希腊主权债务危机的由来及其对中国的影响

2010年上半年,一场源自希腊的主权债务危机引发了欧元区的动荡,对欧盟的经济治理产生了深远的影响。本文简要分析了希腊债务危机的爆发和演变过程,进而探讨了希腊债务危机的根源。在此基础上,文章分析了欧盟应对危机的举措以及对中国经济可能带来的影响和冲击。     

欧债危机:治理困境和应对举措

欧洲主权债务危机揭示了欧元区重债国家公共财政的不可持续,同时也将欧元区治理结构的弊端暴露无遗。欧盟受其利益多元和政治体制复杂性以及法律框架的制约,难以独立做出迅速和有效的危机应对举措。因此,债务危机的解决方式不可能立竿见影,这一软肋充分暴露在市场面前,使危机短期内可能不断反复。欧盟国家要走出债务危机,短期内需建立防火墙,控制危机大蔓延,同时大力削减公共财政赤字,尽快恢复市场信心;中期则需改进欧元区的治理结构,加强财政协调和监督;若要最终走出危机,则需提高经济竞争力,促进经济增长,促使公共财政走入良性循环。     

欧元区主权债务危机:一个理论分析框架

本文旨在建立一个欧元区成员国政府债务可持续均衡模型,根据该模型推导出四个基本命题来阐述欧元区主权债务危机爆发的内在机制。通过分析,本文认为,如果欧元区成员国债券利率大于实际经济增长率,该国债务占国内生产总值的比率将会呈现持续增长趋势;政府在资本市场的融资成本由原有债务水平和政府信誉高低决定;加入单一货币区后一国政府可维持的均衡债务水平下降;如果政府实际债务水平超过最大可维持债务水平,债务水平将呈现持续增长趋势。     

“危机与变革中的欧洲与世界”学术研讨会综述

自2010年希腊主权债务危机爆发以来,危机呈现出不断蔓延之势,给欧洲的政治与经济带来巨大变数,欧洲既面临诸多挑战,也存在变革机遇。在此背景下,2011年9月28日至30日,中国人民大学欧洲问题研究中心举办了"危机与变革中的欧洲与世界"学术研讨会。中国人民大学副校长、欧洲问题研究中心主任杨慧林教授出席了开幕式,并发表讲话,来自国内外近60位专家     

欧洲债务危机及其救赎之道

最近，欧洲主权债务危机继续蔓延，意大利政府债券的发行利率已经超过7％——如果这样的情况持续，意大利将无法负担借新债还旧债的高成本，不能继续从市场上筹资来应对将于2012年集中到来的3000亿欧元的还本付息。如此，它就不得不步希腊的后尘向IMF和欧盟求助。而欧盟对于如何解救欠了1．84万亿欧元巨额债务的意大利，并没有做好...     

欧债危机的战略影响

欧债危机是从一些欧元区国家主权债务危机中折射的欧盟一体化危机,由于发生在欧洲衰落的时代背景下,其溢出效应被放大.从本质上说,欧债危机的爆发是欧洲一些国家产业空心化和国际比较优势下降造成的,是其生产方式无法维继民众生活方式表现出来的政治危机,反映出欧洲地区发展不平衡的恶果,而欧元区及欧盟机制又妨碍了问题的解决.从现实表现看,欧债危机不仅对欧元区经济、欧洲一体化进程、世界格局走向均产生不同程度的冲击,而且加大了德国和欧元区其他成员的矛盾、欧元区与非欧元区国家的矛盾、美国和欧盟的矛盾、欧元区与世界经济的矛盾,使欧盟未来数年内不得不忙于内部事务而非热衷于全球治理,倾向于走务实的地缘经济而非价值观路线,严重削弱了欧盟的硬、软实力.然而,欧盟正借助危机加速推进一体化,其成效将舒缓、但并不能化解欧盟的战略颓势,由此增添了世界多极化进程的复杂性和曲折性.     

处在转折关头的欧洲和世界经济

2011年末欧洲主权债务危机和银行危机均严重恶化。欧元的存在受到双重威胁:一是欧洲金融系统逐渐分化;二是南欧经济衰退可能拖垮整个欧洲货币联盟。本文将阐述对岌岌可危的欧元采取果断行动的紧迫性,并对美国受到波及、欧元区衰退可能引发的灾难性后果进行分析。笔者试图从一个更宽泛的视角考察2012年6月欧盟峰会采取的金融救助决定。本文认为,欧元区应从如下三方面着手进行综合的改革:使公共债务的利率上限与合理的财政调整相匹配、设计可担保的欧元债券计划,以及成立集中管理和严格规制的银行业联盟。     

欧盟在成员国主权债务危机救援行动中的给力

今年是欧盟落实《里斯本条约》的第一年，这本应是推动欧洲一体化进程、提振欧盟整体经济信心的大好时机．但由于成员国希腊、爱尔兰的主权债务危机以及西班牙、葡萄牙等国目前的经济景况，今年成了欧盟援招频出的拯救危机年。     

欧洲主权债务危机对华侨华人经济的影响及其对策研究

欧洲经济的欠"生产性"根源引发了主权债务危机,作为其一部分的欧洲华侨华人经济在市场、资金、政策、人才等方面也深受影响。欧洲华侨华人应该进一步把握形势,调整战略,适应居住国实情,学法守法用法,培育人才,加强社会融入,以推动欧洲华侨华人经济的更大发展。     

债务危机演化对欧洲意味着什么

2012年伊始，国际最具权威的三大信用评级机构标准普尔、惠誉和穆迪分别陆续下调了欧元区多国的信用评级，由此进一步加深了各界对欧债危机前景的担忧。当前欧债危机的不断演化，不仅威胁到现实中欧元区和欧元货币的存亡，而且关系到欧洲未来的兴衰。     

