ASEAN AND CHINA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES

The South China Sea disputes involve both island and maritime claims among sovereign states and the issue has long been a point of debate in international politics. It involves not only the countries in dispute but also other major world powers, including the United States. Its important strategic location and the abundant resources make the South China Sea a target of contention among the claimant countries. The arbitral ruling in July 2016 gives a new momentum to the dispute. The article examines the strategic relations of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) by analyzing the positions and steps taken by ASEAN and China, as well as ASEAN-China joint initiatives. It also discusses the challenges and viable solutions to the dispute.     

美国南海政策的军事化及其影响

当前,国际社会正处于"百年未有之大变局"中,中美两国竞争加剧。在这一背景下,美国南海政策的军事化倾向尤为突出。通过案例分析、运用比较分析的方法对美国南海政策军事化及其影响进行探究,可以看出美国南海政策军事化的主要目的是遏制中国的崛起。为达到这一目的,美国提升了"航行自由行动"的频率和烈度,增加了在南海内沿和外围的军事战略存在,还加强了与盟国的同盟关系。不过,美国国内有一部分人认为南海政策军事化目前并未达到其希望的效力,反而使美国在战争与和平之间愈加难以保持平衡。美国在南海地区的影响力受到挑战的同时,中美关系也因此有所倒退,南海局势变得更加复杂。鉴于此,中国一方面要保持克制态度,增强危机意识,做好预案,通过高质量外交对话等方式增进与美国的政治互信,另一方面也要加快推进与东盟国家《南海各方行为准则》的谈判与磋商,与东盟国家一道维护好南海地区的和平与稳定。     

东盟国家处理海域争端的方式及其对解决南海主权争端的启示

东盟国家在解决南海以外的海域争端时,基本上采用以下三种方式:对争议海域进行共同开发;通过提交国际法院裁决;武力对抗加政治谈判。从实践来看,不同方式取得了不同的效果。近年来,东盟部分成员国采用不同方式不断侵占中国的南海海域,使南海问题呈现越来越复杂的态势。中国在南海主权争端中,面临来自东盟国家的巨大挑战,如何解决南海海域争端已成为中国与部分东盟国家面临的最棘手问题。东盟国家解决海域争端的方式,对于解决南海主权争端提供了一定的启示。     

The Creation and Implementation of the ASEAN Charter

Abstract

This review article analyzes and builds on arguments presented in two prominent books, The Making of the ASEAN Charter, by Koh, Manalo, and Woon, and ASEAN: Life after the Charter by Tiwari, on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Charter. The books envision future international cooperation and even international disputes as legal issues. I claim that by doing so, these books participate in the articulation of a reality where international politics and dispute resolution in Southeast Asia are something that belongs to the legal rather than military realm. As such, both books document and represent an effort to desecuritize (move the issue area away from the realm of security) disputes within ASEAN – an undertaking that the Copenhagen School of Security Studies claims cannot be done by means of declarations and speech only.     

Changing Global Landscape and Enhanced US Engagement with Asia—Challenges and Emerging Trends

United States President Barack Obama's announcement of significant shifts in US polices towards the Middle East and East Asia in 2009 has affected the global strategic landscape. President Obama's announcement of enhanced US engagement with Asia has posed certain challenges to the prevailing regional architecture of ASEAN centric institutions and ASEAN centrality which has fostered peace and stability, and prosperity in the region. The rise of China and its growing political and economic influence in the region and its military modernisation have aroused US concern that a rising China could in the future challenge its primacy in the Asia region. President Obama's announcement of a web of military alliances of treaty allies and strategic partners with the stationing of US marines in Darwin in November 2011 was perceived by China as an attempt by the US to contain China or constrain its rise. ASEAN is uneasy about any emergence of big power rivalry in the region.     

美国“重返亚洲”后的马美、马中关系探析

2009年美国"重返亚洲"后,马美两国政治关系有所加强;中马两国政治关系非常密切,合作不断扩大,相互投资和互认学位等问题得到解决,金融合作走在东盟国家前列。马美关系发展对中马关系发展暂时影响不大,中马关系发展乐观,但面对的问题也不少,应给予关注并及早制定对策。     

New Security Dimensions in the Asia–Pacific

The rise of China provides a major challenge to the United States, the undisputed hegemon in the Asia-Pacific region since the second world war. This development provides regional states with an opportunity to shape the regional security architecture by adopting an inclusive approach to China. The role of the Association of Southeast Asian States (ASEAN) tends to be under-estimated by Western scholars who often see the European model as the only approach to regional integration. This paper discusses the significant achievements of ASEAN in serving as a catalyst for the establishment of regional institutions. Such institutions could serve as instruments for the management of China's relations with Japan and India. It is contended that the emergence of Asian powers, especially China, will result in a challenge to the Washington Consensus of Western norms and values focusing on individual rights which have governed international institutions. The rise of China is likely to see the application of a Beijing Consensus emphasising the balance between individual rights and social obligations, which would resonate positively in the region. In the twenty-first century, global institutions will need to reflect the norms, values and practices of global society and not just Atlantic perspectives.     

