The relationship between urbanisation and cross-national homicide rates: robustness across multiple estimation methods

Urbanisation has generally been found to be a non-significant predictor of homicide rates in cross-national studies. Despite this, there is strong theoretical support for the presence of a positive association between the two. The present study analyses data for up to 57 nations for the period 1993–2005 and examines the relationship between urbanisation and homicide using pooled ordinary least squares, feasible generalised least squares, panel-corrected standard errors, fixed-effects, and random-effects estimation. The results show that urbanisation is one of the strongest predictors of homicide in the cross-national context. This is consistent with the expected relationship according to modernisation theory and suggests that rapidly urbanising nations should be concerned with the unintended consequences of urbanisation.     

POVERTY,INFANT MORTALITY,AND HOMICIDE RATES IN CROSS-NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE: ASSESSMENTS OF CRITERION AND CONSTRUCT VALIDITY*

This article assesses the extent to which the infant mortality rate might be treated as a “proxy” for poverty in research on cross-national variation in homicide rates. We have assembled a pooled, cross-sectional time-series data set for 16 advanced nations from the 1993–2000 period that includes standard measures of infant mortality and homicide and contains information on the following commonly used “income-based” poverty measures: a measure intended to reflect “absolute” deprivation and a measure intended to reflect “relative” deprivation. With these data, we assess the criterion validity of the infant mortality rate with reference to the two income-based poverty measures. Also, we estimate the effects of the various indicators of disadvantage on homicide rates in regression models, thereby assessing construct validity. The results reveal that the infant mortality rate is correlated more strongly with “relative poverty” than with “absolute poverty,” although much unexplained variance remains. In the regression models shown here, the measure of infant mortality and the relative poverty measure yield significant positive effects on homicide rates, whereas the absolute poverty measure does not exhibit any significant effects. The results of our analyses suggest that it would be premature to dismiss relative deprivation in cross-national research on homicide, and that disadvantage is conceptualized and measured best as a multidimensional construct.     

Opportunities for property victimization: Fixed and random effects models in a cross-national scope

Cross-national research on victimization often does not consider the cultural effects on opportunities leading to victimization. The current study uses a routine activities/lifestyles theoretical framework to examine the opportunities leading to two types of property victimization across forty-five countries. I employ fixed effect and random effect models in efforts to find the best explanation of theft and burglary victimization. The results indicate going out in the evening for leisure activities is an important source of opportunity for both types of property victimization. While a fixed effect model offers the most appropriate explanation for burglary victimization, theft is best explained by a random effects model. For theft victimization, variation in whether or not respondents work or go to school is explained, in part, by the level of development of the country. The findings provide evidence that there are different explanations of opportunity for burglary and theft victimization in a cross-national scope.     

The Cohort-Size Sample-Size Conundrum: An Empirical Analysis and Assessment Using Homicide Arrest Data from 1960 to 1999

A number of studies use the Age-Period-Cohort Characteristic (APCC) model to address the impact of cohort related factors on the age distribution of homicide offending. Several of these studies treat birth cohorts as spanning several years, an operationalization that most closely matches tenets of cohort theory, yet sharply reduces the number of observations available for analysis. Other studies define birth cohorts as those born within a single year, an operationalization that is theoretically problematic, but provides many more observations for analysis. We address the sample size problem by applying a time-series-cross-section model (panel model) with age-period-specific homicide arrest data from the United States for each year from 1960 to 1999, while operationalizing cohorts as five-year birth cohorts. Our panel model produces results that are very similar to those obtained from traditional multiyear APCC models. Substantively, the results provide a replication of work showing the importance of relative cohort size and cohort variations in family structure for explaining variations in age-period-specific homicide rates. The additional observations provided by our approach allow us to examine these relationships over time, and we find substantively important changes. The year-by-year estimates of the age distribution of homicide offending help us to examine the model during the epidemic of youth homicide.     

