Rising giants: Development in China and India

Can economic growth turn overpopulation from a liability to an asset? China and India tantalize investors as the “last frontiers” of emerging consumer markets; together, they hold 37 percent of the world's 5.7 billion people. Despite their many contrasts, China and India face similiar, immense development hurdles. Mired in economic stagnation and poverty, both countries undertook economic reforms that gained momentum in the 1980s. In this comparative study, IIPS Senior Research Fellow Eimon Ueda analyzes their ongoing economic liberalization efforts and prospects. Ueda comes to IIPS from the Ministry of Finance and has served at the Japanese Embassy in India.     

金融危机后的俄罗斯

普京治下的经济复苏,改善了俄罗斯的财政状况,提高了人民的生活水平,但没有使俄罗斯经济实现成功转型。全球金融危机暴露了俄罗斯经济状况的本质:普京八年的俄罗斯经济只是"恢复性增长",而非以投资和创新所驱动的可持续性增长,对能源仍然高度依赖。虽然危机之后俄经济有所恢复,但与能源价格上涨密切相关,其现代化进程任重道远。2012年之后的俄罗斯仍然将是一个缺少竞争力且严重依赖能源资源出口的国家。     

Regime Shift in Japan?Two Decades of Neoliberal Reforms

This paper uses insights drawn from a paired comparison of Switzerland and Japan to give an account of the changes brought about by neoliberal policy adaptation in Japan over the last two decades. In Switzerland, notwithstanding further liberalization of the traditionally liberal regime prompted by the economic hardships of the 1990s, the referendum system helped the Social Democrats and unions to defend their rights and maintain the welfare schemes belatedly established in the 1980s. By contrast, the Japanese ruling party not only delayed liberalization of the protectionist state, but also aggravated fiscal problems by implementing a series of expansionary macroeconomic policies in the 1990s. Thus, without pursuing coherently such neoliberal policies as fiscal consolidation, privatization, or market deregulation, the Japanese state now faces a serious dilemma between the immediate need for structural reforms and the social unease that would result. Focusing on the reform packages of the Nakasone (1982‐87), Hashimoto (1996‐98), and Koizumi (2001‐) administrations, the paper reviews the sequences of reform policies as an interplay among economic challenges, actors’ aspirations, and institutional constraints, and further develops arguments about the segmented structure, peculiar to the Japanese state, that retards political changes.     

Timing is everything: a quantitative study of presidentialist regime dynamics in Eurasia, 1992–2016

Why do some countries with presidentialist constitutions feature more political closure than others at a given time? A quantitative study of post-Soviet countries since independence finds that much of the observed variation in political closure reflects timing, or the particular point at which a country happens to be within a regime cycle, rather than structural or other factors usually cited to explain regime change. Specifically, how much time a president has had to coordinate rivalrous networks around his or her authority is at least as strong a predictor of the level of regime closure as are economic development, economic growth, resource rents, proximity to Europe, and key cultural factors, even when controlling for the level of closure in the preceding year. This pattern is not found among countries with divided-executive constitutions, indicating it is related to the constitution rather than a general phenomenon.     

The immediate impact of the global financial crisis and neo-liberal austerity policies on in-work poverty dynamics in Lithuania

ABSTRACT

The article analyzes the extent and features of in-work poverty in Lithuania in the aftermath of the global economic crisis of 2007–2008. It argues that the significant expansion of the phenomenon during this time period was fostered by neoliberal policies that have been shaping the welfare system in the country for more than two decades. Furthermore, it draws attention to employment conditions and seeks to understand the experiences of those who live in in-work poverty. This article reveals that, during the period investigated, in-work poverty in Lithuania was associated with being a woman, having children, belonging to single-parent household, and being employed in a precarious working environment.     

A critique of the ‘Bureaucratic authoritarian state’ thesis: The case of the Philippines

The article reviews characteristic patterns of domestic resource mobilization, investments and foreign capital inflows in developing Asia and identifies the emerging issues in resource mobilization. It finds that high levels of investments and savings have been an important reason that developing Asia has had better growth performance than other regions of the world. The pattern of resource mobilization has been different across countries depending upon their development stage. Low-income countries tend to rely on concessional official sources as their debt-servicing capacity is limited and their domestic resource mobilization capacity is weak, while higher income countries rely on domestic resource mobilization as well as competitive financing from international capital markets and foreign direct investment.

