Prisons and Crime, Backwards in High Heels

Objectives

Prisons reduce crime rates, but crime increases prison populations. OLS estimates of the effects of prisons on crime combine the two effects and are biased toward zero. The standard solution—to identify the crime equation by finding instruments for prison—is suspect, because most variables that predict prison populations can be expected to affect crime, as well. An alternative is to identify the prison equation by finding instruments for crime, allowing an unbiased estimate of the effect of crime on prisons. Because the two coefficients in a simultaneous system are related through simple algebra, we can then work backward to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of prisons on crime.

Methods

Potential instruments for crime are tested and used to identify the prison equation for the 50 U.S. states for the period 1978–2009. The effect of prisons on crime consistent with this relationship is obtained through algebra; standard errors are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

Resulting estimates of the effect of prisons on crime are around ?0.25 ± 0.15. This is larger than biased OLS estimates, but similar in size to previous estimates based on standard instruments.

Conclusions

When estimating the effect of a public policy response on a public problem, it may be more productive to find instruments for the problem and work backward than to find instruments for the response and work forward.     

Prison commitments,crime, and unemployment: A theoretical and empirical specification for the United States, 1933–1985

This paper examines sources for the changing commitment rates to U.S. state prisons (PCR) from 1933 to 1985 using a variety of time-series techniques. Theoretically, it resolves ambiguous interpretations of how crime, unemployment, and imprisonment are related. Hypotheses that crime and punishment are in equilibrium are rejected. Our final specification supports theories integrating institutionally endogenous and socially exogenous causes of prison use and includes feedback effects between crime and punishment. We reached several general conclusions. (1) Changes in PCR are due partly to changes in the levels of unemployment, age composition of the population, and military active-duty rates. (2) Effects of the criminal justice system, captured as autoregressive institutional drift, account for approximately half of the year-to-year fluctuations in the PCR. The contemporaneous prison discharge rate also influences the rate of prison commitments. (3) Neither the specified nor the unspecified institutional effects mediate the effects of other exogenous variables. (4) Under most simultaneous-equation specifications, the crime rate is moderately influenced by the contemporaneous unemployment rate and strongly influenced by prior levels of prison commitments. The preferred simultaneous causal model estimates a modest positive coefficient for the unemployment-crime causal path and a substantial positive coefficient for the unemployment-prison commitment causal path.     

The Incapacitation Effect of First-Time Imprisonment: A Matched Samples Comparison

Objectives

The logic of incapacitation is the prevention of crime via the forced removal of known offenders from the community. The challenge is to provide a plausible estimate of how many crimes an incarcerated individual would have committed, were s/he free in the community rather than confined in prison. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the incapacitation effect of first-time imprisonment from a sample of convicted offenders.

Methods

The data are official criminal records of all individuals convicted in The Netherlands in 1997. Two different analytical strategies are used to estimate an incapacitation effect. First, the offending rate of the imprisoned individuals prior to their confinement in 1997 provides a “within-person counterfactual”. Second, imprisoned offenders are paired with comparable non-imprisoned offenders using the method of propensity score matching in order to estimate a “between-person counterfactual”. Incapacitation estimates are provided separately for juvenile imprisonment (ages 12–17) as well as adult imprisonment (ages 18–50), and for male and female offenders.

Results

The best estimate is that 1 year of incarceration prevents between 0.17 and 0.21 convictions per year. The use of additional data sources indicates that this corresponds to between roughly 2.0 and 2.5 criminal offenses recorded by the police.

Conclusions

The current results suggest that, insofar as imprisonment is used with the primary goal of reducing crime through incapacitation, a general increase in the use of incarceration as the sanction of choice is not likely to yield major crime control benefits.     

