HEURISTICS AND BIASES,RATIONAL CHOICE,AND SANCTION PERCEPTIONS*

The relevance of several cognitive heuristics and related biases for rational choice perspectives on crime, and for perceptions of sanction risk, were investigated. We present findings from a series of randomized experiments, embedded in two nationwide surveys of American adults (18 and older) in 2015 (N = 1,004 and 623). The results reveal that offender estimates of detection risk are less probabilistically precise and more situationally variable than under prevailing criminological perspectives, most notably, rational choice and Bayesian learning theories. This, in turn, allows various decision‐making heuristics—such as anchoring and availability—to influence and potentially bias the perceptual updating process.     

Beyond Rational Choice: the Hot/Cool Perspective of Criminal Decision Making

This paper proposes a general framework of criminal decision making that assumes both ‘cool’ cognition and ‘hot’ affect, i.e. feelings, to influence criminal choice. Drawing from judgment and decision making research and social psychology, the hot/cool perspective extends rational choice and deterrence theories by explaining how affect is likely to influence criminal decisions alongside cognitive considerations, such as the perceived costs and benefits of crime. It is shown how the hot/cool perspective offers a more realistic account of criminal decision making processes than existing decision models and approaches and also allows for the explanation of criminal behaviors that are difficult to explain in terms of rational choice.     

The law and economics of supranationalism: the European Union and the subsidiarity principle in collective action perspective

This article, prepared for an issue devoted to the work of Judge Richard A. Posner, considers the implications of law and economics for the structure of supranational organizations, with particular attention to the application of collective action theory to the relationships among states in the EU. After discussing the connections between this approach and Judge Posner’s work, the article describes collective action theory and its implications for our understanding of the state and of relationships among states. From this perspective, supranational organizations such as the EU can be understood as institutional structures that facilitate collective action among states by reducing the transactions and enforcement costs of making and implementing collective decisions. At the same time, the delegation of authority to supranational institutions creates agency costs for states and their peoples because the interests of the state and its people diverge from the interests of the collective in some instances. Viewed in this perspective, the institutional structure of the EU—like that of other supranational organizations or federal nation states—reflects an effort to strike a balance between collective decision making and local control so as to maximize the collective gains and minimize the resulting agency costs. Understood in these terms, various features of the EU’s institutional design make sense. The ordinary legislative process permits the EU to act without the unanimous consent of member states, thus reducing transactions costs in those areas where collective action is necessary, particularly in relation to the creation and regulation of the internal market. The EU reduces enforcement costs through principles of direct applicability or effects and the supremacy of EU law, which are effective legal restraints in states governed by the rule of law. The institutional structure of the EU also incorporates a representative and deliberative process for collective action that helps control the resulting agency costs for member states and their peoples through supermajority and co-decisional requirements. The collective action perspective also illuminates the function of the subsidiarity principle and the enhanced role of national parliaments in its enforcement.     

WHERE OFFENDERS CHOOSE TO ATTACK: A DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF ROBBERIES IN CHICAGO*

Why do robbers choose a particular area to commit an offense? Do they rob close to home? Do they search for areas with suitable and attractive targets? What keeps them away from certain areas? To answer these questions, a model is developed of how robbers choose target areas. The model draws on various theoretical and empirical traditions, which include environmental criminology, journey to crime research, gang research, and social disorganization theory. Testing the model on cleared robbery cases in Chicago in the years 1996–1998, we demonstrate that robbery location choice is related to characteristics of target areas, to areas where offenders live, to joint characteristics of the resident and target areas, and to characteristics of the offenders themselves. The presence of illegal markets and other crime generators and crime attractors make areas attractive for robbers, whereas collective efficacy seems to keep them out. Distance as well as racial and ethnic segregation restrict the mobility of offenders.     

