萨维茨基及其欧亚主义地缘政治思想

萨维茨基是俄罗斯欧亚主义地缘政治思想的代表.他的基本观点是:欧亚俄罗斯是一个与欧洲(西欧)和亚洲(东亚和南亚)鼎足而立的特殊发展空间.作为成吉思汗和帖木儿事业的继承者,俄罗斯现在要注意通过非武力的途径来统一这一空间;在西方,要致力于建立大陆屏障和保持海上平衡,联合英国来对抗德国的扩张.萨维茨基的地缘政治思想与苏联时期的对外政策不谋而合.     

地缘政治学与现时代

随着全球化的不断发展和科学技术的日益进步,地缘政治学似乎已经过时了。但是,从地缘政治学的理论立论来看,“人与自然环境”的联系链条作为其立论的依据是始终存在的,地理环境对国家政治行为的影响是客观的事实。在现时代,分析冷战结束以后的国际政治现实以及中国所处的国际环境,也说明了地缘政治研究的重要意义。因此,现时代的地缘政治研究性质抛弃了原有的旧观念,是用适应时代发展的新的观念来考察新的国际政治现实,其意义更为重要。     

Pipeline Diplomacy: The Geopolitics of the Caspian Sea Region

The Caspian Sea region is important to world energy markets because it holds large reserves of undeveloped oil and natural gas. In order to fully utilize these resources several challenges need to be addressed. These include an accurate assessment of the region's hydrocarbon resources; rivalries between regional and international powers; domestic ethnic conflicts; and lack of appropriate export routes. This study examines these four obstacles. It argues that the region could help increase world energy security by diversifying global sources of supply; however, the notion that the Caspian's oil and gas can be the panacea to long–term global energy security is misguided.     

Power and Paradox: Asian Geopolitics and Sino-American Relations in the 21 Century

The pattern of Asian geopolitics can be examined by employing three analytical perspectives. The first employs East Asia and the vigorous debate over the meaning of the rise of China as an intellectual prism to observe the currents of geopolitical continuity and change that are currently abroad in the Asian region. The second explores the extent to which the interacting forces of geopolitics and military modernization foster the rise of new force projection capabilities that may affect the strategic environment in Asia—particularly in East Asia. Here, the focus is mainly on the arsenals of the three indigenous Asian giants, China, Japan and India, all of whom have developed, or are in the process of developing, significant air and maritime assets whose operations have the potential to intersect in East and South East Asia. Russia is not as much a presence because it no longer possesses its powerful Soviet-era Pacific Fleet and has, in essential respects, retreated to its traditional role as a Eurasian land power.¹ The third examines the future of Sino-American relations in Asia in the context of the debate over China's ascent and U. S. decline—a discussion that has intensified since the implosion of the U.S. financial system in 2008 and the onset of the worst global recession since the 1930s.     

Iran's Geopolitics and Revolutionary Export: The Promises and Limits of the Proxy Empire

From its inception in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has functioned as a traditional state and an exporter of the Islamist revolution, a formula promulgated by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Creating the revolutionary export narrative and calling on Shia Muslims to dominate the Middle East was one thing. Implementing this policy was another, as the regime—hobbled by a weak economy and a devastating war with Iraq—had few resources to spread its influence and take on its enemies. With traditional warfare out of the equation, Iranian leaders decided to mobilize the Shiite minorities to create the Axis of Resistance using tactics that later become known as fourth-generation warfare (4GW). Iran, still subject to overwhelming sanctions led by the United States and facing better armed opponents in Israel and Saudi Arabia, has intensified its proxy warfare in the twenty-first century.     

批判地缘政治学的发展与地缘政治研究的未来

批判地缘政治学通过对传统地缘政治本体论、认识论和思想史的反思,特别深刻地批判了传统思想中的物质决定论倾向和西方中心视角,强调道德规范和人文关怀在地缘政治研究中的重要性,拓展了研究思路和范围,为地缘政治研究的未来发展做出了一定的贡献。但在体系建构和部分课题研究上批判地缘政治学还存在不足。     

India's Role in the South China Sea: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in Play

This article looks at the South China Sea, an area of dispute between China and other littoral states, as a new area of geopolitical and geoeconomic interest for India. The article follows the strategic discourse on the South China Sea circulating in the Indian government and wider strategic community, and brings in Chinese responses and interpretations of India's involvement. India's role in the South China Sea is four-fold: first, naval deployments; second, increasing strategic-military links with littoral states like Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam; third, economic involvement of Indian energy companies in South China Sea waters; and fourth, discussions between India and other regional and extra-regional China-concerned powers about the South China Sea. India's involvement in the South China Sea represents a new development in its Look East Policy, a new balancing factor in the interplay of actors within these waters, and a new friction factor within India-China relations.     

Hegemonic order, September 11, and the consequences of the Bush revolution

The striking feature of contemporary world politics continuesto be the disproportionate power position of the United States.U.S. officials consider stability in East Asia to be of vitalimportance, and they have adopted a hegemonic strategy to promoteregional order and serve U.S. interests. U.S. officials arelikely to find the management and completion of hegemony moreproblematic in the years ahead. U.S. power, particularly military,will remain unchallenged. But changes in U.S. foreign policyafter September 11, developments in the world economy, and developmentsin East Asia suggest that the exercise of U.S. power and U.S.relations with states in this all-important region will becomeincreasingly complex and will demand more creative diplomaticefforts.     