The effectiveness of prison for reducing drug offender recidivism: a regression discontinuity analysis

Objectives

An enduring legacy of the 1980s “war on drugs” is the increased use of imprisonment for drug offenders. Advocates anticipated, in part, that prison is more effective than community sanctions in reducing recidivism. Despite the contribution of drug offender incarceration to prison growth nationally, and debates about whether this approach should be curtailed, only limited rigorous research exists that evaluates the effect of imprisonment on drug offender recidivism. To address this gap, this paper uses sentencing and recidivism data from a cohort of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses in Florida to examine the effect of imprisonment—as compared to community sanctions—on recidivism.

Methods

Regression discontinuity analyses are used. These minimize potential selection bias by exogenously assigning cases to conditions based on a rating variable and a cut-off score.

Results

Results indicate that prison has no effect on drug offenders’ rates of reconviction. This finding holds across a range of offender subgroups (racial and ethnic, gender, age, and prior criminal justice system involvement).

Conclusions

Imprisoning individuals convicted of marginally serious drug offenses—that is, those close to a cut-off score for being sent to prison—did not reduce subsequent offending. This finding suggests that curtailing the use of imprisonment for such individuals will not appreciably affect future criminal activity and may have the benefit of reducing correctional system costs.

     

UNEMPLOYMENT,IMPRISONMENT, AND SOCIAL STRUCTURES OF ACCUMULATION: HISTORICAL CONTINGENCY IN THE RUSCHE-KIRCHHEIMER HYPOTHESIS*

This study explores the relationship between punishment and social structure by combining the work of Rusche and Kirchheimer with current theorizing regarding social structures of accumulation (SSAs). Specifically, we theorize that the unemployment-imprisonment (U-I) relationship is historically contingent. In particular, we argue that qualitative changes in the configuration of labor markets, state strategies for managing surplus populations, and international relations across SSAs and stages within them result in changes in the magnitude and direction of the U-I relationship. In other words, changes in the qualitative relations among capital, labor, and the state are reflected in quantitative changes in the relationship between rates of unemployment and imprisonment. We hypothesize that three stages of the Fordist SSA (exploration, 1933–1947; consolidation, 1948–1966; decay, 1967–1979) will manifest varying levels of a positive and significant U-I relationship, while the first stage of the new globalized, cyber-technology SSA (1980–1992) will be characterized by a negative U-I relationship due to the co-emergence of a (semi)permanent underclass and an intensification of punitiveness. We test this model using a structurally periodized analysis to determine if the relationship between rates of unemployment and new court admissions to prison (net of rates of violent crime) differs across the four periods studied. Our analysis of the U-I relationship within each SSA phase, and time-varying parameter tests of the periodization of twentieth-century capitalist development, indicate that the U-I relationship is indeed historically contingent and warrants further structurally periodized analysis.     

Dimensions of innovation

Within a conceptual framework of three dimensions, this paper examines parallels between the process of innovation in ship-building and in nursing care. Major conclusions are:

1. A given innovation must include not only technological change but also embedding activities to ensure its fit into the adopting organization.
2. To ensure continuation of the innovating process, it is necessary to build innovative capacity, with leadership vested in some person or group.
3. System-wide innovation requires both an effective diffusion process and diffusion capacity, to disseminate knowledge about specific innovations and also about ways to build innovative capacity.
4. Building both innovative capacity and diffusion capacity must be seen as responsibilities of the entire organization or system.

     

“Fixed” Sentencing: The Effect on Imprisonment Rates Over Time

Objective

Sentencing guidelines, statutory presumptive sentencing, determinate sentencing, truth in sentencing, and three strikes are important components of the criminal justice system. The main purpose behind a relatively-fixed sentence is to remove judicial discretion by insuring that convicted felons receive a reasonably-assumed sentence depending on the crime committed. The current study assessed shifts in year-to-year changes in incarceration rates within all 50 states from the years 1965–2008 due to the adoption of sentencing reforms.

Methods

The study tests two competing theories, a normative theory and critical theory of the expected effects of reforms on imprisonment. Data was analyzed using panel regression with unit-specific fixed effects, conditional change scores, panel corrected standard errors, and a new measure of reforms.

