Russia and the USA: The virtual games of superpowers

An analysis of the rapid and dramatic changes in the politics and economics of the world during the twentieth century reveals that the role of science and high technology becomes extremely important for international development, security and cooperation. The consequences of fundamental research become critical for mankind, and they determine and define preventive security. International scientific and technological cooperation, coupled with the financial power of the dollar, will make it possible to avoid an ‘end of history’ or a ‘clash of civilizations’, as well as to resolve many world conflicts. The importance that science and technology hold for the future of humanity must be added to the current definition of ‘democracy’.     

A “German Paperchase”: The “Scrap of Paper” Controversy and the Problem of Myth and Memory in International History

abstract

Anglo‐Russian relations during the period 1894–1914 were filled with incidents in large part stemming from the very different social and political frameworks of the two countries. The two countries had sharply differing traditions concerning individual liberty, freedom of the press and other such matters usually covered by the rubric of human rights. While the realities of great power politics forced the two countries to work together, it is not surprising that their collaboration was often marred by clashes of political and social sensibilities.     

Borders of memory: affirmation and contestation over Japan’s heritage

Abstract

This essay, introducing the special issue on ‘Borders of Memory’, aims to shed light on the links between memory and heritage in contemporary Japan. It does so by examining how heritage sites serve as spaces within which collective memory is both affirmed and contested. Heritage sites enable us to survey the contours of the borders of memory that exist between different memory collectives. An analysis of South Korean and Chinese objections to the Meiji Industrial Sites shows how these heritage sites work as borders of memory, spaces where the competing collective memories of neighbouring East Asian governments and societies clash and rub up against one another. This analysis is then extended to the four articles that make up this special issue. In each case, it is the competing meanings invested in the site, and the struggle over the narrative within which it is incorporated, that results in such sites coming to be demarcated as borders of memory. Understanding these heritage sites as bordered spaces allows us to see such them as being not only where antagonistic collective memories come into contact, but also spaces through which they connect. The existence of such spaces enables the political process of articulating the stories associated with different memory collectives.     

Evidence-Informed Prevention of Civil Wars and Mass Atrocities

Abstract

The prevention discourse in all its forms has tended to ignore or at least downplay the epistemic problems with prevention. Forecasting political violence is not as easy as the debate on early warning often assumes. Effectively forestalling political violence and mass atrocities is much more difficult than the often used rhetoric of a ‘tool box’ implies, which creates the impression that one knows what works. An evidence-informed prevention policy needs to be aware of the limits of our knowledge, but at the same time knowledgeable of what social science research can provide – even if the results are provisional, often controversial and fraught with methodological problems.     

What if morality should turn out to be the danger of dangers?1 Global ethics terrorism and the growth of ignorance

Abstract

Two characteristic features of the age of globalisation are (i) the increasing areas that are being moralised and an inflation in the production of discourses on ethics, and with it (ii) an increase in the salience of nonsense in public discourse and mass media content. While scholars and media pundits argue that the proliferation of discourses about morality and global ethics is aimed at moral regeneration and an elimination of nonsense, this article argues that on the contrary, the proliferation of moralising and the formulation of codes of ethics result in an increase of nonsense in public discourse and are eliminating freedom of speech and critical scholarship. Taking a Nietzschean and Machiavellian perspective, this article seeks to unveil the discourse on ethics as a strategy and tactic in the global clash of civilizations, whereby moralising and ethics are used as weapons of war. Today the fabrication of politically correct global ethics is an intellectual treason and poses a greater danger than terrorism.     

Book Review: Troubled Talk and Talking Cures: From “Smart Talk” to Wise Conversations

Interpersonal communication is widely viewed as both a source of conflict in many social relationships and a cure-all for resolving such conflict. Some theorists assert that we simply do not interact, or talk, enough in modern society; others point out that our communication styles seem increasingly argumentative, exclude important potential contributors, or are strategically facile but shallow. The author discusses the various forms of dysfunctional talk in which people engage, then reviews four recent books, all of which focus (at least in part) on how we might talk (and negotiate) with one another more constructively: Bargaining for Advantage, by G. Richard Shell; Winning 'Em Over, by Jay C. Conger; Difficult Conversations, by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton and Sheila Heen; and The Magic of Dialogue by Daniel Yankelovich.     

