国际秩序与中美战略竞争

当今国际格局的最显著变化,就是新兴市场国家和发展中国家的群体性崛起以及中国与世界主要国家间力量对比的变化。就中美当前的实力地位和国际影响力而言,中美战略竞争中短期内还难以决定性地改变当前的国际秩序。中国即便对美国的贸易霸凌主义和在亚太地区的霸权主义军事及安全行动采取斗争的回应方式,也并不意味着两国无法合作、或中美关系已进入国际秩序变革的主导权之争。中美战略竞争的同时,经贸往来和必要的合作仍会发展。中美战略竞争会影响权力、观念和行为方式的调整变化,其走势将在相当程度上影响国际秩序的稳定和变革。但未来国际秩序的变革并非只取决于中美,世界主要国家间的互动关系和战略选择,将决定性地影响中美战略竞争的走势和未来国际秩序的演变进程。     

A New Asian Order and the Role of Japan

China is changing the international order in East Asia. It is not only a matter of a power transition, but also a matter of a change in the international system. Chinese people tend to see the world order in hierarchical terms as they did for centuries; nationalism is used as a tool of national integration; and government control of the military is weakening. These are the factors behind the rise of China. If these trends continue, a hierarchical order with China as hegemon might be established in East Asia. It seems as if we are returning to the period before the nineteenth century when China led the world. However, the international order in the twenty-first century has to be based upon such principles as the rule of law, peaceful solution of conflict, democracy, and human rights. In order to establish such an order, Japan and other countries that have committed to those values should unite firmly. China also would benefit very much from that order in the long run.     

New Security Dimensions in the Asia–Pacific

The rise of China provides a major challenge to the United States, the undisputed hegemon in the Asia-Pacific region since the second world war. This development provides regional states with an opportunity to shape the regional security architecture by adopting an inclusive approach to China. The role of the Association of Southeast Asian States (ASEAN) tends to be under-estimated by Western scholars who often see the European model as the only approach to regional integration. This paper discusses the significant achievements of ASEAN in serving as a catalyst for the establishment of regional institutions. Such institutions could serve as instruments for the management of China's relations with Japan and India. It is contended that the emergence of Asian powers, especially China, will result in a challenge to the Washington Consensus of Western norms and values focusing on individual rights which have governed international institutions. The rise of China is likely to see the application of a Beijing Consensus emphasising the balance between individual rights and social obligations, which would resonate positively in the region. In the twenty-first century, global institutions will need to reflect the norms, values and practices of global society and not just Atlantic perspectives.     

Dualistic Identity, Memory-encoded Norms, and State Emotion: A Social Constructivist Account of Chinese Foreign Relations

By tracing the origin and evolution of Chinese nationalism, this paper finds that the dialectical relationship between the Chinese “self” and the foreign “other” has provided the cultural-institutional context for the construction of its national identity. The positional change of the Chinese actor in the self-other interaction—resulting from the institutional shift from the tianxia order to the Westphalian system—and the consequent national humiliation have been embedded in the Chinese collective memory and given rise to the consensual norms ingrained in the national identity. Viewed through the lens of political sociology and identity politics, China’s tenacious struggle for national rejuvenation can be construed as a social practice guided by these memory-encoded social norms. Due to the protracted and ambivalent nature of the state’s purposive action in attaining great-power status on the international stage, the confidence of the resurgent state is compromised by an acute sense of frustration. This identity predicament has engendered a peculiar Chinese state emotion, which has profoundly influenced the in-group members’ evaluation and perception of out-group entities and their behavior in the antagonistic intergroup relations.     

Revisiting China’s “peaceful rise”: Implications for India

This article explores the significance and relevance of the concept of China's peaceful rise and its implications for India. Though the concept suddenly lost its usage and was replaced by a more modest term, peaceful development, the basic tenets of the peaceful rise concept hold considerable relevance. Peaceful rise is a concept aimed at managing the consequences of China's rise as a great power. Essentially, while it reiterates China's foreign policy of peace and common development of all, it also indicates a paradigm shift in Chinese foreign policy. Since the essence of peaceful rise is to support a peaceful international order, the concept imparts a peaceful relationship between India and China.     

A Rising China and the Normative Changes in International Society

Normative changes in the Western-dominated international society have been taking place, symbolized by the evolution from the “standard of civilization” to the “new standard of civilization”. And the West has always been the developer of the new norms in international society, and changes in international norms reflect the link between power on one hand and norms, rules and institutions on the other. That is a fact or an invented reality which a rapidly rising China has to deal with, and its implications on China’s future relationship with the international society are sure to be great and far-reaching.     

