特朗普政府北极事务“安全化”政策及其实践

特朗普政府的北极政策秉承"美国优先"的执政理念,将中国和俄罗斯在北极地区的行动视为对美国的"挑战",否认气候变化是导致北极问题的主要因素。基于此种认知,特朗普政府的北极政策特别注重美国国家安全和国土安全的维护,对北极事务进行"安全化",注重加强美国在北极地区的能力建设,但在气候变化领域的国际合作方面则明显滞后。特朗普政府的这些政策在一定程度上阻滞了北极事务的国际合作,为北极治理增添了地缘政治竞争的色彩,不利于北极事务的善治。     

环境问题与美国国家安全战略

本文认为环境安全是美国国家安全的重要组成部分.这是因为环境问题对美国国家安全客观上造成了现实和潜在的威胁性,主观上美国在国家安全战略中已经把环境问题确认为安全问题.美国在防务环境安全的政策和实践方面领先于其他国家,但在国际机制的某些方面过于关注自身的相对收益,阻碍了国际环境合作.     

美国对华技术出口政策的非经济功用

本文考察了美国对华技术出口政策及其利益基础的历史变动,从美国的国家安全利益、国内政治因素和美国对中国内政的干涉三个方面剖析美国对华技术出口政策的非经济功用,探讨了这一政策与中美政治关系的互动关系.     

德国安全化气候议题的策略与动因分析

一直以来,德国将气候安全主流化作为其对外政策的核心目标之一,积极致力于推动国际层面气候变化安全化的实现.德国作为全球气候治理中的关键行为体,其在气候议题安全化上的行为策略和动因具有重要的研究价值.然而现有研究对德国在气候议题安全化中的角色关注不足,哥本哈根学派安全化理论对安全化主体行动策略和动因的分析也较为笼统.本文基于对哥本哈根学派和已有学术研究的梳理和反思,尝试构建安全化策略与动因的分析框架,并运用这一框架对德国推动气候变化安全化的策略和动因进行分析.本文认为,德国通过寻求气候安全化话语主导权,利用多种话语平台,积极壮大话语同盟,推动气候议题进入全球安全议程.其安全化政策偏好受到对这一问题与自身相关性的认识、应对气候风险的技术和经验优势和安全化气候议题的政治收益三方面因素的驱动.     

澳大利亚气候变化政策的解读与评价

2007年底澳大利亚政局发生变化,工党领袖陆克文就任第26任总理,随即正式批准了<京都议定书>.本文以2007年以来澳大利亚气候变化新政策为着力点,回顾了澳大利亚气候变化政策的历史变动,解读了澳大利亚气候变化政策体系,分析了政策变化的动因,评价了其意义及启示,展望了气候变化国际框架的发展方向.     

试析美国核不扩散政策与地区安全

美国核不扩散政策对地区安全有着重要影响.美国核不扩散政策导致了伊朗核问题等地区性核问题的再次升温,加剧了地区紧张局势.美国在反核扩散过程中追求建立"核常结合、攻防兼备"的全面军事和战略优势的企图不利于大国在反核扩散过程中的相互合作和战略互信.美国把反核扩散重点指向"无赖国家",有可能使恐怖主义渔翁得利,以及促进地区核竞赛.美国唯有回到包容政策立场并和伊朗等国进行严肃谈判,目前的地区核危机才可能得到解决.朝核问题开始走向外交解决之路就是一个有力证明.     

美国对海底权利的诉求与国内利益的平衡——以海底界限的争论为中心(1969～1972)

美国海底政策的出台在很大程度上取决于国内利益的平衡.本文从政府部门间、利益集团闻及部门机构与利益集团闻相互博弈的角度,对影响美国海洋政策转向的因素进行探讨.文章认为,1945年<杜鲁门公告>是美国首次海底权利声明,在美国国内引起了关于是否扩展大陆架权利的争论.从美国政府内部关于宽狭大陆架界限的分歧到利益集团关于经济利益与军事利益的争论,其中的分歧或趋同主导了尼克松政府在海底界限问题上的两次政策转向.最终美国将海底问题交由联合国,回归国际海洋体系.这反映出美国国内部门、集团利益在美国海洋决策中的地位和作用.     

气候变化、综合安全保障与欧盟的生态现代化战略

由于气候变化问题对于全球经济社会的全局性和弥散性影响,应对气候变化问题的战略行动不但具有重要的安全意义,而且具有重要的经济影响。安全考量始终是欧盟气候议题的重要影响因素,其经历了从单向度的生态安全向经济安全、能源安全、社会安全和生态安全等多维度结合的综合安全变化。为了有效应对气候变化带来的安全影响,并获得未来低碳经济的主导权,欧盟正在其内部及国际上打造一个综合安全保障战略,通过应对全球气候变化,使欧盟获得经济安全、能源安全、社会安全与生态安全。欧盟把应对气候变化作为其重要的战略支点,通过实施生态现代化战略,以撬动整个经济社会的低碳转型,最终实现其综合安全保障战略。德国在应对气候变化问题上采取的生态现代化战略既成功实现了减排目标,也提升了德国经济的竞争力,而且还有效缓解了德国的能源安全问题,是欧盟国家中应对气候变化和实施生态现代化战略比较成功的典范。     

欧盟的东亚外交与安全政策:自主抑或追随?

