中日韩首脑会晤重启与三方合作的未来

<正>2015年11月初,中断了三年之久的中日韩首脑会谈在韩国首尔重启。尽管重启会晤实质性成果不多,但三国首脑能在"坡上熄火"后实现"重启运行"本身就颇具重要意义,何况三国首脑会晤后也发表了联合声明,并在加强安全、经济合作等方面达成一致,这将为中日韩合作带来新的机遇。当然中日韩自贸区谈判情况复杂,各国都在不同领域存在不同压力,加之三国间在历史认识问题上的种种障碍,东北亚区域合作仍难一帆     

民族主义与中日韩三国近代的历史观

本文通过对中日韩三国近代历史观的比较,指出民族主义既是三国近代历史观得以形成的共同思想基础,也是造成三国历史认识相互冲突的重要根源。东亚三国要在历史认识问题上达成共识,就需要超越民族史观的局限,从构建东亚未来国际秩序的高度,以更广阔的视野看待历史。     

中日韩经济合作的大方向

中日韩经济合作几十年来有了长足的发展,对于三国各自的经济社会发展和国际地位的提高,发挥了积极的推动作用。但其目前也遭遇到很大的瓶颈和局限,三国相互之间的贸易额大幅度下降,经济合作受到了领土争端、政治摩擦、安全事件的负面影响,难以有大的突破,从而也牵制了政治、安全关系的改善。中日韩三国从签署双边自由贸易协定入手,加快签署的速度,引导中日韩经济合作的大方向,不仅有利于促进三国各自经济的发展,同时也有利于促进三国政治、安全关系的改善,从而带动三国在东亚和世界范围内整体实力和地位的提升。     

中日韩三国经济合作与东亚区域性公共产品的供应——以全球金融危机为背景

亚洲金融危机过后,危机诱发机制下的东亚区域一体化合作进程一度进展缓慢,其中一个重要原因是处于核心地位的东盟无论从自身能力和意愿上,都无法为东亚区域提供有效的区域性公共产品,为区域合作的发展注入新的活力。在全球金融危机的冲击下,中日韩三国合作出现重大进展,三国之间紧密的经济合作可以发挥提供区域性公共产品的作用,成为区域合作的新动力。本文试图阐述金融危机下中日韩三国经济合作的新进展,以及中日韩三国在金融、贸易、能源、环保等经济领域的合作可以为东亚提供区域性公共产品的可能性及其重要性。     

东北亚区域合作的积极进展

2009年10月25日，第四届东亚峰会在泰国华欣举行，中国国务院总理温家宝提出了构建的东亚共同体原则。东亚共同体仍然坚持以东盟为主导的结构框架，追求各国利益的共赢。中日韩作为东亚地区的主要经济体，三国间的合作以及以三国合作为基础的东北亚合作为实现这一伟大构想提供了更多的现实可能性。     

朝鲜变局下的东亚三国会

为了对抗朝鲜,日韩势必强化与美国的军事联系,日本更有可能将朝鲜局势作为扩充军备的理由。这反过来又引起中国的疑虑。如何避免可能的恶性循环,很大程度上取决于中日韩三国能否理顺利益关系。     

引领合作：第四次中日韩领导人会议

处于21世纪第二个十年,面临中日邦交正常化40周年和中韩建交20周年的契机,在日本经历了“3·11”特大地震及核泄漏等次生灾害之后,备受关注的中日韩领导人会议于5月21日至22日在东京举行。以“守望相助,共谋发展”为基调的东京峰会是中日韩在合作大道上迈出的重要一步,彰显出不少“亮点”,体现了三国合作的持续深入与发展。同时,它对当前三国关系的改善与推动也有着积极意义。     

冷战后美日同盟的强化及其对东亚地区政治的影响

自20世纪90年代中期重新定义以来,美日同盟不断通过强化走向军事一体化和全球化.美国不是抑制而是推动日本重整军备,而日本也借助同盟追求更具进攻性的安全政策.美日同盟的强化并不意味着美日平等的"权利分享",而是体现出日本对美国战略的屈从.日本依赖美国的军事存在保证其安全并遏制中国,同时在经济上谋求同中国争夺地区合作的主导权.日本战略上的内在矛盾使其无法获得其他东亚国家的信任,也使东亚面临安全结构两极化的危险.构建和谐的东亚政治世界需要中美日建立稳定的三边合作关系,并最终将美日同盟纳入地区多边安全机制的框架中.     