FAMILY MATTERS: EFFECTS OF FAMILY MEMBERS’ RESIDENTIAL AREAS ON CRIME LOCATION CHOICE*

According to crime pattern theory, offenders are likely to select crime locations within their awareness space. Previous studies have shown that offenders often commit crimes within their current and former residential areas and in areas they previously targeted. However, offenders’ awareness spaces obviously consist of more locations that potentially influence their crime location choices. This study examines the importance of the residential areas of offenders’ family members. Most offenders visit their families at least occasionally and consequently get familiar with the areas in which their families live. It is hypothesized that family members’ residential areas are at increased risk of being targeted. Unique data were used to reconstruct residential histories of the parents, siblings, and children of 7,910 offenders who committed 19,420 offenses. The results of discrete spatial choice models showed that residential areas of family members are indeed at increased risk of being targeted. Current familial residential areas had stronger and more consistent effects than had former familial residential areas. Effects were strongest for the residential areas of offenders’ children compared with those of their parents and siblings. The residential areas of male and female family members affected the crime location choices of male and female offenders equally.     

On the Origins of the Violent Neighborhood: A Study of the Nature and Predictors of Crime‐Type Differentiation across Chicago Neighborhoods

Little of the literature on crime at the neighborhood level examines whether and why some crime types predominate in a given neighborhood over other types. Many macro‐level theories do make predictions about the sort of crimes that occur in some neighborhoods, although they remain largely untested. This study focuses on one of these theories, differential opportunity, and its predictions about the making of violent neighborhoods. Drawing on various data sources, this inquiry determines whether crime profiles differ across Chicago neighborhoods—that is, whether there is significant variation across neighborhoods on ratio of violent crimes to other crime types. Next, it also investigates whether the structural factors implicated in the differential opportunity perspective distinguish these neighborhoods or only predict the incidence of crime. The results reveal significant differences in the distribution of crimes across neighborhoods, as well as show that certain factors identify neighborhoods that favor violence over other crimes.     

DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites—“do they simply move crime around the corner”? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby—what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street‐level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as “catchment areas” from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20‐minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas.     

TESTING A RATIONAL CHOICE MODEL OF AIRLINE HIJACKINGS*

Using data that combines information from the Federal Aviation Administration, the RAND Corporation and a newly developed database on global terrorist activity, we are able to examine trends in 1,101 attempted aerial hijackings that occurred around the world from 1931 to 2003. We have especially complete information for 828 hijackings that occurred before 1986. Using a rational choice theoretical framework, we use continuous‐time survival analysis to estimate the impact of several major counterhijacking interventions on the hazard of differently motivated hijacking attempts and logistic regression analysis to model the predictors of successful hijackings. Some of these interventions use certainty‐based strategies of target hardening to reduce the perceived likelihood of success. Others focus on raising the perceived costs of hijacking by increasing the severity of punishment. We also assess which strategies were most effective in deterring hijackers whose major purpose was related to terrorism. We found support for the conclusion that new hijacking attempts were less likely to be undertaken when the certainty of apprehension was increased through metal detectors and law enforcement at passenger checkpoints. We also found that fewer hijackers attempted to divert airliners to Cuba once that country made it a crime to hijack flights. Our results support the contagion view that hijacking rates significantly increase after a series of hijackings closely clustered in time—but only when these attempts were successful. Finally, we found that the policy interventions examined here significantly decreased the likelihood of nonterrorist but not that of terrorist hijackings.     

Improved street lighting and crime prevention

This article reports on a systematic review—incorporating meta-analytic techniques—of the effects of improved street lighting on crime. Studies were included if they had before-and-after measures of crime in experimental and control areas. Eight American evaluation studies met the criteria for inclusion, and their results were mixed. Four studies found that improved street lighting was effective in reducing crime, while the other four found that it was not effective. However, five more-recent British evaluation studies showed that improved lighting led to decreases in crime. In two studies, the financial savings from reduced crimes greatly exceeded the financial costs of the improved street lighting. A meta-analysis found that the 13 studies, taken together, showed that improved lighting led to reductions in crime. The overall reduction in crime after improved lighting was 20% in experimental areas compared with control areas. Since nighttime crimes did not decrease more than daytime crimes, a theory focusing on the role of street lighting in increasing community pride seems more plausible than a theory focusing on increased surveillance. Future research should be designed to test the main theories of the effects of improved lighting more explicitly and should measure crime using police records, surveys of victims, and self-reports of offending.     