Uncertain India? Deepening globalization,unanticipated consequences and the challenge of sustainability

ABSTRACT

Taken together, these essays are an eye-opener for those who still see India as a homeostatic society, trapped into caste and custom. The articles on transparency in public transactions, financial credit market reform, effect of the new, reformed economy on the leaders of business and industry and the general framework for understanding India’s “reform consolidation,” present different facets of a society on the move. They showcase how endogenous transformation interlocks with external stimuli and opportunities. This introduction is a succinct analysis of the course of India’s development in specific arenas, contradictions, and resilience of the general process of which they are a part, and, most important of all, the convergence of endogenous developments and exogenous conditions that have emerged as critical determinants of the durability of India’s globalization. However, thanks to India’s noisy but resilient democracy, the direction and pace of India’s globalization, locked into the clash of two paradigms, one drawing its legitimacy from the rhetoric of secularism and social justice and, the other, leveraging on muscular nationalism, deep cultural roots, and rapid corporate-led growth, remains uncertain.     

The levels of analysis problems and the study of foreign international,and global affairs: A review critique,and another final solution

Discussions about the “levels of analysis problem” have proliferated the field for almost two decades. In 1961, J. David Singer began the discussion in a now classic article. In response to Singer, analysts like Robert Isaak have attacked the Singer interpretation while many others have carelessly or obliviously skirted the issues surrounding the levels of analysis problem. Much of the confusion can be traced to a failure to view the importance of analytical levels in the aggregate analytical process and a failure to differentiate between causal and effectual levels of analysis. Causal levels of analysis are those whose variables or factors are antecedent to a particular behavior; effectual levels are those on which the behavior or phenomena in question actually occur, that is, on which the effect or result of the causal variables manifests itself. With reference to the aggregate analytical process, whenever scholars engage in inquiry they necessarily employ at least one causal and one effectual level of analysis. When properly conceptualized, levels of analysis considerations can lead to more structured and more productive foreign policy, international, and global analyses. Some of these analyses can be strengthened even more via the use of analytical frameworks constructed from conceptualizations of dual levels of analysis.     

Diplomatic communication theory: Signals,channels, networks

The analysis of international or diplomatic communication is approached at three levels: channels (viz, dyads), signals‐messages (viz. international events‐intents), and networks (viz. international systems). Diplomatic channel theory utilizes an interpretation of the classical Shannon‐Weaver communication model and outlines a statistical information analysis of international events signals with empirical examples. Analysis of international mediation suggests several counterintuitive problems in information processing at the channel level. Diplomatic network theory distinguishes between three different communication structures: one‐to‐one, one‐to‐group, and one‐to‐subgroup. Each communication structure at the network level has characteristic complexity and channel requirements. The presence of nonlinear phenomena at both channel and network levels is emphasized, as well as asymmetries between conflict and cooperative interactions at the signal level.     

Clear and Present Strangers: The Clash of Civilizations and International Conflict

Huntington's (1993a, 1993b, 1996) clash of civilizations thesis suggests that states belonging to different civilizations are more likely to become involved in conflict with one another. To evaluate the empirical accuracy of Huntington's claims, we examined the relationship between civilization membership and interstate war between 1816 and 1992. We find that civilization membership was not significantly associated with the onset of interstate war during the Cold War era (1946–1988), which is consistent with one aspect of Huntington's thesis; however, we also find that for the pre–Cold War period (1816–1945) states of similar civilizations were more likely to fight each other than were those of different civilizations, which contradicts Huntington's thesis. Most importantly, our analysis reveals that during the post–Cold War era (1989–1992), the period in which Huntington contends that the clash of civilizations should be most apparent, civilization membership was not significantly associated with the probability of interstate war. All told, our findings challenge Huntington's claims and seriously undermine the policy recommendations that devolve from his clash of civilizations thesis.     