针对欧盟在东亚是非安全行为体和美国的追随者的传统认知,本文从欧盟在东亚的政策目标设定、实现政策目标的资源以及对东亚安全与稳定的贡献出发,论证欧盟在东亚地区是安全行为体并具有政策自主性。欧盟作为非国家行为体,在东亚政策上的自主性是相对于美国而言的,即具有关系性和相对性,并处于不断提升的过程中。与此同时,由于欧盟与美国是"价值观伙伴",在东亚地区的利益具有一致性,欧盟通过政策宣示、政策对话和硬安全领域的政策一致性等保持其自主性和跨大西洋联盟之间的平衡。     

论第二次世界大战时期美国对日裔美国公民的拘留政策

日本袭击珍珠港之后,美国以“军事安全”为由,将美国西海岸十几万日本人(包括美国公民和日本侨民)迁移到内地的拘留营。从这一政策的决策过程来看,虽然政策实施的对象上看只针对日裔,而且美国决策层在是否大规模拘留敌侨的问题上有分歧,但充分暴露了美国这一政策的种族主义根源。日裔美国人也通过这一事件,从反面表明了他们对美国的忠诚,这为战后美国对亚洲移民政策的进一步松动创造了条件。本文拟对美国战时对日裔美国公民的政策的决策过程、实施的后果及影响做一简单的历史回顾,求教于史学界的师长和同仁。     

改变与延续:奥巴马政府的东亚政策与东亚一体化

本文旨在探讨奥巴马政府的东亚政策及其对东亚一体化的影响.作者认为:奥巴马政府的东亚政策可以用"安全"、"繁荣"、"人权"和"环保"四个词来概括,在安全和经贸方面大体会延续前任政府的政策,在环保和人权方面会进行一定的变革,在经贸方面也会和以往有所不同.总体而言,奥巴马的东亚政策对东亚一体化既有积极的一面,但也必须认识到其消极的一面.最后,针对美国的关注与担忧及如何推动东亚一体化,本文提出了一些政策建议.     

The Secret Japan-US Security Pacts: Background and Disclosure

For many years the Japan-US Security Treaty has been the cornerstone of Japanese foreign policy and security policy. Suspicions have long been voiced, however, that behind the security treaty there lurked unpublicized secret pacts. In particular, despite the denials of the Japanese government, there were suspicions that nuclear-armed warships had in fact called at Japanese ports. With the change in government in September 2009, the issue came to be the subject of an investigation by the new Democratic Party of Japan administration. The author of this article served as chairman of the commission of inquiry.     

Post-Hegemonic Climate Politics?

The article argues that the effects of a new US president on global climate politics will be rather less than might be expected. This is partly because the rhetorical differences between Bush, his predecessor Clinton and President Obama mask great continuities in US climate change politics since the early 1990s. It is also because, unlike in other issue areas, the EU has moved into a position of clear international leadership, which is likely to provoke diplomatic conflict, both for standard reasons of realpolitik but more precisely because of the different growth strategies pursued by each side and the different implications of those strategies for climate policy. Finally, the emergence of a dense pattern of transnational climate governance will increasingly constrain the options for either side in pursuing new climate change agreements after 2012.     

Anxiety and Diminished Hope: The Potential Impact of Trump’s Presidency on Security in the Pacific Islands Region

Abstract

The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the US has caused much international consternation and anxiety. Reactions have been based on distrust and rejection of Trump’s political ideology, behavioural disposition and unpredictable policy positions. His campaign speeches were filled with provocative utterances which were racist, sexist, homophobic, anti-environment and self-centred. This article examines some possible impacts of Trump’s presidency on the Pacific island countries (PICs). The first issue refers to how Trump’s proposed isolationist and militarisation policies may affect regional geopolitics. The two policies tend to contradict each other because while isolationism means pulling back on US economic and strategic presence in the Pacific, a reversal of the pivot to Asia-Pacific policy, militarisation implies greater strategic reach, regionally and globally. What does this seemingly contradictory approach mean for the PICs? Second, the article looks at the impact of Trump’s climate change denial stance and the responses by PICs, given the fact that climate change is the single most significant foreign policy and development initiative of the PICs since their independence. The third issue deals with the potential impact of Trump’s restrictive migration policies on remittance flow to the PICs and how these affect the small island economies and well-being.     