地缘政治与中亚五国民族问题

地缘政治与民族问题固然属于不同范畴的两大理论体系,但二者之间存在着一定的内在联系。它们相互影响,相互制约,对世界政治、经济形势的发展产生较大影响。本文以中亚地区的历史与现实问题为载体,探讨地缘政治与民族问题在沙俄时期、苏联时期以及中亚五国独立后的相互关系,以便于我们对上述两大理论体系之间的联系以及中亚的历史与未来有更清楚的认识。     

Back with a Vengeance: The Return of Rough and Tumble Geopolitics

Too many Western policymakers in the United States and across the European Union still remain attached to an “end of history” worldview, which has somewhat blinded them to the resurgence of great power politics. For the past decade or so, the unipolar world has been breaking apart due to various centrifugal geopolitical trends. The COVID-19 pandemic did not cause these trends, but is accelerating them. A leaderless, multipolar world on the cusp of de-globalization and the onset of a cold war between the United States and the People's Republic of China is a recipe for skyrocketing unpredictability and increased instability. This article traces the origins of these trends and provides a framework to analyze the political trajectories and geopolitical (and ethical) consequences thereof.     

信息时代的地缘政治与"科技权"

随着科技进步对人类生产生活空间的扩展,地缘政治的战略核心不断更新.信息时代,在以往的陆、海、空、天这四维空间之外,又增加了第五维空间--"信息空间".信息空间不仅自身具有极大的战略意义,而且对其他四维产生了巨大的辐射效应,加之新出现的国家行为模式与国际秩序,为古老的地缘政治理论赋予了许多全新的特点.要夺取信息时代的地缘优势,应当遵循新的战略理论--"科技权论".     

从地缘政治角度看中日关系

地缘环境是影响一个国家发展以及国家关系的稳定制约因素 ,是不可忽视的。中日两国作为地缘上非常接近的国家 ,其关系必然离不开地理环境的影响和制约。从两国所处的自然地理状况入手进行分析、探讨两国地缘政治关系的变化和美国这一地缘制衡力量对现实中日关系的影响 ,在两国利益上的共同点和难以解决的矛盾点都存在的情况下 ,两国关系只能是有限合作、有限冲突 ,但合作应是两国关系的主流     

实力中心的动态转移与中亚地缘政治

中亚在国际政治中的重要性不仅取决于其重要的地理位置,更有赖于主要实力中心的动态转移进程,经典地缘政治理论和国际权势斗争都有力地说明了这一点。冷战后,中亚作为一个"地缘政治"区域,其重要特征就在于中亚/高加索地区和中东之间在地缘政治上相互依赖--尽管仍然处于发展阶段,并成为决定主要国家未来政策和思维的一个关键因素。正是基于地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化多重考虑,中国政府制定了一项审慎的、渐进式的中亚地缘战略,它既反映了当今中亚的巨大变化给中国外交带来的机遇和挑战,也说明了在实力中心动态转移进程中,中国自身的实力优势与不足。中国政府极其清晰地认识到,尽管苏联的解体消除了中国通向中亚国家大门的障碍,但解决民族分离主义和极端宗教势力的唯一可行的途径是经济上的繁荣和地区稳定。因而,安全、利益和责任的内在有机整合也就成为中国战略选择的根本出发点。     

Political ideology, quality at entry and the success of economic reform programs

This study investigates how government ideology matters for the success of World Bank economic policy loans, which typically support market-liberalizing reforms. A simple model predicts that World Bank staff will invest more effort in designing an economic policy loan when faced with a left-wing government. Empirically, estimates from a Heckman selection model show that the quality at entry of an economic policy loan is significantly higher for governments with a left-wing party orientation. This result is robust to changes in the sample, alternative measures of ideology, different estimation techniques and the inclusion of additional control variables. Next, robust findings from estimating a recursive triangular system of equations indicate that leftist governments comply more fully with loan agreements. Results also suggest that World Bank resources are more productive—in terms of reform success—in the design of policy operations than in their supervision. Anecdotal evidence from several country cases is consistent with the finding that left-wing governments receive higher quality loans.     

The shaman hunts and the postwar revival and reinvention of Okinawan shamanism

In the 1930s and 1940s shaman hunts (yutagari) were conducted by the Japanese Special Higher Police in Okinawa, Japan's most southern and remote prefecture. This was not the first time that attempts had been made to remove these women from Okinawan society. The fact that the yuta were hunted down and incarcerated, driven underground, and in some cases executed says much about how influential and threatening Japanese authorities perceived them to be. At the end of the Battle of Okinawa, more than one quarter of all Okinawan civilians were dead, and in many cases their remains were unrecoverable due to the extent of the destruction. The absence of appropriate mortuary rituals and religious specialists to perform these rituals, many of whom had been removed by authorities, led to severe spiritual dislocation for many Okinawans. In the chaotic postwar environment a path was opened for the revival of the previously hunted shamans to treat those who had suffered physical, family and spiritual loss, through providing help for these clients in dealing with settling the unsatisfied dead. It also led to the emergence of the ‘new’ yuta, those shamans who followed different routes to becoming religious advisors. This paper first outlines some of the circumstances that led to the shaman hunts, and then assesses the role of the Battle of Okinawa and its aftermath in rehabilitating shamanism in postwar society.