Structural correlates of female homicide: A cross-national analysis

The present study went beyond previous cross-national homicide research, which has largely focused on combined (male and female) rates of homicide offending, by using gender-disaggregated homicide arrest figures. The study included controls for the clearance rate and the percentage of homicides that were attempts, and included data for forty-eight countries across multiple levels of development. The author compared the effects of development/modernization and opportunity on female homicide rates to their effects on male homicide rates. Results indicated that, overall, structural predictors had very similar effects on male and female homicide rates. Both rates were lower in countries with a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and neither male nor female homicide rates were related to urbanization. Countries with a higher number of people per household had a lower rate of both male and female homicide offending; however, this relationship only held when percent young was excluded from the model.     

Understanding sexual homicide

Abstract

Sexual homicide is a crime that receives much media attention, but one that still has a relatively small research base compared to other crimes. Although the idea of someone deriving sexual gratification from or during the killing of another is an anathema to many, forensic professionals need to understand sexual homicide and the range of circumstances and motivations that lie behind it. This paper explores this complex crime: it illustrates the various definitions and labels used; it suggests that sexual homicide is rare and is committed by individuals who, although having troubled histories, may not differ from other offenders. Then, by examining the various legal and behavioural circumstances in which sexual homicide can occur, this paper illustrates the diversity of sexual homicide and presents it in a more understandable manner. Finally, the paper suggests that knowledge of this diversity is required both for investigative and clinical purposes.     

Reliability and validity of cross-national homicide data: a comparison of UN and WHO data

Data reliability and validity are methodological concerns in cross-national analyses of crime, but there is little agreement on which source of data provides the most reliable estimates. Moreover, few studies have examined the potential threat to validity posed by unclassified deaths. The current study aims to (1) assess the reliability of cross-national homicide data from the United Nations (UN) and the World Health Organization (WHO); and (2) investigate the impact of unclassified deaths on the validity of WHO data. Findings indicate that UN and WHO homicide rates (n=56) differ in magnitude, but produce similar outcomes. The UN data produce more robust results and statistical models with less error. The WHO data are more stable and reliable over time, and better suited for longitudinal analyses. Analyses drawing on WHO data should not disregard unclassified deaths because their inclusion provides a more accurate estimate of the true number of homicides.     

Armed Americans: The impact of firearm availability on national homicide rates

This study examines the relationship between firearm availability and national homicide rates. The theoretical and empirical literatures are reviewed, and a cross-national two-stage least squares regression analysis is described. The relationship between a circa 1990 measure of firearm availability and the average 1990–1994 homicide rate is examined across 36 countries. Two-stage least squares regression, which controls for homicide's effect on firearm availability in addition to a number of other confounding factors, reveals a statistically significant positive effect of firearm availability on national homicide rates. The magnitude of the association is considerable. The observed relationship is found to be insensitive to sample composition. Results also indicate that homicide rates do not influence levels of firearm availability. The limitations of the study and avenues for future research are discussed.     

Social support, ethnic heterogeneity, and homicide: A cross-national approach

This study examined the manner that social support theory accounts for the dynamic between social support, ethnic heterogeneity, and homicide at the cross-national level. Using five alternative measures of social support, the findings indicated that social support influences homicide, but these effects are somewhat contingent on the type or dimension of social support provided. Additionally, the analyses performed here revealed that social support and ethnic heterogeneity interact to influence rates of homicide. Taken together, these findings revealed that social support theory provides a useful foundation for exploring the factors that influence homicide at the cross-national level.     

