北约、欧盟双扩与欧洲新安全结构

随着北约、欧盟新一轮东扩的即将启动,欧洲新的安全结构愈益凸显出来。这个新结构完全不同于欧洲历史上的均势和两极结构,而是一种复合中心圆结构。它是以北约和欧盟为核心的两个交叠但不重合的中心圆,北约中心圆发挥的作用以军事安全为主,欧盟中心圆作为“安全锚地”发挥“软安全”作用。这两个职责不同的安全核心,其内部关系高度民主制度化和组织化,聚合程度高,稳定性强。核心通过制度化的多边合作机制联系着周边国家,但从核心到边缘存在着等级区别。结构具有开放性和扩张性特点,在扩张过程中规范因素发挥了重要的作用。复合中心圆结构对欧亚大陆自西向东构成三种压力:力量压力、制度压力和文化压力。     

冷战后中国与东盟关系述评

仲国与东盟关系自上世纪90年代初以来,取得了从“全面友好合作”到“睦邻互信伙伴”再到“面向和平与繁荣的战略伙伴”这样一次又一次的飞跃发展,整个发展过程呈现了双边模式促多边合作、多边模式带动双边合作、区域合作和次区域合作并行的特点。中国与东南亚关系的进一步发展,符合双方共同利益和愿望,是历史的必然选择,但“中国威胁论”、南海主权争端、台湾问题和华人华侨问题等,仍将是长期影响双方关系发展的重大障碍。     

冷战后东盟地区安全机制的发展及对中国的影响

安全机制是当今国际安全研究领域的一个热点问题。在本文中，“安全机制”将被界定为“容许国家相信其他国家将予以回报，而在它的行为上保持克制的那些原则、规则和标准。这一概念不仅指便于合作的标准和期望，而且指一种超出短期自我利益追逐的一种合作形式”。而所谓东盟地区安全机制，在文中则主要指的是以下两类机制：一是东盟组织框架内、涉及东南亚地区的安全机制；二是由东盟主导的、有区域外因家参加的、     

The EU,NATO and Europeanisation: The return of architectural debate

In international relations, ideas matter. Not only are ideas important, and rooted in a relationship with interests, but present ideas are shaped by the outcome of past ideational battles. It is the impact of conflict between the ideas of the early 1990s upon the present that concerns this article. The first section of this article suggests that ideas matter. The second then examines the interplay of those ideas of European security in the early 1990s. The third and fourth sections trace the inevitable move to NATO enlargement that arose as a consequence. And the conclusion will examine how this contemporary history has shaped the debates of today.     

冷战后印度尼西亚和马来西亚的马六甲海峡安全模式选择

马六甲海峡是连接印度洋和太平洋的交通要道,航运繁忙,战略意义十分重要。冷战结束后至今,印度尼西亚和马来西亚在马六甲海峡安全合作上的模式选择发生了显著的变化。“海盗”和海上恐怖主义威胁并未给两国造成严重的影响,但对其进行打击、防范的成本却过高,因此两国选择了消极合作模式加以应对。美国介入马六甲海峡事务的企图最终促成了印度尼西亚和马来西亚的合作。     

在北约东扩问题上俄美欧三方的矛盾分析

北约与俄罗斯的关系历经死敌-好友-伙伴-对手的多般变化。近年来,围绕着美国在东欧部署反导系统、美国在欧洲新建军事基地、欧洲常规力量部署以及能源领域的矛盾冲突,俄关欧三方关系复杂,尤其在北约东扩问题上,各方的矛盾表现得更为明显。     

First- and Third-World Newspapers on World Opinion: Imagined Communities in the Cold War and Post-Cold War Eras

This article considers the role of the "tabloid press" in Jordan's post-1989 liberalization process. Most studies of media in society and in processes of political transition have either ignored the role of tabloid media or derided them as examples of what is worst in media functioning. The present article seeks to compensate for this neglect by placing the tabloid press at the center of analyses of the media and democratization. In Jordan, the proliferation of such media after 1989 stands as one of the best indicators of the country's gradual, halting, but nonetheless real liberalization process. Tabloid performance was also perhaps the most prominent point of controversy, contention, and conflict between the Jordanian media and the regime in power. A brief comparative and theoretical analysis considers the role of the "yellow" press in transitions from authoritarianism to democracy worldwide. The article then turns to consider the Jordanian experience from the onset of liberalization in 1989 through to the present.     

In Defence of the West: General Lauris Norstad, NATO Nuclear Forces and Transatlantic Relations 1956-1963

In the history of NATO, lack of Atlantic communality is a recurring theme. Atlantic cohesion was constantly challenged. However, the discord among NATO members rarely threatened the very existence of the Alliance. The late 1950s and early 1960s witnessed such a rare occurrence. In Europe the question of nuclear sharing triggered the development of blue-prints for a step-by-step replacement of the Atlantic security co-operation by a European Security Community. These blueprints were discussed among the EEC member-states and within the forum of the WEU. This study analyses not only those concepts, but also the role of the SACEUR, General Norstad, in defending NATO from external threats and internal decay. By studying the leeway of the SACEUR, this study tries to establish whether the subsystem of the international system, formed by the nations of the North Atlantic area after the Second World War, should be characterised as a system of hegemonic stability or as a pluralistic security community. The article is based on recently declassified archival material from both sides of the Atlantic.     