Results

This study, possibly due to differences in model specification, ran counter to a number of previous studies and suggests some “front-end” sentencing reforms and “back-end” release changes are, on average, related to changes in imprisonment.

Conclusions

The study concluded, that when significant, reforms increased more than decreased prison growth in comparison to indeterminate sentencing. Additionally, the analysis concludes that changes in release mechanisms and parole decision structures are driving increased growth more than changes in sentencing structures.     

The Age Structure-Crime Rate Relationship: Solving a Long-Standing Puzzle

Objectives

Develop the concept of differential institutional engagement and test its ability to explain discrepant findings regarding the relationship between the age structure and homicide rates across ecological studies of crime. We hypothesize that differential degrees of institutional engagement—youths with ties to mainstream social institutions such as school, work or the military on one end of the spectrum and youths without such bonds on the other end—account for the direction of the relationship between homicide rates and age structure (high crime prone ages, such as 15–29).

Methods

Cross sectional, Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses using robust standard errors are conducted using large samples of cities characterized by varying degrees of youths’ differential institutional engagement for the years 1980, 1990 and 2000. The concept is operationalized with the percent of the population enrolled in college and the percent of 16–19 year olds who are simultaneously not enrolled in school, not in the labor market (not in the labor force or unemployed), and not in the military.

Results

Consistent and invariant results emerged. Positive effects of age structure on homicide rates are found in cities that have high percentages of disengaged youth and negative effects are found among cities characterized with high percentages of youth participating in mainstream social institutions.

Conclusions

This conceptualization of differential institutional engagement explains the discrepant findings in prior studies, and the findings demonstrate the influence of these contextual effects and the nature of the age structure-crime relationship.     

Illegal logging: A market-based analysis of trafficking in illegal timber

Over the past several decades, illegally sourced timber has contributed to a growing roster of problems that affect both producing and consuming countries alike. Within the United States, the effect of timber trafficking on the national economy, and its potential effect on American foreign policy, has raised serious concern — so much so that in 2002, President George W. Bush announced his Initiative Against Illegal Logging in an attempt to discern and curtail the causes, methods, and parties involved in illegal activities. In 2005, the National Institute of Justice and Department of State, under the auspices of the President's Council on Environmental Quality, commissioned a literature review by Abt Associates to answer two principal questions:

1. Who commits the crimes of illegal timbering?
2. Hwo do they commit these crimes?

     

监狱传统政策目的之检讨——当代监禁思想的理论反思

监狱是人类社会文明的镜子,它既是文明产生的标志,也反映着社会最丑陋的现象。长期以来,监狱承载着一般预防和特殊预防的政策目的,但不断上升的犯罪率和监狱的人满为患促使社会开始反思：监狱能够在多大程度上落实刑事政策目的;监狱面临的现实困境;如何面对、认识和运用监禁刑等等。本文在对监狱所遭受质疑进行全面分析的基础上,对监狱的传统政策目的进行了反思。     

Toward the development of punishment equivalencies: Male and female inmates rate the severity of alternative sanctions compared to prison

According to a survey of 415 male and female inmates serving brief prison terms for nonviolent offenses, inmates perceive several alternative sanctions as significantly more punitive than imprisonment. Women rate alternatives as less punitive than do men, and are more amenable to participating in them. We find that prison and probation do not necessarily define the high and low extremes along a continuum of sanction severity, and we show for the first time how female inmates rank the punitiveness of criminal sanctions. Findings bear on the eventual development of meaningful punishment equivalencies and a valid continuum of criminal sanctions while raising doubts about the value of brief prison terms as a specific deterrent to crime. Our results also support consideration of gender differences in punishment and deterrence. We critique the problems associated with research on offenders' perceptions of the severity of sanctions, and discuss implications for deterrence theory and corrections policy.     