印缅军事安全合作：现状、走势及影响

2013年3月6日,缅甸两艘战舰访问印度东部军港维沙卡帕特南,并与印度海军开展了首次联合军演,这也是继2013年1月21日印度国防部长安东尼首访缅甸之后,双方军事安全合作又一个重大突破,标志着印缅军事关系已由陆上边境安全合作延伸至海上合作。尽管这种军事合作关系还处于初级阶段,但已呈现出全面深化的趋势,对此我们应该有客观、清醒的认识。     

中国地缘安全环境中的“安全困境”问题解析

"安全困境"是国际安全领域中的一个基本概念,是构成国际紧张、对立乃至冲突的动因之一。在现实的国际社会中,"安全困境"现象很难完全消除。中国在崛起的进程中,其地缘安全环境中的"安全困境"问题尤为突出。美国把中国列为主要的地缘战略对手,认为中国的崛起挑战美国的霸权甚至威胁美国的安全;日本面对中国崛起,表现出严重的不适应,千方百计强化日美同盟,增强军事实力以牵制中国;中俄互有需求建立"战略协作伙伴关系",但中俄地理上的邻近使发展动力有限,也存在若隐若现的"安全困境"问题;印度作为拥有核武器的军事大国的崛起,肯定会分散中国的精力,使中国的地缘安全环境更趋复杂。     

美国国家安全战略的思想根源

战略观念与战略思维是影响国家战略行为的深层因素。美国在成长为超级大国的历史进程中,逐步形成了自身独特的战略安全观念与战略思维方式。综合考察战后以来尤其是冷战期间美国国家安全战略的缔造与实施过程,可以看出,美国战略安全观念与战略思维方式有几个近乎一以贯之的显著特点:立足"最坏假设",强调实力地位,保持技术优势,偏重军事手段,追求绝对安全,维持全球霸权,秉持道德普遍主义和意识形态优越论。其中,物质与精神并重,权力尤其武力手段与道德、意识形态旗帜并举,是最具美国特色的战略思想。这些思想特征构成美国安全战略的深层脉络,在战略实践中起起落落但从未销声匿迹。这些思想观念所塑造的全球战略既成就了美国的超强地位,也造成了美国霸权的困境,是理解当前和未来美国国家安全战略的重要历史与思想线索。     

军事对抗与两岸军事安全互信机制未来前景

本文在阐述军事对抗与军事安全互信机制辩证关系的基础上，提出一种有益于建立军事安全互信机制、创造台海永久和平的新型军事安全战略。这种新型军事安全战略的基本特征是：把维护两岸关系和平发展作为根本目标，既关注如何赢得战争，也关注如何通过战争赢得和平，还关注如何防止已经建立起来的和平转化为新的战争。以此为标准检视台海各方军事安全战略可以看到：中国大陆军事安全战略实现了战略与政略的高度结合，为军事服从政治、服务两岸关系和平发展提供了无限可能；台湾、美国坚持“只经不政”、“和而不解”，使其“和平愿望”难以贯彻到军事安全战略层面，是阻碍两岸军事安全互信机制建立的根本原因。     

The Dynamics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Understanding the Domestic Security Dilemma

This article argues that the concept of the “domestic security dilemma” can help us to better understand public opposition to government counterterrorism policies. It examines the concept of the “security dilemma” in international relations theory and argues that this concept can also be applied to the analysis of domestic security politics. The article explains that when the government takes actions intended to make people safer from terrorist threats, it often has the unintended consequence of heightening concerns about government oppression. Thus, counterterrorism represents a “domestic security dilemma”—a situation where security tradeoffs have consistently undermined anticipated security gains.     

Exploring Strategies and Implications of an Opportunistic Alliance: A Case Study of Pakistan and China

This article seeks to test the validity of ‘balance of threat’ theory as propounded by Stephen Walt that states react to imbalances of threat. It takes into account the factors enumerated by Walt to explore threat perceptions of Pakistan and the strategy they developed to cope with security threats. It attempts to take an overview of Pakistan's security dilemma its responses in twin time frames: the Cold War period (1980–1989) and the post-Cold War period (1990–2000) with relevance to the contemporary period. Pakistan's arms acquisition, upgradation in sophistication of arsenals, increase in fund allocation in defence have all been its tangible tactics to neutralize India's military superiority. Pakistan explored Pan-Islamism to bring the support of the Islamic states. Pakistan also resorted to an active alliance with China, to increase its competency. From a theoretical angle, this article adopts a realist viewpoint, focuses on security concerns of state actors.     

