俄罗斯与北约关系开始解冻

2009年12月4日,俄罗斯-北约理事会外长级会议在比利时首都布鲁塞尔举行。会议讨论了俄与北约发展合作关系的“路线图”,并就欧洲安全、军事合作,以及阿富汗等问题达成多项共识。这是自2008年8月俄格冲突以来俄与北约成员国外长首次正式会晤,标志着俄与北约关系已开始解冻。但由于双方积怨很深,在一些重大问题上的分歧仍难消除,今后双方关系如何发展值得关注。     

Russia and NATO expansion: The uneasy basis of the founding act

Much of the debate since the formation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy has focused on the political will, or lack thereof, as the principal obstacle to a successful European security policy. However, even if a cohesive will to develop a clear and operational foreign and security policy exists, the lack of military capabilities within the EU would make the implementation of that policy difficult, if not impossible, for the foreseeable future. The emerging political will to develop a CFSP needs to be paralleled by significant improvements in the force projection capabilities of the EU member states in order for a CFSP and future Common Defence Policy to be credible.     

北约欧盟双东扩:俄罗斯不同对策及其原因分析

俄罗斯对待北约东扩和欧盟东扩的态度与对策既是不同的,也是变化的,原则上俄反对前者而支持后者。这既源于北约、欧盟作为国际组织的性质、主导力量和所体现的对俄政策的不同,也因为俄亲欧防美、分化欧美的外交战略和外交策略考量。北约、欧盟东扩不会停止,俄罗斯也不会甘拜下风。从长远发展观点来看,俄罗斯加入欧盟的可能性要大于加入北约,但也绝非近期之事。     

NATO enlargement and Russian security: A comparison of findings from two analytical approaches

The article compares the results of two model analyses on the implications of NATO enlargement for Russia's security in six regions: North‐West, West, South‐West, Caucasus, Central Asia, and Far East. One was done by Vitali Tsygichko using his ‘Model of Defense Sufficiency’ (MDS), the other one by these authors using Tsygichko's data as input to the ‘Generalized Force Ratio Model’ (GEFRAM). While agreeing with regard to the general trend in the development of Russia's security situation, the results differ significantly as to whether these trends indicate a reduction of security below Russia's stated requirements. The results are preliminary and meant as an input to a continued debate on the subject among analysts.     

俄罗斯地缘空间形成与拓展的历史基础

空间是一个国家物质文明和精神文明的总和,是历史的积淀。俄罗斯"新欧亚主义"学派的代表人物、俄罗斯地缘政治学家亚历山大·杜金教授指出,空间是地缘政治学的一个基本概念,它不是数量范围,而是质量范畴。杜金进而认为,空间的结构往往决定历史的结构,首先是政治历史的结构。据此本文认为,俄罗斯空间形成与拓展的历史基础是东欧平原,俄罗斯的空间扩张始于欧洲,沙俄帝国时期的空间扩张转向远东。沙俄兴于扩张,也败于扩张。苏联时期继续进行空间扩张,俄罗斯独立后其地缘空间发生了新的变化。     

Russian national security concepts 1997 and 2000: A comparative analysis

After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent Russia had to redefine its relations with the outside world. In order to establish new relationships with both new and traditional cooperation partners, the country's leadership had to define the main strategic objectives, identify the main interests and threats to Russia's security and propose new ways of coping with the challenges the vast country confronted. The first years of independence were marked by a power struggle between various parts of the political elite, which delayed the process of defining the country's strategic goals in the field of national security. In December 1997, the Concept of National Security of the Russian Federation was published, and in January 2000 a new version was made public. This brief article is a comparative study of the concepts of national security embodied in the two documents, focusing on Russia's relations with the outside world and use of nuclear deterrence as a means to solve security and status dilemmas.     

European experience for East Asian integration: ideas, national interests, and the international circumstance

This paper traces the possibility of East Asian integration through comparison with the early stage of European integration on three different levels: ideas, national interests, and international circumstance. Judging from the European experience, ideas always come first, then national interest contests, and eventually the international circumstance conditions the context. I compare the multilateral approach in Europe with the imperial hegemony competition in East Asia, Adenauer’s regionalization policy in Europe with the Yoshida line of Westernization detouring from Asia, and the US and Russia’s different roles in the two regions as external forces constraining the international order. My conclusion for the future of East Asia is located somewhere between views of procedural divergence and fundamental skepticism. I worry about integration for the sake of integration in which regional integration is presupposed as inherently good. Such discourse will easily be deteriorated and such a blind community simply collapses when circumstances change. For these reasons, there needs to be an adequate discussion regarding for what, by whom, and through which method integration is achieved.     

北约扩大及其前景分析

北约自1949年成立以来,历时60年,冷战时期的40多年里由成立之初的12国增加到16国,冷战后历经三轮扩大,由16国激增到28国,从而极大地改变了欧亚大陆的地缘政治格局,而这种扩大的趋势并未停止。北约扩大可确保北约盟主美国掌控欧亚大陆的主导权不受挑战,同时也将受到欧亚大陆诸大国的反对和制衡。未来北约扩大的方向和进程,将主要取决于美国与欧亚大陆各大国之间的战略博弈的结果。     

走向全球化的北大西洋公约组织

一、成立背景及其概况 北大西洋公约组织（North Atlantic Treaty Organization，NATO）（以下简称北约）是1949年4月4日由美国、英国、法国、荷兰、比利时、卢森堡、加拿大、丹麦、挪威、冰岛、葡萄牙、意大利等12国在华盛顿共同签署《北大西洋公约》而成立的。按照《北大西洋公约》有关规定，缔约国实行“集体防御”，任何缔约国同他国发生战争时，应给予“援助”，包括使用武力。北约组织所涉及的地理范围包括北美、欧洲成员国和土耳其本土及地中海、北回归线以北大西洋内各成员国之岛屿。总部设在比利时首都布鲁塞尔。     

北约与俄欧关系

冷战后,北约作为世界上最强大的政治军事联盟,通过东扩、科索沃战争及俄罗斯-北约合作机制的建立,继续保持了对俄欧关系的重大影响。由于俄欧关系和俄北关系之间存在着互动关系,俄为保证优先发展对欧关系的方针取得成功,必须同时加强与北约的关系。从俄罗斯、欧盟、北约和美国等彼此间的复杂关系看,俄欧关系的发展可进一步推动俄北合作关系机制化,并降低北约作为美国全球战略工具的作用。但由于战略和经济上的分歧与矛盾,俄欧合作存在明显的局限性,这将导致俄欧关系在上述方面的影响力和作用受到较大限制。     

试析俄罗斯民族的文化心理对俄外交的影响

一个国家的外交政策是该国民族文化心理的外在反映和体现,具有自己鲜明的特色。由于历史、宗教、地理等各种因素的影响,俄罗斯民族呈现出极端性、矛盾性、情绪化相结合的、带有强烈民族主义意识的复杂民族心理,这深刻地影响了俄罗斯的外交政策。