Incivilities in nonmetropolitan communities: The effects of structural constraints, social conditions, and crime

Guided by social disorganization theory and the emerging concept of collective efficacy, this study used three sources of data, including community surveys administered to 1,125 citizens nested in thirty-one residential units, and hierarchical modeling techniques to examine the effects of structural features and collective social processes, net of property crime (i.e., burglary) and citizen-level sociodemographic characteristics, on perceived incivilities (i.e., signs of physical decay and social disorder) in nonmetropolitan communities. The results showed that respondents living in economically disadvantaged geographic areas were significantly more likely to perceive their immediate surroundings in more negative terms (i.e., higher levels of incivilities). Respondents living in residential units characterized by higher levels of collective efficacy (i.e., a composite measure consisting of both cohesion and control), however, reported significantly fewer incivility problems. When assessed separately, social cohesion partially mediated the effects of economic disadvantage. The findings indicated that social disorganization theory generalizes to less densely populated, nonmetropolitan communities.     

THE APPLICATION AND ROBUSTNESS OF THE RATIONAL CHOICE PERSPECTIVE IN THE STUDY OF INTOXICATED AND ANGRY INTENTIONS TO AGGRESS*

Using a rational choice framework, this study examines the effects of alcohol and anger on violent decision making. Male students of legal drinking age participated in a randomized experiment in which intoxication and anger levels were manipulated. Participants read a “bar fight” scenario and completed a series of questions measuring aggressive intentions and the perceived consequences of violence. Results indicate that alcohol and anger interacted to increase one measure of aggressivity, but the perceived costs and benefits of violence were unaffected. Exploratory analyses call into question the robustness of the rational choice model, suggesting that the perspective may not be the general explanation for crime it is proclaimed to be.     

UNDERSTANDING CRIME DISPLACEMENT: AN APPLICATION OF RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY

It has been claimed that the rational choice perspective, which sees criminal behavior as the outcome of decisions and choices made by the offender, can provide a useful framework for analyzing crime control policies. By developing the concept of "choice-structuring properties," which refers to the constellation of opportunities, costs, and benefits attaching to particular kinds of crime, this paper attempts to develop rational choice theory in order to improve analysis of crime displacement—a concept frequently invoked by the critics of opportunity-reducing measures of crime prevention.     

CAN RATIONAL CHOICE BE CONSIDERED A GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME? EVIDENCE FROM INDIVIDUAL‐LEVEL PANEL DATA

In the last few decades, rational choice theory has emerged as a bedrock theory in the fields of economics, sociology, psychology, and political science. Although rational choice theory has been available to criminologists for many years now, the field has not embraced it as other disciplines have. Moreover, rational choice scholars have fueled this skepticism of the theory's generality by modeling offender decision making that is one‐sided—large on the costs of crime (sanction threats), short on the benefits of crime. In this article, we directly assess the generality of rational choice theory by examining a fully specified model in a population that is often presumed to be less rational—adolescents from lower socioeconomic families who commit both instrumental (property) and expressive crimes (violence/drugs). By using a panel of N = 1,354 individuals, we find that offending behavior is consistent with rational responses to changes in the perceived costs and benefits of crime even after eliminating fixed unobserved heterogeneity and other time‐varying confounders, and these results are robust across different subgroups. The findings support our argument that rational choice theory is a general theory of crime.     

Victim survey research: Implications for criminal justice planning

The historic use of offense reports by police agencies for decision making is examined in the light of another data source — victim surveys. Survey information data can be used to: (1) more reliably estimate the extent and distribution of crime in a community; (2) evaluate the effectiveness of innovative programs; (3) develop police-sponsored public education programs; (4) describe the characteristics of victims and high crime areas; (5) sensitize police to the needs of the victim; and (6) develop police training programs that include dealing with the victim.     

A SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY TO CRIME: EFFECTS OF RESIDENTIAL HISTORY ON CRIME LOCATION CHOICE*

Many offenses take place close to where the offender lives. Anecdotal evidence suggests that offenders also might commit crimes near their former homes. Building on crime pattern theory and combining information from police records and other sources, this study confirms that offenders who commit robberies, residential burglaries, thefts from vehicles, and assaults are more likely to target their current and former residential areas than similar areas they never lived in. In support of the argument that spatial awareness mediates the effects of past and current residence, it also is shown that areas of past and present residence are more likely to be targeted if the offender lived in the area for a long time instead of briefly and if the offender has moved away from the area only recently rather than a long time ago. The theoretical implications of these findings and their use for investigative purposes are discussed, and suggestions for future inquiry are made.     