Taxation,money, and credit,in a liberalizing socialist economy

Understanding the system of financial control in the pre-existing régime of ‘classical’ socialism is a key to understanding what might go wrong in the transition. Accordingly, this paper proceeds in four steps by examining:

1. how domestic fiscal and monetary processes complement central planning in the classical socialist economy;
2. why this mechanism for securing domestic financial control under classical socialism tends to break down naturally into inflation when decentralization begins and central planning though direct materials balancing is weakened;
3. how, in a more deliberate transition, domestic tax and monetary arrangements might be better managed to keep the price level stable as prices of individual goods and services are freed; and
4. how, in moving toward free foreign trade, explicit policies governing tariffs and foreign exchange convertibility could best parallel and complement the evolving restraints on money and credit in domestic commerce.

In effect, moves to dismantle the apparatus of central planning, decontrol prices, privatize property, and so on need to be supported by a proper sequence of fiscal, monetary and foreign exchange measures-as analyzed more fully in the author's new bookThe Order of Economic Liberalization. In this short essay, a summary outline of such a financial order is provided.     

Exploring the Positive Punishment Effect Among Incarcerated Adult Offenders

The vast majority of offenders released from prison will re-offend, about two-thirds will be re-arrested with three years, most current prison inmates have prior prison experience, and many repeat offenders are devoted to what has been termed a criminal lifestyle. Findings from a survey of over 700 incarcerated adult offenders explore the effect of different measures of past punishment on inmates’ perceptions of the certainty and severity of future sanctions, and self-reported likelihood of re-offending after release. Results are mixed, with measures of current imprisonment being associated with a deterrent effect, while measures of past imprisonment (juvenile and adult) and experience with alternative sanctions being associated with a criminogenic effect. Recognizing that the data are not longitudinal and contain no measures of actual re-offending, the implied positive punishment effect is explained by applying social learning dynamics and insights from ethnographic studies. Specifically, a) non-social reinforcers-particularly affective costs and benefits experienced through offending, b) association with criminal reference groups in and out of prison, and c) a lack of legitimate, reintegrative opportunities upon reentry all serve to promote re-offending. Findings have implications for the study of offender decision-making processes, and speak to the efficacy of imprisonment as a deterrent to crime.     

Effectiveness of a prolonged incarceration and rehabilitation measure for high-frequency offenders

Objectives

To estimate the incapacitation effect and the impact on post-release recidivism of a measure combining prolonged incarceration and rehabilitation, the ISD measure for high frequency offenders (HFOs) was compared to the standard practice of short-term imprisonment.

Methods

We applied a quasi-experimental design with observational data to study the effects of ISD. The intervention group consisted of all HFOs released from ISD in the period 2004–2008. Two control groups were derived from the remaining population of HFOs who were released from a standard prison term. To form groups of controls, a combination of multiple imputation (MI) and propensity score matching (PSM) was used including a large number of covariates. In order to measure the incapacitation effect of ISD, the number of convictions and recorded offences in a criminal case of the controls were counted in the same period as their ISD counterfactuals were incarcerated. The impact on recidivism was measured by the prevalence and the frequency of reconvictions corrected for time at risk. Robustness of the results were checked by performing a combined PSM and difference-in-difference (DD) design.

Results

The estimate of the incapacitation effect was on average 5.7 criminal cases and 9.2 offences per ISD measure. On average 2.5 convictions and 4 recorded offences per year per HFO are prevented. The HFOs released from ISD showed 12 to 16 % lower recidivism rates than their control HFOs released from prison (Cohen’s h?=?0.3–0.4). The recidivists of the ISD group also showed a lower reconviction frequency than the control group recidivists (Cohen’s d?=?0.2).

Conclusions

The ISD measure seems to be effective in reducing recidivism and crime. The estimated incapacitation effect showed that a large portion of criminal cases and offences was prevented. DD analysis and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the PSM results. Due to the absence of actual treatment data, the effects found cannot be attributed separately to resocialization, imprisonment, or improvement of life circumstances.     

Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence

Objectives

A survey of empirical research concerning the determinants of an individual’s perceptions of the risk of formal sanctions as a consequence of criminal behavior. The specific questions considered are: (1) How accurate is people’s knowledge about criminal sanctions? (2) How do people acquire and modify their subjective probabilities of punishment risk? (3) How do individuals act on their risk perceptions in specific criminal contexts?