新加坡加强发展对华经济的动因分析

近年来,由于世界经济形势发生了新变化,美、日、欧等主要发达国家的经济增速放缓,使得新加坡的经济 发展面临着严峻的挑战。而中国经济在全球经济普遍不景气的情况下,继续保持良好的增长势头。为了赶搭中国经济发展 的顺风车,新加坡政府推出“中国战略”,希望通过进一步加强同中国的经贸关系,来重振国内经济。     

20世纪末以来中、美与东盟的三边互动关系——以权力转移为视角

中国的崛起对美国和东盟均产生重大影响,导致中、美和东盟在经贸、政治和认知方面形成了互动关系。由于经济领域的区域经济一体化、贸易转移效应和政治领域东亚一体化的排斥效应等因素,中美在东亚的权力关系发生了转移,东亚秩序经历了结构性调整。三方在经贸、政治和认知的互动相互影响并呈正相关关系,使得东亚的权力转移在和平中实现。互动中仍存在一些问题需要三方调适和合作加以解决。     

Prospects for cooperative security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region

The concept of multilateral dialogue on Asia-Pacific security is attracting increasing support. This results from the improvement of relations among most of the major powers, the growing awareness of the problems that can best be addressed through cooperation, and the development of more realistic proposals for multilateral dialogue. The best approach to cooperative security is to utilize a combination of channels, including the ASEAN Regional Forum for discussion of region-wide and Southeast Asian issues, a parallel forum for dialogue on Northeast Asia, consideration of some security problems in APEC, and a recognized unofficial dialogue on regional strategic questions. In Spring 1994, he was a visiting professor of East Asian studies at The George Washington University and as of January 1995 he will be the new dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at GWU. He is the author ofA Fragile Relationship: The United States and China Since 1972 (Brookings, 1992).     

东盟国家间领土争端的解决:做法、争论与启示

在遇到领土争端问题时,东盟成员国没有诉诸于《东南亚友好合作条约》规定的高级委员会,而是诉诸于国际法院.虽然这一举措并没有违背《东南亚友好合作条约》的规定,但却引起了学者们关于东盟机制作用的争论.国际法院的判决就东盟国家间领土的主权归属做出了明确的判决,但也激起了失利一方强烈的民族情绪.东盟国家间解决领土争端的做法及其结果启示我们:解决复杂国际问题的最好办法还是在于政治解决.而这正是东盟所一直倡导的原则和做法.     

Showtime for Southeast Asia: An economic and political crossroads

In the ASEAN region, booming exports and imports, and rapidly rising per capita incomes, have brought new challenges to trade policy. ASEAN is promoting its own “free trade area”; the United States backs the much wider and all-inclusive APEC format; and Malaysia urges a “caucus” restricted ethnically and racially to East Asians. The result is a genuine trade debate, along lines familiar in the already-industrialized nations. If ASEAN follows genuine openness there are considerable opportunities, but if it takes the timeworn paths of protectionism, restrictions on investment, and excessive sensitivity to fears of “foreign manipulation,” the future is liable to be less bright.     

China and Competing Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: TPP,RCEP, and the New Silk Road

Abstract

A big question looming large over policy and theory in Asian security is how China will use its newfound wealth and power in the region and with what consequences. The United States has concluded the negotiation of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); ASEAN has promoted the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Both frameworks seek to shape China’s regional behavior and manage rising China. In late 2013, China inaugurated the new Silk Road initiative, which has rapidly gained momentum in the country and among China’s neighbors. American public and policy makers, however, are largely unaware or baffled by the new Silk Road. The article, based on field surveys and extensive documentary analysis, provides the first roadmap on how China views TPP, RCEP, and the new Silk Road. It offers important exploration of how China acts and reacts to regional contestation and what are implications for the region.     

