试析泰国社会运动和政治不稳定的根源

自2005年以来,泰国政治风波不断,社会运动此起彼伏.无论是他信派还是反他信派势力执政,政府都面临着来自民间力量的强大压力.本文对社会运动的概念作了初步探讨,并且确定了泰国半自主、半宪政的国家类型.在此基础上,文章从政治形态、经济背景、文化传统三个分析维度考察近三年来泰国社会运动多发和政治秩序不稳定的深层根源.     

从泰爱泰党到为泰党:泰国“他信系”政党之社会学分析CSSCI

泰国“他信系”政党的生命力可以从政党社会学的两个研究维度来解读。其一,从“政党中的社会”即政党的组织运作来看,“他信系”政党较强的适应性得益于有效的精英吸纳、他信的领导特质、领导层的平稳过渡、企业化的组织管理以及强大的财源供给等因素。其二,从“社会中的政党”即政党与外部社会的关系来看,“他信系”政党注重通过“政治纲领”和“有效的利益代表”建构自身合法性,将泰国社会结构的矛盾塑造成具有意义的身份认同和群体边界,构筑自己的社会根基,同时把泰国传统政治解构为以“去中央(曼谷)化”和“地方化”为特征的新政治。“他信系”政党成长于泰国的社会文化土壤,存在政党制度化水平较低、缺乏社会整合能力等难题,面临政治生态多元变化带来的新挑战。作为泰国政坛的主导性政党,为泰党如要承担历史责任,仍需不断革新,提高自身制度化水平和社会塑造能力,以最大的妥协和容忍推动社会整合。     

泰国对华友好合作政策的动力与前景

泰中关系自两国建交以来一直发展平稳.近年来随着中国的和平崛起,泰国他信政府出于国家利益的考虑,积极推行对华友好合作政策,两国关系呈现加速发展的势头.本文从国家利益层面分别从经济、政治和安全的角度分析了泰国推行对华友好合作政策的动力,并对泰国对华政策的前景做了评估.     

泰国他信政府"进取性"外交政策透视

他信政府上台执政三年多来,围绕恢复和发展经济这个中心任务,推行"进取性"外交政策.泰国外交关系全面发展,为国内经济恢复与发展创造了和平稳定的国际环境,开拓了国际市场,同时也使泰国的国际地位和影响得以全面提高,引起东南亚各国以及世界主要大国的关注.     

东南亚地区形势:2008年

在刚刚过去的2007年,东南亚各国经济保持较高速度的增长;展望2008年,虽然有一些困难和不稳定因素,但是,总的而言,仍然是一个好年头.美国经济衰退给世界经济带来许多不确定因素,也给东南亚经济蒙上一层阴影.然而,时过境迁,美国经济虽然是影响东南亚经济的一个重要因素,但已经不是唯一的因素,美国一打喷嚏,东南亚就感冒的年代已经一去不复返了.东南亚政治在2008年基本能够保持稳定,马来西亚顺利举行大选;泰国前总理他信回国,新总理沙玛一再强调是他信的代言人,新政府执行了一条没有他信的他信政策.东盟通过了<东盟宪章>,它标志着这个地区性国际组织进入一个新的时代.东盟与各个大国的关系也比较顺利,日本在东南亚又有一些新的动作,福田首相继承其父亲老福田的路线,加强了东南亚外交.     

从对抗性要素联盟看泰国政治怪圈的形成机制

泰国的政治发展陷入一种长期的文人与军人交替执政、选举与政变循环反复的"怪圈"。他信执政以来,以王室、曼谷政商集团、新资本集团和农民为代表的生产要素所有者,由于在经济发展中的收益分配不同,产生不同的利益诉求和政策偏好,进而形成改革联盟和保守联盟两大对抗性要素联盟。双方在国家发展理念、社会运动和民主机制三个层面的升级对抗,导致泰国政治怪圈的延续。未来泰国政治的发展趋势取决于要素联盟的稳定性及由此带来的联盟格局变动。近中期来看,保守联盟仍会保持较高的合作程度,他信派只有向保守联盟妥协,才有望打破政治僵局。长期来看,产业结构的更新换代带动传统资本向新兴行业流动,加之后普密蓬时代的王室影响力式微,将动摇保守联盟的稳定性,从而可能引发泰国政治制度的根本性变革。     

他信政府的危机及其启示

今年年初以来,泰国政坛发生了一场政治危机。本文首先回顾了此次泰国他信政府政治危机的由来与发展过程,然后分析为什么颇有作为和成就的他信政府会面临一场自1992年以来大规模的反政府示威活动,最后作者试图从这场危机中找出一些令人深思的教益。     

泰国的禁毒运动

制毒、贩毒和吸毒是当今世界最大的公害之一。它跟艾滋病、恐怖主义一样,是人类的大敌。目前全世界毒品的种植、生产和消费仍呈蔓延和发展的趋势,毒品问题已成为全球性的问题,几乎没有一个国家能幸免于难。地处世界著名毒源“金三角”的泰国,更是在劫难逃,长期受到毒品的危害和困扰,可以说,毒品已成为泰国国家安全与稳定的主要威胁之一。他信政府自2001年2月上台执政以来,把禁毒作为与脱贫、治贪并列的三大施政目标之一。他信认为,毒品是泰国当前的大敌,防毒反毒是政府的当务之急,提出了向“毒品宣战”的口号。近三年,由于措施得力,行动果断,所以扫毒工作战果累累。泰国政府禁毒的成功将不仅造福于全体泰国人民,也将为整个亚洲乃至全世界的禁毒斗争做出历史性贡献。     