Development challenges in Asia continue to be high in the 1990s and will require substantial resources. The challenges will in principle have to be met by domestic resources, indicating the need for strengthening the resource mobilization effort. However, the role of external resources will remain important because of limited domestic resource mobilization in developing Asia. Potential shortage in the global capital market implies that developing countries will have to improve their investment environment to induce more foreign private capital, including foreign direct investment. The possible shortage also indicates the need to strengthen the role of multilateral financial institutions.     

Democracy and development: With Special attention to Korea

Academic discussions on the relationship between regime type and economic growth of developing countries have been drawn to three linkages, the contribution of a certain type of political authoritarianism to rapid industrial transformation, the trend towards democracy after a long period of sustained economic development, and possible negative economic consequences of democratization itself. There are theoretical reasons to support the first two assertions, but the third proposition is less tenable. The case of Korea shows that democratic changes have resulted in higher consumption, have induced inflationary policy, and have led to wage increases in excess of productivity gains. However, these might well be transitional rather than steady-state phenomena. Political learning can prevent young democracies from becoming captives to distributional coalitions.     

The neoliberal state and the penalization of misery

The strategy adopted by the neoliberal state to maintain social order and safeguard private property in a context of economic deregulation and social precariousness has destroyed the welfare state and aggravated poverty, depriving the masses of any form of social protection while subjecting them to repression. The reinforcement of the repressive state apparatus is associated with the social instability provoked by the lack of social policies, the degradation of living conditions for the great majority of the population, and the amplification of income and property inequalities both in the so-called capitalist periphery and in the richest industrialized countries. The penalization of misery is revealed as a new expression of class domination.     

亚太经合组织中区域利益和成员利益的冲突与协调——APEC成立十周年回顾与展望

亚太经合组织（ＡＰＥＣ） 是区域利益的代表。作为成员利益的集中体现,ＡＰＥＣ 的区域利益主要由贸易投资自由化和经济技术合作两大部分组成。由于发达成员和发展中成员在以上两个方面有不同的利益追求,ＡＰＥＣ 中区域利益和成员利益一直存在着冲突。在过去的十年中,贸易投资自由化和经济技术合作的不平衡发展使这种冲突逐渐表面化。展望未来,ＡＰＥＣ 的持续发展有赖于成员经济体享有充分灵活性的基础上,通过协商一致,处理好发达成员和发展中成员的利益分歧     

Economic Growth,Regime Insecurity,and Military Strategy: Explaining the Rise of Noncombat Operations in China

Abstract

Although China's armed forces have yet to complete its ambitious modernization program, its military strategy has begun to emphasize the ability to conduct noncombat operations such as disaster relief and peacekeeping in addition to traditional war fighting. This new component of China's military strategy is best explained by an unexpected relationship between economic growth and regime security. Although growth is key to the legitimacy of leaders in developing countries, it also creates new sources of domestic unrest and increases the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks, both of which, if unchecked, can harm future growth. As a result, developing countries such as China may use their armed forces to maintain political stability and provide services that the state lacks, such as emergency disaster relief. These conclusions are based on original data from China.     

Trade and investment in Southeast Asian development

Expansion of foreign trade and investment has been a vital factor underlaying the high economic growth of the Southeast Asian economies over the last ten years. As East and Southeast Asian economies continue to deregulate and prosper, trade and investment flows are becoming increasingly interconnected within the region. The character of this regional economic integration, however, has shifted recently. The role of the Japanese has declined while that of China and the overseas Chinese has boomed. Whereas China has absorbed huge amounts of foreign investment, investment to the Southeast Asian economies appears to be weakening significantly. This weakening of investment is occurring just as many Southeast Asian countries struggle to uppgrade the technical levels of their production of goods and services to accommodate the rising wages and income levels that are fundamental to sustained and broad-based increases in standards of living throughout the region.     

