOLS: THE MARKET FOR ILLICIT GUNS IN HIGH‐RISK NETWORKS

Illegal guns circulating among high‐risk networks represent a threat to the security and well‐being of urban neighborhoods. Research findings reveal that illegal firearms are usually acquired through a variety of means, including theft and diversions from legitimate firearms commerce. Little is known, however, about the underground gun markets supplying the gang and drug networks responsible for a large share of gun violence in U.S. cities. In this article, we take a mixed‐methods approach, combining trace analyses of recovered handguns with ethnographic interviews of high‐risk gun users to develop new insights on the entry of guns into three criminal networks in Boston. We find that guns possessed by Boston gang members are of a different character compared with other crime guns; these guns are more likely to be older firearms originating from New Hampshire, Maine, and I‐95 southern states. The results of our qualitative research reveal that gang members and drug dealers pay inflated prices for handguns diverted by traffickers exploiting unregulated secondary market transactions, with significant premiums paid for high‐caliber semiautomatic pistols. Taken together, these findings provide an analytic portrait of the market for illicit guns among those most proximate to violence, yielding novel empirical, theoretical, and practical insights into the problem of criminal gun access.     

COLLECTIVE SECURITY AND THE OWNERSHIP OF FIREARMS FOR PROTECTION

This paper examines the hypothesis that people purchase firearms for protection when confidence in collective institutions of justice and security declines. Analysis of survey data from Detroit indicates that gun ownership for protection is inversely related to confidence in the police and in the courts, and that these relationships are independent of demographic and socioeconomic variables and fear of crime.     

Using polychromatic X-radiography to examine realistic imitation firearms

Sections 36-41 of the Violent Crimes Reduction Act (2006), which came into force in England and Wales on 1st October 2007, have placed significant restrictions on the sale and possession of 'realistic imitation firearms'. This legislation attempts to produce a definition of a 'realistic imitation' which clearly differentiates these items from other imitation firearms (which are not covered by the legislation). This paper will go a stage further by demonstrating techniques by which blank firing realistic imitation firearms which may be suitable for illegal conversion to fire live rounds may be differentiated from other less 'suitable' (but visually identical) realistic imitations. The article reports on the use of X-radiography, utilizing the bremsstrahlung of a commercial broad spectrum X-ray source, to identify the differences between alloys constituting the barrels of distinct replica and/or blank firing handguns. The resulting pseudo-signatures are transmission spectra over a range from 20 to 75 kV, taken at 1 kV intervals, which are extracted from stacks of registered, field flattened images. It is shown that it is possible to quantify differences between transmission spectra for components of different realistic imitation fire arms, and apply the results to determine the suitability of particular gun barrels from blank firing imitation firearms for illegal conversion to fire live rounds, or related illegal modifications.     

Police crackdowns on illegal gun carrying: a systematic review of their impact on gun crime

This paper presents a systematic review of the impact of police strategies to reduce illegal possession and carrying of firearms on gun crime, including directed patrols, monitoring of probationers and parolees, weapon reporting hotlines, and others. Four studies met the inclusion criteria, reporting a total of seven nonrandomized tests of directed patrols focused on gun carrying in three American cities (five tests) and two Colombian cities (two tests). Six of the seven tests (not all of which were independent) suggest that directed patrols reduced gun crime in high-crime places at high-risk times. However, conclusions and generalizations must be qualified based on the small number of studies, variability in study design and analytic strategy across the studies, preintervention differences between intervention and comparison areas, and limited data regarding factors such as implementation, crime displacement, and long-term impact.Although the protocol for this review was registered and approved by the Campbell Collaboration Crime and Justice Group (), this paper represents an independent effort of the authors and has not been reviewed by the Campbell Collaboration. Evan Mayo-Wilson conducted research for this project while he was Coordinator of the Campbell Crime and Justice Group at the University of Pennsylvania's Jerry Lee Center of Criminology and a student at the Fels Institute of Government.     

Weapon Usage in Attempted and Completed Parricides in Nineteenth-Century America: An Archival Exploration of the Physical Strength Hypothesis

Abstract:  The "physical strength hypothesis" (PSH) predicts that where there is the greatest discrepancy in size and strength between offenders and victims, the former will use superior weaponry (e.g., firearms) to overcome structural imbalances against the latter. Using archival data from the New York Times and the Chicago Tribune , 1851–1899, this paper examines the weapons used in attempted and completed parricides in nineteenth-century America. Findings indicate that parricide offenders used firearms most frequently against their fathers while intimate contact methods were used against mothers. When gun usage was combined with level of intent in male offender patricides, where the greatest discrepancy in strength was expected, results indicate that spontaneous gun usage outnumbered premeditated gun usage, thus challenging the assumptions of the PSH. The data suggest that cultural factors such as methods of dispute resolution, weapon carrying, and alcohol consumption may be important factors in understanding parricides.     

