中东动荡局势:俄罗斯的利益权衡与政策选择

俄罗斯对中东变局的态度基本分为3种类型:对于突尼斯、埃及、也门、巴林等国,俄罗斯持观望立场,在也门问题上,俄罗斯充当了调解者的角色;对于爆发外国干涉利比亚而产生的冲突,俄罗斯持中立立场;对于叙利亚的国内战争,俄罗斯充当执政者的保护国,不惜与西方国家和一些有影响的阿拉伯国家对抗。俄罗斯对中东变局的立场,是21世纪初以来俄罗斯与西方国家在解决国际冲突方面分歧的继续,尤其在叙利亚问题上表达了俄罗斯对冷战结束以后国际关系体制转型的基本理念。在中东局势的发展前景仍然不明朗的情况下,俄罗斯因受诸多国内和国际因素的牵制,难以制定出更加灵活有效的中东政策。     

关于西方困境的思考北大核心CSSCISSCI

国际金融危机爆发已近十年,这十年里西方所处困境为二战结束后罕见。西方特别是欧美面临的问题具有根本性和制度性,包括经济优势受到削弱,政治制度、发展模式受到严重质疑,以及由于恐袭增多所产生的安全挑战等。西方被多重危机所困是近30年来,继苏联解体、新兴经济体群体性崛起之后,又一对国际格局和秩序产生结构性影响的新变化因素。其影响表现在,西方的实力地位和影响力下降,"东升西降"的国际格局大趋势持续;欧美对外战略大调整,价值观外交攻势受挫,贸易保护主义上升;大国关系出现新一轮大调整。全面深刻认识西方变局,有助于中国以更大的自信心坚持走自身发展道路和推动全球治理,为世界和平稳定发展做出更大的贡献。     

千年视野下百年未有之大变局与中国路径北大核心

当前以东升西降为本质的百年未有之大变局正在国际格局与国际秩序的裂变中逐步展现。但是,以权力转移为基调的百年变局框架不能深刻解释世界范围内千年变局的文明与国家发展规律。只有以千年变局视野下文明中国为路径,才能跳出既有西方国际关系的叙事框架。在当今新时代,中国首次放弃过去数百年间“刺激—反应”模式的被动策略,迈入顺势而为,积极主动引领百年未有之大变局的战略轨道。从战略全局的挑战来看,美国正试图在全球范围内调动各方资源建立排华反华联盟,阻挠中国战略全局的实现,以期延续其21世纪的全球霸权地位。但是在千年历史长河中,东升西降这一百年未有之大变局不可逆转。然而,变局非定局,中国需要从战略全局出发,综合运用实力政治与文明对话这两大战略,积极主动塑造和引领百年未有之大变局,实现中华民族伟大复兴,推动构建人类命运共同体。     

国际投资规则的变化新趋势与中国的应对方略

百年未有之大变局下世界政治经济与生产格局深度调整，触发国际投资规则的变化与重构。国际投资规则的变化主要集中在五大领域：大型区域协定规则制定、投资争端解决机制、外资安全审查、数字领域投资治理以及可持续发展。国际投资规则的变化有着深层次的政治经济动因，全球经济治理体系重组、国际投资格局变化、西方技术民族主义盛行、数字经济治理挑战、新冠肺炎疫情冲击都影响着国际投资规则的发展变革。参与国际投资规则构建是维护国家利益的重要内容，中国需要加强国内规制建设、扩大内外投资市场空间、构筑投资协定伙伴网络、提高议题设置能力以争取规则制定话语权，在争端解决机制改革、外资安全审查协调、数字经济领域投资治理、可持续发展导向方面积极作为，为百年未有之大变局下的全球投资治理提出具有“全球价值”的“中国方案”。     

东北亚新变局及其战略影响——“换班年”令朝鲜半岛充满不确定性

朝鲜半岛的战略稳定是保障东北亚安全与稳定的核心因素，因而一直得到包括中国在内的东北亚相关国家的高度关注。2011年岁末朝鲜领导人金正日去世带来的朝鲜政坛变化以及相关各方的不同反应，再度要求我们进一步理性审视东北亚可能出现的新变局，判断这些变化将推动东北亚局势及世界局势向什么方向演变，以及思考身处变局的中国应该作出何种政策或战略调整与应对。为此，2012年1月6日，     

从俄乌冲突看非国家行为体的作用与影响北大核心

俄乌冲突不仅是冷战结束之后罕有的欧洲大国直接军事冲突,导致西方国家与俄罗斯的激烈对抗,也引发国际资本巨头、小微科技企业、新兴国际化平台、跨国公司等非国家行为体的广泛介入,凸显了非国家行为体在国际政治中的作用与影响呈现出新的态势。非国家行为体受益于全球化发展与数字化时代的加速演进,通过介入国家间竞争、参与全球治理进程、影响舆论思潮对国际格局产生重大影响,愈发成为影响百年变局的重要变量。非国家行为体作用的上升,对于中国拓展实力、维护国家利益与安全均有诸多启示意义。     