关于泰国司法化的诸种不同观念

本文主要研究2006—2014年间泰国司法化的政治问题,并审视此极端争议期间司法被卷入政治的诸种形式。本文从2006年国王的两次重要演讲以及知名学者、社会批评家提拉育·汶密的诠释切入,细究几项具有持久政治影响的关键司法判决,包括2006年的大选无效案、2007年的取缔泰爱泰党案、2008年和2014年的亲他信·西那瓦的沙马·顺达卫和英拉·西那瓦两位总理被免案、2008年他信受到数项腐败指控并被判罪名成立,以及2010年的司法扣押他信资产案等。本文提出以下几个问题:司法化必定意味着保守主义者千方百计要剥夺从政者的权力并破坏选举政治吗?法官们是为泰国社会工作还是同某些既得利益集团结盟?在泰国语境下,司法能动性越强,是否就越能推进社会与政治领域的进步?本文认为,泰国的"司法化"是一个复杂的社会现象,对不同的法庭在不同的情况下以及不同的时间做出的判决,都必须仔细斟酌,辨明其各自所起的作用。     

全球化进程中泰国的发展道路选择——“充足经济”哲学的理论、实践与借鉴

基于在全球化进程中实现国民经济社会的长期稳定可持续发展的需要,泰国确立了"充足经济"哲学的国家发展原则.本文首先探讨了"充足经济"哲学的理论内容,而后分析了"充足经济"的两项重要实践,即普密蓬国王的农业"新理论"和前总理他信的"双引擎战略".同时指出,由于利益需求的不同,泰国各派政治力量在"充足经济"哲学的政策解读方面产生了分歧与矛盾,并因缺乏有效的政治协调机制,甚至引发了既得利益集团与革新同盟之间的政治冲突.文本最后探讨了泰国"充足经济"哲学的理论与实践对中国特色社会主义建设的借鉴与启示.     

Locating Kaliningrad And KÖNigsberg In Russian And German Collective Identity Discourses And Political Symbolism In The 750Th Anniversary Celebrations Of 2005

This article begins by briefly exploring issues of conflict and control in relation to the 750th anniversary of the city of Kaliningrad/Königsberg. An analysis of the tensions between Russian regional (Kaliningrad) and national (federal) identity discourses on the political symbolism of the 750th anniversary commemoration is offered, using Russian media reports and interviews conducted in Kaliningrad. German narratives on the political symbolism of the anniversary events and their implications for German national identity discourses are investigated via interviews conducted in Kaliningrad and Germany, German media reports, books, films and a theater production about Königsberg. Particular attention is given to the impact of the German expellee organizations on framing the discourse about Königsberg in contemporary Germany. The article will conclude by comparing and contrasting the various discourses and interpretations of the anniversary in the Kaliningrad region, Russia and Germany.     

CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES AND THE TREATMENT OF PAKISTAN’S RELIGIOUS MINORITIES

Although Pakistan was created as a homeland for South Asia's Muslims, religious freedom was one of its founding principles. Seventy years later, Pakistan is better known for religious extremism and the persecution of Muslim and non-Muslim religious minorities. Pakistan's blasphemy law is a state-sanctioned tool of religious oppression used to target members of minority faith communities whether Ahmadiya, Christian, Hindu, or Shiite, as well as Sunnis who criticize the law. This paper discusses the blasphemy law and other laws that have led to the state of religious oppression in Pakistan.     

'Adorned with the Mix of Faith and Profanity that Intoxicates the People': The Festival of the Senhor do Bonfim in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, 1930–19541

This essay looks at a formative period in the history of the festival of the Senhor do Bonfim, one of Salvador's most important religious festivals. The essay focuses on the public ritual washing of the Church of Bonfim and the tensions between the Catholic Church, who periodically banned the washing from the larger festival, and a variety of historical actors including politicians, journalists, authors and working-class Salvadorans whose efforts eventually contributed to the lifting of the prohibition once and for all in 1953. The author suggests that the defence of the washing both reflected and contributed to a larger hegemonic process taking place in Salvador after 1930, as actors within Salvador's dominant class accepted and even praised Afro-Bahian cultural practices, including them as integral parts of a larger Bahian identity.     

The FBI's Role in Expelling Germans from Ecuador During the 1940s

The expulsion from Latin America of immigrants from axis countries and their descendants is an important but little‐studied episode of the Second World War. The role of the US, and in particular that of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), in their removal has largely disappeared from historical memory. This article examines how the FBI advanced US commercial interests, and in the process harmed vulnerable people who were subject to these expulsions.     

INDIA’S DEMONETISATION: MODI’S ‘NUDGE’ TO CHANGE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

This article offers an account of the impact of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw suddenly all Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes from circulation in India with the avowed intent of combatting fraud, tax avoidance and other economic problems. The article assesses the impact from the demonetisation in November to the March 2017 Indian regional elections, where wide-scale victories for Modi’s political party, the BJP, appear to have vindicated his reforms. The article provides an analysis of the political background of the period, as well as looking at the economic and societal impact of the changes, including the way in which the behaviour of Indian citizens has been ‘nudged’ with particular regard to use of banking, transactions, social effects, and payment of tax.     

DROUGHT: THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.