The problem with the “portfolio approach” in American energy policy

One predominant theme in American energy and electricity policy is the idea of a “portfolio approach,” or that society must embrace an assortment of different energy technologies simultaneously. This article argues that such a strategy, in practice, is (a) biased, since fossil fuel and nuclear technologies have been heavily favored; (b) opaque, obscuring the different full social costs of energy systems; (c) inequitable, promoting technologies that contribute to climate change; and (d) unsophisticated, ignoring important qualitative differences among technologies. The article estimates the full social costs of electricity generation, concluding that the five cheapest forms of electricity generation are all renewable resources; that intermittency is not a reason to reject renewable energy technologies; that nuclear power has significant technical and environmental problems, especially from a greenhouse gas emissions and climate change perspective; and that “clean coal” and carbon capture and sequestration technologies face significant challenges to deployment.     

Balancing alternatives and avoiding false dichotomies to make informed U.S. electricity policy

Recent events highlight the importance of electric energy policy and how to meet growing electricity demand. Price spikes, global climate change and other environmental concerns, national security threats, an aging infrastructure, and a restructured industry with mixed results are challenges that policy makers and the industry must address. Given the capital-intensive nature of the industry, investment decisions will determine in large part how successfully these challenges are met. One paper that favors energy efficiency, renewable energy, and small-scale distributed generation is examined in detail to test the proposition that fossil fuel and nuclear power should be part of the mix of new investments. To determine the future electricity resource mix requires having a complete and informed picture of the relative costs and benefits of various technologies. The levels of energy efficiency, renewable resources, and distributed generation can and should be increased, but coal and nuclear generation investments are also likely to be needed.

State Renewable Energy Governance: Policy Instruments,Markets, or Citizens

Since the 1990s, state governments in the United States have diversified policy instruments to encourage the electric power industry to deploy renewable sources for electricity generation. This study identifies the trends and variations in renewable energy (RE) policy governance among states and examines the effectiveness of policy instruments in the deployment of RE sources for electricity production. This study explores 18 state legislative, RE‐related regulations, programs, or financial incentives existing between 2001 and 2010 in 48 states in the United States. Renewable energy policies were classified into three types of policy approaches: command‐and‐control, market‐based, and information instruments. Results suggest that authoritative approaches are more likely to be effective in the governmental intervention toward a pre‐existing market, and information instruments and citizen participation became important in the power industry in the 2000s. In addition, it gives us some evidence that federal assistance under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 influenced the overall growth of the renewable electricity industry, in addition to state government–led policy designs.     

Compensation rules for climate policy in the electricity sector

Most previous cap and trade programs have distributed emission allowances for free to incumbent producers. However, in the electricity sector the value of CO₂ allowances may be far in excess of costs to industry and giving them away to firms diverts allowance value from other purposes. Using a detailed simulation model, this paper shows that compensation to firms losing asset value under a climate cap and trade policy can be achieved for a small fraction of total allowance value, if targeted carefully. However, the economic efficiency cost of providing incremental compensation to reach the fully compensated level is many multiples of that incremental compensation. These considerations might move policymakers away from free allocation of CO₂ emission allowances in the electricity sector. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The impact of the U.S. war on terrorism upon U.S.-China relations

Using a framework of geopolitical analysis. Oliver Lee argues that the fundamental geopolitical relationships between the United States and China, namely the relationship between the world’s strongest naval and air power and the world’s strongest land power, would not be upset even after the American military presence in central Asia since September 11, 2001. The relationship would remain essentially unaltered because — American initiation of the use of nuclear weapons against China being ruled out for fear of Chinese retaliation — China would be able to withstand any U.S. military offensive conducted with conventional land, sea, and air forces, regardless of whether the U.S. possesses permanent air bases in Central Asia or not, and regardless of how many troops it may station on them. His teaching and research interests include domestic and foreign policies of China and power in America and U.S. foreign policy.     

Leaders’ perspectives in the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative

The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative (Y2Y) was created in 1993 to advance conservation in a 1.2 million km² portion of the North American Rocky Mountains. We assembled 21 people with influence over Y2Y in a workshop to elucidate perspectives on challenges and solutions for this organization at a key point in its evolution, and used Q method to define four perspectives on challenges and three on solutions. Participants were differentiated by four models for effecting change—vision-based advocacy, practice-based learning, political engagement, and scientific management—with emphasis on the first three. Those with authority in Y2Y aligned with vision-based advocacy and expressed ambivalence about practice-based adaptive learning and rigorous appraisals of existing strategies. Workshop results were consistent with an apparent trend toward organizational maturation focused on stabilizing revenues, developing formal organizational arrangements, and focusing strategies. Consolidation of power in Y2Y around a long-standing formula does not bode well for the effectiveness of Y2Y. We recommend that leaders in Y2Y and similar organizations focused on large-scale conservation to create and maintain an open system—philosophically and operationally—that capitalizes on the diverse perspectives and skills of individuals who are attracted to such efforts. We also recommend that the Y2Y initiative be followed closely to harvest additional lessons for potential application to large-scale conservation efforts elsewhere.     

