Pivot but Hedge: A Strategy for Pivoting to Asia While Hedging in the Middle East

The U.S. government's new emphasis on the Asia-Pacific represents a bold strategic choice that could animate U.S. national security policy for years to come. Yet the United States must balance its rightful new focus on the Asia-Pacific with the volatility that still exists in other areas of the world. The United States should pivot to the Asia-Pacific—but to protect its vital interests, it should also hedge against threats elsewhere, particularly in the greater Middle East. To implement a “Pivot but Hedge” strategy, the U.S. government should do three things. First, it should exercise caution when cutting the defense budget. Second, it should give the military services greater leadership roles in specific regions: naval and air forces should lead in the Asia-Pacific, while ground forces should lead in the greater Middle East. Third, it should maintain expansible, capable, and well-trained ground forces as a hedge against global uncertainty.     

试论美国对华的对冲战略

美国对华实施两面下注的对冲战略,一方面深化融合政策,承认中国已经成为国际体系的正式成员,进而促使中国成为负责任的利益相关者,与美国一起维护国际体系;另一方面则采取新的大国结盟战略,强化亚洲安全合作,进行一系列军事调整,对中国进行现实型的军事威慑与围堵.美国力图以此对华促变,化解中国崛起对美国可能产生的负面影响.     

国际体系结构与国家行为:一个博弈理论模型

国际体系结构特征对国家间利益分配和国家行为存在重要影响。在单极世界中,参与国的参与剩余将作为垄断租金转移给国家极;两极体系将导致利益反向再分配,即国家极的主导者剩余将作为租金转移给其他参与国家;意识形态冲突、文明冲突和经济地理邻近构成了国际政治交易成本的主要来源,它们决定了国家间政治结盟的基本分布特征。"中心—边缘"命题中存在的边缘地区发展陷阱以及战后日本发展等理论和现实问题,都可以用不同国际体系结构下的国家间博弈进行解释。     

国家大战略:概念与原则

本文主要对大战略的概念进行了廓清。认为大战略不同于国家战略和国家安全战略。战略是讲求原则的,认为大战略的原则主要有四条。指出大战略重视间接战略,实施大战略首选的是间接战略。     

国家大战略:目标与途径

国家大战略的构成要素主要有战略目标、战略实力和战略途径。关于战略实力,中国学术界论述较多,而对于战略目标和战略途径涉及较少。本文首先对战略目的、战略目标和战略任务三个概念进行了区分。在此基础上,作者对大战略的目标进行了确定,认为应该是防止外部威胁、控制外部威胁和化解外部威胁,并提出了实现战略目标的几种途径。     

包容性国际金融体系与中国策略选择——国际货币权力结构视角

在中国新一届政府进行外交大战略布局之时,习近平总书记在二十国集团领导人第九次峰会上强调建设包容性国际金融体系,这对迟滞的国际货币体系改革有着重大的历史意义。建设公平公正、包容有序的国际金融体系需要对货币权力、国家间货币关系的演变规律有着深刻的认识。通过国际货币权力的结构分析框架,深入分析中国金融外交战略与人民币国际化战略的演变,为中国将国家实力转化成货币权力及建设包容性国际金融体系带来有益的启示。     

Trying to Have Your Cake and Eating It: How and Why the State System Has Created Offshore

From modest beginnings in the wholesale financial market specializing in government debt, offshore has expanded rapidly, penetrating and then dominating an ever growing portion of international economic life. This article reflects on the relationship between offshore and the concept of state sovereignty. My argument is that far from escaping the state, offshore is intimately connected with the state system. The concepts of sovereignty and national self-determination played simultaneously an enabling and constraining role in the development of offshore. Furthermore, having "created" offshore, sovereignty and self-determination are themselves constrained and (re-)enabled in turn. Offshore therefore is not a diminution of state sovereignty but a legally defined realm marking differential levels of intensity by which states propose to apply their regulation. Such a bifurcation of juridical space represents a process by which the state is reimagining its relationship to its territory.     