FIREARMS OWNERSHIP, GUN CONTROL ATTITUDES, AND NEIGHBORHOOD ENVIRONMENT

Consensus has not been reached on whether a relationsip exists among violent crime, fear of crime, and firearms ownership. The questions addressed here are how, if at all, the neighborhood environments of urban blacks and whites affect their patterns and levels of gun ownership, what their attitudes are toward gun regulation, and whether there is a relationship between gun regulation attitudes and firearms ownership. Data collected through a mail questionnaire from white and black residents of high and low homicide risk neighborhoods in Detroit were used to test the questions. Results indicate, for the most part, that blacks and whites hold different attitudes toward gun regulation, that gun regulation attitudes affect gun ownership patterns, and that only in one instance did neighborhood environment explain gun ownership relatively well.     

Trends in firearm-related deaths in the Transkei region of South Africa

BACKGROUND: Firearms tends to be seen today as instrumental in injuries and deaths, including suicide. South Africa's gun law allows firearms to be licensed and legal, so in general they are not illegal weapons, even though many used in violence are illegal. This is a prime area in which multisectorial collaboration is needed in a country like South Africa. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to determine the incidence of firearm-related deaths and to understand the underlying causative factors. METHOD: This is a record review of 10,860 medicolegal autopsies conducted between 1993 and 2004 at Umtata General Hospital. RESULTS: Between 1993 and 2004, there were 10,860 autopsies performed of those who died as a result of trauma and others in Umtata General Hospital. The average gunshot-related deaths during this period are 48.4 per 100,000 of the population per year. The rate has increased from 27 per 100,000 in 1993 to 42 per 100,000 in 2004. It was climbed to its peak to 67.8 per 100,000 in 2001. Firearm-related deaths account for 29% of all traumatic deaths. Males (82%) outnumber females 4.6:1 in fatalities due to firearms. There is an increasing trend in females. About 50% were in the 21- to 40-year age group. Interpersonal violence, poverty, and use of drugs and alcohol are common underlying factors. CONCLUSION: There is a high incidence of firearm-related deaths in Transkei, which is in support of stricter gun control.     

Touch DNA Collection Versus Firearm Fingerprinting: Comparing Evidence Production and Identification Outcomes

A project by a metropolitan police agency in 2008–2009 had police use touch DNA kits to collect cell samples from seized firearms. To assess outcomes, results of touch DNA swabbing of firearms were compared to fingerprinting firearm evidence. The rationale was that fingerprinting, as the older technology, was the baseline against which to compare touch DNA. But little is known about ways to measure touch DNA productivity compared to fingerprinting. To examine differences between the two requires comparable measurements. Two measures were used: quantity of probative or investigative evidence produced and identification outcomes. When applied to firearms seized within an Indianapolis, IN police district, touch DNA produced a larger volume of evidence than fingerprinting, but identification outcomes for the two methods were equal. Because touch DNA was deployed by police patrol officers, there are implications for firearm forensics and the choice of forensic approaches used by police.     

The “war on cops,” retaliatory violence,and the murder of George Floyd*

The police murder of George Floyd sparked nationwide protests in the summer of 2020 and revived claims that public outcry over such high-profile police killings perpetuated a violent “war on cops.” Using data collected by the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) on firearm assaults of U.S. police officers, we use Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) modeling to empirically assess if and how patterns of firearm assault on police officers in the United States were influenced by the police murder of George Floyd. Our analysis finds that the murder of George Floyd was associated with a 3-week spike in firearm assaults on police, after which the trend in firearms assaults dropped to levels only slightly above that which were predicted by pre-Floyd data. We discuss potential explanations for these findings and consider their relevance to the contemporary discussion of a “war on cops,” violence, and officer safety.     

REDUCING FIREARMS VIOLENCE THROUGH DIRECTED POLICE PATROL*

Research Summary: This evaluation of a directed police patrol project utilizes a pre-post quasi-experimental design with a non-equivalent control group as well as an interrupted time series analysis. The results suggest that directed patrol had an impact on firearms crime in one of the target areas but not the other. Policy Implications: The results suggest that a specific deterrence strategy whereby the police utilize directed patrol to focus on suspicious activities and locations reduced violent gun crime. In contrast, a general deterrence strategy focused on maximizing vehicle stops did not have an apparent effect.     