美伊战争后土欧关系发展的内在联系分析

美伊战争后,土耳其和欧盟之间的关系有了显著发展,土耳其加入欧盟问题也确定了明确的谈判日程。土欧关系明显改善和美伊战争后的国际局势变化之间,显然存在着某种逻辑上的密切联系。美伊战争后国际环境的改变,使土耳其进一步丧失了原有的地缘战略优势。土美关系的疏离,也迫使土耳其不得不加快融入欧洲的进程。而欧盟则不满于美国在全球反恐战略中一国独大的领导地位和过分采用暴力手段的做法,提出了一种新的多元文化相互协调的安全观念设想。为此,欧盟也急于通过成功接纳和重新塑造土耳其,来证明它提出的建立自由主义多元文化安全观念的合理性。     

北约欧盟双东扩:俄罗斯不同对策及其原因分析

俄罗斯对待北约东扩和欧盟东扩的态度与对策既是不同的,也是变化的,原则上俄反对前者而支持后者。这既源于北约、欧盟作为国际组织的性质、主导力量和所体现的对俄政策的不同,也因为俄亲欧防美、分化欧美的外交战略和外交策略考量。北约、欧盟东扩不会停止,俄罗斯也不会甘拜下风。从长远发展观点来看,俄罗斯加入欧盟的可能性要大于加入北约,但也绝非近期之事。     

EU–US Trade Disputes about Risk Regulation: The Case of Genetically Modified Organisms

The cultivation of crops increasingly employs genetically modified organisms worldwide. The nature and the probability of side and latent effects of the mass use of genetic engineering are, at present, unforeseeable. A trade-off between risks and benefits is therefore hard to define. The precautionary principle is a globally known though not undisputed approach to handling such uncertainties. Its application is the focus of a World Trade Organisation (WTO) dispute settlement case between the US and the EU about the approval of genetically modified seed in Europe. The competent Panel (Panel in European Communities – Measures Affecting the Approval and Marketing of Biotech Products, WT/DS291, WT/DS292 and WT/DS293) was scheduled to close the case at the end of 2005. I argue that the dispute is not about the recognition of the precautionary principle in itself, but about different cultural preferences of dealing with risk, leading to disagreement over how the precautionary principle should apply in practice. I suggest that the WTO ought to respect the cultural foundation of risk perception and integrate it into its legal system.     

Bandwagoning to dampen suspicion: NATO and the US-Japan Alliance after the Cold War

The question of why alliances endure in the post-Cold War periodhas been the center of much attention in the past decade. Institutionalistsand constructivists often criticize neorealists for their failureto predict the continuing existence of the Cold War alliances.In this article, I apply the above theories to both NATO andthe US–Japan Alliance, point out the flaws in variousarguments, and assess the problems associated with the debateitself. Building on the theory of strategic restraint, I thenprovide an alternative explanation for the endurance of thesealliances, by showing why secondary and potentially threateningstates (or ‘sheep in wolf's clothing’) are willingto follow a hegemonic lead, and how institutions can help achievethat end. This illustrates an under-examined function of alliances:dampening suspicion by bandwagoning.     

Bilateral and Regional Strategic and Security Relationship Between China and the US after the Cold War

Sino-US relations are complex relations with multi-aspects between the two bigcountries in the world. It has three levels: the global level, the Asia-Pacificlevel and the bilateral level. The critical relationship between China and the US isembodied in the regional and bilateral levels that are more specific and essential.Beyond the field of economy and trade, their relationship is mainly embodied in thestrategic and security field.     

欧盟政策实施问题初探——关于丹麦拖延实施欧盟指令2000/43的案例分析

由于成员国在落实欧盟政策的进度和程度上参差不齐,政策实施问题已越来越成为欧盟关注的焦点.由于种种原因,欧盟政策实施的不完美是一种常态.到底哪些因素决定了成员国在实施欧盟政策上的具体表现?本文通过丹麦拖延实施欧盟指令2000/43的案例分析,比较有关理论的解释力.理性选择制度主义的一种理论强调从特定政策出发进行微观分析,探讨国内行为者在实施欧盟政策过程中的互动情况.     

二战后中日结盟观比较研究——以中苏同盟、日美同盟为例

战后中日结盟观存在差异。从结盟功能来看,中国谋求的是生存与安全;日本谋求的是从生存、安全到对外权力的增加、对国际秩序的影响。从结盟对象来看,中国的结盟对象包括强国和相对弱势的国家;日本的结盟对象集中在强国。从同盟地位与同盟管理来看,中国强调地位及管理的平等,而日本对这方面的不平等往往持容忍的态度。从结盟基础来看,中国从以面临共同威胁而产生的共同安全利益以及意识形态划界,到淡化、放弃意识形态划界。日本则从以面临共同威胁而产生的共同安全利益以及意识形态划界,到淡化意识形态,再到一度逐渐强化意识形态划界。从结盟影响来看,中国经历了结盟利于和平到不利于和平的观念转变,日本则以结盟利于和平的观念为主。