“欧元乐园”的迷失与重建——兼论对东亚区域货币合作的启示

希腊主权债务危机引发的欧元危机是对欧洲区域经济与货币一体化的一次重大考验,深刻反映了欧洲经货联盟成立以来所出现的两大问题:成员国之间经济的不平衡发展以及联盟合作机制的缺陷。欧元危机给东亚区域货币与金融合作的启示是,在以欧盟货币合作为样板的同时,应着重加强区域内信息共享与政策合作,以清迈倡议(CMI)和清迈倡议多边机制(CMIM)为基础加快东亚货币合作机制建设,完善区域监管体系;同时加强区域内各国汇率合作和资本账户自由化,稳步推进区域金融市场一体化进程,逐步缩小各国之间汇率波动的幅度,以此推进东亚区域经济合作向纵深发展。     

“欧洲学期”机制探析

"欧洲学期"机制是欧盟为应对和克服主权债务危机而推出的一项深化和扩大政策协调、完善其经济治理的重大改革举措。本文通过对"欧洲学期"机制产生的背景、主要内容与创新、其初期效果以及对欧洲一体化进程的影响的分析,认为该机制虽然在政策有效性和合法性上存在一些不足之处,但在制度设计上具有明显的创新和突破,标志着欧盟财政协调制度向前迈进了实质性的重要一步。     

The Financialisation of Sovereign Debt: An Institutional Analysis of the Reforms in German Public Debt Management

This study explores the financialisation of sovereign debt through an in-depth study of institutional change in German debt management. Between 1998 and 2006, the Ministry of Finance fundamentally altered the management of federal public debt by not only disempowering the Bundesbank and Federal Debt Administration as debt managers and outsourcing this task to a new agency, the Federal Finance Agency; moreover, the conservative debt strategy was replaced by strict market orientation. Conceptualising this change as institutional innovation, the paper argues that the Ministry of Finance played a leading role in the reform process. It shows that the arrival of the Euro brought with it a power struggle between the Ministry and the Bundesbank. The evidence fits better the concept of institutional innovation as a result of entrepreneurship than approaches which conceptualise institutional innovations as consequences of profit maximisation or layering and displacement.     

In the Eye of the Storm: The Italian Economy and the Eurozone Crisis

Abstract

The eurozone crisis had a more significant and longer-lasting impact on Italy than on virtually any other member state, with the effects still visible a decade after. The extent of the shock was surprising in view of progress Italy had apparently made in the 1990s in terms of enhancing its capacity to meet the demands of European Monetary Union. The explanation for this traumatic economic experience lies in Italy’s deep, long-term, structural tensions which were placed under severe pressure during the 1990s and which were cracked open by the 2011 sovereign debt crisis. These have had long-standing economic effects as well as political ramifications in terms of a significant change in the Italy–EU relationship.     

2010年中欧关系的回顾与展望

2010年,由于《里斯本条约》的生效、《欧盟2020》战略的问世,尤其是主权债务危机的困扰,欧盟面临着内部调整和外部扩展的多重挑战。在此压力下,欧盟将对外战略东移,开始重点经营与中国的关系。本文回顾了2010年中欧关系的发展,认为中欧双方在经贸关系、科技合作、政党外交、社会合作、文化交流等领域取得了进展,在其他领域里的合作机制不断推进。然而,由于缺乏相互的深层了解,中欧之间存在着严重的认知鸿沟,将对中欧关系的未来发展产生不利影响。     

The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Ideological Space in Portugal and Greece: A Comparison of Elites and Voters

This work addresses the dimensions and content of ideological space in Portugal and Greece after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis and the imposition of austerity policies in the two countries. By examining both elite interviews and public opinion data, the article principally attempts to determine whether the economic crisis has created a new division in ideological space by cross-cutting or completely replacing older ones. In addition, we attempt to gauge the position of crisis-related issues relative to issue divides on European integration and globalisation which, up to now, have been dormant in Southern European countries.     

Wie wird bewertbar, ob ein Staat zu viele Schulden hat? Finanzexperten und ihr Bewertungswissen in der griechischen Schuldenkrise

This paper develops a sociology of knowledge of sovereign debt crises by studying expert cultures in the financial services industry. It is argued that the concept of calculative framing can capture the epistemic practices of analysts as well as the way their products are used by market participants and other stakeholders. The notion of calculative framing is empirically and conceptually extended: The article shows how sovereign debt is framed as a financial value and how calculative framing evolves in situations of crises. The central case is the evaluation of Greece government debt by analysts of international banks in the period from early 2010 until mid 2011. This case shows how crises frames are developed and how they consolidate the evaluation of sovereign default. In this crisis period, analysts inscribe their evaluations into contexts of official crisis management.     

The Inextricable Link Between Sovereign Debt and Pensions in Argentina, 1993–2010

Established with the reform of 1993, Argentina's private pension funds became crucial sources of credit for the national government. They purchased large amounts of sovereign bonds defaulted on in 2001 and hence were key to the success of the debt restructuring of 2005. The private pillar was always vulnerable to political maneuvering; the nationalization of private pension funds in 2008 was only the last stage in an iterated process of state intervention, a function of public debt dynamics. This article argues that the financial pressures associated with Argentina's sovereign debt burden systematically shortened the temporality of pension policy decisions, taking those away from long‐term concerns about the stability of the social security system and toward the immediacy of debt‐financing imperatives. Therefore, the politics of pension reform reversal in Argentina were determined by the increasingly strong and inextricable link between debt and pensions.