NATO enlargement and Russian security: A comparison of findings from two analytical approaches

The article compares the results of two model analyses on the implications of NATO enlargement for Russia's security in six regions: North‐West, West, South‐West, Caucasus, Central Asia, and Far East. One was done by Vitali Tsygichko using his ‘Model of Defense Sufficiency’ (MDS), the other one by these authors using Tsygichko's data as input to the ‘Generalized Force Ratio Model’ (GEFRAM). While agreeing with regard to the general trend in the development of Russia's security situation, the results differ significantly as to whether these trends indicate a reduction of security below Russia's stated requirements. The results are preliminary and meant as an input to a continued debate on the subject among analysts.     

New NATO: Special Features and Impact on European Security

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO) has made two major strate-gic readjustments in the post-Cold War years to shake off the awkward posi-tion when its raison d'etre was called into doubt. At the 1991 Rome Summit, anAll-dimensional defense strategy was put forth with conflict prevention andcrisis management as its core mission. Preparations for the second strategic read-justment began in 1997 and the concept of a 21st century-oriented new strategywas declared at the Washington Summit last April.     

Russian national security concepts 1997 and 2000: A comparative analysis

After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent Russia had to redefine its relations with the outside world. In order to establish new relationships with both new and traditional cooperation partners, the country's leadership had to define the main strategic objectives, identify the main interests and threats to Russia's security and propose new ways of coping with the challenges the vast country confronted. The first years of independence were marked by a power struggle between various parts of the political elite, which delayed the process of defining the country's strategic goals in the field of national security. In December 1997, the Concept of National Security of the Russian Federation was published, and in January 2000 a new version was made public. This brief article is a comparative study of the concepts of national security embodied in the two documents, focusing on Russia's relations with the outside world and use of nuclear deterrence as a means to solve security and status dilemmas.     

A tale of a decade: European security governance and Russia

In the decade since the fall of the Berlin Wall the governance of European security has undergone a profound transformation. The beginning of this decade witnessed the end of the Cold War and, in parallel, the establishment of relatively inclusive mechanisms for addressing security‐related issues. While these mechanisms have largely endured (and, indeed, have been complemented by other types of interaction) they have not prevented the emergence of forms of exclusion on the continent. This is a condition of particular significance to Russia. Compared with its Soviet predecessor, it now enjoys far less influence in European security. Its exclusion, however, is only relative. Russia has retained a meaningful role and ‐ recent controversies over NATO enlargement and Kosovo notwithstanding ‐ the bases of its accommodation with the West still remain in place.     

Reintegration and localised conflict: security impacts beyond influencing spoilers

This article investigates the effectiveness of combatant reintegration through a case study of two security-oriented programmes held in Poso, Indonesia from 2007 to 2008. Each programme aimed to prevent further attacks by addressing perceived economic difficulties experienced by youths whose main skill was perpetrating violence. The effect of such reintegration programmes on potential spoilers has typically been conceptualised in terms of programme influences on former combatants themselves. But in a localised conflict context where many combatants may have held jobs while perpetrating violence, the paper finds that the clearest contribution to sustaining peace of reintegration programming was its effect on police capacity to manage security. Police increased their levels of contact with combatants through reintegration and other informal incentives, then leveraged this contact to gather information after security incidents and to detect potential security disturbances. This pattern of achieving security outcomes through police contact with perpetrators of violence owes its conceptual lineage to the counter-terrorism strategy of the Indonesian police. The case highlights the potential for greater exchange between the fields of combatant reintegration and counter-terrorism disengagement.     

European security and defence policy: from cologne to sarajevo

This article reviews the development of the EU's European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) from its inception at the Cologne European Council Summit in June 1999 until its most immediate challenge, namely, the establishment of a military mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina to take over from NATO's SFOR mission at the end of 2004. After a general survey, an analysis of the challenges and trends that confront ESDP in the coming period follows. In particular, issues relating to recognition, governance and post-nationalism are explored.