Pedagogues,Periodicals, and Paranoia

Over the past year, several published volumes have argued that American politics is careening out of control, toward a slippery slope of twenty-first century theocracy. Most of these books present tendentious interpretations of contemporary politics as matter-of-fact analysis. The reader is assumed to hold the same interpretive bias and warned of the dangers of a new and powerful American “fundamentalism.” The current article explores a historical parallel to today’s trend. Nearly a century ago, the Progressive Education movement sought to undermine the pedagogical dominance of traditional, literature-based education, preferring a more socially-conscious curriculum. The striking similarities between John Dewey’s anti-traditional approach and the present-day anti-theocracy faction are multitude—and worth our consideration. The seeds of Progressive Education are now producing weeds of anti-religious sentiment across America’s political landscape—a cultural phenomena that is constricting the growth of a much needed civil discourse.

Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging disruptive technologies

The past decade has witnessed the emergence of many technologies that have the potential to fundamentally alter our economic, social, and indeed personal lives. The problems they pose are in many ways unprecedented, posing serious challenges for policymakers. How should governments respond to the challenges given that the technologies are still evolving with unclear trajectories? Are there general principles that can be developed to design governance arrangements for these technologies? These are questions confronting policymakers around the world and it is the objective of this special issue to offer insights into answering them both in general and with respect to specific emerging disruptive technologies. Our objectives are to help better understand the regulatory challenges posed by disruptive technologies and to develop generalizable propositions for governments' responses to them.     

The energy factor in China’s foreign policy

This paper argues that China’s foreign policy behavior has been influenced by growing energy dependence. As a major importer, China can pursue energy security through strategies that result in conflict; alternatively, energy vulnerability might lead it toward cooperation with rival oil consuming nations through participation in multilateral organizations and other forums. After outlining the argument for the strategic nature of energy, China’s increasing energy dependence is assessed, as are Beijing’s efforts to shift China’s energy balance. China’s energy diplomacy with the Middle East, Russia and Central Asia, the Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America are examined, and Beijing’s efforts toward greater energy security through multilateral organizations are discussed. The evidence supports the liberal hypothesis that economic interdependence promotes international cooperation. Energy demands have accelerated China’s rise to global prominence, and appear to moderate conflictual aspects of Chinese foreign policy. He is co-editor of and contributor toRussia’s Far East: A Region at Risk (University of Washington Press, 2002), and author ofThe History of Russia (Greenwood, 1999),Foreign Policy and East Asia (Cambridge University Press, 1993), andEnvironmental Policy in the USSR (University of Massachusetts Press, 1987). His articles have appeared inProblems of Post-Communism, Asian Survey, Pacific Affairs, Comparative Politics, Political Science Quarterly, British Journal of Political Science, and many other journals and edited books. The author would like to thank Igor Danchenko for his able research assistance on this project.     

The Decline of Bigotry in America

Though prejudice and discrimination exist in America, it has been steadily declining and measurably so. From our very beginnings, there has been a diversity, accretion, succession, and simultaneity of racial, religious, ethnic, and gender victims and victimizers. Fortunately, there has also been a process of meliorism, epitomized by the presidential election of a black American of mixed racial parents—Barack Hussein Obama. Regardless of their group identity, today’s generation of Americans has less victims or victimizers and has more social, political, and economic opportunities than their parents. grandparents, and predecessors had.     

Implementing transition management as policy reforms: a case study of the Dutch energy sector

Proposals to alter large-scale socio-technical systems through government actions in order to promote goals such as sustainability are highly uncertain policy projects. What is being proposed is the replacement of specific elements of existing policy ‘mixes’—the goals and means—by others, in the expectation of avoiding counterproductive or sub-optimal policy outcomes. While laudable, such efforts are fraught with risks; including the possibility of the creation of sub-optimal policy mixes or of failed reform efforts with resulting poor outcomes. This article develops a model and typology of policy regime change processes and outcomes following Thelen and others in arguing that complex policy mixes typically emerge through one or more of four processes, ‘drift’, ‘conversion’, ‘layering’ and ‘replacement’, and that the expected outcomes of these different processes in terms of their ability to meet initial expectations are linked to the manner in which policy goals and means are (or are not) combined in a consistent, coherent and congruent fashion. This propensity is illustrated through examination of the case of energy transition management as practiced in the Netherlands.     