Methods

Three broad classes of extant studies are reviewed. The first is the relationship between objective sanctions, sanction enforcement, and risk perceptions—research that includes calibration studies and correlational studies. The second is the relationship between punishment experiences (personal and vicarious) and change in risk perceptions, in particular, research that relies on formal models of Bayesian learning. The third is the responsiveness of would-be offenders to immediate environmental cues—a varied empirical tradition that encompasses vignette research, offender interviews, process tracing, and laboratory studies.

Results

First, research concerning the accuracy of risk perceptions suggests that the average citizen does a reasonable job of knowing what criminal penalties are statutorily allowed, but does a quite poor job of estimating the probability and magnitude of the penalties. On the other hand, studies which inquire about more common offenses (alcohol and marijuana use) from more crime-prone populations (young people, offenders) reveal that perceptions are consistently better calibrated to actual punishments. Second, research on perceptual updating indicates that personal experiences and, to a lesser degree, vicarious experiences with crime and punishment are salient determinants of changes in risk perceptions. Specifically, individuals who commit crime and successfully avoid arrest tend to lower their subjective probability of apprehension. Third, research on the situational context of crime decision making reveals that risk perceptions are highly malleable to proximal influences which include, but are not limited to, objective sanction risk. Situational risk perceptions appear to be particularly strongly influenced by substance use, peer presence, and arousal level.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence tradition is theoretically rich, and has been renewed in the last decade by creative empirical tests from a variety of social scientific disciplines. Many knowledge gaps and limitations remain, and ensuing research should assign high priority to such considerations as sampling strategies and the measurement of risk perceptions.     

Trends in jail admissions rates

Historical data on national and state jail admissions trends have not been fully explored for theoretical and empirical insights into what causes jail populations to vary over time. This study draws on New York State historical jail records, research on national and state imprisonment trends, and “macro” perspectives on crime control and punishment. The analysis explores some of the possible causal relationships between variation in jail admissions and unemployment, major demographic trends, war, depression, jail capacity, and law enforcement and judicial practices. Theoretical, methodological, and operational implications of the research are discussed.     

Cumulative impact: Why prison sentences have increased*

Why has the probability of going to prison after a felony conviction increased since the early 1980s? Social scientists often try to answer this question through macro‐level research that is aimed at examining correlations between prison admissions and crime rates or sociopolitical characteristics of states. That type of macro‐level inquiry, however, does not allow for a close examination of how characteristics of offenders changed over time, and whether such changes are consequential for understanding trends in the use of imprisonment. In the current study, I take a different approach—one in which case‐level data are observed over a lengthy time span—to investigate why the likelihood of going to prison for a given crime persistently increased for several decades. The results of analyses of more than 350,000 felony cases sentenced in Minnesota during a 33‐year period show that the probability of a defendant receiving a prison sentence increased from 1981 to 2013, as would be expected. The primary reason for the rising probability of imprisonment was the significant increase in the average offender's criminal record, which more than doubled during the observation period.     

Specifying the Relationship Between Crime and Prisons

There is no scholarly consensus as to the proper functional form of the crime equation, particularly with regard to one critical, explanatory variable—prison population. The critical questions are whether crime and prison rates must be differenced, whether they are cointegrated, and whether they are simultaneously determined—whether crime and prison cause one another. To determine the proper specification, different researchers have applied unit-root, cointegration, and Granger tests to very similar data sets and obtained very different results. This has led to very different specifications and predictably different implications for public policy. These differences are more likely to be due to the methods used, rather than to real differences among the data sets. When the best available methods are used to identify the proper specification for a panel of U.S. states, results are fairly clear. Crime rates and prison populations are close to unit-root; crime and prison are not cointegrated; crime clearly affects subsequent prison populations. Thus the best specification of the crime equation must rely on differenced data and instrumental variables. Alternative specifications run a substantial risk of spurious results.