The Australian Right in the “Asian Century”: Inequality and Implications for Social Democracy

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the policy discourse of Australian right-wing governments, exploring how such governments have combined neo-liberal economic policies with social conservatism, populism, cultural nationalism and forms of authoritarianism. It also examines the resulting response of social democratic political parties. As a predominantly Western country situated in the Asia-Pacific region, Australian experience offers interesting insights into the domestic politics of right-wing governments facing the changing geo-political and geo-economic imperatives of the “Asian Century.” Conservative Australian governments have reasserted traditional Anglo-centric national identity and used competition from key Asian countries to further justify market-driven policies, reduced welfare benefits and reduced industrial relations standards. The social democratic Australian Labor Party has responded to right-wing government policy by placing an increased emphasis on challenging social and economic inequality. However, Labor’s own plans for equitable economic growth potentially underestimate the challenges posed by the intermeshing of the Australian and Asian economies and provide insights into the dilemmas that a changing geo-economics poses for Western social democracy more broadly. Meanwhile Australian conservatism is facing not just challenges from its social democratic opponent but also from far-right populist forces critical of globalisation.     

Economic Growth,Regime Insecurity,and Military Strategy: Explaining the Rise of Noncombat Operations in China

Abstract

Although China's armed forces have yet to complete its ambitious modernization program, its military strategy has begun to emphasize the ability to conduct noncombat operations such as disaster relief and peacekeeping in addition to traditional war fighting. This new component of China's military strategy is best explained by an unexpected relationship between economic growth and regime security. Although growth is key to the legitimacy of leaders in developing countries, it also creates new sources of domestic unrest and increases the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks, both of which, if unchecked, can harm future growth. As a result, developing countries such as China may use their armed forces to maintain political stability and provide services that the state lacks, such as emergency disaster relief. These conclusions are based on original data from China.     

Economic crisis,families, and family policy in the Baltic states, 2009–2014

ABSTRACT

The three Baltic countries experienced the most rapid population decline throughout the 1990s and 2000s in Europe. The resulting critical demographic situation motivated the governments of the Baltic states to pay more political attention to family policy issues than in the rest of Europe. The aim of the paper is to analyze the development of family policy in Baltic countries and factors that influenced it during the 2009 economic crisis. Also, the outcomes in terms of child poverty and fertility are highlighted. Results show that the economic resources and fertility level had an essential impact on family policy in the Baltic states. Economic support to families, in turn, directly alleviate the poverty level of families and indirectly influence fertility.     

The Utilization of “Surplus” labor in the people's republic of China

Abstract

For decades, economists concerned with the problems of economic development have noted the typical existence of surplus labor in heavily populated, underdeveloped countries, most notably those of Asia, in which the factor endowment consists of abundant and often rapidly growing labor forces coupled with scarcity of both land and capital. In such countries, the vast majority of the population usually is engaged in agricultural activities and, at a minimum, is characterized by substantial seasonal unemployment during the slack agricultural times of the year and, more typically, also has substantial disguised unemployment throughout the entire year. Also characteristic of such countries is a continuing large-scale migration of labor from rural to urban areas, which transforms the disguised agricultural unemployment into open urban unemployment as the newly (and not-so-newly) arrived urban residents discover that the jobs they seek are substantially fewer than the number of job-seekers. Furthermore, even those fortunate enough to find urban employment often appear to be substantially underemployed, for example, in jobs within the government sector, in petty retail trade, and as messengers and private household servants. Even in countries that have been experiencing relatively high levels of investment and fairly rapid rates of economic growth, the employment problems are far from eliminated and cause social and political problems as well as economic ones. It seems ironic that in such countries there exists simultaneously so many people seeking work and so much work that could be accomplished and could raise basic living standards if the unemployed (and underemployed) workers could be engaged in productive (and more productive) activities.     

A paper tiger? Political implications of an export‐led growth strategy for South Africa

The paper examines the theoretical and empirical debates surrounding the benefits of an export‐led growth strategy. The experience of two newly industrialised countries are analyzed and discussed in relation to South Africa's political and economic position. The writers attempt to show that an uncritical acceptance of ‘recipes’ for economic development, which do not take into account specific domestic political and economic factors, could lead to inappropriate policy formulation and implementation.     

The three Mini Dragons: Economic development in Thailand,Malaysia, and Indonesia

The rapid pace of economic growth in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia indicates that all three ASEAN countries are quickly becoming Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs). Yet a close comparison of the three leads the author to conclude that there are dissimilarities in their economic development resulting from each country's unique social and economic conditions. Masato Hayashida was a senior economist in the Economic Research Division at The Mitsubishi Bank before being seconded to IIPS as a senior research fellow.     

