加快促进粮食安全生产

<正>近年来,各地严格落实强农惠农补贴政策,不断夯实农业基础,粮食生产呈现良好的发展势头。但是,在粮食生产迅速发展的同时,也出现了新的问题。一、粮食安全生产面临的问题(一)粮食生产成本上涨较快。当前农业生产资料价格偏高,化肥、种子、农药、农膜、农用柴油价格快速上涨,加大了种植成本。另外,涉农补贴标准偏低,如山西晋北农民以玉米种植为主,而玉米粮种补贴仅10元,粮食直补5元,农资综合补贴55元,     

农业生产形势不容乐观

我国农业生产连续几年取得丰收,从目前来看,1993年农业发展的基础是好的。但是,也存在着一些不利因素:农产品价格放开后,流通渠道不畅,农副产品卖难、打白条的现象严重,农民负担过重,影响农民生产积极性,以及开发区的建设大量挤占良田和耕地,是1993年粮食播种面积大幅度调减的原因,     

当前通胀压力根源不是食品而是货币

一、当前食品价格上涨不是通胀压力的根本原因当前粮价上涨主要由于以下因素:首先是粮食生产成本的上涨。今年,大多数省市都提高了最低工资标准,这意味着人工工资的增加,而农业是劳动密集型产业,农业中劳动工资成本上升也非常明显。另外,今年以来,农业生产资料价格出现普涨局面,自然会在农产品价格中有所体现。其次,今年前7个月,整个农业处在极端不利的气候条件下,尽管其对主要农作物产量的影响比较有限,但会令人产生秋后农产品价格上涨的预期,从而吸引更多的资金进入农产品收购、储存、营销等领域,使得农产品价格上升。第三,农产品价格上升     

农业部关于推进农业供给侧结构性改革的实施意见

<正>一、稳定粮食生产,巩固提升粮食产能1.加快划定粮食生产功能区和重要农产品生产保护区。按照"布局合理、标识清晰、生产稳定、能划尽划"的原则,结合永久基本农田划定,以主体功能区规划和优势农产品布局规划为依托,选择农田基础设施较好、相对集中连片的田块,科学合理划定稻谷、小麦、玉米粮食生产功能区和大豆、棉花、油菜籽、糖料蔗、天然橡胶等重要农产品生产保护区。推动将"两区"内地块全部建档立册、上图上     

农业供给侧结构性改革的科学内涵和现实意义

<正>2016年中央经济工作会议提出,深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革。农业供给端改革正在成为我国农业经济改革的重要内容。近30多年来,改革开放带来我国农业的巨大变化,粮食、蔬菜、水果、畜禽、水产品等农副产品供应充足,为国内市场提供了丰富的物质基础。但是,农业生产发展仍然不适应我国经济发展的新要求,不能适应大众消费者的消费变化,这主要反映在三个方面:一是粮食生产存在阶段性、结构性过剩。二是农产品质量安全性不     

农业的多功能和现代都市农业

农业的多功能性，一般是指农业部门除了生产粮食等农产品满足人和牲畜所需要的食物和纤维这一基本功能以外，还为实现其它目标做出努力，体现农业的多种社会功能。多功能性体现了农业与其他产业的不同，即农业是一个特殊的、需要保护和发展的产业，它除了确保粮食和其它农产品的供给之外，     

论中国农业供给侧结构性改革的着力点——以区域地标品牌为战略调整农业结构

<正>推进农业供给侧改革的关键,就是要实现农业发展的战略转型,由农产品规模化生产向农产品区域地标品牌化经营转变,以扶持区域地标的农产品品牌作为农业结构调整的主攻方向。一、推进区域地标品牌战略是市场经济的客观要求中国农业发展到今天,农产品总量充足,温饱型农产品已经实现供需平衡甚至产能过剩,中高端农产品消费的市场空间很大但供给不足,如何确保农产品供给数量、品种和质量契合消费者需要,是农业供给侧结构性改革的     

当前我国农业发展中存在的主要问题

当前我国农业发展中存在的主要问题有农业生产力水平低;农业资源萎缩;农地质量低;农业基础设施薄弱;土地产权主体模糊;粮食生产能力下降;农业人力资源开发落后;农业产业化水平低;农民增收空间有限;农业生产结构性矛盾突出。     

大宗农产品供求关系及价格形成机制的研究

随着全球经济在金融危机后的慢慢复苏,农产品国际贸易市场也逐渐回到了比较平稳的水平,但是有一部分农产品的价格还是出现了较大的波动。影响农产品价格变动的主要因素有供求关系、美元汇率、主要农产品国际组织、农业政策、天气等。对策建议是改善农产品的供求关系;制定更合理的国际农产品定价机制。     