Policy Coalitions,Economic Reform and Military Power in Ecuador and Venezuela

Military coups and coup attempts, as well as the establishment, or continuation, of economic/social development roles for the military far outside traditional security missions have been a part of civil–military relations in Ecuador and Venezuela since 1990. The military's greater role in Ecuador and Venezuela has in part been a consequence of the failure of neoliberal and globalist policy coalitions to establish and maintain a hegemonic consensus over political power and national policy. This failure has undermined progress in orienting the military in a ‘democratic’ direction that prioritises traditional security roles under the ultimate command of civilian authorities. It has also allowed for competing models of civil–military relations to emerge that draw upon nationalist or socialist models of military power and democracy.     

Between willing and reluctant entrapment: CEE countries in NATO's non-European missions

The article focuses on Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries' experiences related to Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, three non-European theatres of Western military operations, in predominantly Muslim lands, in the decade between 2001 and 2011. CEE countries readily became involved in two of these foreign missions (Afghanistan and Iraq) because of their deep ties to Western politico-economic structures, without direct security interests compelling them to do so, but not without normative convictions regarding what were seen by them as virtues of the two missions. In Libya, however, they were reluctant to join the Western intervention. In light of this, the article is interested in examining how political elites within the region relate to the generally constrained security policy agency that they have. A key argument advanced is that such agency may be located in how external hegemony is mediated in elite discourses of threat and legitimacy construction. This as well as the three case studies outlined in the article show that the seeming changes in CEE countries' behaviour in fact boil down to a simple set of rules guiding their behaviour. Having identified this “algorithm” as an implicit pattern of CEE foreign policy behaviour, originating in the intra-alliance security dilemma within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the article formulates its conclusions about the alliance policy of these countries largely within a neorealist framework.     

Between emergency and routine – securitisation of military security in Iran and Indonesia

Abstract

The aim of this article is to explain the internal conditions of military security in a non-European context. It utilises securitisation as the theoretical perspective and investigates Iranian and Indonesian case studies to explore how the perception of internal threats and vulnerabilities determines the approaches to military security. It begins with a reiteration of securitisation theory assumptions, followed by clarifying the understanding of security in non-Western contexts. The case studies focus on the conditions which facilitate securitisation, including the nature of securitising actors, assumed concepts of security, and securitisation processes and their outcomes. The analysis indicates a necessity for several alterations in securitisation theory to realise its full potential. Civil–military relations in Asian states differ from those in the West, as both Iran and Indonesia show a high degree of military involvement in political affairs. Military security also becomes securitised as a result of internal political rivalries. The perception of threats is a tool in the struggle to extend the capabilities of security agencies or retain influences.     

Politics in the hot zone: Aids and national security in Africa

Traditional security studies and international relations theory do little to address the security issues associated with the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Because security studies and international relations have been preoccupied with conditions affecting the major powers, little of the long history of international relations and national security has practical application to Africa and the HIV/AIDS epidemic it is experiencing. From a theoretical perspective many fields of security studies and international relations do not adequately address critical dimensions in dealing with security. Dimensions of time, scope and depth are often overlooked. This point is important regarding the AIDS epidemic because time and extent often determine the security threat and whether it is a short-run threat (which is subject to greater political expediency) or a long-run threat (which is subject to less political expediency). In the short run the epidemic threatens the security of political institutions, the military and military operations. In the long run the security of populations and national economic performance are at risk.     

Privatising the war on drugs

A defining feature of the ‘9/11 wars’ has been the prominent role played by private military and security companies (pmsc). The growth of this market for military and security services has not gone unnoticed. Yet the role pmsc have played in supporting the US-led war on drugs has largely gone under the radar, both literally and figuratively. The aim of this article is to look at the activities of pmsc funded by the USA in Latin America, and to consider the specific consequences that arise from employing them in the field of counter-narcotics. It is argued that the use of pmsc further entrenches a costly and unsuccessful way of dealing with drugs. There is a need to move from a strict prohibitionist stance and consider alternatives to the war on drugs approach, but the use of pmsc creates another strong vested interest in maintaining an increasingly problematic and costly status quo.