德国中东政策与欧盟中东政策的相互影响

德国中东政策与欧盟中东政策的相互影响是规范相互传递的过程。德国在积极引导欧盟制度建设的同时,展现其作为"欧洲的德国"的一面。德国的民事角色、经贸合作角色塑造了欧盟角色的一个方面,其规范与欧盟的发展需求相吻合,欧洲一体化的制度保障为德国规范的传递提供了有效管道,因此,欧盟中东政策表现出明显的追求和平、阿以和解、促进与中东的正常经贸交流等形式;欧盟积极促进民主人权价值观外交,并出现了向军事力量适度变形的迹象和实践,在欧盟内部长期被熏陶的德国主动接受并逐渐内化了这些规范,其中东政策表现出明确但又适度的维护民主人权价值观的倾向,以及通过在中东的军事行动突破来实现德国军事思想转型的迹象。     

俄罗斯欲借中东事务构建地区战略均势

近年来,随着国际油价持续飚升,俄罗斯经济实力的逐步恢复,它正试图改变欧盟东扩和以美国为首的北约的战略挤压。俄一面谨慎地规避与美、欧的正面冲撞和全面抗衡;一面利用其外交、能源等优势,竭力在东欧、中亚、中东等传统政治舞台发挥作用,增强地区事务话语权,进而推动地区战略均势的重建,以维持和扩大本国的战略空间。中东地区因与俄罗斯有着密切的政治、经济利益,当前已成为俄罗斯构建地区战略均势的重要选择。     

欧盟参与中东和平进程:动因、角色与困境

出于地缘政治、经济、安全、移民、历史等方面的原因,同时受欧盟扩大其国际影响力的动机驱使,欧盟谋求在中东和平进程中扮演重要角色,并有意同美国的中东政策拉开距离。虽然中东和平进程是欧盟共同外交与安全政策取得成效最多的领域之一,但由于欧盟的共同外交与安全政策一直面临期望-能力差距的困境,欧盟在中东和平进程中更多的是在经济援助上发挥主导作用,政治进程仍被美国主导。欧盟想要在国际政治舞台上扮演一个强有力的国际行为体角色,需要突破自身在外交与安全领域所面临的期望-能力差距的困境。本文从地缘政治理论出发,基于国际行为体属性和期望-能力差距两个分析概念,对欧盟参与中东和平进程的动因、角色与困境作一分析。     

“亚太再平衡”、“中东离岸平衡”与伊核问题破局

伊核问题破局与"亚太再平衡"战略有较为密切的间接联系。奥巴马执政后不久,推出了"亚太再平衡"战略。受限于国力,为了顺利推行此战略,美国需要从中东抽身。但中东地区历来是美国的战略重点之一,奥巴马政府在从中东抽身的同时,也必须注意尽力维护美国在该地区的利益,于是推出了以"收缩力量、操控乱局"为特色的"中东离岸平衡"战略。伊朗是地区强国,伊朗核问题如不实现破局将会使美国难以从中东抽身,也不利于其在该地区构建新的平衡,"中东离岸平衡"战略将更加难以顺利实施。因此,美国需要在伊核问题上实现破局。     

欧盟与中东关系:政治与安全视野下的考察

正2018年9月出版/69.00元ISBN978-7-5201-3172-8本书从政治与安全视野研究的角度,对近代以来欧洲与中东错综复杂的关系进行梳理,揭示欧盟成立后与中东国家关系发展的脉络与特征。书中分析了以英国、法国、德国为代表的欧盟国家与中东关系的历史演变过程及它们在当前中东重大热点问题上的立场、角色和作用等。书中还分析了欧盟面临的难民和恐怖主义威胁的深层原因和应对措施,探讨在全球治理格局变化中欧盟与外部力量合作处理中东问题的     

从中东动荡看美地区战略及新举措

最近中东地区政局激烈动荡,地区广大民众反美情绪高涨,充分暴露了美国中东战略的失误,主要表现在五个方面,其中美国的恣意横行成为引发地区动荡的一个重要诱因;巴以争端依旧,令阿拉伯人忧心忡忡。为了稳住中东,继续执掌该地区事务,奥巴马政府开始着手调整其中东政策,主要采取了五项措施,其中尤其值得一提的是,美国欲将埃及打造成＂民主...     

美国中东政策的战略支点——土耳其

土耳其是中东地区大国，地跨欧、亚两大洲，连接黑海和地申海，也是多种文明的交汇地，无论在冷战还是后冷战时期都有十分重要的地缘政治意义。二战后美国与土耳其关系发展很快，土耳其成为美国在中东地区实施扩张势力范围和遏制苏联政策的重要“战略支点”之一。美国中东战略中许多重要举措都是通过土耳其这个“支点”展开的。土耳其与美国等西方...     