Global Economic Changes and the Commodification of Human Capital: Implications of Filipino Nurse Migration

East Asia’s economic prowess strongly impacted the research agenda of scholars studying the region. Whereas analysts had once focused on military governments, relations of dependency, clientelism, and low modes of peasant movements, they now investigate industrialisation. In East Asia, the Philippines is the largest contributor of migrant labourers to the global workforce. Following recent discussions by Robert Putnam on the social aspect of investment, perhaps human capital might then be considered part of the industrialisation process? Channelling human resources towards expediting industrialisation can be a catalyst for development. This article seeks to combine a variety of theoretical literatures with insights gained from conducting fieldwork and available empirical data, presenting its main findings in two major parts. The first focuses on the relationship between human capital, migration and economic growth, and suggests that social capital, particularly human resources, can help economic growth in developing countries if channelled appropriately. The second is a case study of the Philippines as the second largest exporter of human labour in the world, with human capital as its largest export commodity. A key feature of the research identifies the significance of commodifying human capital. The author argues that maximizing human resources, as a potential and un-channelled catalyst for improved economic growth is a good investment in social capital. By transforming human resources into a trade commodity, this economic transaction between labour-sending (parent) and labour-receiving (host) countries becomes a rational process that takes on emotional qualities, and must be considered where the trade of human labour is concerned.     

EXTRACTING LABOR FROM ITS OWNER

The Asian economic crisis in 1997 helped bring down Suharto's authoritarian regime in 1998. At the same time it paved the way for more measures of economic liberalization. Some of these measures have taken the form of labor market liberalization, which aims to increase the labor market's ability to adjust to changing economic conditions by clearing what are seen as burdensome regulations, or “rigidities” as they are known in economic parlance. An important instrument in this effort is the private employment agency, which the Manpower Act no. 13/2003 introduced in 2003. This article argues that the introduction of these agencies has created opportunities for various actors in society to take advantage of the less-protected workers in the uncertain waters of the post-Suharto labor regime. In the process, the nature of industrial relations has also been changed in a way that is more predatory than liberal. Ultimately the agencies help erode the hopes for a better life for workers and undermine the revival of labor political rights in Indonesia.     

博弈类型与国际机制--APEC方式的博弈论分析

博弈论对具体的国际合作机制的形成具有很强的解释力.具体利益博弈的类型不同,它所要求的国际合作机制也不同.亚太经合组织内发达经济体与发展中经济体的利益博弈是一种特殊的非合作型博弈,这决定了A距C合作方式的特殊性.     

Challenges and Prospects for Economic Development in Africa

Africa's history of economic development and growth has been characterised by failed experiments, poor planning and impractical orthodoxies. This left the continent at the mercy of states and ruling elites who were unable to meet the challenges of both rising expectations from their citizens and the imperatives of sound policy design and implementation. Difficult existential conditions, including rising levels of poverty and bad governance, have been compounded by the vagaries of the international environment and Africa's peripheral position in its political economy and division of labour. Auspicious growth indicators over the last decade, fuelled mainly by global commodity demand and improved macro-economic management, have recently been undermined by the global financial crisis. The crisis has again exposed the continent to the spectre of depressed growth, with serious implications for state capacity and social welfare. This article examines the main ideological fault-lines, development challenges, and external factors that have characterised Africa's economic development and concludes that the future of the continent will remain one of this century's great challenges.     

Indonesian local party politics

Since the fall of Soeharto in 1998, economic reforms have been linked to internationally supported programs to introduce market-facilitating “good governance” practices, which include the promotion of democratic elections and administrative and fiscal decentralization. International development organizations have thus put forward decentralization as necessary, essentially, to save Indonesia from becoming an irredeemably “failed state” — an issue that has now grown in importance because of the current nature of Western security concerns in Southeast Asia. But this article suggests that the way decentralization has actually taken place can only be understood in relation to the entrenchment of a democratic political regime run by the logic of money politics and violence, and primarily dominated by reconstituted old New Order elites. Taking local party politics in North Sumatra and East Java as case studies, the article shows that local constellations of power, with an interest in the perpetuation of predatory politics, still offer significant sites of resistance to the global neoliberal economic and political agenda.     