Risk Terrain Modeling and Socio-Economic Stratification: Identifying Risky Places for Violent Crime Victimization in Bogotá, Colombia

This research focused on the effect of the built environment on Bogotá’s violent crime by using the Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) technique. The current study used 17 ecological variables, including micro-level data on the spatial distribution of socio-economic strata, and the location of an array of businesses and other features of the landscape. As suggested by the results of this study, the spatial distribution of violent crime in Bogotá is highly correlated with the allocation of socio-economic strata throughout its geography. A statistically valid RTM analysis identified the micro-level risk factors associated with three types of violent crime incidents, namely homicide, assault, and theft incidents. These results suggest that future violent crime incidents are more likely to occur at a reduced number of high-risk micro-places. Moreover, while homicide and assault incidents were more likely to cluster within the poorest areas of the city, theft incidents presented a higher risk of victimization near the city center, where economic activity and suitable targets concentrate. This study offers a unique account regarding the effect of socio-economic segregation on violent crime victimization across Bogotá’s geography and within different socio-economic strata classifications.     

CROSS-NATIONAL VARIATION IN HOMICIDES: IS RACE A FACTOR?

J. P. Rushton has done research indicating that predominantly black nations have higher rates of violent crime than predominantly white nations, which have higher rates than predominantly Asian nations. He attributes these differences to constitutional, inheritable factors on which the races vary. This article discusses the numerous problems with Rushton's use of international crime data and analysis, foremost of which are his use of one-way analysis of variance and lack of consideration of other causes of variation. Regression analysis-including dummy race variables and other relevant explanatory variables-indicates no significant association between race and cross-national homicide rates, the best and probably only valid indicator of cross-national variation in violent crime. This is the case whether reanalyzing Rush-ton's data or analyzing properly adjusted, inspected, and selected homicide rates.     

Operationalizing Gang Membership

Abstract

Although an extensive amount of research in the last decade has focused on juvenile gangs and the consequences of gang involvement, there has been considerable debate in the literature concerning both the conceptualization and the operationalization of the term gang membership. This research examines the extent to which the operationalization of gang membership impacts prevalence rates of both gang membership and delinquent involvement and whether this varies by gender. The findings suggest that the type of operationalization utilized by the researcher does impact both the prevalence rates of gang membership and delinquent involvement. Further, this impact varies by gender. An unrestricted definition of gang membership compared to more restrictive definitions yields conflicting findings with regard to the impact of gender on gang membership. Whereas the unrestricted measure of gang membership yielded significant gender differences, the more restrictive measure of organized gang membership produced no significant gender differences. The findings indicate the need to further address the issue of operationalization in our empirical studies of gang membership and to be sensitive to the potential impact this may have on gender differences reported by researchers.     

Intimate homicide between Asians and non-Asians: the impact of community context

This study tests two competing hypotheses regarding the social structural dynamics of intimate homicide: backlash versus collective efficacy. This study also examines the role of race in how social factors specified in each hypothesis affect intimate homicide. Data are from the California Vital Statistics and Homicide Data, 1990-1999. Results from a negative binomial regression partially support both hypotheses. In terms of magnitude, social deprivation is more important than both the backlash and collective efficacy factors. Asian intimate homicide is susceptible to the ability of communities to resolve commonly identified problems, whereas non-Asian intimate homicide is vulnerable to the depletion of socioeconomic resources. Implications of these findings are discussed in this article.     

ARE UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS A VALID INDICATOR OF THE INDEX CRIMES? AN AFFIRMATIVE ANSWER WITH MINOR QUALIFICATIONS*

For more than two decades, the validity and reliability of official statistics on crime have been treated as highly questionable. Recently a number of studies have investigated the construction of official statistics on crime and issues related to their reliability and validity. However, there has been no recent attempt to bring together and evaluate these studies; thus, we do not know what official statistics mean and how we should interpret them. In the present paper it is argued that it is now possible to develop an understanding of what official statistics measure. It appears that both citizens and the police are in general agreement about what a serious crime is: it involves bodily injury (or serious threat of bodily injury), the property stolen is of high value, the act is committed by a stranger, or it involves breaking and entering. The authors argue that the perceived seriousness of the crime, first and primarily as defined by the victim, second as determined by the police, apparently accounts for most of the variance in whether a crime is reported and officially recorded; personal characteristics of the offender and victim have only minor effects. It is concluded that the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), as measured by the FBI Index of Crime, are valid indicators of serious crimes as defined by the citizenry. The evidence supporting this conclusion is very substantial with regard to motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, and homicide, while with larceny, rape, and aggravated assault, the evidence supporting this conclusion is substantial but does require the interpretation of conflicting evidence.     