Patterns of Internet and Traditional News Media Use in a Networked Community

Abstract

International communication has come increasingly under the impact of at least three major technological, socio‐economic, and political forces: expanded channels of communication provided by technological developments, democratizing pressures that have brought new voices to be heard in international media and forums, and new but as yet weak mechanisms for the conduct of meaningful dialogue and negotiations. Power politics has been thus increasingly supplemented or supplanted by image politics, questioning traditional boundaries between domestic and international politics, and creating image fixations that have proved occasionally inimical to accommodation of real interests. The symbolic uses of images, on the other hand, have served at least three kinds of cognitive interests: national solidarity, and domestic instrumental and global community. The Iranian hostage crisis, among a number of other contemporary examples, illustrates how these interests were served, symbolically and actually, in domestic as well as international politics. Through a case study of the hostage crisis, me paper concludes with some warnings on the potentials as well as menaces of image politics.     

The Middle East’s Troubled Relationship with the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The Middle East has had a complex relationship with the so-called liberal international order. Many peoples and elites of the region welcomed the promise, and promises, of the liberal order after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and sought to integrate into it; for other peoples and elites, there have been negative reactions and resistance to it. Today, a majority of countries are integrated, at least nominally, into the global order, while some are decidedly still in systemic challenge with it. The Middle East has also had difficulty in cohering as a region; the condition today is one of collapsed regional order and proxy conflict.     

Journalism Education Abroad

SUMMARY

The relationship between the media and terrorism is a complex one. This article is an attempt to discuss this relationship systematically by looking at the various relevant components in the media/terrorism debate, namely terrorists, governments, the media, the security forces, hostages and the public. International research related to these components is also dealt with. In conclusion a few recommendations are made that could also be considered in the formulation of media policy concerning the coverage of terrorism in the South African media.     

Forgiveness and Reconciliation: The Religious Dimension

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on “forgiveness” as one of the most conspicuous expressions of the growing role of religion in conflict transformation. The main questions put forward are the following: What is the role of forgiveness in reconciliation? Is forgiveness a necessary condition for reconciliation between former enemies? Is it sufficient for bringing about real and stable peace between them? To what extent and how does religion affect the reconciliation via forgiveness process?

This paper distinguishes between material conflicts, which evolve around material and dividable assets, and identity conflicts, which involve deep-seated hatred originating in the feeling of at least one of the sides that the other has usurped their legitimate rights. While material conflicts can be brought to an end through traditional conflict resolution techniques, identity conflicts need “track two” diplomacy strategies, and particularly forgiveness in order to reach reconciliation. Forgiveness, basically a religious concept, is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for bringing about reconciliation in identity conflicts. To the extent that the sides to the conflict share similar religious convictions regarding the centrality and nature of forgiveness, religion will contribute to reconciliation. But if the contenders hold different (let alone conflicting) tenets regarding forgiveness, religion may hamper the reconciliation process.

A quick glance at the three monotheistic religions shows significant differences in their approaches toward forgiveness. While Judaism, and to some extent Islam, see repentance as a sine qua non for forgiveness, Christianity highlights mercy and love and teaches its believers to ask and grant forgiveness without preconditions. These differences may widen the gap between the parties to an identity conflict that wish to resolve their conflict and ultimately reach full and genuine reconciliation. The arguments put forward in this paper need to be put to the test in historic and actual cases of identity conflicts. The Israeli–Palestinian conflict could serve as a suitable example for such a test.     

Reproduction Versus Transformation: The Case of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

ABSTRACT

This article offers a constructive critique of Fehl and Freistein's argument that international organisations (IOs) significantly affect international stratification, either producing, reproducing or transforming inequality. It suggests that without reference to the specific purposes which individual IOs pursue and the forces driving global change, it is impossible to predict either when the goals of IOs and states might diverge, or when a particular IO might promote the reproduction of inequality on the one hand, or its transformation on the other. In particular, divergence between states on the one hand and IOs charged with the management of the global economy on the other is explained by the fact that the IOs concerned are committed to the reproduction of capital on a global scale, and therefore to the continuous transformation of global hierarchies. The argument is supported by a case study of IO support for China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).     