“伊斯兰国”突起及西亚北非恐怖活动的变化

"伊斯兰国"的突起,带动西亚北非地区恐怖活动在暴力活动、组织形式、活动范围等三个方面发生了重大变化,突破了历史上的恐怖活动,掀起了新一波地区恐怖浪潮。地区变局是这一波恐怖浪潮的基本原因,变局为该地区长期存在的恐怖势力提供了新的活动机遇,变局所激化的各种矛盾为恐怖势力提供了新的活动空间,变局中国际社会一些力量的不当政策诱发、助长了恐怖活动。地区恐怖活动的走势,取决于恐怖势力所积蓄的能量、国际反恐策略和地区变局的发展变化。恐怖势力将会长期影响该地区和全球安全。     

俄格冲突：地缘政治框架下的分析

2008年8月爆发的俄格冲突是相关各方地政治博弈背景下的产物，它反映了俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯与美国以及欧亚地区三个层次的地政治冲突的现实。冲突也相应地在三个层次上产生了反映地政治冲突的力量格局和平衡的现实结果。俄格冲突也在地政治层面对今后国际局势产生了重要影响，其中包括对当前美国主导的国际秩序的冲击，对北约未来发展的冲击以及对国际能源局势的冲击。     

对当前中东变局的几点认识

以突尼斯“茉莉花革命”开端的中东变局，具有鲜明的互联网时代特征，正在进一步蔓延之中，或将发展成为第二次世界大战以来中东的第三次浪潮。经济欠发展与社会问题突出是变局的主要动力，西方大国的干预使局势更加复杂多变，伊斯兰教势力并非运动的主力，但在下一阶段可能乘势崛起并“劫持普世民主”，地区经济、政治秩序与地缘政治格局或将发生重要变化。美国外交中理想主义与现实主义相互交织，相互矛盾，美国根据形势的发展“适时”“适当”地推进中东“民主化”的动力依然强劲。当前的中东变局，还可以放到地中海文明视野下进行审视。     

俄罗斯问题的西方表述——关于欧美俄苏研究导论

在国际学术界和国际政治领域，俄罗斯问题是一个很复杂的概念。之所以如此，远不只是俄国本身的文明结构之复杂性所致，更有西方的独特表述之原因。影响西方对俄罗斯问题表述的，是因为西方自身的欧洲中心论、欧美所建构的“西方”概念及其在国际和俄国所产生的反应、对俄罗斯问题进行斯拉夫-俄国-苏联学研究等，这些原因从不同方面促成了西方对俄罗斯问题的认知和判断远不同于俄国，     

War and the West

The outline of human history over the last two thousand years is framed by armed conflict. Many would like to overlook this simple historical reality, and the perilous consequences of ignoring military affairs. The advantage the West now enjoys is the product of several developments in political and social domains culminating in what can be called a Military Revolution. The creation of powerful states as the overarching social organization is an example of one such revolution, which supported a series of smaller innovations and changes in the way the West fought its wars. These smaller changes are “revolutions in military affairs.” These revolutions do not have to be tied to technology. Britain generated an advantage over France by creating a financial system which substantially altered its ability to sustain the conduct of war in the eighteenth century. History reveals the degree of political, social, economic and technological adaptation needed to maximize security and minimize the consequences of failure. The study of history is necessary to insure that we do not have to fight wars more often, or at far higher cost in human terms.     

The West that is not in the West: identifying the self in Oriental modernity

This paper discusses the meaning of ‘the West’ in Chinese and Japanese political discourse. It argues that for Japanese and Chinese political thinkers, the West does not exist in the West. Rather, the West is sometimes at the periphery and, at other times, at the centre. For them, ‘the Chinese’ is about the epistemology of all-under-heaven. There is no such concept as ‘Other’ in this epistemology. As a result, modern Western thinkers depend on opposing the concrete, historical, yet backward Other to pretend to be universal, while Chinese and Japanese thinkers concentrate on self-rectification to compete for the best representative of ‘the Chinese’ in world politics. ‘The Chinese’ is no more than an epistemological frame that divides the world into the centre and the periphery. In modern times, the Japanese have accepted Japan as being at the periphery of world politics, while the West is at the centre. To practise self-rectification is to simulate the West. The West is therefore not the geographical West, but at the centre of Japanese selfhood. Self-knowledge produced through Othering and that through self-rectification are so different that the universal West could not make sense of the all-under-heaven way of conceptualizing the West.     

Epistemological failures: everyday terrorism in the West

This article attempts to problematise the disparate levels of attention paid to similar violences globally, whereby violence against women in the developing world is seen as a security concern to the West, and yet violence against women in the West is minimised or ignored. It will do this, first, by demonstrating that everyday violences, better known as everyday terrorism, in the West are subjugated knowledges within Terrorism Studies. To demonstrate this, Half the Sky, Sex and World Peace and The Better Angels of Our Nature serve as exemplar texts that reflect Western exceptionalism and non-Western savagery, particularly within Muslim societies, and deflect from everyday terrorism within the West. This reifies the West as an exceptional saviour and the non-West as a problematic savage. This article looks to flip that reification on its head by recognising that everyday terrorism happens everywhere and is not bound to non-Western identities.     