Asian Common Currency as a Driving Force of Economic Integration in East Asia: A Prospect

This article proposes an open and multi-tiered economic and financial system with introduction of an Asian common currency as a form for the Post Bretton-Woods arrangement. After reviewing the role of the incumbent international economic system, the reasons that an Asian common currency could contribute to consolidate the new international system is discussed bearing in mind the new environment of the relative decline of economic power of the United States and relative rise of economic power of China. Then a “roadmap” for the introduction of an Asian common currency is provided and how to proceed steadily on the long road towards the introduction of the new currency is argued. In particular, it is emphasized, as the world looks for a new direction, that strong political collaboration in the region is required precisely now with a view to making this a reality.     

The Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy: New Incentives with Slowing Growth

Abstract

Rising powers such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience two distinct stages of relative capability growth. China is currently in the first stage of growth, which is defined by increasingly rapid expansion and incentives for foreign policy accommodation. As the PRC shifts to the second stage, however, relative growth will slow, and leaders in Beijing will be presented with new incentives for foreign policy confrontation. This article formalizes a two-stage model of relative power growth and argues that China's shift to the second stage of growth will threaten regional and global stability. During this shift, the key to international security will be a coordinated, multilateral effort that responsibly balances China's growing power with a similarly expanded international role for China.     

Japan's Policy for East Asia

Japanese foreign policy six decades after the end of World War II stands at a crossroads. The forces of globalization and the rise of the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) seem to herald the end of the unipolar post-Cold War international system and the emergence of a new era defined by multi-polarity and multilateralism. Such global trends are manifest most clearly in Japan's own backyard, where phenomenal region-wide economic growth, a gradual redistribution of power (in particular the rise of China and India), and the increasingly important role of multilateral cooperation and regional institutions are dramatically transforming East Asia. This trend shows no signs of slowing down, much less reversing itself; nor would it be in Japan's interest to pursue any policy that seeks to do so. Nevertheless, the transformation itself remains almost on auto-pilot, lacking a clear long-term guiding vision. After presenting a brief overview of Japan's past policy toward the region, the goal of this paper will be to articulate such a vision through a series of policy proposals through which to ensure future peace, stability, and prosperity in East Asia.     

China and the “Responsibilities” of a “Responsible” Power—The Uncertainties of Appropriate Power Rise Language

This article looks at the ambiguities and tensions for and around the People's Republic of China (PRC) in being “responsible” (fuzeren) and having “responsibilities” (zeren), both of which are related consequences surrounding its growing power (guo) in the international system and in the Asia-Pacific. However, the ambiguities surrounding the implications of being “responsible” and of having “responsibilities” cause problems not only for the international system but also for the PRC in terms of its image, and others' reaction to the PRC. International and regional stability will be shaped by how far these aspects of power rise settle down in the PRC's interaction and presence in the international system and in the Asia-Pacific.     

中国与东盟关系:现状和前景

在 2 0 0 1年 ,世界上发生了 4件大事 ,它们是 :布什上台后 ,对美国的对外政策进行了一系列重大调整 ;“9·11”事件爆发 ,美国在全球范围内开展反对国际恐怖主义的斗争 ;中国正式加入世界贸易组织 ;中国与东盟领导人同意用10年左右的时间组建中国———东盟自由贸易区。这 4件大事正在或者将要对中国与东盟关系产生重大影响 ,而中国与东盟关系如何发展 ,向什么方向发展 ,也将对亚太地区乃至全球产生深刻的影响。     

Decoding the Evolutionary Path of Chinese Foreign Policy, 1949–2009: Assessments and Inferences

Chinese foreign policy has made a grand transition during the post-Mao reform era. Chinese foreign policy of the 21st century has become much more open and pragmatic in its relations with the outside world, more extensive in its reach and coverage, highly diversified in its functions and partners, more committed to international norms than before, and much more sophisticated in its dealing with the international community. Yet, the precise balance between the changes and continuities is still quite difficult to gauge. Furthermore, despite crucial visible changes, concerns and worries - even some fears - are discernible with regard to the rise of China. In the last 60 years, Beijing has sought hard to sustain consistencies (shizhong ruyi) in its foreign policy. Perhaps, that is the best clue the world has in inferring the future trajectory of Chinese foreign policy.     

MANAGING THE RISE OF CHINA(REVIEW ARTICLE)

A survey of a number of books about how the overall international system will need to be modified so as to cope with the rise of China. Clearly the single most important relationship will be that between the US and China. The present structure of that bilateral relationship is inadequate for future needs.     