Hard Bargains: The Impact of Multinational Corporations on Economic Reform in Latin America

This article promotes the idea that multinational corporations have independent agency in the process of economic reform in Latin American host countries. Through a number of pooled cross-sectional time series analyses, it shows that accumulated foreign direct investment can affect policy reform in ways unanticipated by earlier theories predicated on the obsolescence of firms' influence after initial investment. The influence of firms varies across different reform areas, and competitive pressures lead firms to press alternately for liberal and illiberal reform measures. The study also considers sectoral issues, and argues that a preponderance of natural resource–oriented FDI can alter the impact of multinational investment on policy reform. Indexes of economic reform are measured against stocks of FDI and a number of political and economic control variables. Evidence shows that the dramatic increase in FDI in the region in recent years has bolstered firms' bargaining power and concomitant policy leverage.     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

Participation of African member states in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) multilateral trading system

Abstract

The core purpose and goals of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are to enhance growth by allowing each country to trade freely according to its comparative advantage. The other stated main objectives of the WTO are: raising standards of living; providing full employment; reduction of tariffs and non‐tariff barriers; and the elimination of discriminatory treatment. According to the current orthodox economic view, trade openness is essential for growth: countries that liberalise their imports and orientate production towards exports are assumed to have faster growth than those that do not, and the faster the rate of opening, the greater will the prospect be for development. The emphasis on trade liberalisation and export orientation in the past ten years following the adoption of the Uruguay Round has led to phenomenal growth in world merchandise trade, which has grown consistently faster than output. The orthodox view approach is today expanded and modified with the view that liberalisation measures are not sufficient by themselves and should be accompanied by other factors such as sound macroeconomic policies, good governance and a modern infrastructure. Africa's dependence on primary commodities as a source of export earnings has meant that it is vulnerable to weather conditions, market vagaries, and price volatility, arising mainly from supply shock and the secular decline in real commodity prices. The attendant terms of trade losses have exacted heavy costs in terms of incomes, indebtedness, investment, poverty and development. Therefore, the basic approach that liberalisation has a direct link to economic growth and should be undertaken as fast as possible is being questioned and has been challenged by empirical studies in recent years. The relevant studies have shown that there is a lack of relationship between the degree of trade liberalisation and the rate of growth. The emerging paradigm accepts that there are possible costs, as well as potential benefits of trade liberalisation to a particular developing country, depending on the conditions in that country, and the type of liberalisation undertaken. The other impediments and weaknesses identified as affecting effective, efficient and economical participation of African members in the WTO include rapid liberalisation as potential source of fiscal instability; general absence of peace, security and democracy; globalisation and lack of competitive ability; supply‐side constraints; high export concentration ratio; problems of implementation; exclusion and/or marginalisation from knowledge‐based economy; and lack of capacity. The Doha Development Round was initiated to attend to, and address, these problems, and it is still too early to predict the outcome. African countries need to look for African solutions to their socio‐economic and political problems, adopting transdisciplinary approaches in the context of the African Renaissance paradigm.     

Multiple Trajectories and “Good Governance” in Asia: An Introduction

Conventional wisdom in the international aid community has been that governance systems and practices in developing countries require reform in order for aid catering to economic development or poverty alleviation to be successful. Despite criticisms, the good governance agenda has remained unscathed in international development policy until the recent economic crisis in the advanced economies. This feature section of this issue provides in-depth analysis of the nuances at the critical linkage between institutional reforms and development, based on empirical case studies of the logic of governance reforms in the Asian context. This introductory essay surveys the intellectual background of discussion over the concepts of governance, good governance and development, and the linkage between governance reforms as process and development as outcome. It highlights the significance of discussing Asian reform experiences for the ongoing reflection over the global institutional agenda. The message is not that we do not need governance reforms, or that international learning is impossible or counterproductive. Reform efforts in developing and advanced economies will benefit, however, from a better understanding of the linkage between reforms and the diverse historical conditions they are embedded in.