金融危机与东南亚地区国际关系的新变化

金融危机使东南亚各国面对一系列严峻挑战 ,也使该地区的国际关系发生重大而深远的变化。东盟主导东南亚地区事务的能力受到了削弱。中美日等大国的影响力增强了。尤其是美国 ,利用这次金融危机 ,得到了许多它平时得不到的东西。金融危机之后 ,东南亚地区形成了由美、日、中和东盟四足鼎立的政治经济格局。     

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP):研究前沿与架构

"跨太平洋伙伴关系协议"(TPP)在美国的积极推动下发展迅速,似乎将成为亚太地区新的竞争性区域合作机制。TPP以成员国全面零关税、知识产权保护、劳工和环保等议题为特点,提出建立高质量和高标准的自由贸易区,已吸引了包括美国在内的亚太九国参加协议谈判。在TPP建立过程中,美国企图重获亚太经济主导权的意图明显;日本虽积极参与,但自身困难重重;东盟在巩固现有基础上,并不排斥新机制出现。当前,美国主导TPP势头正盛,但其发展态势并不明朗,TPP谈判仍将面临美国国内政治因素和技术问题的双重障碍以及日本能否顺利加入等问题;当前的国际政治与经济局势,使中国面临新的挑战与机遇,宜通过调整经济结构,扩大内需,完善和巩固现有区域合作战略以积极应对TPP的发展。未来,中国与美日韩以及东盟等双边和多边经贸关系受TPP的实质影响将成为新一轮研究重点。     

寻求韩国预防大国在东北亚冲突中的作用

随着中国在地区事务中的作用与责任与日俱增,中国在解决地区安全、贸易及环境问题等方面的合作日益至关重要。美国总统奥巴马曾说,美中关系是美国在国际事务中最重要的关系。但东北亚地区有许多问题会经常引发中美两国产生争议和冲突。本文将论证朝鲜半岛问题本身对这种中美合作关系的负面影响。天安舰事件证明了中美两国合作关系的脆弱性;包括核问题在内旷日持久的＂朝鲜问题＂影响中美关系。美国和中国在如何看待与解决朝鲜问题方面存在分歧。特别是在过去两年内,两个大国之间的分歧已经扩大。因此,本文最后将论述韩国对改善美中关系的作用。为避免冷战格局重现,韩国在朝鲜半岛及东北亚地区应该能够发挥更大的作用。     

论当前中国和平维护南海权益的国际环境

2010年以来,在美国高调介入南海地区事务以及越南推动南海问题多边化与外部化政策的影响下,东盟对南海问题的影响日趋增强,主要南海权益争端国家对中国的态度趋向强硬。南海问题的发展趋势表明,南海争端矛盾的尖锐化、问题解决机制的多边化、区域外强国介入的常态化已经成为中国和平维护南海权益不得不面对的国际环境。而美国与东盟提出的多边谈判和尽早协商通过《南海地区行为准则》的建议短期内无益于问题的解决。从容易解决的争端下手,通过双边谈判首先解决某些具体争端,逐渐消解南海问题的复杂性是中国应对当前南海问题复杂国际因素、和平维护南海权益的必要之举。     

浅析美国力压人民币升值的性质与政治目标--兼论中国的对策

目前,国际社会对人民币汇率问题的关注已进入一个新的阶段,中美之间围绕人民币升值问题所进行的争论和较量已趋于白热化.本文认为,美国力压人民币升值行为在本质上是一个重大的政治问题,美国有明显的政治战略和利益追求.面对人民币升值的压力,中国应理智和妥善处理好各种关系,以求得国家利益的最大化.     

依靠美国：日本解决领土纠纷问题之路——原贵美惠对东北亚领土纠纷问题的主要观点

自称日本＂海外＂学者原贵美惠近几年发表了许多有关东亚领土纠纷问题研究成果,引起学界关注。作者提出东亚地区领土纠纷问题出现,都与美国战后主导《旧金山对日媾和条约》有关,是美国设置于有关国家之间的＂楔子＂,便于美国实施未来亚太战略。关于东亚领土纠纷问题如何解决,作者提出采用奥兰群岛模式,在多国框架内解决等。笔者认为,原贵美惠的研究成果确实比较新异,但并未脱离日本学者局限,依靠美国解决日本与周边国家间领土纠纷,是日本朝野上下的共同选择。     

ASEAN's Indispensable Role in Regional Construction

The main objective of this paper is to answer the question why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should play a central role in constructing new security architecture in East Asia. The main argument of the paper is that, unlike other regions, a number of factors account for the complicated conditions observed in the East Asian region that provide a chance for ASEAN to be a central player in this process, promising because small and middle powers rarely can abuse power.

In order to achieve this objective, the paper is divided into three parts. The first part will analyze the major obstacles to the building of a constructive new China-Japan relationship akin to the post-World War II (WWII) ties between France and Germany. The second part analyzes the pivot to Asia by the United States to consolidate its role as regional facilitator. The third part shows why ASEAN can take the lead as a driving force or catalyst in fostering regional cooperation, because as mentioned above neither China nor Japan can do it at this stage. The paper concludes that despite the fact that ASEAN still faces many weaknesses and limitations, it continues to serve as a central player in an emerging architecture where, so far, no new alternative has appeared.