FEDERAL LEGISLATION AND GUN MARKETS: HOW MUCH HAVE RECENT REFORMS OF THE FEDERAL FIREARMS LICENSING SYSTEM REDUCED CRIMINAL GUN SUPPLIERS?*

Research Summary: Following reforms of the federal firearms licensing system, nearly 70% of the nation's retail gun dealers active in 1994 dropped out of business by 1998. Dropout dealers supplied one‐third of guns recovered and traced by police but were linked to fewer crime guns than were other dealers, most likely because dropouts tended to be lower volume dealers. It is not clear if guns sold by dropouts had a higher probability of being used in crime, but guns supplied by dropouts did not move into criminal channels more quickly. Policy Implications: If federal reforms have reduced the availability of guns to criminals, the effect has probably been more modest than suggested by the overall reduction in dealers. Producing further reductions in the flow of guns to criminals through oversight of gun dealers will require refinement in the identification of problematic gun dealers.     

Risky Firearms Behavior in Low-Income Families of Elementary School Children: The Impact of Poverty, Fear of Crime, and Crime Victimization on Keeping and Storing Firearms

This report examines possession and storage of firearms in low-income urban families with at least one child between 8 and 12 years of age. The data primarily consisted of responses to a survey administered to parents, but these data were supplemented by records obtained from discussion groups composed of children between 8 and 12 years of age. The data were collected from five low-income neighborhoods in a medium sized city in the Pacific Northwest as part of a larger study focusing on the presence of risk factors for substance abuse, violence, and gang activity. All five neighborhoods are known to be plagued by poverty, violence, substance abuse, and gang activity. To make our findings more understandable, we compared our findings from these neighborhoods to similar data from a middle-class neighborhood. Middle-class parents were twice as likely to have firearms in their homes, but were much less likely to keep them loaded and/or unlocked. High rates of victimization, fear of crime, self-protective behavior, and exposure to threats or attacks were associated with keeping firearms for protection and engaging in risky gun behavior in the home.     

CRIMES, DISORDERS, AND THE DEMAND FOR HANDGUNS: An Empirical Analysis

In a recent paper, Bordua and Lizotte (1979) analyze determinants of firearm ownership using cross-sectional data for Illinois counties. Noting that firearms may be purchased for the purpose of sport, self-protection, or crime, they present clear evidence of sporting demand and limited evidence of defensive motives in the pattern of gun ownership. Crime rates are significant only in the equation explaining gun ownership by women (1979: 161). The purpose of the present article is to supplement the findings of Bordua and Lizotte and earlier empirical studies by focusing on the demand for handguns alone. In particular, the article analyzes the role of crime rates and fear of violence in motivating citizens to buy and keep handguns. For this purpose, aggregate time-series and cross-sectional data on handgun sales were collected and analyzed. Because handguns are durable pieces of equipment, it is necessary to use a model that distinguishes the stock of handguns at any one time from the rate of handgun purchases.     

Gun Availability and Robbery Rates: A Panel Study of Large U.S. Cities, 1974–1978

This paper examines the hypothesis that crime rates and the availability of firearms form a "vicious circle," so that increases in one lead to increases in the other. Two waves of panel data are used to estimate the relationship between rates of robbery and the relative availability of guns in a sample of large U.S. cities. The results indicate that total robbery rates and gun availability had no influence on each other, but that weapons choice in robbery and gun availability did form a mutually reinforcing cycle. Some implications of these findings are considered.     

The Eastern City Gun Project: Exploring Contextual and Operational Variables

To maintain public safety and improve system response, a strong need exists for understanding the contexts of and police response to weapon-related incidents as well as socio-economic variables of individuals involved. This paper was focused on exploring these contexts and routine police activities by creating and analyzing a weapon-related database at the local level. The findings, although limited due to the explorative nature of the study and the quality of case files, shed some interesting light on the effects of environmental and operational variables on gun incidents and expose certain issues that need to be resolved before further and more accurate understanding of gun crimes at the local level can be achieved.     

Reporting to the police in western nations: A theoretical analysis of the effects of social context

One of the most consistent findings in empirical studies using victimization data is that the decision to report victimization to the police is determined in large part by the seriousness of the crime. The police will be notified more often of crimes that involve more serious injury or greater monetary loss. These findings, however, may be due to the fact that most studies on reporting have been conducted using victimization surveys that devote a great deal of attention to the crime event and victim characteristics and much less to the social context of that event. As a result, influences on reporting operating at the neighborhood, jurisdiction, or nation level have been neglected. The aim of this paper is to bring social context into the discourse on reporting to the police by presenting a much more inclusive model of crime reporting. In addition, the influence of four aspects of macro-level social context on reporting are tested—the perceived competence of the police, institutionalization of insurance business, norm of conformity, and level of individualism—by merging incident-level data from the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS) for 16 Western industrialized countries with nation-level data from various sources. Hierarchical logistic modeling is used to analyze the nested data. The perceived competence of the police has a positive effect on whether property crimes are reported.