体系·社会·国家——美国对外经济政策的三种研究路径

研究美国对外经济政策有三种路径,分别是以体系为中心,以社会为中心和以国家为中心的研究路径.以体系为中心的研究路径强调国际政治经济体系的结构性特征对美国对外经济行为的影响和制约;以社会为中心的研究路径则将关注的焦点放在美国国内社会不同的利益集团在游说和组织动员方面的力量对比;而以国家为中心的研究路径认为美国对外经济行为是国家本身的官僚政治运作的结果.三种不同的研究路径为理解美国对外经济政策提供了不同的视角,但它们彼此互不排斥,在分析美国对外经济政策的不同时间段,不同问题领域时,具有各自程度不同的解释力.     

Global Governance Structure for Infectious Disease: An Enforceable Strategy

Emerging trends suggest a more inclusive and collaborative approach to addressing international infectious disease issues, but without an overarching governance structure and judicial forum in place, outcomes will remain suboptimal. This essay outlines and analyzes several initiatives currently underway and proposes a new comprehensive global governance structure for infectious disease. This proposed structure has built-in incentives for states—from both the developed and developing world—to meet their regulatory obligations and integrates the myriad non-state actors operating in this space, including NGOs and the private sector. It also incorporates an adjudicative body that is able to enforce compliance and resolve issues of contention. Lastly, this essay identifies innovative funding mechanisms and contemplates the venue best suited to host and administer this new global governance structure for infectious disease with a focus on UN-based models.

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“梅普组合”及普京治国方略的连续性

俄罗斯新当选总统梅德韦杰夫于2008年5月7日宣誓就职。他与前任总统普京关系密切，是普京把他扶上了总统宝座。梅德韦杰夫提名普京为总理并获得通过，“梅普组合”正式成立。梅德韦杰夫的治国理念与普京具有一致性。中俄两国关系是高度信赖的关系，是保障世界稳定的重要因素。中俄两国关系的发展不需要过渡期，可以保持持续稳定的发展。     

南宁市产业结构的演变及其优化战略研究

改革开放以来,随着经济的快速发展,南宁市产业结构得以明显优化,但是,仍存在着较多突出问题,主要表现为：传统农业比重过大,工业比重偏低,以及第三产业增长质量不高。基于此,本文分析了南宁市产业结构的演变趋势及其特征,归结了当前南宁市产业结构存在的主要问题及其成因,并提出了优化南宁市产业结构的相应战略。     

东盟国家语言状况及广西语言人才培养策略

2001年11月,在文莱召开的第五次中国—东盟领导人会议上,中国与东盟领导人共同决定在未来10年内建立中国—东盟自由贸易区。2003年10月8日,中国国务院总理温家宝在印尼巴厘岛召开的第七次中国与东盟领导人会议上提出“为促进双方商界合作,中方建议从2004年起每年在广西南宁举办中国─东盟博览会”。随着中国与东盟经贸关系的加强和双方人民的往来日益频繁,语言的交流与沟通将会愈发凸显其重要性,关注东盟国家的语言状况有助于更深入和更全面地了解东盟各国的政治、经济、历史和文化状况,促进双方经贸合作和友好关系的发展。一、东盟国家语言…     

International System and China’s Asia-Pacific Strategy

What impact does a shift in the global distribution of power have on the international order? According to the views of traditional realists,power transitions in the international order are usually accompanied by major wars,the best example being the two world wars of the twentieth century.China’s peaceful rise is conducive to the peace and stability of Asia and Pacific regions.The steady rise of China’s position and its role in dealing with international and regional problems have proved China’s success in...     

中国对非洲广播宣传的理念与策略

进入21世纪以来,各国对非洲国际广播的特点发生了很大变化.为应对这种变化带来的挑战,中国对非洲广播通过与非洲有关国家传媒机构的合作,加快节目本土化的步伐,增加了落地频率,取得了长足进步.中国国际广播电台的对非洲广播取得了良好效果,得到了非洲有关国家政界人士的高度评价,同时也收到了各界受众的良好反馈.在新形势下,中国对非洲国际广播仍需要不断更新传播理念,适时制定和实施新的广播战略与策略,为促进中国与非洲政治、经济、文化等方面的交流发挥更大作用.     