The “New Look” of German Diplomacy: The West German Foreign Service after the Second World War

When established in 1951, the West German Foreign Office resembled its pre-1945 Berlin Ministry predecessor in many ways. Notably, about 45 percent of Bonn’s diplomats came from the old service. Such continuities raised concerns about a restoration of old diplomatic traditions and attitudes. However, significant changes in German diplomacy—its West German variant—soon became evident, not least in terms of diplomatic style and methods. This analysis explores how the Foreign Office’s staff adopted, promoted, or rejected such changes. It assesses institutional processes of transformation and examines why diplomats were willing to “re-learn” diplomacy after the Second World War. Likewise evaluated are the problems and limits of re-orientation. By focussing on (dis)continuities within the Foreign Service in the 1950s and 1960s, the analysis contributes to the general field of research on processes of transition in West Germany after the end of the Third Reich.     

The economic community of West African states,the defence of democracy in Sierra Leone and future prospects

The wave of democratization in the 1990s has brought considerable challenges and opportunities for post‐cold war Africa. One such challenge is the democratic intervention of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) under the aegis of the multilateral intervention force, ECOMOG, to restore a democratic government and constitutional order. The ECOWAS democratic intervention in the West African state of Sierra Leone can be located in a wider debate about international dimensions of democratization. In several respects, it also reflects the changing nature of international politics in the post‐cold war period particularly with regards to certain traditional norms of international society, namely non‐intervention and state sovereignty. The ECOWAS democratic efforts in Sierra Leone demonstrate that it is increasingly becoming acceptable for regional and international organisations to ‘defend’ democracy, albeit under the auspices of forcible as well as non‐forcible humanitarian intervention. However, these kinds of external intervention on behalf of democracy have in most cases led to its retrenchment. This article therefore critically assesses how the nature of domestic politics led to the suspension of democracy in Sierra Leone, the domestic and international implications of the ECOWAS defence of democracy there and the country's post‐conflict democratic prospects.     

Homegrown Terrorism in the West

The London bombings in 2005 led to the perception that the terrorist threat had changed from external to internal. This became conceptualized shortly after as “homegrown terrorism.” This article deals with the meaning and scope of this phenomenon. We begin by tracing an ambiguity in the term “homegrown,” which is both about belonging in the West and autonomy from terrorist groups abroad. A quantitative study of Islamist terrorism in the West since 1989 reveals an increase in both internal and autonomous terrorism since 2003 and that most plots are now internal—but not autonomous. Finally we suggest that an increase in autonomous terrorism is a transitory phenomenon.     

The dynamics of contemporary local-government policies and economic development in West Papua

There have been enormous political, economic, and social changes in West Papua. Every governor of West Papua has designed programmes to boost economic development and reduce poverty. The influx of migrant workers under the ‘transmigration programme’ into West Papua has limited the job opportunities for indigenous people in the labour market. This article concludes that the local government's strategies failed to deliver suitable development programmes to the local people, which resulted in increased poverty, the continuing poor development of the education system, and the deterioration of the population's health condition, with a rise in the number of Papuans infected with HIV and AIDS.     

Silencing the contestant. Legitimizing Crimea’s annexation by mimicking the West

ABSTRACT

This article analyses Russia’s endeavours in legitimising the annexation of Crimea in the eyes of the Western community. The paper argues that Russia’s strategy of “silencing” the international contestation has been focused on the use of the West’s “language” for the justification of contested actions. Starting from the assertion that the formulation of Russia’s foreign policy is determined by Western normative frameworks and by the West’s international behaviour, the article scrutinised Moscow’s official narrative after March 2014 by comparing it with the West’s arguments used in particular in the cases of NATO’s intervention in Yugoslavia and the recognition of Kosovo’s independence.     

Socio-religious communities and fertility patterns in West Bengal,India

This article explores the fertility differential of different religious groups across various socio-economic characteristics. The article is based on primary data collected from a field survey of 2,590 households in the Malda district of West Bengal in India. The mean number of children ever born (MCEB) is used to measure fertility. The analysis shows that there is a major variation in the impact of various socio-economic variables on the number of children ever born among different religious groups. The study findings will be helpful for policymakers regarding the planning for management of different demographic processes.     

Political Violence and the Illicit Economies of West Africa

This comparative analysis draws on field research in several West African countries to illustrate the dynamic relationships between political violence and organized crime in this sub-region. These relationships are often transactional, and almost always on a temporary basis. While some alliances of convenience may be forged, in other cases an adversarial relationship exists between organized crime and terrorist networks. In some cases, key actors within West African governments have benefited from these relationships. We then examine recent policies and strategies pursued by the U.S. and the international community that, in the name of combating terrorism, seek to constrain the illicit economies of the region, but in doing so may do more harm than good. The article concludes with some policy recommendations based on this analysis.