欧盟应对气候变化的全球治理:对外决策模式与行动动因

气候变化是当今最为重要的全球公共问题。欧盟在全球应对行动中是最具影响力的行为体之一。欧盟的气候决策模式决定了其气候外交行动的方式,并对全球气候行动进程具有重大影响。探讨欧盟气候行动的深层动因,有助于理解欧盟气候政策的机理和对外行动的逻辑。本文将从外交政策的视角研究欧盟的气候决策模式,从动机和外部因素两个方面解读促使欧盟致力于领导国际气候谈判的深层原因。     

Public perception of energy security in Lithuania: between material interest and energy independence

The issue of the energy security in social sciences research area is mostly prevalent in political sciences. The sociological research of the issues of energy is rather scarce. The reasons of the lack of concern about sociology of energy security could be related to the specific geopolitical context of post-Soviet states. The energy policy of new democratic post-Soviet states are pressed to reconstruct the entire energy system of former Soviet Union. This is not only technological or political, but maybe, first of all, social issue directly related to the consumption of users of gas and electricity and their prices. The societies and different social groups become an important social actors in the stressful energy policy. There is a lack of attention not only to social determinants of perception of energy security but also a lack of deeper analysis of public opinion in Lithuania. This article aims to improve our understanding of the Lithuanian public perception of energy security. This article focuses on two aspects: (a) An analysis of public opinion on the most important aspects of energy security and the social factors influencing them. The hypothesis is that public perception of energy security is related to value orientations. (b) An analysis of how public opinion on energy policy executed by the government and confidence in the government are intertwined with the concept of energy security.     

Les barrières à la mise en œuvre des politiques d’adaptation au changement climatique: le cas de la Suisse

Abstract: The implementation of climate change adaptation polices has barely occurred in developed countries. This paper examines to what extent the perceptions of political actors might hinder the development of adaptation policies. We study the Swiss case using computer aided textual analysis. Our results demonstrate that adaptation is still not perceived as an important dimension of climate change policy. Decision makers do not perceive links between adaptation, the Swiss economy and the energy supply. Adaptation is mainly considered an issue for developing countries and not as a way to reduce the impacts of climate change in Switzerland. Right‐wing parties tend to consider adaptation a secondary issue and are more likely than those to the left to object to the formulation or the implementation of public measures.     

气候政策立场的国内经济基础——对欧盟成员国生态产业发展的比较分析

由于气候变化问题本身所具有的全球性特征,应对气候变化的技术革新及市场化所形成的生态产业对于一国未来发展潜力及经济地位无疑具有非常重要的影响。一个国家生态产业的力量越强,则越倾向于采取积极的气候政策,其参与国际气候谈判的立场也越积极与超前。本文通过对欧盟15个成员国生态产业和气候政策立场的分析考察证实,生态产业实力较强的德国、奥地利、荷兰一直是欧盟气候变化政策的积极"领导者",而生态产业实力相对较弱的西班牙、葡萄牙、希腊和爱尔兰是欧盟气候政策的"拖后腿者",处于中间地位的英国、意大利、比利时、丹麦、卢森堡总体上政策立场趋于积极,法国、芬兰、瑞典情况复杂。因此,本文认为,生态产业实力的大小是决定欧盟成员国气候政策及其参与国际气候治理立场的重要因素。     

Japan as an Active Agent for Global Norms: The Political Dynamism Behind the Acceptance and Promotion of “Human Security”

Japan has shaped a distinct human security policy based on evolving policy preferences of successive domestic political leaders and the gradual assimilation of external norms into its own foreign policy. Independent experts have played a particularly significant role in advising Japanese policy elites on how human security could be used by Japan to become an “intellectual leader” within the United Nations and other relevant institutions. This article explores those processes that occurred in the early phase of norm acceptance on the part of key Japanese policy actors and change agents in Japan from the late 1990s through 2003. It argues that human security has served as an effective approach for Japan to establish itself as a more independent foreign policy actor in contemporary international politics.     

Understanding Israel's Long Conflict in Lebanon: The Search for an Alternative Approach to Security During the Peace Process

The Arab‐Israeli peace process pointed to a resolution of the Middle East's most persistent conflict, as the Rabin and Peres governments developed a sensitivity to the Arab‐Israeli ‘security dilemma’, but by 1996 the process was deadlocked. Events stalled progress, but so did ingrained attitudes that continued to shape policy that was inconsistent with the peace process. The following article explains some of the Realist norms and values at the root of security thinking in Israel, and charts their inertia in Israeli policy during the peace process, focusing on its approach to Lebanon. The article gives an insight into why Rabin and his successors struggled to find an alternative policy towards Lebanon, and how this prolonged the Arab‐Israeli conflict. The efforts of the Netanyahu and Barak governments to find a solution to the policy problem of Lebanon are outlined.