Building Neo-liberal Markets and Other Agendas: The Politics of Risk Management at AusAID

Abstract

This article analyses emerging approaches by donors to risk management, focusing on the case of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). It suggests that AusAID's understanding and management of risk are expressions of particular political and social interests and, subsequently, that its approach to risk management is inherently political in nature. While AusAID's policies and guidelines on risk management identify a wide range of risks as being relevant to the agency's work – including risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development – in practice it has focused on managing risks to the building of neo-liberal markets, both within Australia and in developing countries, and the Australian government's foreign policy objectives. To illustrate these points, we present an analysis of AusAID's approach to risk management in a major economic governance project, the Philippines-Australia Partnership for Economic Governance Reforms. We conclude by indicating ways in which donor approaches to risk management can be revised to give greater attention to the needs of the poor and civil society, while acknowledging that such revisions may be contingent upon prior changes in the structure of power and interest and/or institutional characteristics of aid policy-making processes in donor countries.     

Sovereignty–Security Nexus,Domestic Constraints,and the Taiwan Independence Policy (1988–2010)

Abstract

This article explains the rise and fall of the so-called Taiwan independence policy during the period of 1988–2010. It defines the Taiwan independence policy as an internal political move by the Taiwanese government to establish Taiwan as a separate and sovereign political entity on the world stage. It reviews two existing prevailing theses – electoral politics and shifting identity – and points out their weaknesses, the former's being its indeterminacy and unfalsifiability, and the latter's being its inadequacy to explain policy change. A new explanation focusing on relative power shift (military balance, alliance strength, and diplomatic standing) and domestic constraints (resource and political constraints) is then proposed to explain the rise and fall of the Taiwan independence policy. A brief examination of the 1988–2010 cross-strait history lends strong support to the theory.     

Situating the European Union within South Africa's foreign policy calculus

ABSTRACT

This article reviews the importance of the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership in South Africa's foreign policy calculations after a decade in existence. While political differences have been open for all to see in cases such as Zimbabwe and South Africa's notice of withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, the enhanced political dialogue is important in ensuring that the partners have a greater appreciation of the complexities faced by foreign policy-makers on both sides. This study is thus interested in uncovering why political relations have lagged behind the economic and social aspects of the relationship. After assessing South Africa's foreign policy interests towards the EU, it then reviews where the political fault lines have been located since the adoption of the Joint Action Plan before identifying areas of cooperation in meeting South Africa’s interests as stated in the 2011 white paper on foreign policy.     

Authoritarianism and UMNO's factional conflicts

Abstract

Do democratic political regimes facilitate more robust environmental and natural resource regulatory policies? Yes, in many cases. Using detailed cases of natural resource policy making in Thailand, however, we find that neither political parties nor civil society nor state institutions do well in representing diffuse interests, mediating among conflicting ones or defining compromises and securing their acceptance by most key players. Gains in environmental or natural resource policy making have not been dramatically more likely under democratic regimes than under “liberal authoritarian” ones with broad freedoms of speech and association. We argue that Thailand's democratic political system features weak linkages between groups in society and political parties, lacks alternative encompassing or brokering institutions in civil society, and that these features account for a tendency for political democracy to fail to deliver on its policy potential in Thailand.     

The rise of China: Threats,uncertainties, and opportunities

The attraction of China's enormous market is lending strength to its position in international negotiations, and China's high rate of economic development is serving to reinforce the legitimacy of its political system. But China's increasing defense expenditures, made possible by such economic growth, are heightening tension among neighboring countries who perceive China as a threat. Kiichi Saeki examines these positive and negative implications of China's rapid economic growth. Saeki is concurrently executive advisor to IIPS and vice president of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain. He was formerly the president and chairman of Nomura Research Institute and president of the Defense College.     

Economics,imperialism and restorative revolution

Abstract

Disbelief, incomprehension and anger were common reactions to U.S. policy during the political crisis which ended in the break-up of Pakistan. President Nixon incurred wide and bi-partisan criticism in the American Congress and the press for supporting the Pakistani military government despite the latter's brutal suppression of the popular movement for autonomy in East Pakistan. No one seemed to discern any rationale—moral, political, or economic—for this policy. It is noteworthy that instead of dissipating the accusations of its favoritism to Islamabad, the White House helped reinforce the impression of its support for the junta, thus risking rising Congressional criticism and lampooning by liberal cartoonists, columnists, and editors.     

Natural resource rents and elite bargains in Africa: Exploring avenues for future research

This article explores the recent debate over the quality of Africa's growth episode of the past decade, specifically insofar as it pertains to the pitfalls of commodity-dependent growth and the hypothesised ‘resource curse’. In addition, the article focuses on why political and economic institutions are important, and why they are indicators for the likely development impacts of Africa's evident mineral and hydrocarbon wealth. Third, it suggests a useful theoretical framework for understanding these indicators, especially with regard to the differing constraints under which foreign investors operate and interact with host countries. Developing on the latter points, the article looks at the nature of Chinese foreign investment in Africa's extractive industries. Finally, the article suggests an agenda for future research that could better inform development policy for the purpose of promoting high-quality growth in Africa.     

The Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy: New Incentives with Slowing Growth

Abstract

Rising powers such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience two distinct stages of relative capability growth. China is currently in the first stage of growth, which is defined by increasingly rapid expansion and incentives for foreign policy accommodation. As the PRC shifts to the second stage, however, relative growth will slow, and leaders in Beijing will be presented with new incentives for foreign policy confrontation. This article formalizes a two-stage model of relative power growth and argues that China's shift to the second stage of growth will threaten regional and global stability. During this shift, the key to international security will be a coordinated, multilateral effort that responsibly balances China's growing power with a similarly expanded international role for China.     