多重国际体系的视野与战略

本文认为,在全球性国际体系存在的同时,还有多个其他国际体系存在.我们不能因为来自某个国际体系的压力和批评就导致自己产生沮丧情绪和挫折感.改革开放三十年的重要经验之一就是我们要始终不渝地坚持改革和开放.在制订对外战略时,要考虑到国际体系多重性和复杂性这一客观事实,确立多重国际体系的视野与战略.     

Securing the State: From Zionist Ideology to Israeli Statehood

Between early 1947 and May 1948, the Zionist movement went from being a non-state actor representing the minority population within the territory of the British Mandate of Palestine to establishing the State of Israel, which would be recognised almost instantaneously by the world's two Superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. Such a result, however, was never a given. What processes allowed a non-state actor, the Zionist movement, to secure international acceptance for the creation of a Jewish state in highly ambiguous circumstances? This analysis explores the dual-track adopted by the Zionist movement, whereby it worked to create facts on the ground within Palestine whilst securing support for its state-building project at the international level. By establishing state-like institutions in Palestine whilst building international support, the Jewish Agency was able to secure for itself a unique place from which to declare statehood.     

State Building for Future Wars: Neoclassical Realism and the Resource-Extractive State

Neorealist theory holds that the international system compels states to adopt similar adaptive strategies—namely, balancing and emulation—or risk elimination as independent entities. Yet states do not always emulate the successful practices of the system's leading states in a timely and uniform fashion. Explaining this requires a theory that integrates systemic-level and unit-level variables: a “resource-extraction” model of the state in neoclassical realism. External vulnerability provides incentives for states to emulate the practices of the system's leading states or to counter such practices through innovation. Neoclassical realism, however, suggests that state power—the relative ability of the state to extract and mobilize resources from domestic society—shapes the types of internal balancing strategies that countries are likely to pursue. State power, in turn, is a function of the institutions of the state, as well as of nationalism and ideology. The experiences of six rising or declining great powers over the past three hundred years—China, France, Great Britain, Japan, Prussia (later Germany), and the United States—illustrate the plausibility of these hypotheses.     

Beyond the Target State: Foreign Military Intervention and Neighboring State Stability

Despite the abundance of research on the consequences of foreign military intervention for target countries, scant research has been devoted to the possible regional externalities of intervention. This article examines whether large-scale armed operations affect the likelihood of civil conflict onset in countries neighboring the target of intervention. We posit that interventions against the target regime reduce the government's ability to maintain full control over the entire national territory by diminishing its coercive and administrative capacity. This might, in turn, result in safe haven possibilities for neighboring rival groups in the target and facilitate the transnational spread of arms and other illicit activities that increase the risk of civil conflict onset in the contiguous countries. Armed interventions supportive or neutral toward the target state, on the other hand, bolster the government's coercive capacity and mitigate ongoing crises in the target. Such armed intrusions might therefore undermine the likelihood of internal armed conflict in neighboring countries triggered by the factors associated with “bad neighborhoods”: safe haven possibilities, transnational spread of arms, and refugee flows. To substantiate these claims, we use time-series, cross-national data for the 1951–2004 period. Results indicate that hostile interventions increase the probability of civil conflict onset in connected countries while supportive interventions have a regional pacifying effect, reducing the likelihood of domestic unrest in countries neighboring the target state. Neutral interventions, on the other hand, are unlikely to have any discernible effect on regional stability. Further, the primary motive of intervention, whether for humanitarian or other purposes, has no statistically significant impact on the stability of neighboring countries.     

美国经济的国家因素:经济制度与主要国内经济政策

国家政府在美国经济中扮演了什么角色?文章主要从美国市场经济的制度因素和经济发展的政策因素着眼,对20世纪以来美国经济模式、主要经济政策作粗略的历史考察和现实分析,力图阐释美国市场经济中的国家政府作用的重要性。