关于农产品生产中矛盾的分析和对策的思考——对农村第二步改革实质的重新认识

我国农产品价格放开后,农村生产的总形势是比较好的。但是其中也存在不少问题。突出的表现是粮食和其他一些农产品市场松紧多变,价格大起大落,严重地影响农民生产积极性正常发挥和经济收入稳定提高。一种产品的价格看好时,农民一涌而上,竞相种、养。种、养的人多了,价格又大跌,甚至根本卖不出去。以粮食来说,1984年大丰收,不少地区便出现了“购不起、销不动、存不下、调不出”的困扰局面,但一年之后,在全国却很快发生了定购落实不下去,硬行、强制农民完成“合同”任务的现象。眼下看吃亏的是农民,而长此下去,势必重新阻碍整个国民经济持续稳定发展。     

Is long-term food insecurity inevitable in Asia?

Abstract

This article questions two widely accepted claims on long-term food insecurity in Asia, the world's (heterogeneous) region with the largest number of undernourished individuals. The first claim is that food production may not grow as fast as the pace of population growth in Asia, which will reach 5 billion by 2050. The second claim is that an unstoppable emergence of a middle class in Asia will dramatically change the composition of food demand. On the first claim, the region's contribution to high and volatile international food prices is well known, but Asia's potentially positive contributions toward future price uncertainty and productivity growth are much less cited. On the second claim, the changing composition of future food demand in the region will depend on the extent that poverty reduction effectively leads to middle class expansion, which it is not an automatic process, and its extent still remains to be seen. Past evidence teaches us that poverty reduction on its own will not do the job of eradicating hunger, nor will only increasing food production. The jury is still out, but doomsday predictions are not necessarily justified.     

Democracy and socialism

This paper shows that Marx's theory of agricultural rent is not an adjunct to his theory of capital at the level of distribution but is inseparably developed from it. The forms of differential and absolute rent are shown to correspond to the formation of market value and price of production in the agricultural sector respectively, these in turn depending upon the barriers posed by landed property to intensive and extensive cultivation. In appendices, Marx' critique of Ricardo's theory of rent, differential rent on the worst land, a critique of other interpretations of Marx, and the ‘historical transformation problem’ are each considered briefly.     

Climate variability and its impacts on agriculture production and future prediction using autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA)

This study assesses the impacts of climate variation on land productivity for major Indian food and non‐food grain crops. We collected data for 50 years from (1967–2016) with 15 crops across India. To estimate the variation of agriculture production for each crop by different variables, for instance, rainfall and temperature estimation and future prediction for 20 years, that is, until 2036. Our results specify that land productivity drops with a rise in annual mean temperature in most of the crops. The adverse impact of climate variation on agricultural production recommends food security risk to minor and marginal agricultural families, badly affected by climatic variations. Results show that a rise in temperature would reduce agricultural productivity and assessed sensitivity of Indian agriculture to climate change. We did forecasting using the autoregressive integrated moving average model for 20 years. It shows that as temperature and rainfall upturns in the future, production of some crops, such as gram, sesamum (til), jowar, groundnut, sugarcane, and bajra, will also increase. Some crops are climate sensitive, such as arhar, wheat, rice, cotton, and tea. As temperature increases, the production of these crops slightly increase or decrease.     

按要素分配假设中要素贡献、所有权的内涵--与白暴力教授对要素价值论评说的商榷

应辩证地看萨伊生产要素命题,明确劳动生产率决定因素的具体作用.以"贡献"决定剩余分配所依据的是产权.如果有一个恰当的条件限定,按要素分配和按劳分配两种学说并不冲突.     

Public Opinion and the Depth of Labour's Crisis

Labour's current problems are the culmination of long‐term trends flowing from the rising cost of tax‐funded services and welfare and voters’ mounting resistance to higher taxes to pay for them. As a result of this, there is now a big gulf between the attitudes of Labour party members, and in particular the supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, and Labour voters—and an even wider gulf with the extra voters Labour needs to win a future election. This gulf is also wide in relation to a range of other issues, including immigration, education and economic ideology. For Labour to return to government, it needs not just to narrow the gulf in policy, but to persuade voters of its ‘valence’ virtues of trust and competence—qualities in relation to which Labour currently lags the Conservatives by large margins.     