Cape Verde and the risks of tourism specialisation: the tourism option for Africa’s small states

ABSTRACT

Tourism is a viable, but risky, option for many small island countries to integrate and compete in the world economy. This article examines tourism in the small island economy of Cape Verde. It assesses the risks to its long term development posed by the industry. The country has one of the fastest growing tourism industries in the world. However, this rapid growth is a dual-edge sword. Tourism-led growth results in real economic gains. However, the type and organisation of Cape Verde’s tourism industry magnifies the country’s already high structural vulnerability. Given its current structure and pace of growth, tourism increases macroeconomic risks and vulnerability. It is reproducing the same monoculture dependency that traditionally hampered development in African economies. The policy lessons are clear. Cape Verde must foster economic diversification while simultaneously engaging in strategies to mitigate the risks that accompany its biggest and fastest growing sector and export.     

Political Indigestion: Germany Confronts Genetically Modified Foods

Why has German policy toward agricultural biotechnology been notably unsupportive, compared to other countries with large biotechnology industries, despite its economic significance and the senior governing party's initial support across both the SPD–Green and Grand Coalition governments? I argue that German policy is the result of the interlocking dynamics in the economic and political arenas. In both realms, the GMO issue led to ‘business conflict’ by dividing economic sectors into pro-GMO and anti-GMO blocs. This enhanced the anti-GMO movement's ‘opportunity structures’ in both the economic and the political arena. It also affected the relative strength of contending political coalitions on both sides of the GMO issue, which in turn affected policy outcomes. Finally, I argue that the partisan composition of Germany's coalition governments also contributed to the outcome.     

Post-authoritarian Indonesia

Abstract

The article assesses the post-authoritarian situation in Indonesia in the light of experiences of Thailand and the Philippines, two societies in which the unraveling of authoritarianism has been followed by the rise of formal electoral politics. The authors suggest that the demise of authoritarian regimes in all three cases, born of the cold war, has more fundamentally seen the reconfiguration of politics in which dispersed, predatory, and frequently antidemocratic forces have appropriated the institutions and discourses of democracy. They also suggest that the Indonesian case has been less conducive to the emergence of effective pro-democracy, civil society-based movements in the wake of authoritarianism. This, they explain, is largely the consequence of the 1965 anticommunist massacres in Indonesia, which has no equivalence in the other two countries, and the resultant highly centralized authoritarianism that was more successful in disorganizing social and political opposition for three decades.     

The Political Implications of Russia's Resource-Based Economy

Abstract

A political economist explores the question of Russia's “resource curse.” He analyzes the links between resource wealth and politics, asking why resource-based economies are more likely than others to suffer from poor governance. In an investigation grounded in the political economy literature on the resource curse, several specific claims about the nature of politics and governance in resource-based economies are identified. Russia's recent experience is assessed in relation to those claims.     

Imagine All the People? Mobilising Islamic Populism for Right-Wing Politics in Indonesia

ABSTRACT

Right-wing politics in Indonesia is frequently associated with Islamic populist ideas. In part this is because Islamic organisations played a major role in the army-led destruction of the Indonesian Communist Party in the 1960s. Since then Islamic populism has evolved greatly and in post-authoritarian Indonesia it includes manifestations that see no fundamental contradiction between Islam and neo-liberal market economies as well as those that do. Significantly, like their counterparts in other countries, Indonesian Islamic populists maintain vigilance against the purveyors of class-based politics who may exert a divisive influence on the ummah. Thus, Indonesian Islamic populism shares with many of its counterparts a disdain for Leftist challenges to private property and capital accumulation besides political liberalism’s affinity to the secular national state. Yet strands of Islamic populism have relegated the project of establishing a state based on sharia to the background and embraced the democratic process. But this has not translated necessarily into social pluralist positions on a range of issues because the reinforcement of cultural idioms associated with Islam is required for the mobilisation of public support in contests over power and resources based on an ummah-based political identity.     

Addressing Corruption in Post-Soeharto Indonesia: The Role of the Corruption Eradication Commission

ABSTRACT

Anti-corruption became one of the top priorities in post-Soeharto Indonesia, with democratisation, market liberalisation and institutional anti-corruption frameworks pursued as means to enhance transparency and accountability in public governance. A core component of these efforts was the establishment of a powerful anti-corruption agency, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). This article assesses the effectiveness of the KPK, using evidence from two contrasting cases to identify factors that facilitated or impeded its ability to successfully investigate, prosecute and thus contain high-level corruption. The analysis highlights the threats to the KPK posed by resilient networks that were able to reconsolidate and resist anti-corruption efforts in post-Soeharto Indonesia. However, it also identifies countervailing social forces that emerged in the context of democratisation – in particular, an active civil society and a largely free press. While these supportive pressures from civil society could not fully counter the attacks on the KPK, they were able to prevent its marginalisation in the two major cases examined. Overall the KPK’s success in addressing high-level corruption is shown to be dependent on the interaction of political dynamics, interests and power relations, with no guarantee that anti-corruption forces will prevail in future cases.