A Robust Transformation Procedure for Interpreting Political Text

Georg Vanberg Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3265 e-mail: gvanberg{at}unc.edu (corresponding author) In a recent article in the American Political Science Review,Laver, Benoit, and Garry (2003, "Extracting policy positionsfrom political texts using words as data," 97:311–331)propose a new method for conducting content analysis. TheirWordscores approach, by automating text-coding procedures, representsan advance in content analysis that will potentially have alarge long-term impact on research across the discipline. Toallow substantive interpretation, the scores produced by theWordscores procedure require transformation. In this note, weaddress several shortcomings in the transformation procedureintroduced in the original program. We demonstrate that theoriginal transformation distorts the metric on which contentscores are placed—hindering the ability of scholars tomake meaningful comparisons across texts—and that it isvery sensitive to the texts that are scored—opening upthe possibility that researchers may generate, inadvertentlyor not, results that depend on the texts they choose to includein their analyses. We propose a transformation procedure thatsolves these problems. Authors' note: We would like to thank Ken Benoit, Michael Laver,three anonymous referees, and the editor for comments on earlierversions of this article.     

Least-Cost Planning and Electricity Industry Reform in Australia

Least-Cost Planning played a key role in the development of the energy efficiency and renewable energy industries in the USA. It has not been widely used elsewhere, largely due to differences in other nations' regulatory environments and the emergence of competitive markets as the dominant paradigm for electricity planning. Least-Cost Planning, however, may offer valuable insights for creating regulatory frameworks for competitive electricity markets. This paper examines some lessons which may be extracted from an analysis of the Least-Cost Planning experience in the USA and suggests how these lessons might prove beneficial in guiding Australia's electricity industry reform. This analysis demonstrates how market-based reforms may be flawed if they ignore the history of previous reform processes.     

Using Carrots and Sticks to Improve American Colleges

An unintended consequence of making access to college an entitlement readily available to all high school graduates is that serious study in high school has become optional—even for those intending to apply for college admission. Without an incentive to study diligently, many students are disengaged in high school and, as a result, underprepared for college. Some freshmen arrive at college thinking that having fun is the main reason they are at college and that the pursuit of knowledge should be available for when they have nothing better to do. Before World War II academically excellent students from families unable to finance college for them could apply for competitive scholarships. Scholarships mutated into “financial aid” when the GI Bill of Rights financed college for discharged veterans of World War II. Pell grants should continue to be available to youngsters who want to go to college even if they are mediocre students—provided they can persuade a college to admit them. Mediocre students are being given a chance to become “late bloomers.” Loans, however, are expected to be repaid, and mediocre high school students with bad credit ratings are likely to default on their loans, causing serious financial problems for themselves and financial complications for the American economy. Targeting loans to students with good prospects for repaying them is more prudent financially and makes more sense educationally.     

Why information and transparency about electricity matter: Fragmentation of governance and accountability under New Public Management

From 1995, Australian governments pursued efficiency benefits arising from significant structural reforms in the Electricity Supply Industry, including corporatisation and regulation of network monopolies, and introduction of competition for generators and for retailers. The restructure was motivated by the ideology of New Public Management and influenced by the field of neoliberal economics. More than two decades later, prices paid for electricity by residential and commercial customers have escalated sharply, resulting in sustained anger from all consumers. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Chair has admitted that ‘The National Electricity Market is largely broken’. This article documents the reduction in public access to information about electricity supply, the fragmentation in responsibility and accountability for consumer outcomes, and the consequences of these changes for transparency, industry operation, and retail electricity prices. New research enabled the creation of a database of Queensland energy production, consumption, and prices; this facilitated a fresh analysis of Queensland electricity sector performance since the restructure of electricity supply.     

Blondejokes.com: The New Generation

The ‘sexy dumb blonde’ stereotype, which emerged in American popular culture during the Twentieth century, is one of the most salient themes of contemporary Internet humor. In this paper, we analyze the new generation of online blonde jokes, claiming that they incorporate three main features. First, in relation to the blonde image itself, we find that stupidity has superseded promiscuity as the main theme of Internet-based blonde jokes. Second, in relation to the spread of the jokes, we describe the globalization of the blonde joke on the Internet, and its translation into numerous languages. Finally, we portray the emergence of “Meta blonde” jokes—texts that build on the popularity and familiarity of the audience with the blonde joke genre in order to comment and reflect on it, yet in so doing, cunningly reinforce old stereotypes.     