Technology transfer,public policy,and the cooperative extension service-OMB imbroglio

The Cooperative Extension Service, although widely cited as an exemplary technology transfer system for its documented contributions to increases in agricultural productivity, is confronting a number of challenges. Recent presidential budgets propose a narrowing of federal responsibilities for Extension to programs related to the transfer of agricultural technology. At the same time, the relevance of its traditional organizational structure to the technical needs of contemporary agriculture has been questioned. Extension's ability simultaneously to correct what it perceives to be a narrow view of its mission as well as to improve its performance as a technology transfer system is constrained by several things. One of these is its need to provide the diverse set of services demanded by the broad constituency that comprises its political base of support. Another is the gradual change in its own internal norms towards an educational information dissemination orientation away from an emphasis on adaptive research and technical problem-solving.     

Transforming top‐down agricultural extension to a participatory system: a study of costs and prospective benefits in Egypt

This article challenges some previous assessments of agricultural extension relying on simple measures of costs per farmer trained. Taking the case of Egypt, five pilot projects that aim to transform the existing agricultural extension system to a participatory system are analysed as regards their cost‐effectiveness and prospective cost–benefits. It is shown that the intensity and likely impact of participatory approaches among the different projects vary. Hence, it is insufficient to judge extension programmes by their cost‐effectiveness alone. In the case of cotton, for example, the costs per farmer trained are considerably lower than in horticultural crops but there are large differences in prospective benefits which would make investment in participatory extension in the latter more promising. The article calls for a more careful analysis of the costs of extension programmes in agricultural development and identifies four major cost categories, namely base costs, start‐up costs, recurrent and farmers' costs. The article also submits that in the context of the debate on privatization of agricultural extension there is a role to be played for the public sector in agriculture. The success of participatory approaches to extension will depend on the quality of services provided in connection with farmer training programmes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate Change and its impacts on Indian agriculture: An Econometric analysis

This study assessed the climate change impacts on land productivity for major food and nonfood grain crops in India. We compiled data for 50 years (1967–2016) using 15 crops across India to estimate the variation of agriculture production for each crop by different variables such as temperature and rainfall estimation. Our results indicate that land productivity decreases with an increase in annual average temperature in most of the crops. The adverse impact of climate change on agricultural production indicates food security threat to small and marginal farming households and adversely affected due to climatic fluctuations. Results show that a rise in temperature would reduce agricultural productivity and assessed sensitivity of Indian agriculture to climate change.     

中国农业补贴政策变动趋势及其影响分析

中国农业补贴政策需要根据未来国内需要和世界贸易组织要求适当调整,本文试图通过对中国农业补贴政策的分析,得到对政策变动趋势的判断并分析其经济影响.本研究使用全球贸易一般均衡模型(GTAP)及其全球贸易和投入产出数据库,通过设计黄箱政策补贴和绿箱政策支持总量增减的变化,设定不同政策方案,模拟中国农业补贴政策可能的变化,讨论在黄箱政策补贴受限情形下,绿箱政策支持对黄箱政策补贴的替代作用和可行性,分析补贴增减给中国和世界主要农业生产区域农业生产和农产品贸易造成的影响.研究结果表明,增加中国农业黄箱政策补贴和绿箱政策支持会减少中国整体福利,但会促进农业生产和进出口贸易;当前应当继续稳定实施黄箱政策补贴,并逐步把农业国内支持政策由黄箱过渡到绿箱.对农业补贴政策变动趋势及影响的研究,将为中国政府进行农业补贴相关政策的制定提供参考.     

Regulation under uncertainty: The coevolution of industry and regulation

As production and design disintegrate and become more collaborative, involving dynamic relations between customers and firms supplying complex subsystems and service, products and production methods become more innovative but also more hazardous. The inadvertent co‐production of latent hazards by independent firms is forcing firms and regulators to address the problem of uncertainty – the inability to anticipate, much less assign a probability to future states of the world – more directly than before. Under uncertainty, neither the regulator nor the regulated firms know what needs to be done. The regulator must induce firms to systematically canvas their practices and identify potential hazards. But recognizing the fallibility of all such efforts, the regulator must further foster the institutionalization of incident or event reporting procedures: systems to register failures in products or production processes that could be precursors to catastrophe; to trace out and correct their root causes; to alert others in similar situations to the potential hazard; and to make certain that countermeasures to ensure the safety of current operations are taken and the design requirements for the next generation of the implicated components or installations are updated accordingly. In this essay we develop these arguments and look closely at changes in the Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry and its regulator, the Petroleum Safety Authority to better understand the coevolution of vertically disintegrated industry and new forms of regulation.