Validity of power indices

An important approach to understanding power seeks a generalized measure that can rank nation‐states from the most to the least powerful. Data‐oriented researchers have developed several such single‐ and multivariable, linear and nonlinear indices. The test of their usefulness varies with their intended purpose. For policymakers desiring the most efficient way to assess the likelihood that a nation‐state can achieve its goals, the key issues are parsimony in the selection of variables, stability over time, combinatorial patterns enabling successful prediction, and applicability across a range of situations. For theoreticians the index must “work” within the chosen theoretical context. If several indices meet the constraints imposed by the theory, then that one should be chosen that introduces the least amount of additonal (nontheoretical) information.     

United Nations peacekeeping and terrorism: short-term risks and long-term benefits

ABSTRACT

Does the introduction of UN forces impact terrorism? We argue that at least initially, UN peacekeeping missions may significantly shift the local conflict bargaining process, creating incentives for terrorist and insurgent groups to increase their attacks against civilians. UN missions create a symbolic endpoint to initial negotiations, alter the balance of power between combatants, and may change the relationship between local combatants and the civilian population they rely on for support. We test this argument using monthly data from 12 African countries, analyzing the risk of terrorism at the local level. We find that the introduction of UN forces in an area significantly increases the short-term risk of terrorism, but longer missions in the country reduce this risk.     

Military Dialogue in the Euro‐Mediterranean Charter: An Unjustified Absence

The summer 2006 war in Lebanon can be perceived through at least five different frames of reference. The US administration saw the war in Lebanon as a local manifestation of the global war on terror. According to this framework, Hezbollah is an Al Qaeda-type enemy, not a national group with a local agenda and constituency; bargaining with Hezbollah is not possible. This point of view makes fighting global terror more difficult and jeopardises the search for stability and peace in the region. Many Israeli and European politicians saw the war as a confrontation between radical Islam and a modern Israeli state, a clash of cultures between Islamic fundamentalists and Western civilisation. This frame of reference, however, fails to recognise the fault line within the Muslim world itself, between those who want to integrate their societies into a globalised world and those who do not. The conflict in Lebanon can also be interpreted as a consequence of the weakening of a state, a framework which underlines the need to strengthen Arab institutions, or as an asymmetrical war between an armed nation state and a guerrilla movement. Finally, the war in Lebanon can be seen as a conflict over power, land, resources and sovereignty–the classic realist perspective. If the international community fails to work toward a comprehensive peace settlement in the Middle East, another framework will gain strength in the Arab world: one that interprets events according to a theory of non-negotiable conflicts between Western imperialism and radical Islamic resistance.     

News constructs of customary identity versus democratic practice: the case of Lindiwe Dlamini and Mswati III of Swaziland

Abstract

If colonial Africa was governed through ‘indirect rule’ or ‘decentralised despotism’ (Mamdani 1996:8), its legacy remains surprisingly intact post independence. If the notion of the tribe lay at the heart of indirect rule and was effected by institutional segregation, such identities were discursively produced and sustained by being constantly flagged through a range of institutional structures in order to produce ‘willing subjects’ (Foucault 1977). The media has increasingly played a central role in flagging such identities as well as those that contest them, notably a civil identity.

This article examines how ethnic identity continues to be discursively deployed in opposition to democratic governance by focusing on one incident, namely the choice of the Swazi monarch‘s twelfth bride at the annual Reed Dance and its contestation by the bride's mother. The Times of Swaziland covered this dispute and provides an interesting case study. The analysis identifies how the contestations between customary and human rights discourses in this one African location are variously deployed and negotiated by the social actors in this instance, and it teases out the contradictions and tensions between them.