现代历时性/共时性国际体系变迁中的结构性权力变化分析

国际体系变迁是当今国际关系研究中的热点问题之一。由于界定标准的差异,国际体系变迁类型可以从不同的视角进行区分。本文中的历时性和共时性两种类型的国际体系变迁,是以时空标准来进行区分的。由于这两种类型的国际体系变迁存在时间上的延续和空间上的连接关系,因而这种归类有助于避免机械地将"体系本体转型"与"体系要素转型"割裂开来。在作为国际体系基本单位的不同——同质性与异质性——国际行为体之间,其结构性权力变化、结构性权力的持续时间和稳定性,以及结构性权力来源领域的相对重要性等,在这两种类型的国际体系变迁中呈现出各自不同的特点。现代历时性/共时性国际体系变迁中的结构性权力变化充分体现了这种差异。如果当今正在发生的是又一次历时性国际体系变迁——即从现代国际体系到后现代国际体系的变迁,那么其对新型国际体系的结构性权力变化将产生深远的影响。     

The rise of BASIC in UN climate change negotiations

This paper assesses the role of the BASIC countries — Brazil, South Africa, India, and China — in UN climate change negotiations. The paper explores the formation and evolution of the group, and focuses on how the four major developing countries of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa have coordinated their positions and acted jointly to achieve an agreed outcome with other players in the recent UN Climate Change Conferences in Copenhagen and Cancun, based on an analysis of their country profiles and negotiation positions on a wide range of climate issues. The paper argues that the emergence of the BASIC Group is a reflection of the ongoing power shift from EU–US agreement to BASIC–US compromise in UN climate negotiations since the early 1990s. The rise of BASIC also has its roots in recent global market dynamics and further reflects the power transformation in the economic dimension of the international system.     

Dragon’s underbelly: An analysis of China’s soft power

Using both quantitative and qualitative data, this paper extends Joseph Nye’s analytical framework on soft power to the China case, in order to provide a more balanced and updated analysis of the country’s power status. We argue that the rise of China is not simply an expansion of hard power; it has also been accompanied by tremendous efforts to develop soft power. Soft power helps Beijing redraw geopolitical alliances in ways that will propel its rise as a global power. This process is nevertheless complicated by the deficiency of its soft power resources and the uneven progress in projecting the soft power abroad. The paper concludes that despite Beijing’s growing ability to shape other people’s worldview or political agenda, soft power remains Beijing’s underbelly and China still has a long way to go to become a true global leader.     

China’s New Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping

Since taking power, the new Chinese President Xi Jinping has talked of “striving for achievements,” signaling a new theme in Chinese diplomacy. This article first examines the changes in Beijing’s foreign policy structure before moving on to examine the three major schools of thought on China’s immediate relations with its neighbors, implying that the policy focus will lie with the “advance westward” school. Moreover, this article highlights how China is maximizing its influence through economic interaction, whilst noting that economics is also being used to punish hostile countries. Furthermore, it notes that China’s next step is to influence change using the multilateral frameworks of the international system, remolding global rules to China’s benefit. The article concludes by examining Beijing’s leadership role, particularly its commitment to non-alliance, and whether Beijing and Washington can rebuild a more suitable model to reflect both country’s ambitions on the world stage.     

CHINA'S GLOBAL GOALS AND ROLES: CHANGING THE WORLD FROM SECOND PLACE?

Whilst there is a general acceptance amongst Chinese analysts that the country's global power has really increased (and for very good reasons), how best to use this power to generate real change in the global order remains a subject of considerable debate. The nature of that international order itself is a key determinant of what China can do. On one level the rise of new powers is leading to a depolarised order with fluid and changing alliances that create possibilities for China to build partnerships for change. But on another level, the residual power of the US creates clear limits on what can be done. This creates a rather unique set of circumstances where a partially dissatisfied rising power has to try to find ways to responsibly change (but not fracture) the existing system as self-perceived No.2, with the No.1 rather reluctant to accept the No.2's agenda.     

East Asian Economic Growth and its Implications for Regional Security

Rapid economic growth in East Asia is changing the nature of international relations in the region. In the economic sphere, mercantilist policies of promoting exports and limiting imports contributed to economic tensions between rapidly growing economies in the region and the region's major trading partner, the United States. These tensions over bilateral trade issues began between Japan and United States, moved on next to South Korea and Taiwan, and have now moved from there to China. In the security field, economic growth in China is leading to a major shift in the balance of power in the region. China's steadily increasing GDP is being accompanied by a comparable rise in its military expenditures despite the fact that China faces no obvious external threats at the present time. China's long term desire to be able to defend against any outside power probably means that this increase in defense expenditures will continue for the next decade or two. North Korea continues to be a threat to stability in the region but only because of its capacity to do enormous damage in one last suicidal attack. The one area where China's rising military expenditures could lead to major confrontation on terms very different from those that would occur today is Taiwan.