布什政府的中东政策研究

布什政府的中东战略服务于反恐与民主改造中东这两大互相联系的目标,而其核心的环节是伊拉克,也就是武力改造伊拉克,民主改造整个中东.到2007年这种政策走入了困境.布什政府遂调整政策:重启巴以和平进程,推动以色列改善与穆斯林世界的关系;在推广民主方面放松对阿拉伯国家的压力,在整个大中东地区建立孤立和遏制伊朗的联盟.而这种转变的突出事例是2007年11月安纳波利斯会议.但巴以和平进程由于诸多原因鲜有进展.     

俄罗斯的中东战略和政策评析

2010年底以来，中东地区多数国家进入政治动荡，一些国家由于内生性矛盾和冲突导致政权更迭，利比亚卡扎菲在两方武力干涉下丧命，叙利亚政治危机跌宕起伏，伊朗核问题被推到“战与和”的风口浪尖上。俄罗斯作为世界大国和中东地区邻国，非常关切地区局势变化，并按自己的战略利益和判断，采取相应政策与措施，对地区局势发展施加并产生一定影...     

安倍第二次内阁期间日本对中东能源外交

安倍晋三第二次内阁期间是日本深化与拓展对中东能源外交非常“显著”的时期。安倍在第二次首相任内,经常出访中东,特别是重点加强与中东海湾重要能源出产国的能源合作关系。安倍第二次内阁期间,日本对中东能源外交主要涵盖了石油与天然气、可再生能源以及核能等领域。安倍第二次内阁期间,日本深化与拓展对中东能源外交是各种因素合力推动下进行的。日本深化对中东能源外交,首要目标是要绝对维系与确保日本中东能源进口安全,以为日本经济社会正常发展提供绝对支撑与保障,同时适时乘机扩展和彰显日本在中东地区能够发挥出的独特外交影响力。日本深化与拓展对中东能源外交面临着不少挑战与问题。未来日本能源消费结构还是相当程度上要依赖油气等化石能源,所以,未来日本客观上无法避免地还要继续深化与拓展对中东能源外交。而是否能够有效深化对中东能源外交,将是检验日本能源安全战略与日本整体外交智慧的“观察窗口”。     

Noble Robbers,avengers and entrepreneurs: Eric Hobsbawm and Banditry in Iran,the Middle East and North Africa

Banditry has been endemic across the Middle East and North Africa. Yet the Middle Eastern experience of banditry has thus far failed to receive sustained academic attention. In particular, the debates stimulated by Eric Hobsbawm's thesis of social banditry have elicited only a few responses from scholars of the Middle East and North Africa, and these largely negative. This article asks to what extent the recent work done in the field of ‘Bandit studies’ helps to elucidate the experience of the Middle East and North Africa. Why has there been such a lack of interest in banditry when the phenomenon itself, and rural crime in general, was so widespread? Why are so few individual bandits celebrated or reviled? What do we mean by banditry in the Middle Eastern context, who became a bandit, why and in what circumstances, what did bandits do and how was this perceived by elites and subalterns, what were the connections between bandits and peasants and between bandits and the worlds of power and, perhaps most importantly, who has written about bandits and what sources have they used?     

Is the middle east democratizing?

Elections have become a common feature of the political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa, where dozens of elections for office have taken place in recent years. But more, and frequent, elections, or even some political liberalization, is not synonymous with democratization. Where elections have become a feature of the political system, we still find some disturbing evidence of de‐liberalization as well. Looking at the record in more detail, this article attempts to highlight the continuing tensions between the pressures for democratization and the strategy of gradual opening up of political systems in the Middle East.     

Japanese Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Balancing Economy and Security

Abstract

Although the quest for oil has long been a central concern for resource-poor Japan, its foreign policy in the Middle East does not simply reflect a mercantilist interest in the region's resources. Its desire to remain close to the United States during the North Korea crisis and its nascent competition with China are also critical factors in Japan's Middle East policy. However, Japan lacks an integrated strategy toward the Middle East and as a result the various components of its policy are not always compatible. Hence, while Japan has firmly backed the Bush administration's Iraq policies, and begun discussing a possible free-trade agreement with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it has also, until quite recently, simultaneously pursued closer relations with Iran. In lieu of coherent regional strategy, Japan instead possesses a clearly prioritized sense of its interests in the region.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this articles. A History of Modern Libya , by Dirk Vandewalle. History and the Culture of Nationalism in Algeria , by James McDougall. Memory and Violence in the Middle East and North Africa , by Ussama Makdisi and Paul A. Silverstein, eds. Women in the Middle East, Past and Present , by Nikki R. Keddie.     