The China Code

China is evolving—it is becoming modern and international—but its trajectory will never intersect with the West’s. Fortunes have waxed and waned over thousands of years, but Chinese civilization has remained apart. Enduring fundamentals—morality rooted in stability, anti-individualism and a micro-analytic, balance-obsessed worldview—both fuel contemporary growth and preclude China’s ascendance as a superpower capable of projecting values abroad. A unifying “Confucian Conflict” between trenchant ambition and diffused anxiety also explains the actions and attitudes of ordinary Chinese people. This “street level” article articulates an “insecure or safe” continuum of twelve quintessentially behavioral characteristics that are observed in all realms of contemporary life including diplomacy, business, consumer behavior and social structure. They are: Ritualistic Observation, Robotic Depersonalization, Hierarchical Regimentation, Anxious Self-protection, Trust Facilitation, Pragmatic Elasticity, Incremental Progression, Released Repression, Confidence Projection, Epic Ambition, Scaled Mobilization and Joyful Celebration.     

‘Lending by numbers’: credit scoring and the constitution of risk within American consumer credit

Abstract

This paper examines how statistical credit-scoring technologies, sanctioned by the state in the interests of promoting equality, became applied by lenders to the problem of controlling levels of default within American consumer credit. However, these technologies, constituting consumers as ‘risks’, are themselves seen to be problematic, subject to their own conceived sets of methodological, procedural and temporal risks. Nevertheless, as this article will show, such technologies have increasingly been applied to other areas of consumer lending, thus interpreting a wider array of operational contingencies in terms of risk. Finally, it is argued that, since the 1980s, the constitution of credit consumers as risks has been deployed to new ends through technologies of ‘profit scoring’ and new practices of ‘risk pricing’.     

Bush, China, Taiwan: A triangular analysis

This paper reexamines American policy toward China, Taiwan, and their ambivalent bilateral relationship, focusing on the period since Washington’s shift from strong (but not unconditional) support of Nationalist China to the role of balancer in the early 1970s, particularly on the most recent period under George W. Bush. We analyze the relationship from a strategic triangular perspective. The China-Taiwan-US relationship is triangular in the sense that each actor’s relations with the other two depend on its relations with the third. It is strategic in its focus on security. The United States has been the consistent “pivot” of this triangle, having better relations with both “wings” than they have with each other. Washington has retained this structurally advantageous position partly because of its disproportionate strategic weight, and partly because of the inherent difficulties Taipei and Beijing have had forging a cooperative bilateral relationship. This structure has been quite stable since the Cold War, as Washington has periodically shifted its balance from one wing to the other without altering the triangle’s basic configuration. Yet so long as the configuration is maintained, the basic problem on which the triangle is based — the contested independence of Taiwan — cannot be resolved. This creates a sense of national identity frustration that will continue to generate attempts at resolution, either by Taiwan’s declaration of independence or China’s forced reunification (or both). editor ofAsian Survey, has written or editedSino-Soviet Normalization and Its International Implications (1992),China’s Quest for National Identity (with Samuel Kim, 1993), and many other analyses of Chinese domestic and foreign policy. His most recent book (with Haruhiro Fukui and Peter N.S. Lee) isInformal Politics in East Asia (Cambridge, 2000).     

Off balance: The unintended consequences of fiscal federalism in China

This paper argues that neither the developmental state nor the marketpreserving federalism models are applicable to contemporary China. Despite superficial similarities with elements of each model, the political economy of reform in China violates key assumptions and expectations in both. In contrast to the expectations of the developmental state model, the center has not systematically allocated credit to the most productive sectors of the economy; instead the latter has had to rely on informal finance. And in contrast to the expectations of market-preserving federalism, fiscal decentralization has lead to a host of unintended consequences at the local level—namely, the hoarding of off-budget revenues for public goods provision, reliance on informal finance for private sector development, and local protectionism. These unintended and informal coping strategies depart substantially from the core components of both the developmental state and market-preserving federalism models. At present, China’s financial order is very chaotic. For example, a lot of funds have been lost through off-budgetary channels and systems. It is quite common for [local governments and agencies] to wantonly collect fees and fines, to levy various charges, and to set up “little money lockers” without authorization... Such chaotic situations have not only seriously affected the government in exercising macro-economic regulations and control over fiscal revenues, and disrupted the unity in our national administrative order, but also provided an environment and conditions for corrupt behavior. —President Jiang Zemin, January 2001¹ the author ofBack-Alley Banking: Private Entrepreneurs in China (Cornell University Press, 2002). The earliest version of this paper was presented at the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Washington D.C.