POPULATION DIVERSITY AND CROSS-NATIONAL HOMICIDE: THE EFFECTS OF INEQUALITY AND HETEROGENEITY*

This study examines the impact of income inequality and ethnic heterogeneity on homicide rates for a sample of 32 nations. The results of the analyses indicate that vertical social direrentiation, as measured by income inequality, and horizontal differentiation, as indexed by ethnic heterogeneity, have signijicant main effects on cross-national homicide. Additionally, evidence is presented suggesting an interaction effect on inequaliry and heterogeneity on homicide. It appears that increased ethnic heterogeneity exacerbates the impact of income inequality on homicide rates.     

A Cross-National Analysis of the Mediating Effect of Economic Deprivation on Crime

This study develops and tests a model of economic deprivation and crime using data from 52 nations for the years 1995–1999. The model, centering on the role of absolute and relative economic deprivation in mediating crime, predicts that social change causes variation in economic deprivation, which, in turn, leads to variation in crime rates. The results show that the relative deprivation variable, income inequality, mediates a large portion of the effects of two social change variables, population growth and urbanization, on homicide, while one of the absolute deprivation variables, GDP, transmits a great part of the effects of social change variables on theft. Both social change variables were found to have a weak direct connection to homicide and theft rates. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

The Murder Mystery: Police Effectiveness and Homicide

Objective

Previous aggregate analyses of the effect of police on crime show that increases in police staffing are especially effective at preventing homicide. This conflicts with evidence that suggests standard police methods should be more effective at preventing robbery, auto theft, and other property crimes. My objective is to reconcile the two.

Methods

Regression of crime rates on uniformed police staffing and other economic and demographic covariates, for a panel of 59 US cities for the period 1970–2013.

Results

Lagged crime rates are strong and statistically significant predictors of both policing staffing and crime rates, particularly homicide. When lags are included in the specification, the apparent effect of police on homicide drops by more than 70 %; there is little change in the effect of police on other crimes. Findings are robust with respect to specification and method.

Conclusions

Previous studies omitted lags and overstated the effectiveness of police on homicide. Because murder accounts for almost 40 % of all costs of crime in US cities, it is no longer clear whether increasing police force size is a cost-effective way to cut crime. Improving police tactics is more likely to work and less expensive.

     

Explaining gang homicides in Newark, New Jersey: Collective behavior or social disorganization?

Although numerous studies examined the distinction between gang and non-gang homicides, there is nonetheless a continued need for research in this domain. Specifically, few studies investigated the etiological differences between these homicides at the multivariate level or attempted to examine the relative robustness of the primary explanations of gang homicides—social disorganization and Decker's (1996) collective behavior hypothesis of gang violence. This article therefore addresses this void by focusing on gang-related homicides in Newark, New Jersey over a sixty-six month period. The findings of this study suggested that there were significant differences between gang and non-gang homicides at the incident level. At the multivariate level, the authors found that homicides precipitated by the operationalization of Decker's (1996) escalation hypothesis were more likely to be gang-related. Conversely, the social disorganization measure did not predict gang homicide, while poverty was a significant predictor. When measures of both potential explanations were entered into the same model only the micro-level escalation hypothesis retained its significance.     

盗窃犯罪及其刑法适用研究

盗窃犯罪数量多、危害大。当前的盗窃犯罪表现出新的特点,有其复杂的原因,应当加强防范。适用刑法,首先应当认真分析、正确认定;其次应当量刑轻缓、罪刑相当。