FEAR OF CRIME AMONG KOREAN AMERICANS IN CHICAGO COMMUNITIES

This study examines Korean Americans' perceived incivilities, perceived crime risk, and fear of crime using an explanatory model combining group threat theory of racial hostility and risk interpretation theory of fear of crime. In particular, our hierarchical linear models show strong effects on fear of crime for English proficiency, length of U.S. residence, preference for ethnic Korean media, perceived risk of future black rioting, and anti-black prejudice. We discuss the importance of cultural factors and the dynamics of race and ethnic conflicts in explaining fear of crime, and suggest directions for future research on race relations, perceived victimization risks, and fear of crime.     

DETERRENCE,CRIMINAL OPPORTUNITIES,AND POLICE

In this article, we join three distinct literatures on crime control—the deterrence literature, the policing literature as it relates to crime control, and the environmental and opportunity perspectives literature. Based on empirical findings and theory from these literatures, we pose a mathematical model of the distribution of criminal opportunities and offender decision making on which of those opportunities to victimize. Criminal opportunities are characterized in terms of the risk of apprehension that attends their victimization. In developing this model, our primary focus is on how police might affect the distribution of criminal opportunities that are attractive to would‐be offenders. The theoretical model we pose, however, is generalizable to explain how changes in other relevant target characteristics, such as potential gain, could affect target attractiveness. We demonstrate that the model has important implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of police deployment strategies such as hot spots policing, random patrol, and problem‐oriented policing. The theoretical structure also makes clear why the clearance rate is a fundamentally flawed metric of police performance. Future research directions suggested by the theoretical model are discussed.     

Examining the relationship between routine activities theory and social disorganization: An analysis of property crime victimization

A property crime victimization survey was conducted of households in both high and tow crime neighborhoods in one southern city. A response rate of 68.5% was obtained. The study tested the premises of both the routine activities and social disorganization theories as they contribute to the likelihood of property crime victimization at the individual level. It was found that routine activities theory explained 28% of the property crime variance in the socially disorganized area (high crime) while only explaining 11% of the same variance in the low crime area. Separate measurements were used to establish the level of social disorganization in the two geographical areas. The beta coefficients reveal that in the high crime area, those most likely to be property crime victims are white, single homeowners who are not at home from 6 p.m. to 11 p.m., who have relatives living in their neighborhoods, and who interact with their neighbors. These findings lend marginal support to the routine activities model.     

Revisiting Broken Windows Theory: Examining the Sources of the Discriminant Validity of Perceived Disorder and Crime

Two lines of critiques have developed in reference to broken windows theory: (1) Concentrated disadvantage appears to be more intricately linked with disorder than the theory allows for; and (2) There is concern that disorder and crime lack discriminant validity in that people do not actually distinguish between the two. The present study integrated these two perspectives by examining whether concentrated disadvantage—including disorder itself—affects the extent to which people view disorder and crime as separate problems. Multivariate models showed that people who believe their neighborhood to be more disorderly were more likely to make distinctions between disorder and crime. Theoretical recommendations for future tests of broken windows theory are presented and the policy implications for order maintenance policing programs are discussed.     

Uses and abuses of eyewitness identification confidence

When attempting to identify an offender whom they saw commit a crime, eyewitnesses are frequently asked to indicate their confidence in their memories. Confidence judgments may be expressed prior to seeing a line‐up, after making an identification decision or in the courtroom. Such judgments can exert an important influence on decision making within the criminal justice system. Here, I examine theory and evidence that bear on the likely usefulness of such confidence judgments for diagnosing the accuracy of the associated identification. Contrary to often expressed views, I argue that confidence recorded immediately after the identification test is informative about the identity of the offender. Confidence expressions obtained at other times are likely to be misleading. Important directions for future confidence research are identified.