Jewish immigrants from the Greater Middle East to France and Belgium: ethnic identity and patterns of integration

ABSTRACT

The present study focused on two groups of immigrant Jews from the Greater Middle East, Israel and North Africa, who currently reside in three cities in Europe: Paris, Brussels and Antwerp. By using mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative), I compared the two groups and found that each one has its own subethnicity: Israelis can be mainly characterized as belonging to the ethno-communal pattern: refer to themselves as secular and use symbols deriving from the non-Jewish environment while preserving several traditional Jewish customs and community affiliation. In contrast, North African participants for the most part conform to the normative-traditional pattern in that they maintain (traditional) beliefs, values and norms while conforming to Jewish customs and ceremonies. Regarding integration and acculturation, Israelis mainly utilize the separation strategy and very partial integration among native–born Jews and other Jewish immigrants. North African participants are more integrated with local native-born and immigrant Jews. Although the most common strategy in both groups is separation from non-Jewish locals, this strategy is more pronounced among North African immigrants who reside in Paris. Israelis residing in Belgian cities (primarily in Brussels) utilize the strategy of partial assimilation among local non-Jewish population.     

Russia's Foreign Policy Towards North Africa in the Wake of the Arab Spring

Since coming to power in 2000, Russian president Vladimir Putin has tried to construct a narrative of regaining Russia's status as a major global power. However, in practice the Kremlin has yet to create a coherent strategy or achieve a sense of a co-ordinated foreign policy. While North Africa has not been at the forefront of this narrative, recently Moscow has intensified its diplomatic links and cooperation with the regimes in the region. The Arab Spring presented Russian policy makers with a series of challenges regarding the uncertainty of the developments in the region, but also with renewed economic opportunities. This profile analyses Moscow's relationships with the countries in North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) in the wake of the Arab Spring. In each case the Kremlin aimed to take advantage of the new opportunities without really being guided by an overarching strategy for the region. However, Russia increasingly seems to be keen to position itself in the region as an alternative to the EU or the US, not least in light of the current war in Ukraine.     

British Policy in the Arab–Israeli Arena 1973–2004

British policy has oscillated between a ‘Diplomatic’ and a ‘Strategic’ orientation. The Diplomatic orientation regards the Arab–Israeli conflict as the most important element in Middle East policy, while the Strategic orientation views the conflict as less important than the need to contain radical anti-Western forces in the region. The Strategic orientation is associated with a mutually reinforcing combination of ideological sympathy for Israel, a pro-US orientation and the Prime Minister, while the Diplomatic orientation is associated with a mutually reinforcing combination of ideological sympathy for the Palestinians, the Foreign Office, a pro-European orientation and, to a deceasing extent, commercial interests. Since 1973, in an attempt to manage its declining power, Britain's has sought to ‘bridge’ the widely differing EU and US approaches, in order to achieve maximum influence and relevance. On occasion, this strategy has succeeded, however Blair's ambition to be the pivot at the centre of international involvement in the region is completely unrealistic. For while ‘bridging’ allows Britain the satisfying sense of ’punching above its weight’ in the Middle East, it often produces the appearance, rather than the reality, of substantive influence.     

EVOLVING TOWARD NORMALCY AMID ANOMALY: NORTH KOREA’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY SINCE THE DEMISE OF KIM IL-SUNG

North Korea's engagement in the Middle East is a six-decade long narrative. Neither the DPRK nor its Middle Eastern partners have remained still over this time; each region has undergone significant changes. In particular, the leadership of the North Korea is now in the hands of the third generation. No matter how stagnant and monolithic the country may seem at first sight, each generation has had to deal with differing commitments and adapt to changing realities. As such, each generational change of leadership in Pyongyang has arguably had repercussions on the DPRK's relationship Middle Eastern partners, which may at times have been misattributed to a fundamental change of approach. This study attempts, therefore, to probe the twists and turns in the DPRK's interactions with the Middle East since the death of Kim Il-sung, beginning with an appraisal of each leaderships’ priorities in North Korea, and how they could potentially influence Pyongyang's overall orientation toward its different partners in the region.     

代前言

2011年3月19日西方国家对利比亚进行军事打击以来,利比亚危机已经持续了数月,引发了国内外学术界的广泛关注和讨论。有鉴于此,中国欧洲学会欧洲政治研究会与《欧洲研究》编辑部联手推出一组笔谈,约请国内学者从美国、法国、德国等大国的态度与行动,欧盟、北约的战略考量等角度分析利比亚危机的相关问题,并从国际关系、国际法、中国外交等多种视角进行了讨论,以期推动学界对利比亚危机的深入思考和广泛讨论,探索中国学术界回应国际热点问题的新模式。     

Determinants of political instability across Arab Spring countries

This paper investigates the determinants of political instability across Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with special attention to the Arab Spring-affected region. The yearly data-set covers 19 countries in the MENA region for the period 1991–2014. The study uses pooled ordinary least square (OLS), fixed effect and random effect approaches. Our most robust result indicates that political instability in the region is very sensitive to exogenous food price shocks. Youth unemployment and regime durability are also strong predictors of unrest. The frustrated educated youth explanation of the Arab Spring is, however, not borne out by our study. The connection between the presence of democratic institutions and political unrest is more complex. Our results confirm other studies which find that more democracy leads to less unrest. On the other hand, our focused study of five Arab Spring countries and Egypt finds the reverse. Our results are sensitive to the ways in which the variables are defined. It is always important to use alternative empirical specifications when undertaking econometric investigations of political processes.